Forums
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
themightymac
24 May 18 18:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 31,333 | Blogger: themightymac's blog
.... the Holy Grail of betting. Since racing began, gamblers have been searching for a winning system and to the best of my knowledge, they have all failed dismally. Starting from tomorrow, I am going to follow a system that I think can show a nice profit long term. I shall list the runners the night before and for keeping tabs on the system, profit/loss shall be determined to a £10 level stake.

The system is quite simple (bit like myself Crazy). Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run. Horses are not machines and will always make fools of punters, but I am a firm believer in giving strongly fancied runners another chance when turned over at odds on. As you know, there are so many meetings nowadays and it`s easy to miss one, so if I do please let me know.

Good luck if you follow the system.

FRIDAY (25/05/18)

NO HORSES RUNNING

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 111
By:
themightymac
When: 24 May 18 18:51
ALL BRITISH AND IRISH RACES INCLUDED
By:
Roquebrune
When: 24 May 18 18:52
LaughLaughLaugh
By:
onlooker
When: 24 May 18 18:53
TIP  ...

Keep TWO Profit & Loss columns ...

One for Backing them - and One for Laying them.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 24 May 18 18:58
beaten odds-on fav (@ SP) lto (all UK/Ire races 2008>): 1902- 7480 (25%) roibf -1.3/ roisp -0.54
By:
ProSniper
When: 24 May 18 19:00
Well, that's that. End of fred. The holy grail search goes on..

Laugh
By:
duncan idaho
When: 24 May 18 19:01
apologies..last bit should read  roibf -1.3/ roisp -10.7/ roibf (Lay) -0.54
By:
themightymac
When: 25 May 18 15:39
Duncan, what does abbreviation roisp mean? Ta.
By:
themightymac
When: 25 May 18 15:41
Fair suggestion onlooker, but this is a bet to win system. I am not going to lay them.
By:
wondersobright
When: 25 May 18 15:51

May 25, 2018 -- 3:39PM, themightymac wrote:


Duncan, what does abbreviation roisp mean? Ta.


return on investment @ starting price

By:
wondersobright
When: 25 May 18 15:51
oops
By:
themightymac
When: 25 May 18 15:54
Thanks.
By:
lord skywalker
When: 25 May 18 16:32
can produce some nice winners but its gotta outweigh the losers
By:
themightymac
When: 25 May 18 17:43
Two runners tomorrow to start the ball rolling. Thing with systems is that you have to follow it blind. Start deciding horses have no chance, like 50/1 shot maiden of O`Brien`s in Irish Guineas, can prove bad. In for a penny, in for a pound. Let the game begin!

SATURDAY (25/05/18)

Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh)

Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 18 15:10
Oh, Applesandpieres won at Cartmel by 18 lengths at 8/1. Nice start. Can`t see the other one winning though but I have bet it as one has to follow the system blindly. Pity nobody joined me, playing with the bookies money now.
By:
wondersobright
When: 26 May 18 15:13
wd tmm
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 18 15:15
Thanks mate.
By:
ProSniper
When: 26 May 18 15:37
BAMOS mighty! Promising early signs. The trouble is like the one Gazey keeps running in to, how to slice off the fat and make the best use of our capital? So much racing, so many selections, so many cisterns.. and not enough time/capital to follow them all with the dedication needed.
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 18 16:00
Cheers sniper! You are correct with what you say, but can`t ask for a better start, well perhaps I can if the Rag wins the Guineas, lol. To get in front so early is a bonus and I can invest the profit in other ones. Good luck with your bets!
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 18 16:22
I knew that Spanish Point had no chance but one has to follow the system blindly or there is no point to the exercise. Shall post any runners for Sunday later.

FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING


SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80


Overall Profit/Loss    +£70
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 18 17:06
Three runners tomorrow. Good luck!

SUNDAY (27/05/18)

Latrobe (3.00 Curragh)
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh)
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell)
By:
ima_mazed66
When: 27 May 18 05:53
Up until Gardens Of Babylon, I thought I knew what the criteria was for picking those so far and still might if either that one is a mistake and shouldn't be a selection, or it isn't a mistake and so the criteria rules are not as specific or strict as I initially thought.
By:
value bet
When: 27 May 18 09:26
You are just about on the button there.

I see it all the time and mainly it is media hype that sends them into the red and are also lightly raced.

When they get that run out of the way they go out again in price and can perform.

Last night 1.35 NEW QUEEN (something like that) (6) I am sure the media jumped on her, but she looked very ordinary pre race
and got beat about 6 lengths in a small field.

Next start 3rd up and more likely fitter she can bounce back in the black.

But at 1.35 yesterday, punters got burnt big time.

James
By:
Facts
When: 27 May 18 09:39
Wasn't Garden Of Babylon an odds on beaten favourite in its last run ?
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 27 May 18 09:59
Systems like these don't have to be trialled - you can see the stats very easily for past years (stats necessarily belong to the past). But you have to be clear about what you're testing - odds on last time, measured by what? industry SP, Betfair SP, last show in SP betting markets or last show on Betfair.


In any event whichever way you gather the stats, it's a complete loser year on year as Duncan has pointed out (there is one small winning year in 2016 at BFSP). Laying is a better bet but even then it's nothing special.
By:
Facts
When: 27 May 18 10:03
Agreed, systems like these are doomed to failure.
However there are ' systems' that show long term profit Cool
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 27 May 18 10:06
Why have you put a sunglasses emoji at the end of your post Facts? Is that a typo?
By:
Facts
When: 27 May 18 10:07
Nope it's not a typo.
By:
Knight Commander
When: 27 May 18 11:30
Systems are strange things. I followed one which made a small but consistent profit for 6-7 years but has made a loss over the past 18 months.

Now keeping a record of it with a view to backing the selections instead of laying them. Strange how it suddenly turned round Crazy
By:
Gaze733
When: 27 May 18 11:36
Did someone say holy grail? I happen to be the expert on it.  There are indeed systems that work beautifully but they're not this simple. @Prosniper fat is not that much of an issue. Look at this system for example: https://snag.gy/j2FNlR.jpg (290 units are from May this year, I couldn't believe it myself, it's better than in 2017 when I stopped testing it at +151 for some reason)
You see that downswing at the end? That's when I posted them in the thread. Just because they lost doesn't mean they were bad picks, it's just variance taking its toll. Overall my systems run at 22% strike rate the past few weeks despite my average being 38%, just gotta ride it out.
By:
Grok
When: 27 May 18 14:34
I've had a system that has made reasonable profits since 2009 until the last 18 months.  I was wondering if it had anything to do with PP taking over, or was it something to do with the number of place type bets being increased??  There have been some suspect figures returned at BSP, for example, the 1000 Guinesa winner.
By:
wondersobright
When: 27 May 18 14:58
what's the criteria of that system gaze? cheers
By:
Gaze733
When: 27 May 18 15:26
I'm not just handing out my golden geese, I spent at least 10k hours finding them.
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 27 May 18 15:53
It is a goose that hasn't laid any eggs for the last 18 months by your own admission
By:
ProSniper
When: 27 May 18 15:56
Fat has built up. Gazey won't be long in trimming it away..
By:
Gaze733
When: 27 May 18 16:37
If I had a 10k bankroll I'd be printing 5k a month. I'm long term unemployed and broke, where do you think I get the time to paper bet 200 systems?
By:
ProSniper
When: 27 May 18 16:57
Gazey, I told you were to go for the 10k. No sympathy if you don't heed sound advice.
By:
Gaze733
When: 27 May 18 17:14
I would be ok with 500, I could grow it fast.
By:
Facts
When: 27 May 18 17:18
Start with a racing bank that you can afford. As small as you like. If your system is sound, the bank will increase.
And with it, the proportional stakes.
Good luck
By:
themightymac
When: 27 May 18 22:06
The criteria is quite simple to understand as outlined in the first post. Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run.

This means a horse that started odds on s.p. favourite in it`s last race and got beat. Can`t believe that I have to explain that to seasoned punters, but hey ho.

There were only 3 horses running in UK and IRL on Sunday that fitted that simple criteria.

Gardens of Babylon was beaten last time out at 9/10sp so that is a selection

Latrobe was beaten last time out at 9/10sp so that is a selection

Ringa Ding Ding was beaten last time out at 4/6sp so that is a selection

Good news for the detractors is that the 2 that ran finished second and the 3rd Gardens Of Babylon was a N/R.
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com