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What has he done to warrant being 3/1fav in the Gold Cup?
2 laboured 2nd places in the last 2 Gold Cups
laboured last run, looked awfully limited.
2 substandard Grade 1 wins (1 of which the Form has been subsequently turned around by Outlander)
A record of 7 wins from 19 (Starting fav 15 times) - including minor races.
ZERO Wins on Good ground and Jumping / Stamina questionable.
There is NO WAY he would have finished in front of Cue Card last year, and he has not shown anything to suggest he's progressed this year.
Whereas Cue card has shown this year he's still a class act (Despite Kempton) with conditions perfect today.
Native River has progress past Djakadam and will outstay him. Also Dickie will not let Ruby have an easy lead that has been mentioned.
Although a 'decent' horse with a place chance, the price is a joke.
2 laboured 2nd places in the last 2 Gold Cups
laboured last run, looked awfully limited.
2 substandard Grade 1 wins (1 of which the Form has been subsequently turned around by Outlander)
A record of 7 wins from 19 (Starting fav 15 times) - including minor races.
ZERO Wins on Good ground and Jumping / Stamina questionable.
There is NO WAY he would have finished in front of Cue Card last year, and he has not shown anything to suggest he's progressed this year.
Whereas Cue card has shown this year he's still a class act (Despite Kempton) with conditions perfect today.
Native River has progress past Djakadam and will outstay him. Also Dickie will not let Ruby have an easy lead that has been mentioned.
Although a 'decent' horse with a place chance, the price is a joke.
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I think people are worried about the form of the Tizzard yard - no wins in the last 2 weeks does not look great - agree that Cue Card looked like he was cantering when he fell but that is a long old way home - if you judge Djakadam purely on form there is no way he should be that short.
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Millions worth of liquidity says he's 3/1, are you suggesting he should be 5/1?
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Lay it now.
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Gaze733 17 Mar 17 08:13
Millions worth of liquidity says he's 3/1, are you suggesting he should be 5/1? Sounds like he is saying that. Some people read form and decide what price something should be, rather than following the market like sheep. |
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Well I know of two pros who are backing him, so I'll just stay off.
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It depends which horse turns up. The horse at Leipardstown at Christmas looked laboured and past his best. The same run as last years gold cup might be good enough in a sub standard year. I get the feeling that 1 or 2 will be too good for him again though and 3/1 is a crazy price.
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I completely agree about Djakadam. The value of the each-way angle was all about the opposition dropping away. Two solid Gold Cup runs but not much else and although people mention his age there is no indication that he is progressing. If you have backed him you have to hope he can produce something similar to last year and that will be good enough.
I wouldn't agree about Cue Card. He was visually impressive at Haydock but in hindsight how much did he actually achieve? He looked laboured in victory last time and had previously ran at least a stone below form at Kempton. The best he can hope for is a place. |
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so your basing your betting on a sh head been the difference between been in and out of form,there,ll be a few stables hope there beaten a sh head in a championship race whilst out of form
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In all fairness EL11 did put up his reasons ,and to be honest some of his points are correct.The guy has took the time time work out Djakadam's form and come too his own conclusions re its price .
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I'm not 100% sure who will win. I backed Djakadam about 2 months ago @11/2 just because I knew it would go off around 7/2. It's 3/1 now with one bookie 11/4. So I'm please with my vaule bet.
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about 12 weeks ago it was 14,s 16 to 1
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^ If you really knew he'd go off much lower you should've traded. Why bet 50 and hope for the best when you can bet 2k and cash out much more risk free?
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Yes, I'm sure getting 2k on ante post must be easy for everyone.
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You'd want to be crazy having 2k ante post,look whats happened this year!
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UNLESS your acting on inside info at a huge price another festival where ant post even nrnb has proven to be a noo no for most,just off my head
cue card native river politilogue presenting percy defin di soul all available at double their pre festival odds on the day |
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Price mainly due to the trainer being more bullish about him this year, but also the fact they had 4 winners yesterday and the Irish horses generally cleaning up.
Personally I like Native River. Time and gain history has favoured thorough stayers in this race. |
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I wouldn't agree about Cue Card. He was visually impressive at Haydock but in hindsight how much did he actually achieve? He looked laboured in victory last time and had previously ran at least a stone below form at Kempton. The best he can hope for is a place.
you must have been watching a different race to me, thought cue card was impressive last time. |
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No Roida yet?
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if this race was only between the irish runners and ran in ireland today wouldnt djakadam be only 3rd fav at best in the betting,betting tells us the mullins mob no something we dont but if your not already involved you surely cant get involved at this price
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I was lumping on Djakadam in last years race in running as he had a lovely stalking trip and was jumping beautifully. Cue Card and Don Cossack both made mistakes and still would have stuffed him. Not sure how this horse can win a race likely to be a battle. Probably win lay and place back the way to go.
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He drifted like a barge in the betting on the day of last years race. Clearly wasn't 100% that day whereas today he clearly is. This is the trainer speaking, not just the betting.
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Surely Cue Card is a racing certainty apart from his age?
Is it worth looking at the others if he turns up fit? Which he will be. |
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Perhaps people aren't aware Cue Card wasn't right following his Kempton run. Which he has since (Impressively in my opinion) Shown that he's back in form again.
Take that King George run out and he'd be a very short priced favourite today... |
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only leaves the jock,ground,trip,hill and jumping to worry about then,
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And the main one 1tp - an act of God if form means anything.
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missed out age
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Good job, but I'd be nervous watching that lay live.
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Bambi's got more fight than Djakadam.
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29k matched at 1.1 in the place market.
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I laid win and backed place…. never got out. Always one to come and do yer...
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Carbon copy of his run last year. I thought Ruby attacked Native River a tad early, but I suppose you need to do something before the pack get to you.
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Just realised something about Djakadam which might make him an interesting bet for next year's Gold Cup at what might be a huge price when he'll be at a peak age of 9yo - he's been 2nd, 2nd & 4th now in race...exactly the same form figures as The Fellow had before winning at his fourth attempt.
Because of his failures, most will figure he's had his chance and is fully exposed...if his jumping can be improved he's not a forlorn hope - I might be tempted into an ante-post bet when the odds appear. |
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i,m sure someone will tell you the defination of madness,thistlecrack,native river,yorkhill,minella rocco,empire of dirt,vas de lido,theres 7 he,ll finish behind
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I bet you thought the same in 1994...I hope you've got the gonads to lay me the massive price I'll be looking for when the market opens.
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s.kenbo 17 Mar 17 13:09
No Roida yet?  |
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Not sure they can improve his jumping. It look his greatest asset.
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Next years winner was not in that race today
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TW - like Cue Card, he's never reassured me with his fencing despite being able to put in the occasional blemish-free round.
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