HELP WITH LAYING PRE RACE ...CAN IT BE PROFITABLE ON A REGULAR BASIS.

tell him not to do it and get himself a real life in the real world with real people ...


hth

thank you delta.i agree. but he is going to go ahead anyway and in was wondering if anyone had any pearls of wisdom that i could pass on re statergy.good luck m8.

pier to pier hear

Nope, no pearls at all. No strategy. No help. Why should we? Why would we? So we can help him to pick our pockets? No thanks.

What has "convinced" him? Experience? knowledge? I doubt he'll even make a profit, far less a living. Tell him to do exactly what he intends, but with a £200 bank, and then report his results after 6 months. Save himself and people around him a world of pain.

The key is finding losers and laying them @ the lowest price available.
All he needs to know.







Then when he finds platting sawdust is easier......................................

thanks betting help/geoff .i think one of his friends has made quite a lot of money laying football markets (unproven to me btw ) and he has convinced himself he can do the same.i will be showing him the posts that show him how hard or impossible it is but i can take a horse/mule to water but ....

Looks easy ,but only a few have the talent to make it pay,best left alone.

Does your lad post on here as Gaze733?

ty tanglefoot ...maybe starting this thread was a bit stupid really but i just thought maybe i could help him out.heres hoping he gets another job and forgets this venture.ps no mouse he is not.

23,

It can be done, there are plenty of profitable strategies.  However only a few have the mental fortitude to keep going when the wheels come off (which they inevitably will).  To make sure your son abandons this folly just explain to him that if by some miracle his hard work and commitment finally starts to pay off Betfair will come along and take half of his profits...

All the negativity on here, don't we want people using exchanges or something?

How about, yeh give it go, we could all do with the liquidity...

BTW, I do believe/know there are winning strategies still around, but sorry OP they guy will need to work them out himself (as we all do).

ty aviboyd and stu i feel a bit stupid now asking people to divulge their strategies for nothing when they have worked hard and invested a lot of time developing them gl.

23,

The most important thing to consider for your son is that the longer he stays out of work the harder it becomes to get a job.  My advice (for what it is worth) would be for your son to get another job ASAP and play a few strategies on here at weekends/evenings.  Less pressure that way and he'll learn a lot that will hold him in good stead should he wish to attempt BF full time in the future...

i couldnt agree more aviboyd.gl m8

I read a lot of 'guides' and strategies and can honestly say none of them helped - successful punters wont give up anything, that's what makes them successful. The only thing that helps is experience. If someone wants to dive into gambling with a bank of £20,000 I'd say 'go for it,' but I wouldn't recommend it.

I would let you have my strategy but this week my lays have been horrible-- some horses don't know they have to lose.

Good advice from Aviboyd-- find a job, try on here small stakes to begin with, maybe use software with training mode.

It is so easy to lose your bank in a flash---be careful.

Replace the 20 grand bank with 20 years experience and you've got a chance.

thanks all...i suppose im paranoid that if or when it goes pear shaped he is going to come round to tap me up lol gl all.

No probs 23nights - just tell him to study and work hard at it, the only real 'secret'.

If your son has got a "better-than-average" understanding of the following, he might have a chance...

1) Form analysis
2) Course and draw bias
3) Pace/speed analysis
4) Breeding
4) Going description (and the fact that it is measured by shoving a stick in the turf cf. golf and stimpmeters). eg Kirkland Tellwright et al are clueless.
5) A general acceptance that 90% of racing on this sceptered isle is based upon deception and disguising the true ability of a horse
6) Himself. Does he know how he will react when circumstances go against him? If he is down to his last £3k will he bottle it and bet defensively (never gamble with scared money)?
7) Can he genuinely think and act for the long term?
8) Will he be swayed by the opinions of others?
(This is not an exhaustive list)

Knowing which is the best (or worst) horse in a race is only part of the battle. If he hasn't got at least 10 years' experience, he won't be buying his kids presents for Christmas unless he gets an account with Amigo Loans.

Paper trading and small stakes trials are all well and good but (similar to taking penalties in a cup final) you cannot recreate the pressure. You have to be in the situation to know what it is like. Some can cope; others can't.

Good luck to him if he tries but it ain't as easy as a lot of people think.

6) Himself. Does he know how he will react when circumstances go against him? If he is down to his last £3k will he bottle it and bet defensively (never gamble with scared money)

Probably up there with the most crucial factors I'd say.

I would add 'bankroll management' to your excellent list.

From my memory of others' stories of suddenly having a large bankroll such as 20k all too easy to suddenly find yourself riding a 10k 'bet' that wasn't orignally planned!

Joined: 19 Oct 01
| Topic/replies: 6,465 | Blogger: Aviboyd's blog
23,

The most important thing to consider for your son is that the longer he stays out of work the harder it becomes to get a job.  My advice (for what it is worth) would be for your son to get another job ASAP and play a few strategies on here at weekends/evenings.  Less pressure that way and he'll learn a lot that will hold him in good stead should he wish to attempt BF full time in the future...


Very sound advice

23 nights.

Its long odds on your son will not make this pay in the long run.  Anyone can make a profit in the short term but to do it month in month out is extremely difficult.  Variance can result in long winning and losing runs.  Trading can help to smooth things out. 

Most people who make a decent living doing this are capable of earning more doing something else so their motivation for doing it is not money.

It is also a completely  different life style to the normal employee 9-5 job.  I've known some successful people give it up because they miss the social aspect of a normal job.

Even if you son can make a profit at the moment this is no guarantee of future success, things can and do change and methods that work today may not tomorrow.

Unless your son is prepared to wave bye bye to £20,000 and not complain he shouldn't bother.

Good luck....you'll need it.

I packed my job in 17 years back to go full time on here when the going was good. If I had another shot at it I would have stayed where I was or at least part time. Just over 400k up in that time, which isn't a fortune when you work it out.Never used quicker pictures just backing or laying There is too much against you starting out now I would say. I could list all the gripes but it would probably take all day. Play for fun would be the best way forward Imo.

Baron, presumably his son is content with the idea to try to take money from the markets (us)? - as an exchange that's what we're all here for isn't it?
Not sure why so negative - he might end up proving us all wrong for all we know! It's not an easy game, we all know that, but so what - that's what it's all about.

To answer one specific question from the OP - I'd say it's interesting why you mention laying only in the post (why not backing or trading for instance), but that making consistent profits is a possibility (caveats mentioned on here already) though perhaps smaller profits rather than large chunks of profits (consistently). If he aimed to make large amounts consistently, that would most likely be disaster IMO.

stu i only mentioned laying because thats what he told me he was predominately going to do.the answers ive kindly received on this thread are very much in keeping with my own thoughts. but i thought i would ask people on the forum who have tried and hopefully made a living out it.i will show him these posts if he hasnt seen them already lol.many thanks all gl

Advise him that only 1% on here actually turn a profit.
Then, ask him if he really thinks he is one of the shrewdies who have the readies, the knowledge, and the discipline.

Yeah discipline  - my fourth year on here was a losing one I very nearly went bust. Lost the plot for a while and the credit cards took a hammering, but it taught me plenty. Gave it one more year after that and turned it round. All aboard the rollercoaster

I've made a profit on here from laying but not a living. Nor have I ever tried to set myself a monthly target as I would usually have been terribly disappointed.Is he trying some version of a martingale system ? If so he'll be skint very quickly. If he's playing in the UK I would go for outsiders in non-handicaps and try and get on hours before the race,having established it SHOULD be an outsider and not chase it longer and longer. He still needs to be prepared for the odd really bad loss though.

Like that more werbie - wish people weren't so negative on these kinds of posts, even losing traders can become winning ones in time (perhaps arguably most do that!)

*most winning punters/traders that is

I would say no unless your in the know.How can he possibly know what's off and whats not trying. I lay inrunning and do ok but i've worked with racehorses all my life, that's my edge! what's his?

"I lay inrunning and do ok but i've worked with racehorses all my life, that's my edge!"

ITCANTBEDONE! If you lay outsiders, one will bite you on the bum in the not to distant future and you will be laying outsiders at sometime ridiculous odd. There was a 33/1 winner in the last couple of days that was layed on here at prices including 75!!! Tell your son to do something else with his 20 large. There is a reason there are not many grizzled old timers left on here! If the results don't get you, the odds will. If the odds don't get you, the premium charge will. I hope this clarifies the matter. ps. No charge for this invaluable advice. Get your son to thank me later for saving all his monet!

no edge- no profit

It can certainly be done, there are some golden goose systems around but nothing ain't free. Just don't use real money under any circumstances until you know for sure you have a winning system.

Your the man Mr 733! I bow to your superior knowledge!

He will start using real money just as soon as the golden goose has laid it's eggs in his holy grail.

I'm already using real money, but I wasted thousands over the many years until I found the geese and grails.