1000 £128 matched

on fave

Never headed

bloody heels fire .. somebody has been smashed

must of all got on the instant they fell

good start to the day for someone

quick fingers

great news horse up that's the main thing

wow some start for someone

no other sport get so many 1000 winners ir, what a marketing angle racing is missing out on, HBF heads firmly in the sand

The perils of laying supposedly beaten horses at big prices over jumps.

no other sport has so many cooonts trying to pinch pennies off the ill informed

Where's wazza to tell us whether it was a proper 1000 shot ? My guess is it was.

The ones trying to pinch the pennies there are not celebrating.

I didnt see the race...was it well behind ?

Anything can happen in jump racing so why they risk it is something only they appear to know.

first two were 10 clear at the last

if simon rowlands played IR Betfair, in running, PC would all be higher up the agenda. To be fair to him i suppose he got off his backside and did something on the issues he wanted.

Jan 20, 2018 -- 12:48PM, can wrote:

must of all got on the instant they fell

a huge percentage of the £128 is the layers money on the fallers being cross matched against the available money at 1000 on the eventual winner. no single person won or lost 64k on that race ir imho

Doesn't really matter how far behind as the front two hit the deck.

it does if you questioning whether it was 999/1 chance or not.

you wonder how many people are laying these 1000 shots been a few lately ,must btake some recovering from if its the same group who get hit

its the greed that kills you

PEOPLE WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP PENNIES, IN FRONT OF STEAMROLLERS

howard    20 Jan 18 12:54 
Where's wazza to tell us whether it was a proper 1000 shot ? My guess is it was.

true odds prob 10,000

Jan 20, 2018 -- 1:08PM, Willie Shafter. wrote:

howard    20 Jan 18 12:54  Where's wazza to tell us whether it was a proper 1000 shot ? My guess is it was.true odds prob 10,000

was 100% a 1000 shot. Needed 2 clear leaders to come to grief at the last in a juvenile hurdle on horrible ground.. 10,000 way too high.

yeah harsh one that. 2 fallers and still looked 2nd best

totally agree

Thanks. Backers probably needed it long term.

PERSONALLY,,,

I THINK IT WOULD STILL HAVE WON ,, WITHOUT THE FALLER'S

Only the other week in IRE did two leaders fall at the last and hand race to fourth that took third on run in.

someone said Never headed   how can it be for it to be in play at 1000 ?

1104/1

At the last 25/1 leader falls, 16/1 2nd falls, 6/4 it would beat the 3rd

10,000 is a bit extreme, bearing in mind the one in front was having its first ever race, and the one in second had never run over hurdles before. The other one was having its first race for 4 months, so was always a candidate to slow down on the run-in on that ground.

I'm not saying the winner was backable at 1,000. Just that, if you were aware of the type of race it was and the type of horses involved, this would have been a likely candidate for the 1 time in, say, 2,000, when a catastrophe happens.

So some of the brightest losers on Betfair won on the race ?

2 fallers in a hurdle at last is easy a 1000 chance..then the 3rd went 1/16

its an easy 10,000 chance

not to mention hutch been able to turn gold into water

Plus,you can add that Hutchinson had totally given up off the last bend,and was letting him come home in his own time. Wasn't even interested in getting 3rd going to the last. Could have pulled up on another day.

saw the closing stages on ITV Racing....incredible 999-1 But the price should have been at least double them odds, but that's always gonna be the ceiling price for Betfair, shame they don't raise it 4,999-1

Has anyone owned up yet to taking any or all of the hit? 

Bl00dy awful for someone.

ouch the 1000 layer was very unlucky there

WASN'T  ME AL
___________________________________________________________

    2018-01-20
12:47    114093864054    2018-01-20
12:26    GB Ascot 20th Jan / 12:40 1m7f Juv Hrd
Comm Charged 2.9% On Net winnings of GBP105.8         -    -    -    (3.07)         21,673.58
    2018-01-20
12:47    114093864054    2018-01-20
12:26    GB Ascot 20th Jan / 12:40 1m7f Juv Hrd / Nayati
Back         1.71    150.00    Won         105.80    21,676.65
_____________________________________________________________________

MUST'VE BEEN ONE THE MUGS WHO PICK UP PENNIES, IN FRONT OF STEAMROLLERS

i laid winner.

Someone ask Doziac how much did he lose on 6th jan?...3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th.

the man that never loses

most know the % goes down when you lose...done his bananas.

ZODIE THE FORUM MASTER OF ILLUSION

WAC.   

OH DEAR ,,, IVE SENT GOBBY WINKLE IN TO MELTDOWN AGAIN


YOU KNOW HE'S SEETHING ,, WHEN HE GOES FOR HIS COLORED CRAYONS

POST YOUR LAY DUMBO !!!!

TAR

at least i aint got to pretend...

zodie the monkey man..gon bananas.

Someone ask Doziac how much did he lose on 6th jan?...3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th.

the man that never loses

most know the % goes down when you lose...done his bananas.

ZODIE THE FORUM MASTER OF ILLUSION

WAC.

pathetic man.

POST YOUR LAY DUMBO !!!!

TAR

3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th and comm rate decreases

what a pathetic individual you are.

go polish the pretendee Bentley ydc.

If you owned a Bentley why would you make a **** of yourself on here daily ?

POST YOUR LAY DUMBO !!!!

TAR

cos he's a embarrassing attention seeker craving forum adoration...

3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th and comm rate decreases

47 monkeys running around the 5 acre gaffe..

wafdsc.

keep bumping my thread doziac like a good little sycophant..

aye permanent caps lock, pretend cancer, fantasy lifestyle

says it all

a complete 4rsehole

3% on 5th 2.9% on 7th..no post on 6th and comm rate decreases

I wonder how much he had to deposit on the morning of the 7th? Maybe he could post his deposits/withdrawals statement to clarify this matter?

no mouse..unfortunately that is kept surreptitious for obv reasons.

doziac vanished?

Horse Racing > Ascot 20th Jan : 1m7f Juv Hrd    Showing 1 - 4 of 4 Selections
Selection    Odds    Stake(£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/loss(£)
Nayati    *    1.98    55.00    Back         54.00
Nayati    *    48.95    31.00    Lay         -1,486.48
Oistrakh Le Noir    2.56    25.00    Back    20-Jan-18 12:44    -25.00
Oistrakh Le Noir    190.00    0.15    Lay    20-Jan-18 12:44    0.15
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    29.00
Lay subtotal:    -1,486.33
Market subtotal:    -1,457.33
Commission :    0.00
Net Market Total:    -1,457.33

First loss since the 2 fell at the last aswel in leopardstown back in December

Very unlucky.

If that's the only time you loose, then you won't be losing much.

*lose

Wonder what the statistics are like on the first 2 falling at the last as in (1 out of so many races)

WTF, shades of yesterday!!

shouldn't have happened for another 10,000 races they rteckon

Lasted a whole 27 hours for it to happen again Safe today tho


Horse Racing > Thurl 21st Jan : 2m5f Hcap Chs    Showing 1 - 5 of 5 Selections
Selection    Odds    Stake(£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/loss(£)
Cappacurry Zak    3.80    5.00    Back    21-Jan-18 15:47    -5.00
Cappacurry Zak    3.80    5.00    Lay    21-Jan-18 15:48    5.00
Head Turner    *    124.59    15.61    Back         -15.61
Head Turner    *    27.66    34.21    Lay         34.21
Nobody Home    *    44.85    9.91    Lay         9.91
*Average odds: On  Off    Back subtotal:    -20.61
Lay subtotal:    49.12
Market subtotal:    28.51
Commission @ 4.7%:    1.34
Net Market Total:    27.17

"true odds prob 10,000"

Well dodged RL.

3rd time lucky

ProSniper    21 Jan 18 16:07 
"true odds prob 10,000"

what were they then?

Tbf, 10,000 would seem fairly generous.

If you consider that the top jocks fall/unseat at the last 0.15% of the time, the odds would be around 666-1.

http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/01-February-2017

looked beat to me

Jan 21, 2018 -- 5:20PM, Wesdag wrote:

Tbf, 10,000 would seem fairly generous.If you consider that the top jocks fall/unseat at the last 0.15% of the time, the odds would be around 666-1.http://www.attheraces.com/blogs/kevin-blake/01-February-2017

I mean, 10,000 would seem rather short, not generous.

Pointless to speculate above the ceiling price(plenty high enough)

Computing fair/accurate odds for such an astronomical chance is nonsensical. Without significant data to estimate either way, those 10000 odds could just as easy be 20000, 50000..

Thats harrys weekly profit gone according to his book thats how much he makes in a week ha ha.

Oistrakh Le Noir had to slow down and run wide to avoid the fallen horses and jockeys, otherwise he would have won comfortably instead of losing by a neck.

Et Moi Alors and Harmonise were not hurt which is the most important issue.

2 horse to go at last hurdle is at least 50/1 x 2  = 2500/1

the 4th left 6-7L down on run in is easy a 8-10/1 chance (hence the 2nd went 1/16)

10,000/1 was conservative..true odds was higher.

Two juveniles to fall at the last, both having their first run over hurdles, side-by-side, all out, on desperate ground, would be shorter than 50/1 x 2 imo. Closer to 20/1 x 2, I'd say.

It's only a gut opinion though, since such horses rarely find themselves fighting out a finish on that kind of ground. The best evidence I can offer is what happened yesterday, and hindsight, of course, isn't much use when it comes to actually putting your money down on the day, as they approach the last.

next time one is 1.05 to jump last i'll have 25k on.

tar

25k on both of them at 1.05?

My point is that you had two of them under pressure, within a length of each other, all out and inexperienced. The one in front had never even seen a racecourse before Saturday, never mind being in that sort of situation.

If either of them had been 30l clear, and just asked to pop the last, with no pressure, of course they'd be nearer 1.01. But they weren't.

dont care if were rocky horses...still 50/1 to tumble

Fair enough. We both agree the favourite was too short at 1000.

The only dispute is whether it would have been too short at 10,000. And as you can't lay that price, it's all academic anyway.

PS: I'm still not laying anyone 1.05 about horses I think should be 1.05. Good try.