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04 Jun 18
14:31
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10 Dec 08
Using an illustration of a c o c k to work out Masar's rating 
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He's now telling us the distance between the winner and the placed horses correlates to the winners performance/RPR
Jesus wept LOL. Is that not how ratings work? What exactly did he expect? |
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Does willow bet?
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The numbers seem to say Masar is a just pound behind STS
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I dont think he can afford to.
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of course all punters no the horses who finished 4th and 5th who willo thinks their beaten distance counts a lot,were ridden by jockeys famous for getting every ounce out of their horses to finish 4th ,5th,6th,etc,
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Sounds like an extremely pointless exercise from Willo given the variables and arguments/flaws of ratings
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HTF , do you rate horses on distance beaten when ridden by jockeys who are only interested in winning.maybe placing in big races but in finishing 4th,5th, moore had stopped riding yesterday French derby horse horse half a mile out and stopped riding the oaks fav a second after letting his stablemate through onto the golden highway
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it's a poser
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I take it Willo's on The Verdict this week?
Excellent, I'll be recording it later to enjoy at my leisure. |
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maybe willo would like to rate all obriens 3 yr olds for us,
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ratings out of the window a race later for the oaks
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charlie appleby will go head to head with ballydoyle when he gets the horses!! they spend a fortune getting them ffs
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Looking at Cracksman's rather unusual action it's highly likely that Gosden is right and Willo is wrong. And that's not a big surprise.
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" ...the formula almost magically predicts the future of the horses in the race. Now of course it's not perfect because look down here." 14th on the list Sea the Stars.
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The major and only difference between the posters who aired their opinions here and those pundits/tipsters on racing channels or papers is the latter are paid, and the former are not; the latter to fill the air-time paid for by the former, how ironic? Rubbish aplenty from most.
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remember this was the RPR figure given after the derby and does not take into account later achievement
and STS never did a tap in front...hard to justify big figures on horses like that |
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True but the point is he is saying this table predicts later achievement. That's why figures per se are very rarely any use. Even a fast timefigure is usually accompanied by a horse winning by half the track. That's why it's judgement on how much STS or any other horse had in hand and your view on the ability/stamina of the beaten horses that really counts. The guy that got near to Willo's dream was Alan Woods in Hong Kong. Different world with one track limited number of horses and most important massive tote liquidity and more mug punters than anywhere else.
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the table with distances beaten 2nd,3rd,4th,5th etc?
that's used (in part) to arrive at the rating for the race what did he say about predicting future achievement? as that is bollox imo |
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Obrien pishes up in oaks with a horse who 8 weeks ago probably wouldn't have made the top 12,15 of his oaks possibles and still a maiden,beats an Appleby fav yet 24 hrs later the apple of obriens eye is mullered by an Appleby rag [ betting wise ], makes you wonder what the stables thought of both horses in both yards in january
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was soft ground tbf
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for the oaks
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4to 5,saxon farm,7 to 4 masrah for irihs derby if they turn up,tells you what bookmakers and most punters think, that's the problem with racing these days on any given day these horse probably arnt even the best in their yard never mind in training
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by the end of the irish derby oaks, weekend we,ll have probably seen over 40 Obrien 3 yr olds and some still to come [ been injured ] since Newmarket including irish French classics and by the Monday morning probably non the wiser,maybe after that weekend willo could rate the Obrien 3 yr olds on the verdict
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hmmm not sure about that, I'd be amazed is SW is not his best middle distance 3yo colt
the fillies look harder to arrange into a pecking order |
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in the irish derby it is masah who is doing the travelling this time and its hard to envisage SW getting a worse ride than at epsom (possibly influenced by the draw but I think this has been overplayed in a 12 runner race)
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masrah..masah
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and saxon farm
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The Coronation Cup analysis was riveting broadcasting, whether you agreed with it or not, as Willo spoke his mind and seemed fearless of who might be put out by it. Not many would have done that.
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wonders
will Saxon Farm win the Irish Derby...here's a vital piece of videoform https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjMJ_o2EEfY |
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Well said Howellsy, agree entirely
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