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The Science of Second up Betting.
Our live and free triple headers is on again today around Australia.
Many horses are media favourites, some-times odds on after a good first up performance, only to run poorly 2nd up.
Why?
Let’s put this in lay-man’s terms.
If you are 30-40-50-60 years old and after a long break, you play one of your favourite games, first up.
It may be cricket, soccer, tennis, squash, running or such.
You will surprise your-self and put in a jolly good showing.
However 3-4 days later you practically cannot walk and are sore for many more days.
It is the same with a horse, they run well, but are sore for the next 10 days, go well down in fitness and then need another 10 more days to
catch up and pass their first up fitness levels.
But media jumps in and their prices are way under to their fitness levels.
Bet in between these periods and you are at a bigger risk of losing.
If you use a 2nd up short priced horse as you think “this has to win” as your standout, so you lay another horse; you are in serious trouble.
In Australia 2nd up horse recover in around 20 days and in the UK it is closer to 30 days plus because of different training programs.
I have explained this science of winning 2nd up to many trainers.
What they need to do is firstly work on re building a horses blood count with Iron, B12/B15 injections and folic acid or
similar type additives they use.
The horse will lose weight after its good first up run, so its strength factors are down, they need to re build that and then start on getting the horse
fitter then after another 14 days.
2yo these rules does not apply when they start racing, they are injury free, it is all new to them and they only just want to run.
I hope this helps your 2nd up betting, best rule is stay out.
The media say it will be fitter, they are wrong, it is less fit.
Regards
James
Our live and free triple headers is on again today around Australia.
Many horses are media favourites, some-times odds on after a good first up performance, only to run poorly 2nd up.
Why?
Let’s put this in lay-man’s terms.
If you are 30-40-50-60 years old and after a long break, you play one of your favourite games, first up.
It may be cricket, soccer, tennis, squash, running or such.
You will surprise your-self and put in a jolly good showing.
However 3-4 days later you practically cannot walk and are sore for many more days.
It is the same with a horse, they run well, but are sore for the next 10 days, go well down in fitness and then need another 10 more days to
catch up and pass their first up fitness levels.
But media jumps in and their prices are way under to their fitness levels.
Bet in between these periods and you are at a bigger risk of losing.
If you use a 2nd up short priced horse as you think “this has to win” as your standout, so you lay another horse; you are in serious trouble.
In Australia 2nd up horse recover in around 20 days and in the UK it is closer to 30 days plus because of different training programs.
I have explained this science of winning 2nd up to many trainers.
What they need to do is firstly work on re building a horses blood count with Iron, B12/B15 injections and folic acid or
similar type additives they use.
The horse will lose weight after its good first up run, so its strength factors are down, they need to re build that and then start on getting the horse
fitter then after another 14 days.
2yo these rules does not apply when they start racing, they are injury free, it is all new to them and they only just want to run.
I hope this helps your 2nd up betting, best rule is stay out.
The media say it will be fitter, they are wrong, it is less fit.
Regards
James
Show More
I don't quite understand what is going on. You are watching horses and judging their fitness levels based on how they look? How can you be as accurate as to say they are 96% fit.
30 years of rating starting in 1987 on horses and 1959 on greyhounds.
GCW, it's simple, he is completely barmy and makes up all the figures he quotes, he never shows any proof.
Sal, 2 and 6 look in great condition, noticed a slight limp on n/s of No. 1 so lay that for $1,000
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS, I said No. 1 was a lay, that's 25 out of 26 lays that I won on today
worcester
la Cap 16 broke and disqualified, sugar the trots.
la Cap 16 broke and disqualified, sugar the trots.
salsubry could be next.
so far in Hong Kong 2 - 3 look ok
so far in Hong Kong 2 - 3 look ok
salisbury
Best top line result today was $3,400 / 1,700 pounds from my top 5 fittest in the yard finished 1-2-3-4
Best top line result today was $3,400 / 1,700 pounds from my top 5 fittest in the yard finished 1-2-3-4
Still working on my 2 movies scripts for Hollywood, a cowdie and a strange comedy, of course.
Our Hong Kong pool will be at 8 - 9 million pounds for next race.
?? no but will later mate, near pill and pillow time for me 12.12am here.
Happy Valley results
Worcester 5 each so far looks ok, havent see others in the market yet
Worcester 5 each so far looks ok, havent see others in the market yet
Happy valley results
missed its that damn sweat up tricks me.
missed its that damn sweat up tricks me.
STOP IT NOW JIM AND GO TO BED, NURSEY WILL BE ALONG TO TUCK YOU IN SOON.
ZOON
a combining form meaning “animal,” “organism” of the kind specified by the initial element, often corresponding to zoological class names ending in -zoa, with -zoon used to name a single member of such a class: protozoon.
i'm close?
a combining form meaning “animal,” “organism” of the kind specified by the initial element, often corresponding to zoological class names ending in -zoa, with -zoon used to name a single member of such a class: protozoon.
i'm close?
LOON
a mad person from Australia who boasts fantastic profits but shows no proof.
a mad person from Australia who boasts fantastic profits but shows no proof.
salisbury
in the yard at salisbury but wont get off the 8!
it so but 2nd up
in the yard at salisbury but wont get off the 8!
it so but 2nd up
Salis results
8 wins, at 7/2, top run and raced all over the place last 200 yards, Power of Darkness, try again and will improve
with race experience and hold that nice fitness levels
thanks punters c u another night.
James
8 wins, at 7/2, top run and raced all over the place last 200 yards, Power of Darkness, try again and will improve
with race experience and hold that nice fitness levels
thanks punters c u another night.
James
i have worn out my mouse hand in my wrist, so have to changed hands
such is life
such is life
You may well laugh Vivian, this is serious, its like the wrist didnt want to be used by me!
nottingham results
4-6-3, gotta get on the board. bit rushed
4-6-3, gotta get on the board. bit rushed
Hamilton park next, time for a bowl of porridge,, its 3am here.
Ill have to go back to my right hand mouse on Saturday for my triple header or will miss half the races.
5 minutes left hand, 5 minutes right, then switch back again.
6 in the last lost because a 3yo filly taking on older horses. not strong enough yet
results
2-1-3, black book the 1 axe axelrod who did his best work at the finish as raced ungenerously.
2-1-3, black book the 1 axe axelrod who did his best work at the finish as raced ungenerously.
this is as exciting as watching grass grow at the moment, bed time soon
Loading at Tippery, no luck seing them tonight, it's like the God are against me or with me?
hamilton park results and bed time thanks.
3 wins at 2/1 thanks, James
3 wins at 2/1 thanks, James
NO more too tired, 340 horses to rate in fitness % tomorrow, sorry punters.
Good evening punters football over and now todays results.
I have injured my mouse hand from too much net work and last few days using my left hand.
Using 4 screens it was not easy to navigate all day and resulted in a loss of
concentration and a lay getting up which costs us $7,000 in costs but we returned
on a day when most of Australia lost a return of $35,500 for a costs of $13,500 to show a healthy profit of $22,000 11,000 pounds, back again wednesday
Thanks James
I have injured my mouse hand from too much net work and last few days using my left hand.
Using 4 screens it was not easy to navigate all day and resulted in a loss of
concentration and a lay getting up which costs us $7,000 in costs but we returned
on a day when most of Australia lost a return of $35,500 for a costs of $13,500 to show a healthy profit of $22,000 11,000 pounds, back again wednesday
Thanks James
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