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Trialing out a new system for the past 5 weeks and didnt think it would go aswell as it has done. Given its just a trial the stakes have been low which I was fine with at the start but, yesterday I had my most profitable day yet - which left me feeling frustrated more than anything else given the strike rate I had.
Im keen to up stakes but everytime I do I have some kind of mental block, thinking that this is maybe just a good run (4 losing days in the past 32, averaging 14x average stake a week)
Should I already be upping the stakes, or would it be advisable not to? At the moment every winning day is bringing me a little bit more frustration than pleasure but If a bigger sample is needed I guess I'd wait.
PS all of this is done In-running before anyone thinks im selling anything
All responses welcome (serious ones preferred)
Im keen to up stakes but everytime I do I have some kind of mental block, thinking that this is maybe just a good run (4 losing days in the past 32, averaging 14x average stake a week)
Should I already be upping the stakes, or would it be advisable not to? At the moment every winning day is bringing me a little bit more frustration than pleasure but If a bigger sample is needed I guess I'd wait.
PS all of this is done In-running before anyone thinks im selling anything
All responses welcome (serious ones preferred)
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^ "PS all of this is done In-running"
------------- Oh - this WILL be good ... Cue an enormous thread growing.  |
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With any promising in-running strategy I'd be wanting to up the stakes asap & get a bit of wedge out of it before the liquidity dries up even further.
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The lack of vital information in your post shows that you have little or no grasp of what is required to evaluate the validity of a system
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That sounded ominous onlooker :(
@mouse I have a large volume of bets every day, and whilst liquidity has dried up, ive seen more than enough in the markets to cover my stakes (even when I up them), also I cant foresee In-Running ever disapparing altogether (and im naturally pessimistic). |
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Hence why I posted asking for advice Olias, although it seems Ive come to the wrong place.
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OK here is a reply that is worthy of your post.
Any system should be tested for at least 3 months unless of course one of those months is a February in which case if it is not a leap year you should play it safe an test for an extra month. This all assumes you have not taken any holidays which should be added, Evening racing counts as time and a half so you could cut the months down a tad if included. |
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What do you think is required in order to evaluate the worthiness of a system ?
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I have an in-running place backing system that turns over about 10% of what it did about 3 years ago. Seriously, get the money while you can.
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Thank you Olias, that was some of the information I was after; as for your question, I would have thought ROI would be the most important aspect but again, thats why Im here, I dont really know.
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It is profitable if you bank the money and stop.
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Assuming that you are placing bets, you need to state how many bets you have had, what price all those bets were placed at or at least the average price, what return you have made to what stakes along with win ratio
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@mouse, as is my 'system'. Do you mind me asking what was your stakes 3 years ago?. Plenty of my place bets win so if liquidity became so poor in the place market, I suppose I'd try it out there (I had considered doing this now as I thought it may be more profitable) but I'm not sure I have the mental constitution to go through a long run of losing bets.
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@Olias thats going to take a long time to work out, will get it done this weekend, today unlikely given the amount of racing), thanks for the help.
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Stakes were up to about £200 3 years ago. Cut them right down since, done a bit of tinkering and now back up to about £75.
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At a quick glace, it'd be around 450 bets, average roughly 1.9, and 1825 return from average 25 stake.
Hopefully the actual figures arent too far off. |
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You are wasting your time asking such a question without providing that data. Given that you do not have access to that data and that you did not even realise it was relevant suggests to me that you should focus your attention else where until you at least have a basic grasp of stat' significance.
Sorry to sound so negative but bottom line keep playing by all means but stick to small stakes |
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@mouse I should mention the vast majority of my bets are on horses at the front of the market, which is why I was under the impression from looking at the markets now, that getting 200 on now wouldnt be particularly hard (also I play alot closer to the start of the race than the finish) whilst obviously the less fancied horses 75 would be a fair estimate depending on the selection ofc.
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Ok Olias thats fair enough, although if this win ration continues ill obviously have to take the leap (even if out of curiosity at the least).
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ratio*
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With In-running getting a feel for the markets is probably more helpful for determining staking than statistical analysis imo.
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Hubble telescope welded to your datsun sunny
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get the money while you can.
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About a 7 stretch.
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When i was a young man i asked a bookmaker how much money i would need to open a bookie office and his reply was,
i good bookmaker does not need money ,the money will flow in from day one |
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I've now created 37 losing systems, some of them are even losing regardless whether you are backing or laying ffs.
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