Why is laying favs so damn hard?

Some professionals only punt in June HTH

Maria Lay Spreadsheet

june is a bad time for the books,but with the greatest respect to the OP he is trying to beat betfair,instead of treating betfair as his friend that marks his card every day,who cares if the lose 40 quid on betfair laying the favs if they have a phone  that can call another bookie and take 10 times as much,because believe me betfair will take your money ,all you have to do is take it back of someone else ,and betfair are giving you the winners.
just have a mate in a bookie shop with a phone and stop after you win a few hundred and move to another bookie,but make sure and place a small amount on betfair for the software to kick in and detect your style of play,and then you will love betfair because as i say it gives you loads of winners.
Candy from a baby as they say.

Best way to play that game, brass, is to use excel to track both the bf market and the betting shows just before the off, flagging up when there's a significant discrepancy. Plenty of opportunities then.

pier to pear sight

hth

I just sayed as much on the burkey fred

There's plenty of opportunities at BSP but only for backing. At 25 of 50 favs per day are profitable to back at BSP, 22 are breakeven, 3 are good lays.

i believe the only way to win is to completely take your own logic and reason out of it
rely on your computer system and just place the bets at whatever price or conditions it tells you to
if it's made/lost money in the past, it will make/lose money again in the future

tanglefoot • June 6, 2018 10:19 PM BST
Gaze,in your search for the grail,try this, every race from 5f to 6f,lay every odds on favourite, report back,over and out, GL

this is a simple laying system which will be profitable over X
you can probably even use a rating system to make it even more profitable by taking out the more positive areas, such as only focusing on 2 and 3 year old races

the human brain will always try and make things hard for itself

find your system and play it. that's your edge. stop second guessing it

betfair know the winners(or tryers)before the race starts,but if you decide to lay every fav on betfair it will not be long before you go into the red,but you must keep laying them for the system to work.but just for tiny stakes,and at the same time ring your mate in the bookie office and tell him to back the same horse for larger stakes,and every time betfair takes money of you ,you are taking it of someone else.its so simple,and i can hear everyone saying "now why did i not think of that" but there are much better holy grail's if you sit down and think about it.
now "have a cup of tea and think about the situation i just described and something interesting just might dawn in the clever minds of the sharks who read this post"

I am sure this is what a lot of power betfair users and very clever people do......

they set up a bot to place lays on odds-on chances in 5 to 6 furlongs, set a reasonable stake and bank size, leave it for a year and they come back and their robot will have made a profit for them. however big or small, profit is profit, and it can be made for doing very little work, an initial investment  and that's it, and it WILL make money no matter the timeframe. it just will

it's boring but making money sometimes is boring. the thrill that most gamblers look for is opposite to how you make money long-term

your brain is probably just not set up correctly yet to profit from horse racing but it is possible don't let anyone tell you otherwise

ok you may have missed the point of 23:05

^ brass

why only sprints b_m?

we better let this thread drop or mobile phones will be banned in all bookie offices

A quick system I just wrote

Flat/Aw
5-7.5furlongs
XSP odds

odds

the illuminati don't want me to post it

Jun 6, 2018 -- 11:23PM, mouse muldoon wrote:

why only sprints b_m?

the shorter distances seem to get the odds-on beat more . that's what the data says

system

price 1.95 max
5 to 7.5 furlongs
field size max 10

-7.00% roi over 1000 bets

1410 ripon - eyeloom
1420 yarmouth - blonde warrior
1500 haydock - soldiers call

boring system but it will make money

all lays obviously

max age of 3*

it won't make money if you post it on here for very long.

sounds to me like you are back fitting random variables

it is backfitted but not random
how else do you make a system ?

The parameters are random unless you can explain why 1.95 is a magic limit or the same with 10 runners.

I've seen patterns change that have been constant for 7/8 years over thousands of selections. Most were just random and some were probably eroded when an edge seemed apparent.

did you know that if i tell you to think of a number between 1 and 20 ,and you think for a few seconds and then say the number,the strange thing about this is that you think you consciously selected the number ,but its a proven fact that the sub conscious mind has selected the number at least 7 seconds before the conscious  has worked out which number you will pick,and the sub conscious mind has already instructed the conscious to select the same number.
and we think we make conscious decisions when most times its the sub conscious instructing the conscious.
so its not surprising that we keep doing the same bets and expect different results.
so guys train the sub conscious before you gamble.

anyone who sits at a gambling site all day long, day after day will notice patterns on betting that will give them an edge,provided the take notice of the market movements ,and not just look at their own selection.

it's no good following once the herd have grazed.

a combination of all the edges you pick up can be harnessed into a system of your own that nobody can copy.the biggest problem with gamblers is they never sit down and focus on their gambling habits,and if they did they would make it pay.

Joined: 09 Apr 11 | Topic/replies: 302 | Blogger: invicta's blog
Maria Lay Spreadsheet


Ah Yes we all loved Maria I got on really well with her 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziLbPxHaWDA

you are where you are right now ,so get a new book,sit down ,have a cup of tea and write down all the idea's you have to get the perfect system.all you need is one system the works,then pick a goal and write it down ,20 grand sounds nice,and then give yourself a full year to win it.
then when you keep your books or records of your gambling work from week to week.Nobody can win every day,so you have a full week to closer to the 20 grand(this stops you chasing)but each day try to get closer to your goal.
the biggest tip of all and the best tip i can give is to enjoy the journey ,and it does not matter what size your available to bet bet balance is,just take your time and creep until your can walk,you will be up and  running soon.but you must enjoy the journey.you know you can do it,start NOW.

Let's make it happen. Booyakasha

Gregski Baby

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwkbEqge_Jw

Thanks brassic i'll give it a go

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Races	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	Lay(Plc)	ROI(L Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
ALL	2441	442	18.11	-139.91	2247	19.67	-5.73	203.56	8.34	-1.24	1038	166.4	6.82	-319.05	-4.78	14.86	1.1	5.05	400.88	5.21
2018	59	13	22.03	9.69	56	23.21	16.42	16.3	27.63	-4.06	36	27.46	46.55	-31.27	-27.99	10.13	1.27	0.9	10.24	5.28
2017	200	46	23	25.11	184	25	12.56	73.16	36.58	-3.91	91	6.9	3.45	-18.45	-3.72	12.88	1.28	3.39	36	4.89
2016	200	35	17.5	-14.85	186	18.82	-7.43	21.47	10.73	-1.53	81	0.39	0.19	-12.62	-2.33	13.92	1.08	0.27	32.31	5.29
2015	196	42	21.43	23.66	183	22.95	12.07	65.33	33.33	-4.98	94	17.61	9.03	-28.9	-7.48	9.66	1.13	0.78	37.16	5.23
2014	215	40	18.6	-37.83	202	19.8	-17.6	-24.72	-11.5	0.25	96	76.02	35.36	-92.23	-15.03	15.83	1.03	0.03	38.99	4.43
2013	329	52	15.81	-121.89	298	17.45	-37.05	-108.1	-32.86	1.8	118	-46.03	-13.99	26.8	2.89	15.41	0.95	0.16	54.68	3.98
2012	130	24	18.46	-17.79	126	19.05	-13.68	-11.1	-8.54	0.06	57	22.6	17.38	-31.28	-10.73	10.9	1.16	0.63	20.69	4.68
2011	279	46	16.49	1.54	252	18.25	0.55	37.22	13.34	-1.27	115	16.96	6.08	-34.68	-3.82	18.81	1.12	0.73	40.96	6.1
2010	298	55	18.46	14.51	279	19.71	4.87	38.97	13.08	-1.54	121	2.69	0.9	-21	-2.49	15.33	1.21	2.45	45.29	5.71
2009	342	68	19.88	20.26	307	22.15	5.92	102.45	29.96	-2.85	160	48.33	14.13	-69.55	-7.63	14.94	1.16	1.84	58.55	5.33
2008	193	21	10.88	-42.32	174	12.07	-21.93	-7.41	-3.84	-0.29	69	-6.51	-3.37	-5.87	-0.91	18.73	0.81	1.12	26.01	7.18

is this a cistern

gazey headed for straitjacket.

for all the talk about staking plans

if you can't make a profit at level stakes then get out of the game

your edge should be good enough so that you can bet the same amount on every bet (liability) and come out with profit

When Laying Favs. Well over the years ive noticed one thing "They Are Fav for a reason!" VERY selective laying is my advice( and I do mean VERY selective) . Mainly on the All weather morning Fav drifters. Goodluck!

Any fool staked u yet

built a system last night based on the 3 year max, 10 field size, odds on fav

1 from 1 today layed eyelool - looks very robust

pm me if you want the full details

I'm so excited

and you just can't hide it

so 9 runners and you'd have missed it bm

11 even lol

you should have layed mine 2.10 rip

Jun 7, 2018 -- 3:16PM, stridingedge wrote:

so 9 runners and you'd have missed it bm

most 2-3 year old races are 10 runners max anyway but there is no field size set now

try savannah 4.40 ripon rpr rated 83

bettingmasta

the point I'm making or trying to make is anyone with a half decent database can find apparent systems that show a profit when x=a,yor =c etc etc but there really is in nearly every case no reason why it's nothing more than a random distribution of variables that happen to have shown a profit.

'With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.'
Attributed to John von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in "A meeting with Enrico Fermi" in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann

In other words, don't get excited just because you've examined a set of results and picked out some criteria (or 'parameters') which turn a profit. All that means is that your set of results isn't big enough. Go back further with the results, and you'll find you'll need more and more criteria and restrictions to find a profit. Eventually you will always reach a point where you simply run out of restrictions to make a system profitable. If you haven't reached that point yet, then you simply haven't looked at enough results.

stride is right variation daily

I believe the OP has left this building, not sure who everyone is replying too...

screaming makes a very valid point however if like me you're addicted to systems you realise that the variables are essential as otherwise the criteria would be too simple and there are very few profitable systems with simplistic criteria.

To the opening poster: It's all to do with a positive mental attitude, and simply by the posting of your concern you are adding negative energy to an already existing problem. Remember, at the point of singularity, when the whole billions and billions of stars in the galaxy collapsed in to a point not bigger than the smallest atom, and the whole lot went 'Boooooooom', well, after billions of years, we have all expanded but we are still one. I am one with the horse winning the next at Kempton or Carlisel, and when I want to win, I simply connect with the horses' energy and vibration, which is the same as mine cos we were one many years ago, and I win. Easy peasy, lemon squeasy.

Jun 7, 2018 -- 5:13PM, screaming from beneaththewaves wrote:

'With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk.'Attributed to John von Neumann by Enrico Fermi, as quoted by Freeman Dyson in "A meeting with Enrico Fermi" in Nature 427 (22 January 2004) p. 297https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_von_NeumannIn other words, don't get excited just because you've examined a set of results and picked out some criteria (or 'parameters') which turn a profit. All that means is that your set of results isn't big enough. Go back further with the results, and you'll find you'll need more and more criteria and restrictions to find a profit. Eventually you will always reach a point where you simply run out of restrictions to make a system profitable. If you haven't reached that point yet, then you simply haven't looked at enough results.

i've looked at over 1000 races now. the strike rate is 40-50% but the odds are under 1.99. laying every runner will make a profit, simple as that. racing is predictable and doesn't change that much.

Jun 7, 2018 -- 6:43PM, posy wrote:

screaming makes a very valid point however if like me you're addicted to systems you realise that the variables are essential as otherwise the criteria would be too simple and there are very few profitable systems with simplistic criteria.

this^
the variables are not random

2 to 3 year olds on the flat and all weather who are odds on win at maximum 50%
if you're backing at average odds of 1.75 you are losing money
it really is just simple mathematics

Doesn't all this prove that dutching is the best? Christ! How many idiots are on this forum, and beating blood more that corpse not to understand that?

there are a few people on here with good insight but way too many cynics and people who lose, skeptics, whatever you want to call them, naysayers -- the real idiots are the ones who tell you it can't be done when you're already doing it

've looked at over 1000 races now. the strike rate is 40-50% but the odds are under 1.99

Big spread between 40% and 50%   Why not just give the exact %  ?

Why should a thousand races be the magic number? Why not one hundred? Or ten thousand? This is important, because the rules you have to apply to create a profit will change each time.

And racing simply does not stay the same. The schedules, plans, pedigrees, training methods, personalities, betting markets are constantly evolving. Never mind the fact that you have no idea whatsoever whether the backers and layers whose opinions are currently determining the odds are as shrewd or stupid as the ones responsible for the odds in the past.

2 to 3 year olds on the flat and all weather who are odds on win at maximum 50%

How can anyone who comes out with such rubbish be taken seriously.

2/3 year olds at less than bsp evens win 59/60 % of the time

Jun 7, 2018 -- 8:39PM, screaming from beneaththewaves wrote:

Why should a thousand races be the magic number? Why not one hundred? Or ten thousand? This is important, because the rules you have to apply to create a profit will change each time.And racing simply does not stay the same. The schedules, plans, pedigrees, training methods, personalities, betting markets are constantly evolving. Never mind the fact that you have no idea whatsoever whether the backers and layers whose opinions are currently determining the odds are as shrewd or stupid as the ones responsible for the odds in the past.

blah blah blah

you do you

In my opinion, there are no backing/laying systems that successful over the long term per se, but there are golden rules that should be followed in betting.

The only way to make it pay pre-race (and the majority fail) is through discipline, a lot of study, selective betting and a reasonable size bank, no more. Good luck.

that are successful

Too early for typing

betting_masta    07 Jun 18 20:03 
2 to 3 year olds on the flat and all weather who are odds on win at maximum 50%
if you're backing at average odds of 1.75 you are losing money
it really is just simple mathematics

WTAF!

Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
4325	2348	54.29	-226.4	78.29	54.3	-5.23	-168.24	-3.89	-0.73	3575	82.87	-58.17	-1.35	1.81	0.98	1.88	2392.8	1.75

justification all over the place

Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
4325	2348	54.29	-226.4	78.29	54.3	-5.23	-168.24	-3.89	-0.73	3575	82.87	-58.17	-1.35	1.81	0.98	1.88	2392.8	1.75

flat/aw
odds 1.62 -1.99 (avg odds 1.75)
2&3yo

above were avg win odds

below average odds overall...

Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
5529	3127	56.56	-273.83	79.67	56.57	-4.95	-199.58	-3.61	-0.87	4651	84.44	-44.25	-0.8	1.75	0.98	2	3178.95	1.68

both sets show no profit for the backer or layer.

betting masta

The 5-6f lay all odds on YOU WILL DEFINITELY MAKE MONEY assertion a couple of days ago.

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
ALL	2646	1566	59.18	-161.68	80.57	59.18	-6.11	-141.7	-5.36	2.17	2256	85.78	-19.21	-0.73	1.67	0.97	4.75	1620.63	1.59
2018	96	59	61.46	-5.34	82.29	61.46	-5.56	-4.01	-4.17	0.72	86	89.58	3.86	4.02	1.61	0.97	0.18	61	1.54
2017	243	142	58.44	-16.38	80.66	58.44	-6.74	-14.99	-6.17	3.26	209	86.36	-0.01	0	1.68	0.97	0.43	146.98	1.6
2016	229	130	56.77	-19.27	79.48	56.77	-8.41	-17.93	-7.83	5.58	196	85.96	-0.37	-0.16	1.68	0.94	1.45	138.91	1.61
2015	212	126	59.43	-2.14	77.83	59.43	-1.01	-7.88	-3.72	-0.37	175	82.94	-11.91	-5.64	1.68	0.98	0.13	128.57	1.67
2014	324	203	62.65	-4.85	85.49	62.65	-1.5	-2.19	-0.68	-4.76	287	89.69	7	2.19	1.65	1.01	0.08	200.53	1.57
2013	314	191	60.83	-16.56	80.89	60.83	-5.27	-11.17	-3.56	-0.42	270	86.54	-0.06	-0.02	1.66	0.98	0.12	193.98	1.56
2012	240	145	60.42	-10.7	77.92	60.42	-4.46	-9.21	-3.84	-0.04	199	84.32	-4.47	-1.89	1.64	0.97	0.4	149.75	1.58
2011	264	149	56.44	-35.29	79.17	56.44	-13.37	-32.43	-12.28	13.32	226	85.61	-2.76	-1.04	1.64	0.9	4.23	165.18	1.53
2010	232	141	60.78	-10.37	83.19	60.78	-4.47	-5.39	-2.32	-2.32	203	87.5	6.18	2.66	1.68	1	0	140.62	1.57
2009	265	152	57.36	-20.38	80.75	57.36	-7.69	-16.48	-6.22	3.09	224	84.53	-3.87	-1.46	1.7	0.96	0.63	158.34	1.61
2008	227	128	56.39	-20.4	77.53	56.39	-8.99	-20.05	-8.83	7.01	181	80.8	-12.81	-5.72	1.69	0.94	1.41	136.77	1.61

look at the rogue year in 2011 can you explain this? a total misfit and big outlier among the sample.

If you take it out...

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
ALL	2382	1417	59.49	-126.39	80.73	59.49	-5.31	-109.28	-4.59	1	2030	85.8	-16.46	-0.7	1.67	0.97	2.61	1455.45	1.59
2018	96	59	61.46	-5.34	82.29	61.46	-5.56	-4.01	-4.17	0.72	86	89.58	3.86	4.02	1.61	0.97	0.18	61	1.54
2017	243	142	58.44	-16.38	80.66	58.44	-6.74	-14.99	-6.17	3.26	209	86.36	-0.01	0	1.68	0.97	0.43	146.98	1.6
2016	229	130	56.77	-19.27	79.48	56.77	-8.41	-17.93	-7.83	5.58	196	85.96	-0.37	-0.16	1.68	0.94	1.45	138.91	1.61
2015	212	126	59.43	-2.14	77.83	59.43	-1.01	-7.88	-3.72	-0.37	175	82.94	-11.91	-5.64	1.68	0.98	0.13	128.57	1.67
2014	324	203	62.65	-4.85	85.49	62.65	-1.5	-2.19	-0.68	-4.76	287	89.69	7	2.19	1.65	1.01	0.08	200.53	1.57
2013	314	191	60.83	-16.56	80.89	60.83	-5.27	-11.17	-3.56	-0.42	270	86.54	-0.06	-0.02	1.66	0.98	0.12	193.98	1.56
2012	240	145	60.42	-10.7	77.92	60.42	-4.46	-9.21	-3.84	-0.04	199	84.32	-4.47	-1.89	1.64	0.97	0.4	149.75	1.58
2010	232	141	60.78	-10.37	83.19	60.78	-4.47	-5.39	-2.32	-2.32	203	87.5	6.18	2.66	1.68	1	0	140.62	1.57
2009	265	152	57.36	-20.38	80.75	57.36	-7.69	-16.48	-6.22	3.09	224	84.53	-3.87	-1.46	1.7	0.96	0.63	158.34	1.61
2008	227	128	56.39	-20.4	77.53	56.39	-8.99	-20.05	-8.83	7.01	181	80.8	-12.81	-5.72	1.69	0.94	1.41	136.77	1.61

a 1% return over 9 1/2 years with a run of 4 year period seeing negative returns

then there's 20 courses over this period that have actually shown completely the opposite result and a profit for the backer with odds on shots over 5-6f...

Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
1388	891	64.19	30.37	81.84	64.19	2.19	37.67	2.71	-9.82	1207	87.53	18.21	1.32	1.66	1.05	4.87	850.95	1.59

So remove these 20 non profit courses you end up with vastly different outcomes splitting the sample between courses...

	Bets	Wins	Win%	P/L(SP)	Place%	Race%	ROI(SP)	P/L(BF)	ROI(BF)	ROI(L)	Plc(BF)	Plc%(BF)	P/L(Plc)	ROI(BF Plc)	AvgOddBF	BF A/E	BF chi	BFExpWins	AvgWinOdd
ALL	1028	534	51.95	-181.86	78.31	51.95	-17.69	-173.37	-16.86	19.1	853	83.38	-32.92	-3.22	1.67	0.85	36.44	628.35	1.58
2018	35	19	54.29	-7.54	80	54.29	-21.54	-7.01	-20.04	28.36	29	82.86	-1.88	-5.36	1.58	0.83	1.81	22.79	1.45
2017	95	49	51.58	-16.66	75.79	51.58	-17.54	-16.37	-17.23	18.94	79	83.16	-2.77	-2.91	1.7	0.86	2.83	57.03	1.6
2016	96	48	50	-18.46	80.21	50	-19.23	-17.39	-18.12	19.79	82	85.42	-0.46	-0.48	1.7	0.83	3.91	57.49	1.62
2015	94	47	50	-19.09	77.66	50	-20.31	-18.61	-19.8	23.02	75	80.65	-6.44	-6.92	1.68	0.83	4.3	56.83	1.59
2014	120	68	56.67	-12.01	80	56.67	-10.01	-11.22	-9.35	8.06	101	85.59	-2.5	-2.12	1.67	0.92	1.08	73.55	1.59
2013	108	62	57.41	-11.33	81.48	57.41	-10.49	-9.8	-9.07	7.86	92	85.98	-1.55	-1.45	1.66	0.93	0.87	66.72	1.56
2012	88	48	54.55	-12.18	75	54.55	-13.84	-11.27	-12.81	13.98	70	80.46	-5.62	-6.46	1.63	0.87	2.68	55.42	1.58
2011	98	45	45.92	-28.16	77.55	45.92	-28.73	-26.31	-26.85	35.43	82	83.67	-3.01	-3.08	1.64	0.74	11.34	61.15	1.55
2010	100	54	54	-16	79	54	-16	-13.8	-13.8	14.53	84	84	-1.22	-1.22	1.68	0.89	2.07	61.02	1.56
2009	98	44	44.9	-27.23	76.53	44.9	-27.79	-26.46	-27	31.93	81	82.65	-3.6	-3.67	1.71	0.76	8.4	58.1	1.61
2008	96	50	52.08	-13.2	78.13	52.08	-13.75	-15.12	-15.75	17.25	78	81.25	-3.88	-4.04	1.68	0.86	2.97	58.25	1.66

The only stats I am interested in using relate to trainers and how they go about getting winners with campaigning their horses in a certain way. ie what sort of quality they are usually working with, what tracks they send certain types to, how do they get horses handicapped at different ages, do they tend to use different jocks for different purposes etc etc the list goes on.

This is purely for a hunch though a lot of the time and taking a punt on these hunches works to varying degrees. I find the smaller more obscure trainers in the lower classes better to work with as there is much more obvious data for the well known trainers and their patterns and potential preferences are easier discernible so good prices harder to obtain (though of course from a laying perspective this can be favourable, if they don't tend to concentrate in a certain are their horse may still be overbet because of who they are).

There's nothing set in stone and trainers can change what they are doing so it's no good thinking everything in racing remains a constant. It's just a bit of a tool that helps me along with watching races and keeping a notebook and of course looking at the races from a form perspective.


This notion of trying to beat the market by when x=a or when P

^ certain area

This notion of trying to beat the market by when x=a or y=b at price less than z is wrong.

putting in some of these greater or less than signs seems to cut the posts!

Loving your work, Stridingedge. Some interesting stuff on this fred.

my ad,vice would be to lay in running, if starting off not in first 3

Hi striding have you any stats on favs going for 3 consecutive wins in haddicaps by age and weights also stats on favs that are top weights  by age and weights thanks

Also top weights favs in handicaps that by age and weights ? Thanks

you don't want much kev

when i get some time...

Hi striding just thought I would ask as your certainly the man for stats on this site when you get time mate cheers its very much appreciated

kevdartsking--have you tried this site?   http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/

Is Massey back JML

used to be a decent sit that got stopped years ago.

*site

Not sure --never used the site myself.

In the "custom report" section there is tick box for 2018.

Hi JML thanks did try that site but did not find it very helpful for what I was looking for I think there was a good forum on there a good few years ago that featured the famous Maria laying thread

You'll find the Maria laying thread at the top in General Betting.

General Betting was a busy place in those days.

Striding,

Good work on the tables above, a lot of effort put into it.

Interesting reading, well done

the derby ,saxon warrior never troubled the leaders,
yesterday sacred path never troubled the leaders

1.55 muss in running?

in front no lay =lost

4.15 newm fav made allno lay

2.20 notts,see how it goes in/run?

that you jim?

fifth early LAY, ran on last fulong 2nd.

2.00 br always behind