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24 May 18
18:50
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Date Joined:
05 Apr 02
.... the Holy Grail of betting. Since racing began, gamblers have been searching for a winning system and to the best of my knowledge, they have all failed dismally. Starting from tomorrow, I am going to follow a system that I think can show a nice profit long term. I shall list the runners the night before and for keeping tabs on the system, profit/loss shall be determined to a £10 level stake.
The system is quite simple (bit like myself
). Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run. Horses are not machines and will always make fools of punters, but I am a firm believer in giving strongly fancied runners another chance when turned over at odds on. As you know, there are so many meetings nowadays and it`s easy to miss one, so if I do please let me know.
Good luck if you follow the system.
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING
The system is quite simple (bit like myself
). Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run. Horses are not machines and will always make fools of punters, but I am a firm believer in giving strongly fancied runners another chance when turned over at odds on. As you know, there are so many meetings nowadays and it`s easy to miss one, so if I do please let me know.Good luck if you follow the system.
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING
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ALL BRITISH AND IRISH RACES INCLUDED
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TIP ...
Keep TWO Profit & Loss columns ... One for Backing them - and One for Laying them. |
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beaten odds-on fav (@ SP) lto (all UK/Ire races 2008>): 1902- 7480 (25%) roibf -1.3/ roisp -0.54
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Well, that's that. End of fred. The holy grail search goes on..
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apologies..last bit should read roibf -1.3/ roisp -10.7/ roibf (Lay) -0.54
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Duncan, what does abbreviation roisp mean? Ta.
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Fair suggestion onlooker, but this is a bet to win system. I am not going to lay them.
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oops
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Thanks.
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can produce some nice winners but its gotta outweigh the losers
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Two runners tomorrow to start the ball rolling. Thing with systems is that you have to follow it blind. Start deciding horses have no chance, like 50/1 shot maiden of O`Brien`s in Irish Guineas, can prove bad. In for a penny, in for a pound. Let the game begin!
SATURDAY (25/05/18) Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel) |
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Oh, Applesandpieres won at Cartmel by 18 lengths at 8/1. Nice start. Can`t see the other one winning though but I have bet it as one has to follow the system blindly. Pity nobody joined me, playing with the bookies money now.
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wd tmm
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Thanks mate.
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BAMOS mighty! Promising early signs. The trouble is like the one Gazey keeps running in to, how to slice off the fat and make the best use of our capital? So much racing, so many selections, so many cisterns.. and not enough time/capital to follow them all with the dedication needed.
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Cheers sniper! You are correct with what you say, but can`t ask for a better start, well perhaps I can if the Rag wins the Guineas, lol. To get in front so early is a bonus and I can invest the profit in other ones. Good luck with your bets!
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I knew that Spanish Point had no chance but one has to follow the system blindly or there is no point to the exercise. Shall post any runners for Sunday later.
FRIDAY (25/05/18) NO HORSES RUNNING SATURDAY (25/05/18) Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1 -£10 Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel) WON 8/1 +£80 Overall Profit/Loss +£70 |
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Three runners tomorrow. Good luck!
SUNDAY (27/05/18) Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) |
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Up until Gardens Of Babylon, I thought I knew what the criteria was for picking those so far and still might if either that one is a mistake and shouldn't be a selection, or it isn't a mistake and so the criteria rules are not as specific or strict as I initially thought.
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You are just about on the button there.
I see it all the time and mainly it is media hype that sends them into the red and are also lightly raced. When they get that run out of the way they go out again in price and can perform. Last night 1.35 NEW QUEEN (something like that) (6) I am sure the media jumped on her, but she looked very ordinary pre race and got beat about 6 lengths in a small field. Next start 3rd up and more likely fitter she can bounce back in the black. But at 1.35 yesterday, punters got burnt big time. James |
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Wasn't Garden Of Babylon an odds on beaten favourite in its last run ?
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Systems like these don't have to be trialled - you can see the stats very easily for past years (stats necessarily belong to the past). But you have to be clear about what you're testing - odds on last time, measured by what? industry SP, Betfair SP, last show in SP betting markets or last show on Betfair.
In any event whichever way you gather the stats, it's a complete loser year on year as Duncan has pointed out (there is one small winning year in 2016 at BFSP). Laying is a better bet but even then it's nothing special. |
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Agreed, systems like these are doomed to failure.
However there are ' systems' that show long term profit  |
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Why have you put a sunglasses emoji at the end of your post Facts? Is that a typo?
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Nope it's not a typo.
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Systems are strange things. I followed one which made a small but consistent profit for 6-7 years but has made a loss over the past 18 months.
Now keeping a record of it with a view to backing the selections instead of laying them. Strange how it suddenly turned round |
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Did someone say holy grail? I happen to be the expert on it. There are indeed systems that work beautifully but they're not this simple. @Prosniper fat is not that much of an issue. Look at this system for example: https://snag.gy/j2FNlR.jpg (290 units are from May this year, I couldn't believe it myself, it's better than in 2017 when I stopped testing it at +151 for some reason)
You see that downswing at the end? That's when I posted them in the thread. Just because they lost doesn't mean they were bad picks, it's just variance taking its toll. Overall my systems run at 22% strike rate the past few weeks despite my average being 38%, just gotta ride it out. |
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I've had a system that has made reasonable profits since 2009 until the last 18 months. I was wondering if it had anything to do with PP taking over, or was it something to do with the number of place type bets being increased?? There have been some suspect figures returned at BSP, for example, the 1000 Guinesa winner.
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what's the criteria of that system gaze? cheers
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I'm not just handing out my golden geese, I spent at least 10k hours finding them.
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It is a goose that hasn't laid any eggs for the last 18 months by your own admission
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Fat has built up. Gazey won't be long in trimming it away..
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If I had a 10k bankroll I'd be printing 5k a month. I'm long term unemployed and broke, where do you think I get the time to paper bet 200 systems?
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Gazey, I told you were to go for the 10k. No sympathy if you don't heed sound advice.
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I would be ok with 500, I could grow it fast.
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Start with a racing bank that you can afford. As small as you like. If your system is sound, the bank will increase.
And with it, the proportional stakes. Good luck |
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The criteria is quite simple to understand as outlined in the first post. Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run.
This means a horse that started odds on s.p. favourite in it`s last race and got beat. Can`t believe that I have to explain that to seasoned punters, but hey ho. There were only 3 horses running in UK and IRL on Sunday that fitted that simple criteria. Gardens of Babylon was beaten last time out at 9/10sp so that is a selection Latrobe was beaten last time out at 9/10sp so that is a selection Ringa Ding Ding was beaten last time out at 4/6sp so that is a selection Good news for the detractors is that the 2 that ran finished second and the 3rd Gardens Of Babylon was a N/R. |