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The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term
In this thread I'm going to track some of my (perceived) value bets to see if I'm finding value or not.
Expect long losing streaks
1) 12 Moqarrab (USA)
Foaled May 1. $400,000 half-brother to 6f-1m winner Indian Annie.
Yard's 2-y-os have generally come on for a run this season, but he will need considering if the market vibes are positive
Note: all bets will be BACK unless otherwise stated
In this thread I'm going to track some of my (perceived) value bets to see if I'm finding value or not.
Expect long losing streaks
1) 12 Moqarrab (USA)
Foaled May 1. $400,000 half-brother to 6f-1m winner Indian Annie.
Yard's 2-y-os have generally come on for a run this season, but he will need considering if the market vibes are positive
Note: all bets will be BACK unless otherwise stated
Show More
See if I can keep track in an orderly fashion
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | BFSP | MyAvg | Place | £10@BFSP | £10@MyAvg | BFSPtot | MyAvgTot | |
| 03/11/2017 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4 | -£10 | -£10 | :( | -£10 | -£10 |
2) 18:45 Newc KHAMRY
I managed to get half the bet on @10's and it's now 8.0-8.2, will get the other half on if I can get 9 or better otherwise its just a half point bet
I managed to get half the bet on @10's and it's now 8.0-8.2, will get the other half on if I can get 9 or better otherwise its just a half point bet
How can you possibly hope to determine 'value' on an unraced horse, unless you have ridden work on it, or are close mates with someone who has - and also know something of the unraced opposition? There's a fair amount to be said for your cause, but your first bet was waiting on 'market vibes' (by which time, any, if not all, available 'value' will have gone), and your second bet is punting in pitch blackness, so I think you've not got the hang of the 'value' concept.
Thankyou for your concern ged, I reckon the results will let me know if I have the hang of the value concept in this context.
It's now into 6.8-7.0 so there must be some other clueless people out there as well
It's now into 6.8-7.0 so there must be some other clueless people out there as well
bah 3rd, got to 1.42 in running, thought I had it for a few seconds
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | BFSP | MyAvg | Place | £10@BFSP | £10@MyAvg | BFSPtot | MyAvgTot | Notes | |
| 03/11/2017 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 |  |
-£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
| 03/11/2017 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | -£15.00 | Only got half bet as it steamed right in |
3) Kemp 13:20 Labrega Win + Place
The favourite has good claims on this, but Labrega has some good pedigree and is where I think the value is in this race
I got the first part of my win bet on at 30, a bit more at 18, hoping it doesn't come in any more so I can get the rest on
The favourite has good claims on this, but Labrega has some good pedigree and is where I think the value is in this race
I got the first part of my win bet on at 30, a bit more at 18, hoping it doesn't come in any more so I can get the rest on
Not sure of the result, Racing post showing a dead heat 2nd and also 2 horses dead heat 3rd, not seen that before???!!!!
Ran a bit green, strong finish hampered by the wrong line which caused a stall when blocked by 2 horse in front.
One to keep an eye on me thinks
Ran a bit green, strong finish hampered by the wrong line which caused a stall when blocked by 2 horse in front.
One to keep an eye on me thinks
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@BFSP | £10@MyAvg | BFSPtot | MyAvgTot | ||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | -£10.00 |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | -£15.00 |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | -£25.00 |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 |  |
-£35.00 | -£35.00 |
get on black caesar in the last at kempers, at a lovely 6/1, and your search for value will be over.
1500 Southwell Master of Finance
betting patterns make this a bet
betting patterns make this a bet
"betting patterns make this a bet" 
if thats your reasoning then may I suggest you are FINNISHED
if thats your reasoning then may I suggest you are FINNISHED
100% losing record 
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@BFSP | £10@MyAvg | BFSPtot | MyAvgTot | ||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | -£10.00 |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | -£15.00 |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | -£25.00 |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | -£35.00 |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | -£45.00 |
Those betting patterns produced 3 winners from last 3 bets, ofcourse now I post it up it loses
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@BFSP | £10@MyAvg | BFSPtot | MyAvgTot | ||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | -£10.00 |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | -£15.00 |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | -£25.00 |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | -£35.00 |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | -£45.00 |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | -£50.00 |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | -£55.00 |
The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term
I'd make one adjustment to that.
''The reality is that if you find value bets and enough of them win then you'll make a profit in the long run.''
The same goes for finding poor value bets.
There's a message there.
I'd make one adjustment to that.
''The reality is that if you find value bets and enough of them win then you'll make a profit in the long run.''
The same goes for finding poor value bets.
There's a message there.
Can't really argue with the logic of your caveat, 'cept to think that enough of them don't win then surely the overall set is not the value being sought
8) Nott 13:05 True Destiny
Unraced with a winning pedigree
Unraced with a winning pedigree
time to give up the game mate, the writing is on the wall. more chance of me taking a $h!t in the queens hat than you finding value. looking for value in a 14 runner 2 year old maiden, let alone on a horse that is unraced, ffs, quick way to the poor house.
the only suggestion i can make is to follow me in on my filthy e/w double (just posted a fred)
KeMoh with respect...he might be backing losers here (thus far at least - good luck Escapee moving on) but let him do so without bringing him down at every corner? Seriously what's the point in that.
Your recent selections haven't exactly lit the world alight looking at the recent last two pages of this forum but nobody is telling you to give it up.
Your recent selections haven't exactly lit the world alight looking at the recent last two pages of this forum but nobody is telling you to give it up.
sweet jesus, studious, i have willie shafter commenting on every fred i put up, but i havent seen you condemn his comments. just trying to bring a bit of humour to an otherwise depressing fred.
13:40 Nott, Hombre Casado win/place
thanks Studious1
I can take the banter Kemoh, ( keep it coming ) but studious1 is right it can be off putting to many with more sensitivities than me
good luck
thanks Studious1
I can take the banter Kemoh, ( keep it coming ) but studious1 is right it can be off putting to many with more sensitivities than me
good luck
Nov 6, 2017 -- 4:12PM, Dr Crippen wrote:
The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long termI'd make one adjustment to that.''The reality is that if you find value bets and enough of them win then you'll make a profit in the long run.''The same goes for finding poor value bets.There's a message there.
If you found 'poor' value bets and made a profit from them long term they wouldn't be poor value ;-)
Why is it depressing because he's tipped 5 losers some of those being huge prices?
I don't think 'time to give up the game mate, the writing is on the wall. more chance of me taking a $h!t in the queens hat than you finding value'....don't think that's humour, it's just a put down isn't it?
As for Willie on your threads, I've seen him posting on a few on page 1 (not read this place for a while) - I don't know the man well but I know enough to know when he posts it's usually for fair reason so if he's doing that on all your threads - I'd be looking to you rather than him as to why. Might not be what you want to hear but just saying it straight.
I don't think 'time to give up the game mate, the writing is on the wall. more chance of me taking a $h!t in the queens hat than you finding value'....don't think that's humour, it's just a put down isn't it?
As for Willie on your threads, I've seen him posting on a few on page 1 (not read this place for a while) - I don't know the man well but I know enough to know when he posts it's usually for fair reason so if he's doing that on all your threads - I'd be looking to you rather than him as to why. Might not be what you want to hear but just saying it straight.
tbf to the OP he did say...
Expect long losing streaks
Expect long losing streaks
I have the magic touch of picking 11th placed horse at the moment
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@BFSP | £10@MyAvg | BFSPtot | MyAvgTot | ||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | -£10.00 |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | -£15.00 |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | -£25.00 |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | -£35.00 |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | -£45.00 |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | -£50.00 |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | -£55.00 |
| 8 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:05 Nott | True Destiny | B | W | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£65.00 | -£65.00 |
| 9 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | W | 46 | 40 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£75.00 | -£75.00 | |
| 10 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | p3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | |
-£85.00 | -£85.00 |
Ludlow 14:20 Boy In A Bentley to place @6.2
either going to pull up of try all y so 6.2 looks like good value on the place market IMO
either going to pull up of try all y so 6.2 looks like good value on the place market IMO
10th/12 faded 3 out
100% losing record so far, hope someone is laying all these 'value' bets
100% losing record so far, hope someone is laying all these 'value' bets
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@MyAvg | MyAvgTot | |||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | |
| 8 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:05 Nott | True Destiny | B | W | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£65.00 | |
| 9 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | W | 46 | 40 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£75.00 | |
| 10 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | p3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£85.00 | |
| 11 | 09-Nov-17 | 14:20 Ludlow | Boy In A Bentley | B | p3 | 6.88 | 6.2 | 10/12 | -£10.00 | |
-£95.00 |
Pity it didn't finish 11th Escapee, at least you would prove you were consistent! I'm sure you'll bag a cracker soon. GL.
Thankyou stewarty 
Much needed win, long time coming and still not in profit yet.
I'm on around 3% commission but I'll use the 5% base rate for the records
Much needed win, long time coming and still not in profit yet.
I'm on around 3% commission but I'll use the 5% base rate for the records
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@MyAvg | MyAvgTot | |||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | |
| 8 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:05 Nott | True Destiny | B | W | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£65.00 | |
| 9 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | W | 46 | 40 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£75.00 | |
| 10 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | p3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£85.00 | |
| 11 | 09-Nov-17 | 14:20 Ludlow | Boy In A Bentley | B | p3 | 6.88 | 6.2 | 10/12 | -£10.00 | |
-£95.00 | |
| 12 | 16-Nov-17 | 6:55 Chelms | Flora Sandes | B | W | 8.36 | 9 | 1/14 | £76.00 |  |
-£19.00 |
Hi Escapee, just read back some of my earlier comments on this thread and, upon reflection, they would appear to come across as very harsh. Therefore, I offer you my apologies... I commend anyone who is on a quest to find value and well done for sniffing out that 11/2 winner at Chelmsford! All the best going forward.
Hi Kemoh,
Thanks and no worries, as you said, Just a bit of banter.
You seem to have upped your game recently with your tips, keep it going, all the best.
Thanks and no worries, as you said, Just a bit of banter.
You seem to have upped your game recently with your tips, keep it going, all the best.
Good luck with this Escapee - my personal belief is that it will be profitable long term.
13) Chelt 13:50 Exitas @4.6
Rare for me to put up a favourite
Rare for me to put up a favourite
nope....
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@MyAvg | MyAvgTot | |||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | |
| 8 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:05 Nott | True Destiny | B | W | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£65.00 | |
| 9 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | W | 46 | 40 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£75.00 | |
| 10 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | p3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£85.00 | |
| 11 | 09-Nov-17 | 14:20 Ludlow | Boy In A Bentley | B | p3 | 6.88 | 6.2 | 10/12 | -£10.00 | |
-£95.00 | |
| 12 | 16-Nov-17 | 6:55 Chelms | Flora Sandes | B | W | 8.36 | 9 | 1/14 | £76.00 | |
-£19.00 | |
| 13 | 17-Nov-17 | 13:50 chelt | Exitas | B | W | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3/9 | -£10.00 | |
-£29.00 |
Escapee - try applying a 'not less than 5/1' filter with your selections. It should improve your long term profitability.
"The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term".
"The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term".
That's not reality - that's perceived theory. The long term can be a very long term indeed. better in my vire just searching for winners and leave the reality to the experts.
Yes, I would say 'long term' is about a year. Well it is for me anyway! Expect losing months, but for a successful system to show that it's working 'long term', you shouldn't have a losing year. If you do, then you need to rethink your system.
Agreed. And simply looking for "value" is one dimensional and only a part of any system/approach. At least it is for me.
Filters I believe are very important in my view. I have 3 filters in my system selections, one of then being the 'not less than 5/1' filter.
Talking of value, if you're able to get good prices the night before and then see the price of your selection drop markedly, then perhaps you would be justified in saying that you've picked a value bet. They don't always win of course, but at least if they do you would be happy in the knowledge that you have beaten the SP. There is very often a Rule 4 to contend with in this scenario, but even allowing for that you still may be able to beat the SP.
There have been cases where, say, a 10/1 selection picked the night before ends up as, say, 9/4 favourite and occasionally no Rule 4 applied. Fairly rare, but it does happen.
Talking of value, if you're able to get good prices the night before and then see the price of your selection drop markedly, then perhaps you would be justified in saying that you've picked a value bet. They don't always win of course, but at least if they do you would be happy in the knowledge that you have beaten the SP. There is very often a Rule 4 to contend with in this scenario, but even allowing for that you still may be able to beat the SP.
There have been cases where, say, a 10/1 selection picked the night before ends up as, say, 9/4 favourite and occasionally no Rule 4 applied. Fairly rare, but it does happen.
Facts says not less than 3-1, moke, you say not less than 5-1. I'm not saying either of you are right or wrong, but where do you get these odds from? Why not 5-2 or 7-2 or in your case 9-2 or 11-2? I actually think there is something to be said for what you are saying but what if you have a match or 2, 3 or 4 runner race where there's perceived value less than the odds you state? Surely it's wise to keep your options open and not apply these blanket rules? There needs to be a balance struck between strike rate & odds in my opinion. Unfortunately my strike rate works out around 22% which leads to constant horrendous losing runs, but I've tried to be more selective and it leads me to backing shorter price horses which is unprofitable. You are wrong about having losing years, one of the biggest professional gamblers Paul Cooper has admitted to having losing years but is up overall. Think he has won about £2 million on a turnover of £44 million.
McCoy Carp - yes, I admit the 5/1 rule is a bit arbitrary. It's just a figure I chose some years ago and it's worked out successfully over time to give me an ROI of about 28% average over the years that I've been operating my system. I did contemplate at one point of increasing the 5/1 to 8/1 and I think that that would have increased my overall long term profit. But the status quo has proven itself and the spreadsheets that I've created show a continuous upward long term trend (with the occasional downward blip), so I'm reluctant to change anything at the moment. A bit like if it ain't broke, then why fix it! Yes, maybe a few tweeks here and there could improve long term performance, but I did some tweaking in the early years and am satisfied that the system is pretty good.
Regarding losing years, well I haven't had one yet in the nearly 3 years that I have been running it, but give me another 7 years of results and I'll have a clearer picture, but I'm pretty confident that there won't be one, mainly because my system incorporates a daily multibet which is VERY successful once or twice per year. On one or two days per year I get a return of many thousands of pounds in one day which obviously is crucial to the annual profit. Miss out on that one successful day and it means a drastic reduction in the annual profit for that particular year. Having said that, my single bets are profitable long term as well, so both types of bets are very important for the long term success of my system.
Regarding losing years, well I haven't had one yet in the nearly 3 years that I have been running it, but give me another 7 years of results and I'll have a clearer picture, but I'm pretty confident that there won't be one, mainly because my system incorporates a daily multibet which is VERY successful once or twice per year. On one or two days per year I get a return of many thousands of pounds in one day which obviously is crucial to the annual profit. Miss out on that one successful day and it means a drastic reduction in the annual profit for that particular year. Having said that, my single bets are profitable long term as well, so both types of bets are very important for the long term success of my system.
In the search for value, the primary search is for a difference between the bet odds and the true odds of an event happening.
To exclude bets purely because the bet odds are in a certain range is projecting a human frailty onto a mathematical model, Good luck with that.
Good too get a discussion going
To exclude bets purely because the bet odds are in a certain range is projecting a human frailty onto a mathematical model, Good luck with that.
Good too get a discussion going
Escapee - in my experience, the reality has been that the 5/1's have only a slightly more chance of winning than the 25/1 selections. Looking back through my records, I see it over and over again, that my 14/1 plus selections seem to win just as much and sometimes more often than the lower priced ones, which is why years ago when I started I chose the 'not less than 5/1' ruling and perhaps changing the 5/1 to 8/1 on that basis would prove to be even MORE profitable long term! There's no doubt in my mind that that is the case.
But of course how I pick my selections and the source of where I get my information from is also crucial. Apologies in advance, but that's the bit that I can't disclose, but suffice it to say that it's not from any tipster or so called 'inside information'!
14) Newcastle 14:20
Diodorus, Unloved in the ring, I'm on at 18.5 and 20 now 23-24
odds on 4/9 winner of 11 runners last time out
Diodorus, Unloved in the ring, I'm on at 18.5 and 20 now 23-24
odds on 4/9 winner of 11 runners last time out
Unloved In-Play despite running 2nd for most of the race??
Finished 4th, showed some acceleration a couple of times in the final 2 furlongs, but seemed to ease off the pedal each time it became in danger of actually winning
Finished 4th, showed some acceleration a couple of times in the final 2 furlongs, but seemed to ease off the pedal each time it became in danger of actually winning
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@MyAvg | MyAvgTot | |||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | |
| 8 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:05 Nott | True Destiny | B | W | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£65.00 | |
| 9 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | W | 46 | 40 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£75.00 | |
| 10 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | p3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£85.00 | |
| 11 | 09-Nov-17 | 14:20 Ludlow | Boy In A Bentley | B | p3 | 6.88 | 6.2 | 10/12 | -£10.00 | |
-£95.00 | |
| 12 | 16-Nov-17 | 6:55 Chelms | Flora Sandes | B | W | 8.36 | 9 | 1/14 | £76.00 | |
-£19.00 | |
| 13 | 17-Nov-17 | 13:50 chelt | Exitas | B | W | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3/9 | -£10.00 | |
-£29.00 | |
| 14 | 23-Nov-17 | 14:20 Newc | Diodorus | B | W | 24.8 | 19.25 | 4/7 | -£10.00 | |
-£39.00 |
15) Chelms 18:30 Msaikah
$300,000 unraced Cumani trained horse.
A few with prospects on this race but wouldn't take much for this to sieze the honours
$300,000 unraced Cumani trained horse.
A few with prospects on this race but wouldn't take much for this to sieze the honours
Another Lemon
Maybe the title of this thread should be "The search for Lemons"
Maybe the title of this thread should be "The search for Lemons"
I wouldn't be depressed about your results so far at all. In fact looking forward to seeing how it progresses over the next 6 months or so and beyond!
Stop the search here. Lay ALL Henderson favourites.
16) Southwell 13:40 Serabrina
Got some on at 38, trying for some more
Got some on at 38, trying for some more
Forgot to mention odds on fav TALLOW is very much like;ly to win, but if it doesn't.....
Not sure what happened there?
Commentator said "They've gone without Serabrina"
Commentator said "They've gone without Serabrina"
Haeartside and Petruis 1'50 sedge place market small win
16) Wolv 15:25 Point North win/place @ around 46/11.5 ( I'm half on and looking to get a bit more on )
4 Point North (IRE)
4-time C&D winner. Latest win here in June. 20/1, last of 8 in handicap at this C&D 18 days ago. Bounce back called for.
Looking for the bounceback
4 Point North (IRE)
4-time C&D winner. Latest win here in June. 20/1, last of 8 in handicap at this C&D 18 days ago. Bounce back called for.
Looking for the bounceback
stone cold last, I got on at 46, 55 and lastly 90! which pretty much mirrors how it ran
18) Kemp 5:10 Global Pass
I'm half on at 14, will get more on nearer start time
4 Global Pass160,000 gns half-brother to useful 1m/8.3f winner Clotilde and 2-y-o 7f winner Marylebone.
Yard can ready a newcomer and interesting to see what the market has to say. Fitted with a hood.
Favourite City Gent has a reasonable chance but far to short at 1.9x, tempted to start laying this as well, awww phuck it
bet 19) 1 unit (£10) LAY City Gent @1.9 (not matched yet)
I'm half on at 14, will get more on nearer start time
4 Global Pass160,000 gns half-brother to useful 1m/8.3f winner Clotilde and 2-y-o 7f winner Marylebone.
Yard can ready a newcomer and interesting to see what the market has to say. Fitted with a hood.
Favourite City Gent has a reasonable chance but far to short at 1.9x, tempted to start laying this as well, awww phuck it
bet 19) 1 unit (£10) LAY City Gent @1.9 (not matched yet)
Global Pass, Ran reasonably but came into congestion 1 furlong out
City Gent 2nd
Level stakes its a wash, but I steamed in with a sizeable lay on city gent in-running at 1.62 so happy days
City Gent 2nd
Level stakes its a wash, but I steamed in with a sizeable lay on city gent in-running at 1.62 so happy days
| Date | Race | Horse | B/L | Mkt | BFSP | MyAvg | Result | £10@MyAvg | MyAvgTot | |||
| 1 | 03-Nov-17 | 12:35 NewMarket | Moqarrab | B | w | 10.4 | 11.25 | 4/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£10.00 | |
| 2 | 03-Nov-17 | 18:45 Newc | Khamry | B | w | 8.15 | 10 | 3/9 | -£5.00 | |
-£15.00 | |
| 3 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | w | 15.7 | 23.6 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£25.00 | |
| 4 | 06-Nov-17 | 13:20 Kemp | Lebrega | B | p3 | 3.75 | 4.1 | 6/10 | -£10.00 | |
-£35.00 | |
| 5 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:00 southwell | Master of Finance | B | w | 4.3 | 4.1 | 3/6 | -£10.00 | |
-£45.00 | |
| 6 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | w | 130 | 97 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£50.00 | |
| 7 | 06-Nov-17 | 15:50 kemp | Pettochside | B | p3 | 15 | 12 | 11/11 | -£5.00 | |
-£55.00 | |
| 8 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:05 Nott | True Destiny | B | W | 14.4 | 16.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£65.00 | |
| 9 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | W | 46 | 40 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£75.00 | |
| 10 | 08-Nov-17 | 13:40 nott | Hombre Casado | B | p3 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 11/14 | -£10.00 | |
-£85.00 | |
| 11 | 09-Nov-17 | 14:20 Ludlow | Boy In A Bentley | B | p3 | 6.88 | 6.2 | 10/12 | -£10.00 | |
-£95.00 | |
| 12 | 16-Nov-17 | 6:55 Chelms | Flora Sandes | B | W | 8.36 | 9 | 1/14 | £76.00 | |
-£19.00 | |
| 13 | 17-Nov-17 | 13:50 chelt | Exitas | B | W | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3/9 | -£10.00 | |
-£29.00 | |
| 14 | 23-Nov-17 | 14:20 Newc | Diodorus | B | W | 24.8 | 19.25 | 4/7 | -£10.00 | |
-£39.00 | |
| 15 | 23-Nov-17 | 18:30 Chelms | Msaikah | B | W | 17.9 | 17.5 | 6/11 | -£10.00 | |
-£49.00 | |
| 16 | 29-Nov-17 | 15:25 Wolv | Point North | B | W | 80 | 64 | 11/11 | -£10.00 | |
-£59.00 | |
| 17 | 29-Nov-17 | 15:25 Wolv | Point North | B | p3 | 13 | 12 | 11/11 | -£10.00 | |
-£69.00 | |
| 18 | 29-Nov-17 | 17:10 Kemp | Global Pass | B | W | 12 | 4/9 | -£10.00 | |
-£79.00 | ||
| 19 | 29-Nov-17 | 17:10 Kemp | City Gent | L | W | 1.9 | 2/9 | £9.50 | [:happy] | -£69.50 |
Sorry to butt in, but may I suggest that you ignore the result of the race in your analysis but concentrate on beating SP.
Because in the long run it is beating SP that provides the profit potential and judging by your spread sheet you are failing to do that and therefore WILL lose in the long run.
Because in the long run it is beating SP that provides the profit potential and judging by your spread sheet you are failing to do that and therefore WILL lose in the long run.
By taking a price that is bigger than the BSP.
Betfair is not pool betting.
HTH.
Betfair is not pool betting.
HTH.
How do you know if the price you're taking (to a reasonable amount of money) will be bigger than the BSP? By not taking BSP, how do you get a drifting price?
I'm merely pointing out what you need to achieve in order to meet the OPs criteria.
If I knew the answer, I wouldn't be broadcasting it on here, I'd be too busy implementing my own strategy.
If I knew the answer, I wouldn't be broadcasting it on here, I'd be too busy implementing my own strategy.
Sorry loper, but your analogy i.e finding "value" is flawed at best, no matter which way you look at it. Taking a price that is higher than BSP does not constitute value in itself.
Surely real "value" is described as thus: taking a price on a horse whereby the odds you back at are inflated in comparison to the real-term % chance of the horse winning.
For example, backing a horse at 7/2 when it has, in real-terms, a 25% chance of success (which equates to a 3/1 price tag) is value.
That price could be higher or lower than BSP, it doesn't matter.
What you are talking about, in my opinion, is the margin of value.
HTH.
Surely real "value" is described as thus: taking a price on a horse whereby the odds you back at are inflated in comparison to the real-term % chance of the horse winning.
For example, backing a horse at 7/2 when it has, in real-terms, a 25% chance of success (which equates to a 3/1 price tag) is value.
That price could be higher or lower than BSP, it doesn't matter.
What you are talking about, in my opinion, is the margin of value.
HTH.
I think you dont realise in the long term BSP represents the perfect odds, that is why you would break level before comm backing at BSP.
I'd love to see ANY punters results that show a profit at odds inferior to BSP.
HTH.
I'd love to see ANY punters results that show a profit at odds inferior to BSP.
HTH.
Chelmsford 19:15 Dirayah
somebody coughed up over £850,000 for this !
7 runner maiden race, none of the others showing much promise, so 7.2 seems reasonable value.
6 Dirayah (IRE)
825,000 gns sister to high-class 5f winner Mecca's Angel and very smart winner up to 7f Markaz.
Blinkered for debut but obvious appeal on paper and interesting to see how she goes in betting.
Also having a small tickle on Fire Guard at circa 150 as the inclement weather can through up some big price winners occasionally.
3 Fireguard
Firebreak gelding. Half-brother to several winners, including 1m-2m winner Ascalon and 1¼m-2m winner Captain John Nixon,
both useful. Dam 7f winner who stayed 1m. Bred to require further.
somebody coughed up over £850,000 for this !
7 runner maiden race, none of the others showing much promise, so 7.2 seems reasonable value.
6 Dirayah (IRE)
825,000 gns sister to high-class 5f winner Mecca's Angel and very smart winner up to 7f Markaz.
Blinkered for debut but obvious appeal on paper and interesting to see how she goes in betting.
Also having a small tickle on Fire Guard at circa 150 as the inclement weather can through up some big price winners occasionally.
3 Fireguard
Firebreak gelding. Half-brother to several winners, including 1m-2m winner Ascalon and 1¼m-2m winner Captain John Nixon,
both useful. Dam 7f winner who stayed 1m. Bred to require further.
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