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Maximum Stake: 10 points win or 5 points EW
As I'll need all the help I can get, all selections will be settled at BOG.
I'd imagine most selections will be at double figure prices and some will be more speculative than others, but it's just a bit of interest and nothing to take too seriously.
As I'll need all the help I can get, all selections will be settled at BOG.
I'd imagine most selections will be at double figure prices and some will be more speculative than others, but it's just a bit of interest and nothing to take too seriously.
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Only a head between the first 4, so you could argue you were right to go ew
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Cheers Denzil.
3rd place for the last one, staying on well after losing his position
3rd place for the last one, staying on well after losing his position
Week before Ascot never a bad time to find some form
You mean get some points in the bank Denzil ready to cover the losses? 
At the moment I think there is one 2YO I may select who's likely to be a big price, but wouldn't be surprised if most my picks next week are at the 'away' meetings
I'll be sticking to Ascot all week I think just hoping for no silly day to day biases and too much overnight 'tampering' from the clerk,will probably end up with about 2 or 3 selections per race on that straight course.
Thanks NEC.
Just a little purple patch methinks. It won't last. It never does
Just a little purple patch methinks. It won't last. It never does
Jun 16, 2018 -- 2:14PM, GEORGE.B wrote:
Thanks NEC.Just a little purple patch methinks. It won't last. It never does
I can see you're a born pessimist George
Now you've got that nice bank, you should pack in the ew, go 1pt win on everything. I know you won't though .
You see PHS, I suffer from this affliction whereby I view my selections through rose tinted glasses and think if they don't win they'll go close, that's the optimist in me, though I acknowledge that in reality...
Genuinely Crowded, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 2.55 Salisbury
Genuinely Crowded has had 6 career starts to date which have all been on Polytrack and she caught my eye on her latest of them when returning from 3 month break, over 10f at Lingfield, travelling well round the inner but once in the straight not getting the clearest of runs and shaping a bit better than the bare result.
The winner was an unexposed Sir Mark Prescott-trained filly who was out quickly under a penalty following a win at Wolverhampton, and the form received a bit of a boost when Isle Of Man, who was looking held when jinking and unseating his rider over a furlong out, came out and won at Brighton (albeit first-time headgear might have been beneficial to him).
Genuinely Crowded is stepped back up to 12f today (previous runs at the trip would suggest she stays) and has to prove her effectiveness on turf, but she looks a sizeable filly who might have needed a bit of time to mature and grow into her frame, so it's possible she may progress yet, while a drop in the ratings, first-time cheekpieces and Luke Morris taking over in the saddle, may all help.
Geoffrey's Girl, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.20 Cork
Geoffrey's Girl could do with the forecast rain getting into the ground and changing the going, in which case she would make a little EW appeal at the prices.
She made her debut for her current handler in a Listed race on heavy ground over C/D in April which was won by the useful Bloomfield, finishing 4th of the 5 runners and 7l off the winner having attempted to make all, but the run didn't do her handicap mark any good as she was hit with an 8lb rise.
She appeared anchored by her revised rating back in handicap company over 13f at Navan, but the ground might have been quick enough for her (wins on the continent came on going described as soft / heavy) and it did appear that she might have gone off too quickly having gone clear at halfway before coming back to the field and being headed 2f out.
Geoffrey's Girl has to prove she wasn't flattered by her run in Listed company over C/D for which she got an RPR of 88, but if the forecast rain has got into the ground, she looks worth chancing at the prices, with her mark having been eased 2lb.
Genuinely Crowded has had 6 career starts to date which have all been on Polytrack and she caught my eye on her latest of them when returning from 3 month break, over 10f at Lingfield, travelling well round the inner but once in the straight not getting the clearest of runs and shaping a bit better than the bare result.
The winner was an unexposed Sir Mark Prescott-trained filly who was out quickly under a penalty following a win at Wolverhampton, and the form received a bit of a boost when Isle Of Man, who was looking held when jinking and unseating his rider over a furlong out, came out and won at Brighton (albeit first-time headgear might have been beneficial to him).
Genuinely Crowded is stepped back up to 12f today (previous runs at the trip would suggest she stays) and has to prove her effectiveness on turf, but she looks a sizeable filly who might have needed a bit of time to mature and grow into her frame, so it's possible she may progress yet, while a drop in the ratings, first-time cheekpieces and Luke Morris taking over in the saddle, may all help.
Geoffrey's Girl, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 4.20 Cork
Geoffrey's Girl could do with the forecast rain getting into the ground and changing the going, in which case she would make a little EW appeal at the prices.
She made her debut for her current handler in a Listed race on heavy ground over C/D in April which was won by the useful Bloomfield, finishing 4th of the 5 runners and 7l off the winner having attempted to make all, but the run didn't do her handicap mark any good as she was hit with an 8lb rise.
She appeared anchored by her revised rating back in handicap company over 13f at Navan, but the ground might have been quick enough for her (wins on the continent came on going described as soft / heavy) and it did appear that she might have gone off too quickly having gone clear at halfway before coming back to the field and being headed 2f out.
Geoffrey's Girl has to prove she wasn't flattered by her run in Listed company over C/D for which she got an RPR of 88, but if the forecast rain has got into the ground, she looks worth chancing at the prices, with her mark having been eased 2lb.
Well wide of the mark today. They couldn't give Genuinely Crowded away in the betting, and she never went a yard.
As for Geoffrey's Girl, although don't think the ground is on quick side at Cork today, think she would have needed it to have gone soft to have stood any chance against that level of competition.
Running P/L: +44.99
As for Geoffrey's Girl, although don't think the ground is on quick side at Cork today, think she would have needed it to have gone soft to have stood any chance against that level of competition.
Running P/L: +44.99
Lomu, 1pt win @ 14-1, 3.35 Ayr
Lomu is a lightly raced 4YO who is of a little interest dropping back to 5f. He won 2 of his 3 starts at 5f when a 2YO, but has raced over 7f or a mile since turning three, winning on his reappearance in 2017 over 7f at Ayr.
The two runs this season have been over a mile at Pontefract and Newcastle, weakening quickly both times from between the 2 and 3f markers having gone from the front. It was the run last time at Newcastle that caught my eye because he raced very freely through the early stages and not surprisingly didn't get home, and I note the jockey had reported that the gelding had raced freely the previous time at Pontefract.
His mark has been dropped 3lb and he's eased back in grade today, so while he's clearly got a bit prove right now, interesting to see if the drop back to 5f prompts a better effort.
Artful Rogue, 1pt win @ 17-2, 3,35 Ayr
Artful Rogue's overall record would suggest he's a lot more likely to place than win, but his mark is easing and he hasn't been shaping too badly for his current yard, including two starts back over 12.5f at Musselburgh when perhaps making his effort prematurely before paying the price inside the final furlong, in a race that has worked out well.
He's eased back in grade today and he looks well handicapped on turf form for his previous yard, including when finishing second at Sandown over 10f last June off a mark of 80. His two wins on the AW were over 12f, but he has run OK over 2 miles at Newcastle, so hopefully 13f is within reach.
His wears cheekpieces today for the first time since 2014, and when they applied the first time he was a good second in a class 3 Goodwood handicap over 12f off a mark of 75.
Lomu is a lightly raced 4YO who is of a little interest dropping back to 5f. He won 2 of his 3 starts at 5f when a 2YO, but has raced over 7f or a mile since turning three, winning on his reappearance in 2017 over 7f at Ayr.
The two runs this season have been over a mile at Pontefract and Newcastle, weakening quickly both times from between the 2 and 3f markers having gone from the front. It was the run last time at Newcastle that caught my eye because he raced very freely through the early stages and not surprisingly didn't get home, and I note the jockey had reported that the gelding had raced freely the previous time at Pontefract.
His mark has been dropped 3lb and he's eased back in grade today, so while he's clearly got a bit prove right now, interesting to see if the drop back to 5f prompts a better effort.
Artful Rogue, 1pt win @ 17-2, 3,35 Ayr
Artful Rogue's overall record would suggest he's a lot more likely to place than win, but his mark is easing and he hasn't been shaping too badly for his current yard, including two starts back over 12.5f at Musselburgh when perhaps making his effort prematurely before paying the price inside the final furlong, in a race that has worked out well.
He's eased back in grade today and he looks well handicapped on turf form for his previous yard, including when finishing second at Sandown over 10f last June off a mark of 80. His two wins on the AW were over 12f, but he has run OK over 2 miles at Newcastle, so hopefully 13f is within reach.
His wears cheekpieces today for the first time since 2014, and when they applied the first time he was a good second in a class 3 Goodwood handicap over 12f off a mark of 75.
Lomu ran well to be second but unfortunately Artful Rogue somehow found a way to finish 4th, so that was the EW double scuppered.
Running P/L: +40.99
Running P/L: +40.99
Blown By Wind, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 5 PLACES, 1/5th the odds, 3.05 Ascot
Blown By Wind makes a little appeal at the prices with 5 places on offer. He only managed to finish fourth in the Listed National Stakes over 5f at Sandown on his latest start, but he had the widest draw to contend with and was forced to race four wide from the rail and in the circumstances I thought he ran well enough.
He had won his previous start over 5f at Ascot when carrying a penalty and that form got a little boost when the fourth came out and won easily at Goodwood, albeit that colt had been making his debut at Ascot and might have needed the experience.
Blown By Wind is proven at the track, is unexposed under quick conditions, promises to be suited by the step up to 6f, and goes there battle hardened having had the four starts, so hopefully can at least challenge for a place.
Blown By Wind makes a little appeal at the prices with 5 places on offer. He only managed to finish fourth in the Listed National Stakes over 5f at Sandown on his latest start, but he had the widest draw to contend with and was forced to race four wide from the rail and in the circumstances I thought he ran well enough.
He had won his previous start over 5f at Ascot when carrying a penalty and that form got a little boost when the fourth came out and won easily at Goodwood, albeit that colt had been making his debut at Ascot and might have needed the experience.
Blown By Wind is proven at the track, is unexposed under quick conditions, promises to be suited by the step up to 6f, and goes there battle hardened having had the four starts, so hopefully can at least challenge for a place.
A speculative selection for the King's Stand
Battle Of Jericho, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 4 PLACES, 1/5th the odds, 3.40 Ascot
Battle Of Jericho makes a little EW appeal at huge odds with an extra place being offered. The notebook run was when he ran in the 5f Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket last October, his only start so far at the minimum distance, looking like he had plenty of running left in him but unable to secure a clear run and shaping a lot better than his finishing position of 7th would suggest.
The form of that race could have worked out better and he has plenty to find on the figures today, while he wasn't overly impressive when beating inferior rivals over 6f at Fairyhouse on his return, but he's by a sire (War Front) who has a good record on fast ground at Ascot, is unexposed at the distance, and presumably has been targeted at this.
Battle Of Jericho, 1pt EW @ 66-1, 4 PLACES, 1/5th the odds, 3.40 Ascot
Battle Of Jericho makes a little EW appeal at huge odds with an extra place being offered. The notebook run was when he ran in the 5f Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket last October, his only start so far at the minimum distance, looking like he had plenty of running left in him but unable to secure a clear run and shaping a lot better than his finishing position of 7th would suggest.
The form of that race could have worked out better and he has plenty to find on the figures today, while he wasn't overly impressive when beating inferior rivals over 6f at Fairyhouse on his return, but he's by a sire (War Front) who has a good record on fast ground at Ascot, is unexposed at the distance, and presumably has been targeted at this.
Blown By Wind finished second in the stands' side group behind the impressive winner Calyx, but that was only good enough for 7th overall.
Way of the mark with Battle Of Jericho who was outclassed.
Running P/L: +36.99
Way of the mark with Battle Of Jericho who was outclassed.
Running P/L: +36.99
A couple of 'rags' against the field in the Queen Mary
Snazzy, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1/4 odds 4 PLACES, 2.30 Ascot
Snazzy comfortably won a class 2 contest over 5f at Newcastle on her debut, and she followed that up with a good run to be third in a Listed race over 5f at York, when behind both Signora Cabello and Daphinia, who reoppose here.
She has work to do to reverse the form with the two who beat her at York, never mind coming up against potentially stronger rivals today, but there is reason to think she was better than the bare result at York, given she over-raced while disputing the lead, having been drawn in the outside stall, and in the circumstances did well to finish as close as she did behind one who'd been ridden with more restraint.
Her trainer Charlie Fellowes has said the plan this time will be to try and get her some cover (as had been the case when she won at Newcastle), so hopefully that will happen and she will see her race out better ths time.
Kodyanna, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1/4 odds 4 PLACES, 2.30 Ascot
Kodyanna impressed when winning the Hilary Needler over 5f at Beverley on her second start, just having to be shaken up to assert well inside the final furlong and looking nicely on top at the finish. It should be said that the race went her way having got a nice position on the rail whereas the filly she beat, Deia Glory (who also runs here) had to work to get to the lead from a wide draw, but no surprise if there's more to come from Kodyanna who looks like she has a bit of size about her and is bred for the job given she's a half-sister to a 2YO Listed winner, and interesting to note that her dam is Jadanna, who won the Hilary Needler herself before finishing a creditable 5th of 27 in the Queen Mary.
Snazzy, 1pt EW @ 50-1, 1/4 odds 4 PLACES, 2.30 Ascot
Snazzy comfortably won a class 2 contest over 5f at Newcastle on her debut, and she followed that up with a good run to be third in a Listed race over 5f at York, when behind both Signora Cabello and Daphinia, who reoppose here.
She has work to do to reverse the form with the two who beat her at York, never mind coming up against potentially stronger rivals today, but there is reason to think she was better than the bare result at York, given she over-raced while disputing the lead, having been drawn in the outside stall, and in the circumstances did well to finish as close as she did behind one who'd been ridden with more restraint.
Her trainer Charlie Fellowes has said the plan this time will be to try and get her some cover (as had been the case when she won at Newcastle), so hopefully that will happen and she will see her race out better ths time.
Kodyanna, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 1/4 odds 4 PLACES, 2.30 Ascot
Kodyanna impressed when winning the Hilary Needler over 5f at Beverley on her second start, just having to be shaken up to assert well inside the final furlong and looking nicely on top at the finish. It should be said that the race went her way having got a nice position on the rail whereas the filly she beat, Deia Glory (who also runs here) had to work to get to the lead from a wide draw, but no surprise if there's more to come from Kodyanna who looks like she has a bit of size about her and is bred for the job given she's a half-sister to a 2YO Listed winner, and interesting to note that her dam is Jadanna, who won the Hilary Needler herself before finishing a creditable 5th of 27 in the Queen Mary.
That worked out well...I wouldn't have minded Snazzy finishing 3rd to Signora Cabello today but didn't get anywhere near her this time. Right race, wrong horse 
Running P/L: +32.99
Running P/L: +32.99
Rumble Inthejungle, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.30 Ascot
Rumble Inthejungle impressed when making a winning debut over 5f at Salisbury, getting on top in the closing stages and looking strong at the finish, despite showing signs of greenness, from a pair who had the benefit of previous experience, with 8 lengths back to the fourth. There are mixed messages from the form, but the 5th Sunsprite (who was making his debut) subsequently won at Bath and followed up in a class 2 contest back at Salisbury.
Rumble Inthejungle looks a strong, sizeable sort, who shapes as though he can come on plenty with his debut experience behind him, and although this is quite a step up, his trainer knows what it takes to prepare a juvenile for this meeting having won the Coventry last year with Rajasinghe.
Finniston Farm, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 1/5th the odds 6 places, 5.00 Ascot
Finniston Farm showed useful form as juvenile, not beaten far when pitched into the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at the July Meeting, and he showed he had trained on fine when runner-up in the Free Handicap at the Craven meeting.
He wasn't entirely disgraced two starts back when stepped up 10.5 furlongs for the Dee Stakes at Chester given he was keen and made his effort round the outer, but it was his latest start back in handicap company over one mile at Haydock that caught my eye. He seemed to do plenty that day from a wide draw to eventually get to the lead, and while it looked like he was going to drop away after being swamped over a furlong out, he actually kept on quite well to finish 5th and fare best of those that had raced prominently.
He meets the winner Crack On Crack On on 8lb better terms today, and interesting to see how he fares in a race of this nature if running his race more evenly.
Lethal Steps, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 1/5th the odds 6 places, 5.00 Ascot
Lethal Steps showed some fair form as a juvenile when encountering a decent surface, and after a below par run on his reappearance on easy ground, I selected him at huge odds back on a sound surface in the Derrinstown Derby Trial over 10f at Leopardstown, and he wasn't disgraced in 5th, 5l behind Hazapour, who subsequently travelled like the best horse for much of the Derby trip at Epsom, and the horse who finished one place ahead of Lethal Steps at Leopardstown, Platinum Warrior, has since won a Group 3 at the Curragh.
Lethal Steps has since joined Andrew Balding from Ger Lyons, steps back in trip to a mile, and with the ground looking like it will be to his liking, he gets a vote at decent odds in the hope that he finds this test to his liking.
Rumble Inthejungle impressed when making a winning debut over 5f at Salisbury, getting on top in the closing stages and looking strong at the finish, despite showing signs of greenness, from a pair who had the benefit of previous experience, with 8 lengths back to the fourth. There are mixed messages from the form, but the 5th Sunsprite (who was making his debut) subsequently won at Bath and followed up in a class 2 contest back at Salisbury.
Rumble Inthejungle looks a strong, sizeable sort, who shapes as though he can come on plenty with his debut experience behind him, and although this is quite a step up, his trainer knows what it takes to prepare a juvenile for this meeting having won the Coventry last year with Rajasinghe.
Finniston Farm, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 1/5th the odds 6 places, 5.00 Ascot
Finniston Farm showed useful form as juvenile, not beaten far when pitched into the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at the July Meeting, and he showed he had trained on fine when runner-up in the Free Handicap at the Craven meeting.
He wasn't entirely disgraced two starts back when stepped up 10.5 furlongs for the Dee Stakes at Chester given he was keen and made his effort round the outer, but it was his latest start back in handicap company over one mile at Haydock that caught my eye. He seemed to do plenty that day from a wide draw to eventually get to the lead, and while it looked like he was going to drop away after being swamped over a furlong out, he actually kept on quite well to finish 5th and fare best of those that had raced prominently.
He meets the winner Crack On Crack On on 8lb better terms today, and interesting to see how he fares in a race of this nature if running his race more evenly.
Lethal Steps, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 1/5th the odds 6 places, 5.00 Ascot
Lethal Steps showed some fair form as a juvenile when encountering a decent surface, and after a below par run on his reappearance on easy ground, I selected him at huge odds back on a sound surface in the Derrinstown Derby Trial over 10f at Leopardstown, and he wasn't disgraced in 5th, 5l behind Hazapour, who subsequently travelled like the best horse for much of the Derby trip at Epsom, and the horse who finished one place ahead of Lethal Steps at Leopardstown, Platinum Warrior, has since won a Group 3 at the Curragh.
Lethal Steps has since joined Andrew Balding from Ger Lyons, steps back in trip to a mile, and with the ground looking like it will be to his liking, he gets a vote at decent odds in the hope that he finds this test to his liking.
Unfortunately (?) my two picks for the Britannia are drawn close to each other in the middle, so if any bias develops down either of the wings, whatever chance they may have could be scuppered!
Britannia impossible this year usually one of my favourite races alas shortlist not so short so no bet,GL with yours the middle looked to have an advantage to me yesterday 15/16 could be ok.
Denzil, I've moved the market with my pair in the Britannia, now 66s and 80s 
Both Kealy and Segal have tipped the Rumble', just when you thought it couldn't get any worse
Both Kealy and Segal have tipped the Rumble', just when you thought it couldn't get any worse
Rumble' travelled nicely, traded under 2-1 in the run, but didn't see it out and just clung on for 4th.
Just seen that Delano Roosevelt is fav for the King Edward tomorrow with Moore jocked up.
When I selected it in the Derby, went round the back of the telly as if it had 20 stone on its back, unrecognisable from that horse that was closing down on the Weld horse in the Derrinstown. The layers knew too, they were falling over themselves on here to lay it.
When I selected it in the Derby, went round the back of the telly as if it had 20 stone on its back, unrecognisable from that horse that was closing down on the Weld horse in the Derrinstown. The layers knew too, they were falling over themselves on here to lay it.
And to think it was going so well, that's half the thread's profit gone inside a week. I always did prefer Glorious Goodwood. See yers next the last week in July...
Running P/L: +26.99
Running P/L: +26.99
Delano Roosevelt, 2pts win @ 3-1, 3.05 Ascot
I'll give another chance to Delano Roosevelt, who disappointed when managing only 6th in the Derby, merely plugging on past beaten rivals down the straight having been dropped out. If that's as good as he is, or quicker ground is an issue for him, then he could struggle again here. However, he remains unexposed over middle distances having shaped in all his starts prior to the Derby that he could improve for the step up to 12f, and his form stacks up pretty well, having finished a staying on second to Saxon Warrior in a Group 2 over a mile at Naas last September, and his running on second to Hazapour in the Derrinstown over 10f at Leopardstown looks all the better now if viewed through the winner, given how well that colt showed up in the Derby until stamina apparently became an issue.
I'll give another chance to Delano Roosevelt, who disappointed when managing only 6th in the Derby, merely plugging on past beaten rivals down the straight having been dropped out. If that's as good as he is, or quicker ground is an issue for him, then he could struggle again here. However, he remains unexposed over middle distances having shaped in all his starts prior to the Derby that he could improve for the step up to 12f, and his form stacks up pretty well, having finished a staying on second to Saxon Warrior in a Group 2 over a mile at Naas last September, and his running on second to Hazapour in the Derrinstown over 10f at Leopardstown looks all the better now if viewed through the winner, given how well that colt showed up in the Derby until stamina apparently became an issue.
Pudding Chare, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 7.40 Ayr
I'll take a chance on Pudding Chare at the prices despite moving up from class 6 to class 4 company.
Formerly trained by Richard Fahey, he ran twice on consecutive days at Ayr last month for his new handler R Mike Smith, finishing last of 11 over 7f on the first run but looking a different horse when stepped up to 9f the following day, always on the pace and finding plenty to assert close home. The form was boosted when the third Zihaam (who admittedly had a poor trip) came out and won easily at Carlisle before running well at York.
Pudding Chare is up 6lb and into a stronger race here, but he's not had many chances on turf and he's unexposed at trips beyond a mile, while the track and ground are evidently no problem, so hopefully he can prove his win last time out wasn't a flash in the pan.
I'll take a chance on Pudding Chare at the prices despite moving up from class 6 to class 4 company.
Formerly trained by Richard Fahey, he ran twice on consecutive days at Ayr last month for his new handler R Mike Smith, finishing last of 11 over 7f on the first run but looking a different horse when stepped up to 9f the following day, always on the pace and finding plenty to assert close home. The form was boosted when the third Zihaam (who admittedly had a poor trip) came out and won easily at Carlisle before running well at York.
Pudding Chare is up 6lb and into a stronger race here, but he's not had many chances on turf and he's unexposed at trips beyond a mile, while the track and ground are evidently no problem, so hopefully he can prove his win last time out wasn't a flash in the pan.
It's not getting any better, is it?
It looked like Delano Roosevelt was poorly positioned as that panned out, making some late headway against a possible pace bias, but hey, excuses, excuses...
It looked like Delano Roosevelt was poorly positioned as that panned out, making some late headway against a possible pace bias, but hey, excuses, excuses...
Unlike his stablemate Gworn in the same race, Pudding Chare was very weak in the betting and failed to trouble the judge.
Running P/L: +22.99
Running P/L: +22.99
Whatsthemessage, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 3.30 Ayr
This is perhaps on the speculative side. Whatsthemessage ran in what admittedly didn't look the strongest of fillies' Listed races on her latest start at Musselburgh on Derby day when she wasn't well in on the adjusted figures, but she probably shaped better than the bare form given she contested what looked a decent pace whilst caught wider than is ideal round there and stayed in contention until her earlier exertions told from over a furlong out.
This doesn't look much easier back into handicap company against male opposition, and Philip Makin may be wise not to send her forward from the 8 draw with competition likely for the lead from Masham Star, Hayadh and Jay Kay, but a chance is taken at the prices on this filly who progressed well last season when winning five times in handicap company.
Mont Kiara, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 5.20 Newmarket
Mont Kiara has to bounce back from a poor run last time at Ripon and there's a query about his stable's form given they've gone 41 runners without a winner prior to today, but he's of interest back on the July Course where he's twice a course and distance winner, even though his draw in 10 is a slight concern.
He shaped nicely enough at Chelmsford on his reappearance under a sympathetic wide having been dropped in from a wide draw, and then his next run on the Rowley Mile course when he failed to get competitive is easy enough to forgive given it's likely he was at a disadvantage where he raced on the track. I selected him when he ran in a competitive handicap at Ascot last month (won by Dreamfield who is favourite for the Wokingham today; second, fifth and seventh have won since) and he wasn't disgraced in finishing 6th of the 15 runners given he ended up in the middle of the track and away from where the main action unfolded.
He's now just 1lb higher than the mark he won off here last August and 4lb lower than what he ran off at Ascot, and Harry Bentley, who has been aboard for both the horse's wins on the July course, takes over again in the plate .
This is perhaps on the speculative side. Whatsthemessage ran in what admittedly didn't look the strongest of fillies' Listed races on her latest start at Musselburgh on Derby day when she wasn't well in on the adjusted figures, but she probably shaped better than the bare form given she contested what looked a decent pace whilst caught wider than is ideal round there and stayed in contention until her earlier exertions told from over a furlong out.
This doesn't look much easier back into handicap company against male opposition, and Philip Makin may be wise not to send her forward from the 8 draw with competition likely for the lead from Masham Star, Hayadh and Jay Kay, but a chance is taken at the prices on this filly who progressed well last season when winning five times in handicap company.
Mont Kiara, 1pt EW @ 11-1, 5.20 Newmarket
Mont Kiara has to bounce back from a poor run last time at Ripon and there's a query about his stable's form given they've gone 41 runners without a winner prior to today, but he's of interest back on the July Course where he's twice a course and distance winner, even though his draw in 10 is a slight concern.
He shaped nicely enough at Chelmsford on his reappearance under a sympathetic wide having been dropped in from a wide draw, and then his next run on the Rowley Mile course when he failed to get competitive is easy enough to forgive given it's likely he was at a disadvantage where he raced on the track. I selected him when he ran in a competitive handicap at Ascot last month (won by Dreamfield who is favourite for the Wokingham today; second, fifth and seventh have won since) and he wasn't disgraced in finishing 6th of the 15 runners given he ended up in the middle of the track and away from where the main action unfolded.
He's now just 1lb higher than the mark he won off here last August and 4lb lower than what he ran off at Ascot, and Harry Bentley, who has been aboard for both the horse's wins on the July course, takes over again in the plate .
Mont Kiara was a bigger eyecatcher than the subsequent down the field winners in that Ascot race imo.
That Ripon run was shambolic and he's capable of far better,I'm not on today but if I hadn't changed my betting M.O. I probably would be GL.
That Ripon run was shambolic and he's capable of far better,I'm not on today but if I hadn't changed my betting M.O. I probably would be GL.
Nothing from him today, Denzil.
Whatsthemessage didn't miss the frame by far, but it was far enough to drop another 2 points.
One good week has been quickly followed by a very poor one.
Running P/L: 18.99
Whatsthemessage didn't miss the frame by far, but it was far enough to drop another 2 points.
One good week has been quickly followed by a very poor one.
Running P/L: 18.99
I'm currently doing as well as Panama, and having seen today's selections, I fear a 6-0 beating!
Iron Blue, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 2.35 Gowran
Iron Blue caught the eye on her debut on good to firm ground over 7f at Limerick last June, when after blowing the break and then taking a keen hold, she made good progress inside the final furlong to be nearest at the finish. She backed that effort up over 7f at Gowran on her second start when a running on second of thirteen behind one of Ger Lyons' who has gone on to be rated 91 this season. The third run for a mark saw her finish a respectable 5th of 15 over the same C/D on easier ground.
Her handicap debut over a mile at Dundalk in March was disappointing, finishing only 8th of the 9 runners and beaten over 8 lengths, when run style / pedigree (dam an 11f winner) suggested the trip ought not to have been a problem.
Iron Blue has had over 3 months off since, so perhaps all was not well, and while I wonder if longer trips will suit better in due course than this 7f, a chance is taken at a double-figure price with that earlier promise not yet forgotten.
Mnemonic Alexander, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.35 Gowran
Mnemonic Alexander caught met eye on her debut over 7f at Leopardstown last October, putting in some good late work down the outer and hitting the line well. After a couple of runs this season for a mark, she made her handicap debut over 7f at Listowel earlier this month when wearing a tongue-tie for the first time and the subject of strong late market support, but unfortunately for her backers, she ran into one better handicapped on the day but still shaped well, running on strongly to take second close home.
She's since had a run in maiden over 7f at Leopardstown where she failed to land a blow, but she's of interest back in a handicap off the same mark even though she has stamina to prove on this marked step up in trip to 9.5f, and it will be interesting to see if the backers return.
Impossibility, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.35 Gowran
This is perhaps more speculative, Impossibilty caught my eye on her third run for a mark when dropped in trip to 6f at Naas in April, when I wondered if she'd been at a disadvantage racing towards the far side of the track, but she kept OK to finish 6th of the 12 runners.
The handicap debut over a mile on soft ground at Killarney was underwhelming, but she's quickly been dropped 5lb and not impossible that the step up in trip to 9.5f while tackling a sound surface for the first time will help.
Iron Blue, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 2.35 Gowran
Iron Blue caught the eye on her debut on good to firm ground over 7f at Limerick last June, when after blowing the break and then taking a keen hold, she made good progress inside the final furlong to be nearest at the finish. She backed that effort up over 7f at Gowran on her second start when a running on second of thirteen behind one of Ger Lyons' who has gone on to be rated 91 this season. The third run for a mark saw her finish a respectable 5th of 15 over the same C/D on easier ground.
Her handicap debut over a mile at Dundalk in March was disappointing, finishing only 8th of the 9 runners and beaten over 8 lengths, when run style / pedigree (dam an 11f winner) suggested the trip ought not to have been a problem.
Iron Blue has had over 3 months off since, so perhaps all was not well, and while I wonder if longer trips will suit better in due course than this 7f, a chance is taken at a double-figure price with that earlier promise not yet forgotten.
Mnemonic Alexander, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 4.35 Gowran
Mnemonic Alexander caught met eye on her debut over 7f at Leopardstown last October, putting in some good late work down the outer and hitting the line well. After a couple of runs this season for a mark, she made her handicap debut over 7f at Listowel earlier this month when wearing a tongue-tie for the first time and the subject of strong late market support, but unfortunately for her backers, she ran into one better handicapped on the day but still shaped well, running on strongly to take second close home.
She's since had a run in maiden over 7f at Leopardstown where she failed to land a blow, but she's of interest back in a handicap off the same mark even though she has stamina to prove on this marked step up in trip to 9.5f, and it will be interesting to see if the backers return.
Impossibility, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.35 Gowran
This is perhaps more speculative, Impossibilty caught my eye on her third run for a mark when dropped in trip to 6f at Naas in April, when I wondered if she'd been at a disadvantage racing towards the far side of the track, but she kept OK to finish 6th of the 12 runners.
The handicap debut over a mile on soft ground at Killarney was underwhelming, but she's quickly been dropped 5lb and not impossible that the step up in trip to 9.5f while tackling a sound surface for the first time will help.
Was that a goal against the run of play for Panama George? Here's hoping you can increase the lead with the others
Cheers Lee, it might be asking a bit much to get a second given the form I've been in these last few days, but here's hoping...
Thanks NEC. The 4.35 looks a deep enough race with several holding decent claims, but at least the pressure's off for the day with the first one having gone in!
Think Raphael can go close in that one but tbh havent really looked at racing much today.
Absolutely kicking myself about missing first at Gowran as winners lto race is working out ok (Cardini ran well yesterday) 9/1 was a huge price and probably about 14.00 on here didnt have a bean on of course
Absolutely kicking myself about missing first at Gowran as winners lto race is working out ok (Cardini ran well yesterday) 9/1 was a huge price and probably about 14.00 on here didnt have a bean on of course
Andy Holding tipped Hillwalker, NEC, surprised it didn't shorten up.
I selected Raphael on this thread the last time he ran and he might have clung on for a place had he not been mullered inside the final furlong. RP spotlight says the stable have been quiet, but thankfully they were back in form in time for the 2,35!
I selected Raphael on this thread the last time he ran and he might have clung on for a place had he not been mullered inside the final furlong. RP spotlight says the stable have been quiet, but thankfully they were back in form in time for the 2,35!
Cheers Denzil.
Unfortunately it ends in disappointment with the two in the 4.35 not being up to it on the day.
But at least the rot has been halted for a day at least. 15p Rule 4 for the 2.35 winner.
10.28 profit on the day.
Running P/L: +29.27
Unfortunately it ends in disappointment with the two in the 4.35 not being up to it on the day.
But at least the rot has been halted for a day at least. 15p Rule 4 for the 2.35 winner.
10.28 profit on the day.
Running P/L: +29.27
Nice winner George 
Those extra place stakes for ew are killin ya though
Those extra place stakes for ew are killin ya though
Debutante's Ball, 1pt EW @ 10-1, 7.20 Wolverhampton
Debutante's Ball can't be a confident selection given her stable's continued struggle for winners, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price. She was highly tried last season as a juvenile after winning on her debut over 5f at Chepstow, running five times at Listed level or above but she wasn't up to it, though she did record a RPR of 90 on a couple of occasions.
Debutante's Ball also ran in the Super Sprint at Newbury last July when she probably shaped better than the bare result despite her finishing position of 14th, given she finished second of the nine that raced in the seemingly disadvantaged stands' side group, five lengths behind the useful Corinthia Knight who finished comfortably clear on that part of the track.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then and she's been well held three times in lesser company since last October (now rated 79 having initially been 91), including on her reappearance over 5f at Windsor when never in it and making only limited late headway.
It's hardly an encouraging sign that she's now dropped into a claimer, but she has upwards of 10lb in hand on her rivals on adjusted figures, while she meets Kion on 15lb better terms than when finishing 3l behind him at Windsor recently. She has to prove that she's trained on, is up to running somewhere near her mark and can handle Tapeta, but she looks worth another try at 6f and in the hope that she has benefited from her recent reappearance, gets the vote.
Debutante's Ball can't be a confident selection given her stable's continued struggle for winners, but a chance is taken at a double-figure price. She was highly tried last season as a juvenile after winning on her debut over 5f at Chepstow, running five times at Listed level or above but she wasn't up to it, though she did record a RPR of 90 on a couple of occasions.
Debutante's Ball also ran in the Super Sprint at Newbury last July when she probably shaped better than the bare result despite her finishing position of 14th, given she finished second of the nine that raced in the seemingly disadvantaged stands' side group, five lengths behind the useful Corinthia Knight who finished comfortably clear on that part of the track.
A lot of water has passed under the bridge since then and she's been well held three times in lesser company since last October (now rated 79 having initially been 91), including on her reappearance over 5f at Windsor when never in it and making only limited late headway.
It's hardly an encouraging sign that she's now dropped into a claimer, but she has upwards of 10lb in hand on her rivals on adjusted figures, while she meets Kion on 15lb better terms than when finishing 3l behind him at Windsor recently. She has to prove that she's trained on, is up to running somewhere near her mark and can handle Tapeta, but she looks worth another try at 6f and in the hope that she has benefited from her recent reappearance, gets the vote.
Thankfully 8 stood their ground and she ran just alright to be 3rd. It'll be interesting to see if anyone fancies their chances of improving one from Stan and claims her.
Running P/L: +30.27
Running P/L: +30.27
Vincent's Forever, 1pt win @ 9-2, 3.00 Beverley
I'll give another chance to Victor's Forever, who very much caught the eye two starts back under SDS over 10f at Redcar, being denied a clear run up the rail when looking like he had plenty to offer.
I selected him last time over 10f at Chepstow, when close to the off he was very weak in the betting, and although he wouldn't have troubled the winner Bid Adieu, he might have been placed had his jockey stuck to the outer instead of cutting inside where he failed to get a clear run.
Vincent's Forever is now 5lb below the mark he an off at Redcar, and while he has stamina to prove trying 12f for only the second time, the chance is taken with SDS back in the plate.
Frantical, 1pt EW 10 Newbury @ 66-1, 6.10 Newbury
This is perhaps on the speculative side, particularly as Frantical is eligible for weaker races than this, but a chance is taken at huge odds.
He shaped well two starts back over 12f at Chepstow when returning from a 3 month break, in a race won by his heavily backed stablemate River Dart, noted travelling well through the contest but denied a clear run and losing momentum over two furlongs out just as the first two kicked for home, but keeping on nicely for third once in the clear.
Frantical disappointed on his latest start over the same C/D when perhaps soft ground wasn't ideal. He's now back on his last winning mark, and Poppy Bridgewater who has ridden 5 winners from 25 rides for the Tony Carroll stable, takes off 5lb (one of only two apprentices able to claim in this apprentice handicap).
Kodi Koh, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.20 Ballinrobe
They seem to be experimenting trying to find Kodi Koh's best trip having run her over 10f, one mile and 6f on her last three starts. She now takes quite a marked step back up in distance to 10f having run over 6f on her handicap debut 11 days ago and this daughter of Kodiac has her stamina to prove.
It was the run in the 6f handicap that caught my eye, when she didn't have much luck in the run throughout the contest, losing a good early pitch, gradually being shuffled back through the field and then being denied a clear run in the straight, thereafter being eased and ending up finishing last of the 15 runners.
The distance change is an imponderable here, but a chance is taken on this unexposed, lightly raced filly from a good stable, at a double figure price.
I'll give another chance to Victor's Forever, who very much caught the eye two starts back under SDS over 10f at Redcar, being denied a clear run up the rail when looking like he had plenty to offer.
I selected him last time over 10f at Chepstow, when close to the off he was very weak in the betting, and although he wouldn't have troubled the winner Bid Adieu, he might have been placed had his jockey stuck to the outer instead of cutting inside where he failed to get a clear run.
Vincent's Forever is now 5lb below the mark he an off at Redcar, and while he has stamina to prove trying 12f for only the second time, the chance is taken with SDS back in the plate.
Frantical, 1pt EW 10 Newbury @ 66-1, 6.10 Newbury
This is perhaps on the speculative side, particularly as Frantical is eligible for weaker races than this, but a chance is taken at huge odds.
He shaped well two starts back over 12f at Chepstow when returning from a 3 month break, in a race won by his heavily backed stablemate River Dart, noted travelling well through the contest but denied a clear run and losing momentum over two furlongs out just as the first two kicked for home, but keeping on nicely for third once in the clear.
Frantical disappointed on his latest start over the same C/D when perhaps soft ground wasn't ideal. He's now back on his last winning mark, and Poppy Bridgewater who has ridden 5 winners from 25 rides for the Tony Carroll stable, takes off 5lb (one of only two apprentices able to claim in this apprentice handicap).
Kodi Koh, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 6.20 Ballinrobe
They seem to be experimenting trying to find Kodi Koh's best trip having run her over 10f, one mile and 6f on her last three starts. She now takes quite a marked step back up in distance to 10f having run over 6f on her handicap debut 11 days ago and this daughter of Kodiac has her stamina to prove.
It was the run in the 6f handicap that caught my eye, when she didn't have much luck in the run throughout the contest, losing a good early pitch, gradually being shuffled back through the field and then being denied a clear run in the straight, thereafter being eased and ending up finishing last of the 15 runners.
The distance change is an imponderable here, but a chance is taken on this unexposed, lightly raced filly from a good stable, at a double figure price.
Can yer fecking believe it, Zylan, selected twice on this thread, comes good at 14-1 as soon as he's relieved of his notebook thread curse
Disappointing from Vincent's Forever, unless he needs more ease in the ground (possible the ground was more forgiving at Redcar judged on times that day, and his win for Gosden came on good to soft), it's looking like he might have been flattered at Redcar, travelling well in his comfort zone off a steady pace.
Well that was a killer, me 66-1 (-R4) poke gets done a neck and a neck after hitting the front inside the final furlong, and with one having come out, don't even get the place money.
Running P/L: +27.27
Running P/L: +27.27
King Lud, 1pt win @ 11-1, 4.10 Salisbury
King Lud has shaped well in all 4 of his career starts so far, but it was his latest run over today's C/D (and first try at 12f) that prompted me to give him an entry into the notebook.
It was a class 3 maiden race that had some unknown quantities from respected stables contesting it, and he probably did well to finish second, albeit over 3l behind the winner, given how hard he pulled in the lead and being done no favours by being taken on by a Godolphin horse (Recordman, who was having his second start having shaped well on his debut in a Leicester maiden won by the useful Raa Atoll). He managed to see that horse off but had no answers to a Roger Charlton-trained colt having his second start called Polish, who came sweeping through having sat off the pace.
The form looks reasonably sound, there was an 81-rated Mark Johnston horse back in 6th (who has subsequently finished 3rd off a mark of 79 in a Windsaor handicap), and the well backed favourite Cacophonous, who had previously finished 3rd in a Newbury maiden behind the now rated 91 Al Muffrih, was back in fourth. The time of the race was over 2 seconds faster than the C/D handicap for older horses on the same card.
King Lud needs to settle better than he did last time, but he's unexposed at the trip and his mark of 82 looks a workable one.
Rag Tatter, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 6.30 Naas
Rag Tatter was initially rated 20lb higher than he is now in his days with Kevin Ryan, and while the gradual fall in the ratings has been justified, there have been some glimpses that ability remains for his current yard, notably when finishing a close up 4th over 6f in a Dundalk handicap last December. It was his run two starts back over 7f at Gowran that caught my eye, when I thought he perhaps shaped a bit better than his final finishing position of 7th in a field of 15 suggested, given from the widest draw he'd been sent forward to dispute the lead and stayed in contention until his exertions told inside the final furlong.
He failed to progress from that run having since finished well held over 7f at Roscommon, but he's of a little interest today in what admittedly is a very competitive 20-runner handicap, as a return to 6f may suit, he's now 5lb below the mark he raced off at Gowran, and the application of an eyeshield may benefit this son of Kheleyf.
King Lud has shaped well in all 4 of his career starts so far, but it was his latest run over today's C/D (and first try at 12f) that prompted me to give him an entry into the notebook.
It was a class 3 maiden race that had some unknown quantities from respected stables contesting it, and he probably did well to finish second, albeit over 3l behind the winner, given how hard he pulled in the lead and being done no favours by being taken on by a Godolphin horse (Recordman, who was having his second start having shaped well on his debut in a Leicester maiden won by the useful Raa Atoll). He managed to see that horse off but had no answers to a Roger Charlton-trained colt having his second start called Polish, who came sweeping through having sat off the pace.
The form looks reasonably sound, there was an 81-rated Mark Johnston horse back in 6th (who has subsequently finished 3rd off a mark of 79 in a Windsaor handicap), and the well backed favourite Cacophonous, who had previously finished 3rd in a Newbury maiden behind the now rated 91 Al Muffrih, was back in fourth. The time of the race was over 2 seconds faster than the C/D handicap for older horses on the same card.
King Lud needs to settle better than he did last time, but he's unexposed at the trip and his mark of 82 looks a workable one.
Rag Tatter, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 6.30 Naas
Rag Tatter was initially rated 20lb higher than he is now in his days with Kevin Ryan, and while the gradual fall in the ratings has been justified, there have been some glimpses that ability remains for his current yard, notably when finishing a close up 4th over 6f in a Dundalk handicap last December. It was his run two starts back over 7f at Gowran that caught my eye, when I thought he perhaps shaped a bit better than his final finishing position of 7th in a field of 15 suggested, given from the widest draw he'd been sent forward to dispute the lead and stayed in contention until his exertions told inside the final furlong.
He failed to progress from that run having since finished well held over 7f at Roscommon, but he's of a little interest today in what admittedly is a very competitive 20-runner handicap, as a return to 6f may suit, he's now 5lb below the mark he raced off at Gowran, and the application of an eyeshield may benefit this son of Kheleyf.
King Lud a NR after all that
So quite literally, just a 'Rag' running for me today.
So quite literally, just a 'Rag' running for me today.
It's another kitchen sink job
Sir Titan, 1pt win @ 8-1, 4.25 Newmarket
Sir Titan has to prove himself capable of winning on a straight track (all 4 wins have come round a bend), he's up 6lb for his latest win at Goodwood and pitched into a stronger race today, but I thought he looked a horse in really good form last time, asserting well inside in the final furlong and looking strong at the finish, with a gap back to the third.
He seems versatile regarding tactics and appears to handle quick ground well, while he's only had the eleven starts, so it's not as if he's an exposed horse. His last two wins have come at Goodwood and perhaps his main target will be something back there at the Glorious meeting, but interesting to see how he copes with this tougher assignment.
Teepee Time, 1pt win @ 25-1, 5.40 Leicester
Teepee Time had little chance from 8lb 'wrong' on her latest start at Haydock, but this looks more realistic, even though she's 4lb above her last winning mark and may not want the ground rattling.
Her previous run over 5f at Wolverhampton (albeit off her lower AW mark) had suggested her turn could be near again, disputing the lead and, after becoming a little outpaced in the straight, rallying gamely to close on the winner at the line. The winner Glamorous Rocket has since followed up on turf at Windsor, while the third Navarra Princess has since won at Kempton.
It could be Teepee's Time best chance of a win will be back in class 6 company and / or when the surface is more forgiving than it's likely to be today, but a chance is taken at the price.
Channel Packet, 1pt win @ 15-2, 5.45 Nottingham
Channel Packet's run at Nottingham over 8.5f 3 starts back suggested he'd be winning races for Mick Appleby sooner rather than later, finding plenty in the straight having been on the sharp end throughout and only being caught by one who challenged away from him down the stands' side.
The two runs since have been disappointing, though soft ground might have been an excuse two runs back here over 10f, and last time over a mile at Yarmouth, he disputed the pace in a race that set up for the closers.
Channel Packet has his stamina to prove for 10f, but being by a stamina influence (Champs Elysees) one would be optimistic that he will stay, and he's given another chance, with cheekpieces being applied for the first time.
A couple of speculative ones against the field in the 6.50 Tipperary
Wat Tyler, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.50 Tipperary
I thought Wat Tyler shaped OK at over a mile at Navan last October, given he stuck to the inside rail on a day when it might have been a disadvantage to do so, and the filly who finished just ahead of him having also stuck to the inner in the straight, Teo's Music, came out and won her next start at Dundalk (albeit she might just have appreciated the better surface). Wat Tyler also ran well on his next start at Dundalk, finishing 4th of 12 over 10.5f at Dundalk.
The three runs this year have seemingly been disappointing, but the first two might have been needed on soft / heavy ground having showed up prominently to a point, and last time over one mile and 7f at Leopardstown on quick ground, he showed up OK for a fair way despite having endured a wide trip from a wide draw.
Wat Tyler wears headgear and may not be straightforward, while it's not clear what his best trip (if he has one) is, being tried over 12.5f this time, but there has been enough in his runs to suggest there may be a better effort in him at some point and a chance is taken this evening at big odds.
Vienna Circle, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 6.50 Tipperary
Vienna Circle has more than enough form in the book for her former handler Mick Halford to suggest she should be up to winning races off a mark of 60, particularly as she has shaped as though middle distances will suit. There has been little encouragement however in three starts for her current yard, though trip and maiden company might have been excuses for two of those runs.
She didn't offer much under more suitable conditions back in handicap company on her latest start, so a leap of faith is now required, but she's given a vote at big odds, with her mark continuing to fall.
Aincent Astronaut, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.00 Tipperary
Aincent Astronaut is falling in the ratings and his penultimate run over 7f at Gowran suggested he could soon be about to take advanatage, when probably doing well to reach his final finishing position of 5th of the 15 runners, given the wide trip he endured from a wide draw.
The latest run over 7f at Roscommon when a tongue tie was applied for the first time was disappointing, so he's got a bit to prove again all of a sudden, but he's given a chance here at a double figure price, with the tongue tie removed and a further drop in the ratings to help.
Sir Titan, 1pt win @ 8-1, 4.25 Newmarket
Sir Titan has to prove himself capable of winning on a straight track (all 4 wins have come round a bend), he's up 6lb for his latest win at Goodwood and pitched into a stronger race today, but I thought he looked a horse in really good form last time, asserting well inside in the final furlong and looking strong at the finish, with a gap back to the third.
He seems versatile regarding tactics and appears to handle quick ground well, while he's only had the eleven starts, so it's not as if he's an exposed horse. His last two wins have come at Goodwood and perhaps his main target will be something back there at the Glorious meeting, but interesting to see how he copes with this tougher assignment.
Teepee Time, 1pt win @ 25-1, 5.40 Leicester
Teepee Time had little chance from 8lb 'wrong' on her latest start at Haydock, but this looks more realistic, even though she's 4lb above her last winning mark and may not want the ground rattling.
Her previous run over 5f at Wolverhampton (albeit off her lower AW mark) had suggested her turn could be near again, disputing the lead and, after becoming a little outpaced in the straight, rallying gamely to close on the winner at the line. The winner Glamorous Rocket has since followed up on turf at Windsor, while the third Navarra Princess has since won at Kempton.
It could be Teepee's Time best chance of a win will be back in class 6 company and / or when the surface is more forgiving than it's likely to be today, but a chance is taken at the price.
Channel Packet, 1pt win @ 15-2, 5.45 Nottingham
Channel Packet's run at Nottingham over 8.5f 3 starts back suggested he'd be winning races for Mick Appleby sooner rather than later, finding plenty in the straight having been on the sharp end throughout and only being caught by one who challenged away from him down the stands' side.
The two runs since have been disappointing, though soft ground might have been an excuse two runs back here over 10f, and last time over a mile at Yarmouth, he disputed the pace in a race that set up for the closers.
Channel Packet has his stamina to prove for 10f, but being by a stamina influence (Champs Elysees) one would be optimistic that he will stay, and he's given another chance, with cheekpieces being applied for the first time.
A couple of speculative ones against the field in the 6.50 Tipperary
Wat Tyler, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 6.50 Tipperary
I thought Wat Tyler shaped OK at over a mile at Navan last October, given he stuck to the inside rail on a day when it might have been a disadvantage to do so, and the filly who finished just ahead of him having also stuck to the inner in the straight, Teo's Music, came out and won her next start at Dundalk (albeit she might just have appreciated the better surface). Wat Tyler also ran well on his next start at Dundalk, finishing 4th of 12 over 10.5f at Dundalk.
The three runs this year have seemingly been disappointing, but the first two might have been needed on soft / heavy ground having showed up prominently to a point, and last time over one mile and 7f at Leopardstown on quick ground, he showed up OK for a fair way despite having endured a wide trip from a wide draw.
Wat Tyler wears headgear and may not be straightforward, while it's not clear what his best trip (if he has one) is, being tried over 12.5f this time, but there has been enough in his runs to suggest there may be a better effort in him at some point and a chance is taken this evening at big odds.
Vienna Circle, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 6.50 Tipperary
Vienna Circle has more than enough form in the book for her former handler Mick Halford to suggest she should be up to winning races off a mark of 60, particularly as she has shaped as though middle distances will suit. There has been little encouragement however in three starts for her current yard, though trip and maiden company might have been excuses for two of those runs.
She didn't offer much under more suitable conditions back in handicap company on her latest start, so a leap of faith is now required, but she's given a vote at big odds, with her mark continuing to fall.
Aincent Astronaut, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 8.00 Tipperary
Aincent Astronaut is falling in the ratings and his penultimate run over 7f at Gowran suggested he could soon be about to take advanatage, when probably doing well to reach his final finishing position of 5th of the 15 runners, given the wide trip he endured from a wide draw.
The latest run over 7f at Roscommon when a tongue tie was applied for the first time was disappointing, so he's got a bit to prove again all of a sudden, but he's given a chance here at a double figure price, with the tongue tie removed and a further drop in the ratings to help.
Oh my days, 9 pts staked Not sure I'll be coming back tomorrow if all these get stuffed
Not sure I'll be coming back tomorrow if all these get stuffed
Can't be helped some days there's lots some days there's not small ew accum required GL.
Good run from Sir Titan, just touched off after going odds on in the run. Just wonder if he'll better suited by a mile, and the obvious race for him would be the big mile handicap at Goodwood, though not sure his mark will be high enough to get in.
Ran well considering the pace in the race might be best being able to dictate but was given every chance by Hayley.
When he won at Goodwood last time over 7f, I thought he was particularly strong at the finish, and he has won over a mile previously. He's been done today by a horse who has the toe to win a valuable 6f handicap round Epsom, so no disgrace in that and he still looks like a horse with something to offer imo.
Tregoning can bring them along progressively remember that one Hayley used to win on Boom And Bust 70-108.
Just catching up after nosebag take it you'll be posting tomorrow WD
Cheers Denzil
Poor from the 2 in the 6.50, I'm sorry to say
Poor from the 2 in the 6.50, I'm sorry to say
WD George. You come up with some winners from some of the worst trainers around (I only know MM from his AW exploits though, as I don't touch the low grade turf stuff), hence the big prices presumably.
. You come up with some winners from some of the worst trainers around (I only know MM from his AW exploits though, as I don't touch the low grade turf stuff), hence the big prices presumably.
Cheers, a bit of an anti-climax with the others, but never mind.
17 pts profit on the day.
Running P/L: +42.27
17 pts profit on the day.
Running P/L: +42.27
. WD
Only 7 runners PHS, and as I didn't do it EW it obviously cost me 6.25 pts, which would have paid for the losers in Ireland.
Jun 28, 2018 -- 2:14PM, GEORGE.B wrote:
Only 7 runners PHS, and as I didn't do it EW it obviously cost me 6.25 pts, which would have paid for the losers in Ireland.
No, no George! Wrong way to look at it; re-hash that Running P/L total 1pt win only. Prolly looking at +60 instead of +42.
Obviously it would around +48 if I'd done them EW today
But I refer you to the opening post, nothing to take too seriously, just a bit of interest!
Whatever, it's around +47 for this month as the thread was -5 for April.
But I refer you to the opening post, nothing to take too seriously, just a bit of interest!
Whatever, it's around +47 for this month as the thread was -5 for April.
Active Approach, 1pt win @ 6-1, 8.20 Curragh
Active Approach made a highly encouraging debut on good to firm over 7f at Leopardstown last July, particularly given her breeding would suggest longer trips in due course would suit best, and in retrospect her next run when finishing third over a mile at Cork was a good one even though she was beaten 5l, given the two who beat her were the useful pair Magical and Mary Tudor.
Active Approach was then highly tried in Group 1 comapny when soft / heavy ground might not have suited, and although subsequent defeats were disappointing perhaps trip / ground weren't ideal. However, returned to a quick surface on turf for her latest start in the Ulster Oaks handicap over 10.5f at Down Royal, she produced a much better effort, finishing runner-up to the well backed Aga Khan owned filly Kalaxana, who could prove to be much better than a rating of 84, and connections had apparently been considering running her in an Oaks Trial.
This arguably isn't any easier against male opposition who still look open to improvement, and there's a suspicion she may not be the most straightforward (has been tried in blinkers previously), but she can run here off the same mark as at Down Royal and remains unexposed over the trip on a decent surface, while this more galloping track may suit better.
Returning Glory, 1pt win @ 10-1, 6.55 Newcastle
Returning Glory is in danger of going the wrong way after an encouraging start to his career, but a chance is taken under what may prove more suitable conditions.
He made a bright start to his career over one mile at Kempton in December, when from the widest draw he raced keenly in the lead, and although no match for the winner Highbrow, who was subsequently rated 103 having run well in Listed company, he kept on well for second.
Returning Glory's next two starts came over 12f, and although there is stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree, it was perhaps surprising to see him stepped up so markedly in trip given he's by Exceed And Excel and how freely he'd raced at Kempton. He ran well at Wolverhampton, not disgraced behind Ghostwatch and Elgin, both currently rated in the 90s, but his free-going tendencies were again evident on his next start at Ascot and he didn't see his race out. His latest run when dropped to 10f at Sandown was dismal, dropping right out in the straight, though the horse lost its action according to his jockey.
Returning Glory is now dropped back to a mile, returned to an artificial surface and with cheekpieces tried, all of which may prove beneficial, so in the hope he can run his race more evenly under Gerald Mosse, who rides him for the first time, he gets the vote.
Active Approach made a highly encouraging debut on good to firm over 7f at Leopardstown last July, particularly given her breeding would suggest longer trips in due course would suit best, and in retrospect her next run when finishing third over a mile at Cork was a good one even though she was beaten 5l, given the two who beat her were the useful pair Magical and Mary Tudor.
Active Approach was then highly tried in Group 1 comapny when soft / heavy ground might not have suited, and although subsequent defeats were disappointing perhaps trip / ground weren't ideal. However, returned to a quick surface on turf for her latest start in the Ulster Oaks handicap over 10.5f at Down Royal, she produced a much better effort, finishing runner-up to the well backed Aga Khan owned filly Kalaxana, who could prove to be much better than a rating of 84, and connections had apparently been considering running her in an Oaks Trial.
This arguably isn't any easier against male opposition who still look open to improvement, and there's a suspicion she may not be the most straightforward (has been tried in blinkers previously), but she can run here off the same mark as at Down Royal and remains unexposed over the trip on a decent surface, while this more galloping track may suit better.
Returning Glory, 1pt win @ 10-1, 6.55 Newcastle
Returning Glory is in danger of going the wrong way after an encouraging start to his career, but a chance is taken under what may prove more suitable conditions.
He made a bright start to his career over one mile at Kempton in December, when from the widest draw he raced keenly in the lead, and although no match for the winner Highbrow, who was subsequently rated 103 having run well in Listed company, he kept on well for second.
Returning Glory's next two starts came over 12f, and although there is stamina on the dam's side of his pedigree, it was perhaps surprising to see him stepped up so markedly in trip given he's by Exceed And Excel and how freely he'd raced at Kempton. He ran well at Wolverhampton, not disgraced behind Ghostwatch and Elgin, both currently rated in the 90s, but his free-going tendencies were again evident on his next start at Ascot and he didn't see his race out. His latest run when dropped to 10f at Sandown was dismal, dropping right out in the straight, though the horse lost its action according to his jockey.
Returning Glory is now dropped back to a mile, returned to an artificial surface and with cheekpieces tried, all of which may prove beneficial, so in the hope he can run his race more evenly under Gerald Mosse, who rides him for the first time, he gets the vote.
I've had a re-think and decided to have a second selection in the 6.55
Line House, 1pt win @ 12-1, 6.55 Newcastle
I noted Line House two starts back over 7f at Wolverhampton when she left the impression she may be worth another try over further, not done any favours by coming wide into the straight but sticking to her task well to push a John Gosden-trained filly all the way to the line. How reliable the form is of that 5 runner fillies handicap is questionable and there are mixed messages from it, but the third horse was Ortiz, who subsequently ran a cracker to be second in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Line House has since run over 8.5f at Nottingham and run poorly, but it could just be she's better on artificial surfaces and having won her only start to date at Newcastle, this may prove more suitable.
She has been declared to run in a relatively valuable claimer over 7f at the track tomorrow with an inexperienced jockey booked, and I'm not sure what to make of that, though it's not obviously a positive that connections are prepared to risk losing her is she runs, but she's due to take her chance this evening and that's good enough for me.
Line House, 1pt win @ 12-1, 6.55 Newcastle
I noted Line House two starts back over 7f at Wolverhampton when she left the impression she may be worth another try over further, not done any favours by coming wide into the straight but sticking to her task well to push a John Gosden-trained filly all the way to the line. How reliable the form is of that 5 runner fillies handicap is questionable and there are mixed messages from it, but the third horse was Ortiz, who subsequently ran a cracker to be second in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Line House has since run over 8.5f at Nottingham and run poorly, but it could just be she's better on artificial surfaces and having won her only start to date at Newcastle, this may prove more suitable.
She has been declared to run in a relatively valuable claimer over 7f at the track tomorrow with an inexperienced jockey booked, and I'm not sure what to make of that, though it's not obviously a positive that connections are prepared to risk losing her is she runs, but she's due to take her chance this evening and that's good enough for me.
If my maths are right, she's in to be claimed for £27K tomorrow, should she run there as well.
Poor from the 2 in the 6.55, and unfortunately Active Approach found the fav too strong in the 8.20.
Running P/L: +39.27
Running P/L: +39.27
Clever Cookie, 1pt EW @ 50-1, (5 PLACES 1/5th the odds), 2.05 Newcastle
Clever Cookie isn't getting any younger at the age of 10, but he was a decent third in Listed company in April which showed he still retains a chunk of his ability, and although he has struggled in Group / Listed races since won by the likes Stradivarius and Torcedor, he should find this easier.
He's only ever run on the AW once and that was in this race last year when from the widest draw he was dropped in, and but for a troubled passage up the straight, he might well have made the frame, ultimately doing well to get within 4 lengths of the winner Higher Power, who he meets here on 6lb better terms.
The draw gods have been cruel again and he has another wide draw to deal with, so will need them to go a decent pace and then luck in the run if dropped in again, but at huge odds a chance is taken EW with 5 places on offer.
Western Duke, 1pt win @ 13-2, 3.35 Windsor
Western Duke shaped well at Ascot on his reappearance when finishing 3rd of 14 in a 12f handicap and doing best of those who were held up. The run last time when finishing only 5th of the 6 runners in a 12.5f handicap at Musselburgh was disappointing on the face of it, but I'm not sure the race went his way, being keen and caught a bit wider than is ideal round there, perhaps getting racing with the odds-on favourite Reverend Jacobs soon enough, and then being done no favours when that horse wandered in the straight.
He's up in grade here and connections see the need to reach for blinkers, but in the hope they don't light him up too much, he's given a vote at the prices, with the Musselburgh run possibly not as poor as his finishing position would suggest.
Clever Cookie isn't getting any younger at the age of 10, but he was a decent third in Listed company in April which showed he still retains a chunk of his ability, and although he has struggled in Group / Listed races since won by the likes Stradivarius and Torcedor, he should find this easier.
He's only ever run on the AW once and that was in this race last year when from the widest draw he was dropped in, and but for a troubled passage up the straight, he might well have made the frame, ultimately doing well to get within 4 lengths of the winner Higher Power, who he meets here on 6lb better terms.
The draw gods have been cruel again and he has another wide draw to deal with, so will need them to go a decent pace and then luck in the run if dropped in again, but at huge odds a chance is taken EW with 5 places on offer.
Western Duke, 1pt win @ 13-2, 3.35 Windsor
Western Duke shaped well at Ascot on his reappearance when finishing 3rd of 14 in a 12f handicap and doing best of those who were held up. The run last time when finishing only 5th of the 6 runners in a 12.5f handicap at Musselburgh was disappointing on the face of it, but I'm not sure the race went his way, being keen and caught a bit wider than is ideal round there, perhaps getting racing with the odds-on favourite Reverend Jacobs soon enough, and then being done no favours when that horse wandered in the straight.
He's up in grade here and connections see the need to reach for blinkers, but in the hope they don't light him up too much, he's given a vote at the prices, with the Musselburgh run possibly not as poor as his finishing position would suggest.
gl with these today george might jinx them with a pound or two, nice total btw.
Cheers NEC, it's deffo been an improvement on May, and it might have been even better had me 66-1 poke Frantical not got there too soon the other night.
Poor so far today, Clever Cookie didn't stand a chance how the Plate panned out, but did make some good headway in the straight, albeit unable to reach a place.
Western Duke just looked a dog, walked out of the stalls and didn't look to fancy it much.
As I've a few points in hand this month, I'll throw a couple of darts tonight.
Genuinely Crowded, 1pt win @ 9-2, 6.15 Lingfield
I selected this filly last time having noted her at Lingfield (AW) the time before when she travelled well through the contest but didn't get the clearest of runs in the straight, in a race which has produced a couple of subsequent winners.
The run last time at Salisbury was her turf debut when she absolutely was not wanted in the betting, and in the race itself was never travelling, so she has something to prove on turf. She's dropped into a seller this evening and she has a bit to find on the adjusted ratings, but as the market signals are currently more positive, I'll give her another chance for the minimum stake.
Belledesert, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.00 Doncaster
I'll take a chance on Belledesert at the prices. She was disappointing last time, though might have had an excuse as it was reported she'd lost both front shoes. She had run well at Bath in a competitive fillies' Listed race back in April, when not far behind the useful Mrs Gallagher, despite not getting the clearest of runs.
Belledesert has admittedly since been a beaten favourite back in handicap company, finishing runner-up over 5.5f at Bath in early May, though the form got a bit of a boost when the 3rd Our Lord came out and ran a good race to finish runner-up at Salisbury.
It could be they'll find a race for Belledesert back at her favourite track Bath, and it's debateable whether tonight's 6f suits as well as 5f, but a chance is taken at the prices as she's now 3lb below her lowest mark and the ground should be in her favour.
Western Duke just looked a dog, walked out of the stalls and didn't look to fancy it much.
As I've a few points in hand this month, I'll throw a couple of darts tonight.
Genuinely Crowded, 1pt win @ 9-2, 6.15 Lingfield
I selected this filly last time having noted her at Lingfield (AW) the time before when she travelled well through the contest but didn't get the clearest of runs in the straight, in a race which has produced a couple of subsequent winners.
The run last time at Salisbury was her turf debut when she absolutely was not wanted in the betting, and in the race itself was never travelling, so she has something to prove on turf. She's dropped into a seller this evening and she has a bit to find on the adjusted ratings, but as the market signals are currently more positive, I'll give her another chance for the minimum stake.
Belledesert, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 8.00 Doncaster
I'll take a chance on Belledesert at the prices. She was disappointing last time, though might have had an excuse as it was reported she'd lost both front shoes. She had run well at Bath in a competitive fillies' Listed race back in April, when not far behind the useful Mrs Gallagher, despite not getting the clearest of runs.
Belledesert has admittedly since been a beaten favourite back in handicap company, finishing runner-up over 5.5f at Bath in early May, though the form got a bit of a boost when the 3rd Our Lord came out and ran a good race to finish runner-up at Salisbury.
It could be they'll find a race for Belledesert back at her favourite track Bath, and it's debateable whether tonight's 6f suits as well as 5f, but a chance is taken at the prices as she's now 3lb below her lowest mark and the ground should be in her favour.
A disappointing end to the month. Unlike last time, Genuinely Crowded was strong in the betting this time, but although she pressed for second place, she didn't get near the winner. She looks up to winning a low grade AW handicap imo. Belledesert never threatened and perhaps a handicap back at Bath will be the way forward for her off her reduced mark.
May: -5.33
June: +38.6
Running P/L: +33.27
May: -5.33
June: +38.6
Running P/L: +33.27
GEORGE.B • June 28, 2018 12:44 PM BST
Teepee Time, 1pt win @ 25-1, 5.40 Leicester
Teepee Time had little chance from 8lb 'wrong' on her latest start at Haydock, but this looks more realistic, even though she's 4lb above her last winning mark and may not want the ground rattling.
Her previous run over 5f at Wolverhampton (albeit off her lower AW mark) had suggested her turn could be near again, disputing the lead and, after becoming a little outpaced in the straight, rallying gamely to close on the winner at the line. The winner Glamorous Rocket has since followed up on turf at Windsor, while the third Navarra Princess has since won at Kempton.
It could be Teepee's Time best chance of a win will be back in class 6 company and / or when the surface is more forgiving than it's likely to be today, but a chance is taken at the price.
The winner and 3rd from that Wolves race have both won a Mixed Sex race since TP won, so there could be yet more to come from TP.
Teepee Time, 1pt win @ 25-1, 5.40 Leicester
Teepee Time had little chance from 8lb 'wrong' on her latest start at Haydock, but this looks more realistic, even though she's 4lb above her last winning mark and may not want the ground rattling.
Her previous run over 5f at Wolverhampton (albeit off her lower AW mark) had suggested her turn could be near again, disputing the lead and, after becoming a little outpaced in the straight, rallying gamely to close on the winner at the line. The winner Glamorous Rocket has since followed up on turf at Windsor, while the third Navarra Princess has since won at Kempton.
It could be Teepee's Time best chance of a win will be back in class 6 company and / or when the surface is more forgiving than it's likely to be today, but a chance is taken at the price.
The winner and 3rd from that Wolves race have both won a Mixed Sex race since TP won, so there could be yet more to come from TP.
^Correction, that's just the winner that's won again. The 3rd's win was the day before TP's of course.
Cheers PHS, luckily I selected her on the day that mattered.
However, that can't be said for Copper Knight and Battle Of Jericho, who both won next time out after being selected on this thread.
However, that can't be said for Copper Knight and Battle Of Jericho, who both won next time out after being selected on this thread.
Falcon Cliffs, 1pt win @ 6-1, 5.20 Windsor
There's a slight query about how quick Falcon Cliffs will want the ground, but her two starts to date for Tony Carroll have certainly suggested she's going to be winning races for her new handler.
She made an encouraging reappearance over C/D when finishing second despite not having the clearest of runs, and the form of that race has worked out fine with the 3rd and 7th having won since.
Her latest run when finishing second in a fillies handicap over 11.5f round Lingfield (turf) was probably a better effort than it looked given she was keen and held up off a slow pace, then was forced wide on the bend, before catching the eye with her finishing effort to run on into second.
She could be a hostage to tactics in this small field affair if held up again, but a chance is taken as she looks a filly open to improvement after just 7 starts.
Effervescence, 1pt win @ 8-1, 4.10 Windsor
Effervescence has to bounce back from a shocker on her latest run over 6f at Yarmouth, but as that looked too bad to be true, a chance is taken at the prices.
She'd previously shaped well on her 3 starts, on debut over one mile at Lingfield (AW) when finding only a Godolphin filly who has gone on to be rated 90, too good; then finishing third in a Catterick novice that has worked out fairly well; and although a beaten favourite over 7.5f at Beverley two starts back, she wasn't helped by being taken on for the lead by the winner's stablemate, but the form could be good anyway given the winner could be useful and the fourth horse has won since.
The poor run last time could have been due to the drop in trip to 6f, or perhaps more worryingly, if it was down to the quick ground then that would obviously be a concern today.
There's a slight query about how quick Falcon Cliffs will want the ground, but her two starts to date for Tony Carroll have certainly suggested she's going to be winning races for her new handler.
She made an encouraging reappearance over C/D when finishing second despite not having the clearest of runs, and the form of that race has worked out fine with the 3rd and 7th having won since.
Her latest run when finishing second in a fillies handicap over 11.5f round Lingfield (turf) was probably a better effort than it looked given she was keen and held up off a slow pace, then was forced wide on the bend, before catching the eye with her finishing effort to run on into second.
She could be a hostage to tactics in this small field affair if held up again, but a chance is taken as she looks a filly open to improvement after just 7 starts.
Effervescence, 1pt win @ 8-1, 4.10 Windsor
Effervescence has to bounce back from a shocker on her latest run over 6f at Yarmouth, but as that looked too bad to be true, a chance is taken at the prices.
She'd previously shaped well on her 3 starts, on debut over one mile at Lingfield (AW) when finding only a Godolphin filly who has gone on to be rated 90, too good; then finishing third in a Catterick novice that has worked out fairly well; and although a beaten favourite over 7.5f at Beverley two starts back, she wasn't helped by being taken on for the lead by the winner's stablemate, but the form could be good anyway given the winner could be useful and the fourth horse has won since.
The poor run last time could have been due to the drop in trip to 6f, or perhaps more worryingly, if it was down to the quick ground then that would obviously be a concern today.
Already backed your first one, ran very well FTO over C&D, surely improves for that back over C&D.
great june for you george very well done, hope july is as good for you
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