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05 Jun 18
13:09
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Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
Even though he clearly isn't too bothered about these races the horse seems incredibly weak in the market. On paper it doesn't look a great contest and his runner is arguably the pick on breeding. You would expect 7/2-9/2, rather than 10/1.
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Nicky Henderson does well in these races so 3/1 favourite just ahead of Kingy's. Lady Marwah third-best and she's taking a fair drop in class.
Now like you, my pin was drawn to Significant Other but this is first time out, and she is only a 4-year-old against mainly older and experienced mares. 8/1 is probably fair.
Now like you, my pin was drawn to Significant Other but this is first time out, and she is only a 4-year-old against mainly older and experienced mares. 8/1 is probably fair.
Sunrise Ruby and Skin Deep are both out of an unraced half sister to Yanworth. Skin Deep looked pretty slow on debut but these days King is another who doesn't seem too bothered about winning these races. Sunrise Ruby was a cheap yearling who presumably was sold on privately. Guesswork of course but I would suspect she probably in the stable's third tier. Lady Marwah hasn't started shorter than 25/1 and that last race was probably below average for a Cheltenham bumper.
I thought the 8/1 that Betfair Sportsbook put up first quote was taking a risk and they have now pushed her out to 10/1. Perhaps they have an inkling that today definitely isn't the day. She is a half sister to two bumper winners and by a sire who has already produced one very promising bumper winner from his first crop.
Anyway I was gullible enough to take that initial quote and added Sheila Tanist who travelled into the race like the second best horse at Ludlow but for whatever reason didn't see it out. Hopefully, that wasn't a physical problem but she has been supported at big prices.
I thought the 8/1 that Betfair Sportsbook put up first quote was taking a risk and they have now pushed her out to 10/1. Perhaps they have an inkling that today definitely isn't the day. She is a half sister to two bumper winners and by a sire who has already produced one very promising bumper winner from his first crop.
Anyway I was gullible enough to take that initial quote and added Sheila Tanist who travelled into the race like the second best horse at Ludlow but for whatever reason didn't see it out. Hopefully, that wasn't a physical problem but she has been supported at big prices.
Market proved spot on. The horse shortened up late but that was probably only due to the earlier Skelton winners.
In a slowly run race - if you are serious about winning - you cannot concede 6-12 cheap lengths to fancied rivals. On that evidence you would never back a Skelton debutant in a bumper without any inside knowledge. No doubt THEY will pile on when they have the raw material to win one of these.
Same comments apply to Sheila Tanist although (unlike Significant Other) she did have the excuse of not settling for sitting out of her ground.
In a slowly run race - if you are serious about winning - you cannot concede 6-12 cheap lengths to fancied rivals. On that evidence you would never back a Skelton debutant in a bumper without any inside knowledge. No doubt THEY will pile on when they have the raw material to win one of these.
Same comments apply to Sheila Tanist although (unlike Significant Other) she did have the excuse of not settling for sitting out of her ground.
The market was wrong. The early market was right but as you say, Significant Other shortened into 5/1 and there the market was wrong.
The other one the market got wrong was Lady Marwah, who as I mentioned earlier was dropping a long way in class. Backed into favourite but imo may have not got home.
Anyone following the late money in the getting-out stakes will have been hitch-hiking home.
The other one the market got wrong was Lady Marwah, who as I mentioned earlier was dropping a long way in class. Backed into favourite but imo may have not got home.
Anyone following the late money in the getting-out stakes will have been hitch-hiking home.
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