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19 Jun 18
21:52
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Date Joined:
08 Aug 02
I must be missing something here but why isn't this clear favourite for the queen mary? No idea how good the american horse is, and maybe that's the answer to my question, but good look to here resisting the clive cox fillies turn of foot in the closing stages....
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just checked the clive cox form, not great
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Lewisham,
Draw is not good |
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I find it hard to get heavily involved in any of the 2yo races where Wesley has a runner. Very hard to get a handle on the American form.
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Not a betting race for me as there are too many imponderables, the French filly from the same stable that won the race last year must be well thought of and Henry Candy rarely aims high unless they have shown adequate promise, they will be the two I will be watching out for
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I wonder if the draw is even more relevant on the round course. I think if you are trapped out wide there it's almost impossible to win, whereas on the straight course the draw bias tends to move around over the course of the meeting.
what worries me more about Clive Cox is the stable form, as also think his Konchek is an ideal type for Royal Ascot and would like to back that as well. In the past I wouldn't have been concerned about Stable form but think about it a bit more these days. For example was quite tempted to back this Tip To Win today but the stable form put me off, sure enough he never looked like winning. Cox horses have been running dismally of late and that really puts me off. |
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I've had a tenner win/place on a rank outsider, Red Buttons @ 100
Not expecting him to win, but might run into a place  |
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her
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Red balloons you mean?
wouldn't surprise me if an outsider ran well or even won. It's a two year old race and anything can happen. None of the favourites look utterly convincing to me, well shades of blue does but like I say the trainer form is extremely worrying. |
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Sorry Red Balloons, thanks Lewisham
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lot of money for shades of blue but the stable form has put me off.
it will probably **** up now |
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So Perfect seems the nicest on breeding. Could be a nice price
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£20,000 horse pips a £1/2 million rag
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Kirby a bit unlucky there didn’t have anything else to race with....
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shocking aftertiming I know but had two bets in the end, £40 on the useless yank horse and £4.60 on the winner
 anyway Shades of blue ran well enough so that leads me to believe that the lovely looking KONCHEK will the Norfolk (I won't pop up with an aftertime if an outsider wins.) |
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I’d get on now lewisham before the mass drift on the Ward horse!!
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Wards wont drift in the Norfolk tomorrow. It will be smashed up by those in the know and it should win. It's 10-15L better than anything else he has based on the Newmarket gallops it's done and it left Lady Aurelia 8L in it's last gallop. Be absolutely amazed if it gets beat.
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Yes Jack don't think Ward will do much at Ascot this year
Don't get the same vibe about his horses this time, you don't sense the same confidence Ok I understand Konchek was beaten last time but had a tough draw. Just sometimes you get struck by the way a horse looks and you think it screams royal ascot and that's the thought I get with this fellow. Now I see Shades of Blue has run well that has taken away the worry about the stable form. that was the only thing that put me off backing her tbh. |
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domino14 20 Jun 18 14:54 Joined: 28 Jan 18 | Topic/replies: 1,051 | Blogger: domino14's blog
Wards wont drift in the Norfolk tomorrow. It will be smashed up by those in the know and it should win. It's 10-15L better than anything else he has based on the Newmarket gallops it's done and it left Lady Aurelia 8L in it's last gallop. Be absolutely amazed if it gets beat. Interesting comments... where is this info coming from?  |
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Not often that York fillies listed race throws up a Royal Ascot winner.
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I done the photo's on his gallops, all three gallops since they came to Newmarket. They worked the July Course last week. Previously worked the Al Bahathri.
Shang Shang Shang is lightning, worked in a trio with Lady Aurelia and another horse that we weren't given the name of. Shang Shang Shang was 8L clear of LA, with about 3 lengths to the other horse (wore blinkers, chestnut, gelding, white front left foot) who sat second. This filly just came upsides 2f from us, and blitzed clear, Joel couldn't pull her up, LA was eased last 50 yards but this filly was streets better. A mate of mine timed it, and had it about 56 seconds, so the gallop was a good indication. This filly tomorrow has a serious turn of foot. |
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wow, thanks for that info domino.
barton you are right but it's still a decent race, so it's easy to say in hindsight but it seemed a bit too big before the race in terms of price. |
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BB - Ceiling Kitty did the same double a few years ago. 20/1 x2.
Patience Alexander beat Tiggy Wiggy in it a couple of years later. They both got placed at Ascot. |
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The placed horses from the York race finished 17th and 19th today mind. It's ordinary form in the general scheme of things. I reckon the winner improved markedly today.
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have backed konchek with a small saver on shang shang shang.
respect what domino was saying about her, but at the same time I don't think it's a good idea to get too carried away with what horses are doing at home. Besides Lady Aurelia seems to have lost interest in her racing now so I'm not sure what beating her at home really means. Anyway really like Konchek so don't see the need to desert him especially when market confidence is there.  |
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Barton Bank 20 Jun 18 15:34 Joined: 31 Jul 01 | Topic/replies: 8,116 | Blogger: Barton Bank's blog
The placed horses from the York race finished 17th and 19th today mind. It's ordinary form in the general scheme of things. I reckon the winner improved markedly today. think she performed to around 108 109 today, as a complete guess, don't think it was a great queen mary tbh, they all finished in a heap. that sort of rating would be slightly in excess of what her half-siblings achieved, so she's very well bred. Also she was a strong finisher at york so was clearly going to be suited by the stiffer track. |
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I'll be amazed if she's ran to 108/109. That would be the highest figure in a Queen Mary for some time !
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would it? what do they normally run to?
to be honest what I know about ratings you could write on the back of a postage stamp. maybe I was thinking of racing post ratings, anyway I guess she ran to a level slightly below the level of an average queen mary winner. shades of blue came there to win the race and if she had been good enough she would have won comfortably but she flattened out final furlong. |
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Highest recorded 2yo before this week was Legends Of War at 101, Highest filly was Fairyland 98 last time out.
Ascot races normally rate ok because of times, but seldom do 2yos this time of year esp fillies run above 105. For what it's worth I have the winner running to 92 today. She undoubtedly will get a higher hcp than that, but it doesn't mean she's achieved more than that. She ran 91 at York, and the 3rd home Shades Of Blue ran 85 on debut, and Gossamer Wings only ran 83 last time, whilst the 4th So Perfect debuted 83, before running 88 next time. She is beaten about a length in 4th, which at 3lb a length, means if she has mirrored her last run, then the winner has mirrored her York run, and the 2nd and 3rd have improved. Servalen in 6th ran to 95 last time but the drop to 5f didn't suit her and she was outpaced today. She's beaten 1.25L today and still run to 88, which is respectable. 92 would be one of the lowest Queen Mary figures in recent years but doesn't fair badly behind Heartache 99, Lady Aurelia 98, Acapulco 99, Anthem Alexander 102, Rizeena 101, Ceiling Kitty 96, and Best Terms 95. It should be noted, despite visually impressive Lady Aurelia or Acapulco did not put up impressive figures. I have this years 1L worse than Best Terms and Ceiling Kitty, and around 2L worse than Acapulco, Heartache and Lady Aurelia and around 3L slower than the best Queen Mary's in recent years won by Rizeena and Anthem Alexander. Flasy Wings in 2005 was the last filly to put up a smart figure running to 109, which would have been some 6-7L better than today's renewal. |
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lady aurelia only 98 official bha rating after the queen mary? really? where are you getting these figures from may I ask?
hardly seems to equate with the fact that she smashed the field by half the track, and achieved a topspeed rating of 115 and a racing post rating of 123.... |
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That was her performance figure, the time was actually slow.
I use the same figures the BHA do. It was nearly 1.2 seconds slower than standard. Plus the race was desperate. The field was full of 85-90 rated 2yo fillies. Granted she looked impressive but she ran a slow time. |
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where do you get the bha figures from? I went on their website just now and tried typing some horses into the search and nothing came up, it seemed useless.
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I pay a former BHA handicapper for use of their speed / performance ratings figure software. It's the same system the handicappers at the BHA have access to. The ratings are not that often too dissimilar to RPR.
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so their ratings aren't available to the public?
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Nowhere near 108 for me. Too much of a bunch finish. Timeform provisional rating on race passes is 102 fwiw.Though obviously subject to revision.
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No Lewisham, when a horse gets allotted an official mark, it's published in the racing calendar.
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and where can you view the racing calendar?
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It's a publication by Weatherby's, every Tuesday. But 2yo's don't get rated until August 1st, unless they have finished in the first 4 and ran three times and then, they will be given a handicap mark when entered in a nursery.
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Worrying drift on this one tomorrow dom....
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Don't worry about the future. Or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing bubble gum. The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never crossed your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4 p.m. on some idle Tuesday.”
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