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Hi guys, This seems to be something that i am currently very very poor at. It is the main thing within something in betting on something like betfair.
I was wondering if anyone had any decent tips on bankroll management.
I seem to make money, then lose a bet. Then end up betting on stuff to make my money back, i know the answer is within itself but its harder than it sounds....?
Thanks, Fullflush.
I was wondering if anyone had any decent tips on bankroll management.
I seem to make money, then lose a bet. Then end up betting on stuff to make my money back, i know the answer is within itself but its harder than it sounds....?
Thanks, Fullflush.
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Two tips.
Firstly, the money you use for betting must have zero utiity in everyday life. Keep it separate, let it stand or fall on your ability to win, but never never think "if this wins Ill treat myself".
Secondly, the hard work is in finding that winner, let that be the quest and don't get embroiled in how much to have on. It detracts from the pleasure when you think you've underbet a winner and adds to the aony when you've overbet a loser. Make life easire for yourself - a bet is a bet is a bet - level stakes EVERY TIME.
Firstly, the money you use for betting must have zero utiity in everyday life. Keep it separate, let it stand or fall on your ability to win, but never never think "if this wins Ill treat myself".
Secondly, the hard work is in finding that winner, let that be the quest and don't get embroiled in how much to have on. It detracts from the pleasure when you think you've underbet a winner and adds to the aony when you've overbet a loser. Make life easire for yourself - a bet is a bet is a bet - level stakes EVERY TIME.
Firstly, the money you use for betting must have zero utiity in everyday life.
don't encourage the money launderers imo
don't encourage the money launderers imo
ok so u start with lets say £100 you are laying , after 6 successful lays you now have £160 your next lay wins you are now on £110, even though you are still up £10 in your mind you have just lost £50 your head blows off you do a lay you never normally would cos your chasing and its a shorty which invaribly wins you now have £8 left, the trick is to go make a cup of tea after the 1st lost calm down and start again , there u go ive solved the prob of chasing 
All those who suffer from this are still emotionally immature. Those who A) Haven't fully accepted the risk of losing. B) Have unrealistic expectations where chance is concerned. Emotionally mature punters are able to see the bigger picture and are therefore unaffected by any individual/short-term series of results. Studies have suggested that losing bets have at least twice as great an impact( 
) over winning bets( 
) The only way that is possible is if your weight of expectation is grossly loaded in favour of the +side. To an extent, that is understandable coming from naive, inexperienced punters who happen to be relatively new to the game. But to any experienced, seasoned punter, it becomes inexcusable not to learn off past mistakes. Once you understand you're not entitled to win any bet. Once you're not ignorant enough to treat the market like it's one big fool. Once you understand that having probability in your favour is not a guarantee to win on command,, there's little excuses left. Overestimation is a huge problem for so many ignorant punters. The type that are backing 7/1 shots and actually expecting them to win like 1/2 shots. I watched a moron a couple of day ago, a horse had been gambled from 11/1 down to 7/1, he didn't hesitate to whack £50 on it..and after watching it run a stinker and be completely tailed off, he was ranting and raving while chucking bookie pens all over the place..furiously demanding to know how so much money could be on a horse and yet he didn't even "get a run for his money". Moronic behaviour which suggests he hadn't fully accepted it was entirely possible for that horse to run as bad(note A and B). Fully accepting the brutal uncertainty of any wager placed in any game of chance(let alone one with a ton of variables) is the only way you'll rid yourself of continual upsets/mistakes. That, combined with consistent application toward your edge(proven, long-term) is key to fulfilling your investment potential.
) over winning bets( ) The only way that is possible is if your weight of expectation is grossly loaded in favour of the +side. To an extent, that is understandable coming from naive, inexperienced punters who happen to be relatively new to the game. But to any experienced, seasoned punter, it becomes inexcusable not to learn off past mistakes. Once you understand you're not entitled to win any bet. Once you're not ignorant enough to treat the market like it's one big fool. Once you understand that having probability in your favour is not a guarantee to win on command,, there's little excuses left. Overestimation is a huge problem for so many ignorant punters. The type that are backing 7/1 shots and actually expecting them to win like 1/2 shots. I watched a moron a couple of day ago, a horse had been gambled from 11/1 down to 7/1, he didn't hesitate to whack £50 on it..and after watching it run a stinker and be completely tailed off, he was ranting and raving while chucking bookie pens all over the place..furiously demanding to know how so much money could be on a horse and yet he didn't even "get a run for his money". Moronic behaviour which suggests he hadn't fully accepted it was entirely possible for that horse to run as bad(note A and B). Fully accepting the brutal uncertainty of any wager placed in any game of chance(let alone one with a ton of variables) is the only way you'll rid yourself of continual upsets/mistakes. That, combined with consistent application toward your edge(proven, long-term) is key to fulfilling your investment potential.
and then there are the 1/2 shots supposed to win and for what reason don't-- that is against you as well.
fantastic piece prosniper,how many people will this go right over there head.
michael59 02 Jan 17 01:48
ok so u start with lets say £100 you are laying , after 6 successful lays you now have £160 your next lay wins you are now on £110, even though you are still up £10 in your mind you have just lost £50 your head blows off you do a lay you never normally would cos your chasing and its a shorty which invaribly wins you now have £8 left, the trick is to go make a cup of tea after the 1st lost calm down and start again , there u go ive solved the prob of chasing
If you are laying or backing to lose a third of your bank in a single bet there is only one way it will end up.
ok so u start with lets say £100 you are laying , after 6 successful lays you now have £160 your next lay wins you are now on £110, even though you are still up £10 in your mind you have just lost £50 your head blows off you do a lay you never normally would cos your chasing and its a shorty which invaribly wins you now have £8 left, the trick is to go make a cup of tea after the 1st lost calm down and start again , there u go ive solved the prob of chasing
If you are laying or backing to lose a third of your bank in a single bet there is only one way it will end up.
Get the right prices and the winners will take care of themselves (LONGTERM).
So many fail to understand the above Magic.
many think its all about selection and nothing to do with price
naysayers will state it doesnt matter what price you get if your backing winners/laying losers which is totally untrue
Would you bet heads on a coin toss @ 4/5 of course not but would take 5/4 all day
many think its all about selection and nothing to do with price
naysayers will state it doesnt matter what price you get if your backing winners/laying losers which is totally untrue
Would you bet heads on a coin toss @ 4/5 of course not but would take 5/4 all day
The trouble is some would take 4/6 on heads if tails came up 4 times on the bounce before!
if you pick your bets the day before, then come the day of the race win or lose, you dont bet on the other races that day, completely cuts out
any desire to chase any losing bets, there you have discipline in a nutshell.
any desire to chase any losing bets, there you have discipline in a nutshell.
Facts' little green light has gone out which means he's logged off. Based on his comment below I'm sure he'll return to this thread at a later date and clear up stridingedge's query.
Facts 20 Jun 16 23:04
I can guarantee you that I win more than you do in the long term bigmart.
I have records that show my bets, and all the returns from them.
Facts 20 Jun 16 23:04
I can guarantee you that I win more than you do in the long term bigmart.
I have records that show my bets, and all the returns from them.
If you're going to bet, then always bet WELL beyond your means, that way, when you win, you win BIG and it really means something.
top2rated
someone could of course hit this rate in the short run (in terms of selections not time of course) but expecting to hit double the expected rate for them odds is as crzy a notion as you'll see on here today.
an excel sheet won't cut it for me either i'm afraid.
put it this way after 200 selections what price would you give anyone to hit 50 7/1 winners ???
someone could of course hit this rate in the short run (in terms of selections not time of course) but expecting to hit double the expected rate for them odds is as crzy a notion as you'll see on here today.
an excel sheet won't cut it for me either i'm afraid.
put it this way after 200 selections what price would you give anyone to hit 50 7/1 winners ???
Find Mart as he had this sussed, Small bets on the loosers, Big bets on the winners
"and then there are the 1/2 shots supposed to win and for what reason don't-- that is against you as well."
What is so special about 1/2 shots? other than the fact the market has concluded its chance of winning to be 2 times greater than its loss. If I put you in front of 3 doors and force you to open one...behind 2 of them stand sexy French pole dancers waiting to give you the wOrks..while the other lies a nasty bear waiting to tear your limbs off.....the chance is greater that you'll be having a good time with a dancer..but the chance of becoming bear food is hardly "implausible". Of course, when you're backing 1/2 shots you're of the belief(or at least should be) that the implied chance is wrong, but how wrong can it truly be? when we know that by&large the market is fairly efficient. This is where overestimation rears its head..with many believing the market is stupid enough to present them with a constant stream of 1/2 shots that should be 1/10 shots. Or 7/1 shots that should be 3/1 shots. Eh, Facts?
What is so special about 1/2 shots? other than the fact the market has concluded its chance of winning to be 2 times greater than its loss. If I put you in front of 3 doors and force you to open one...behind 2 of them stand sexy French pole dancers waiting to give you the wOrks..while the other lies a nasty bear waiting to tear your limbs off.....the chance is greater that you'll be having a good time with a dancer..but the chance of becoming bear food is hardly "implausible". Of course, when you're backing 1/2 shots you're of the belief(or at least should be) that the implied chance is wrong, but how wrong can it truly be? when we know that by&large the market is fairly efficient. This is where overestimation rears its head..with many believing the market is stupid enough to present them with a constant stream of 1/2 shots that should be 1/10 shots. Or 7/1 shots that should be 3/1 shots. Eh, Facts?
will always remember the guy morning -line who won scoop 6
his heinz & e/w accum would of made him rich
but he never did it that day
he was nearly in tears
scoop 6 return was about 20% of the bet
his heinz & e/w accum would of made him rich
but he never did it that day
he was nearly in tears
scoop 6 return was about 20% of the bet
Jan 2, 2017 -- 12:43PM, stridingedge wrote:
top2ratedsomeone could of course hit this rate in the short run (in terms of selections not time of course) but expecting to hit double the expected rate for them odds is as crzy a notion as you'll see on here today.an excel sheet won't cut it for me either i'm afraid.put it this way after 200 selections what price would you give anyone to hit 50 7/1 winners ???
for 200 bets @ 7/1
50 winners is over 47,000/1 chance
I think that the OP wants a staking plan to stick to.
*sorry, that's for 6/1 shots
7/1 shots is over 2,000,000/1
7/1 shots is over 2,000,000/1
Last 8 years
Class 1 and 2 Handicaps
Total Selections 1203
Wins 339
Ratio 35.5 %
Total SP 2223
Average. SP. 6.58 ( 13/2)
Class 1 and 2 Handicaps
Total Selections 1203
Wins 339
Ratio 35.5 %
Total SP 2223
Average. SP. 6.58 ( 13/2)
facts
can you copy and paste the odds of all 1203 selections
thanks
can you copy and paste the odds of all 1203 selections
thanks
thought so
there aren't any selections, just a load of bollox that you've made up
there aren't any selections, just a load of bollox that you've made up
Sorry, but I'm not going to go through three A5 books, taking photos of every page.
don't need any photos, just need you to post the odds of the selections
you found it easy enough to add up the total SPs of these selections so they should be readily available
you found it easy enough to add up the total SPs of these selections so they should be readily available
over 30% winners are fav
80% winners first 3 in betting
that leaves 20% 5/1 +
80% winners first 3 in betting
that leaves 20% 5/1 +
X money
I only bet in certain races.
A number of criteria have to be met in these particular races for a bet to be made.
Nowadays I make on average around 30 bets a month.
It's an average of 13/2. Winning odds have ranged between 3/1 and 20/1. Over an 8 year period.
And over this period c28 out of 100 selections have won.
Which means 72 out of 100 have lost.
Losing runs of 10 or so occur often. Max losing run 28.
So chances of my methodology of selection criteria being satisfied in the next 2 days is improbable
As would be the likelihood of getting a winner in such a period.
I only bet in certain races.
A number of criteria have to be met in these particular races for a bet to be made.
Nowadays I make on average around 30 bets a month.
It's an average of 13/2. Winning odds have ranged between 3/1 and 20/1. Over an 8 year period.
And over this period c28 out of 100 selections have won.
Which means 72 out of 100 have lost.
Losing runs of 10 or so occur often. Max losing run 28.
So chances of my methodology of selection criteria being satisfied in the next 2 days is improbable
As would be the likelihood of getting a winner in such a period.
Wondersobright
What on earth is the point of me posting 309 winning bet prices ?( you would declare that I've made them up anyway !)
I've told you the total - the average is around 13/2.
Prices obtained, range from 3/1 to 20/1
What on earth is the point of me posting 309 winning bet prices ?( you would declare that I've made them up anyway !)
I've told you the total - the average is around 13/2.
Prices obtained, range from 3/1 to 20/1
facts I take on trust exactly on trust what you are saying until proven otherwise
I want to see the prices of all 1203 selections, not just the winners so that I can see your figures stack up
no pressure to post any future selections or methods or anything like that, just the odds of all the 1203 bets, not the summary statistics
thanks
I want to see the prices of all 1203 selections, not just the winners so that I can see your figures stack up
no pressure to post any future selections or methods or anything like that, just the odds of all the 1203 bets, not the summary statistics
thanks
*facts I take on trust exactly what you are saying until proven otherwise
long day
long day
X money
I've already indicated that I only focus on Class 1 and 2 Handicaps !!!
They don't happen every day ( certainly none Tuesday/wed)
Even then there may not be a bet.
I'm not going to divulge my methodology.
Wondersobright
I'm certainly not going to type out odds taken, of 1203 selections.
What would be the point anyway. The odds of horses picked for a bet, have no bearing on the actual odds of the ones that win. It wouldn't prove that my figs ' stack up '
I've already indicated that I only focus on Class 1 and 2 Handicaps !!!
They don't happen every day ( certainly none Tuesday/wed)
Even then there may not be a bet.
I'm not going to divulge my methodology.
Wondersobright
I'm certainly not going to type out odds taken, of 1203 selections.
What would be the point anyway. The odds of horses picked for a bet, have no bearing on the actual odds of the ones that win. It wouldn't prove that my figs ' stack up '
To clarify, the total sp figure given in my summary.is the price obtained of the winners( not every selection )
strange how you refuse to post the odds of the selections yet you have posted how many bets you've had, how many winners you've had, added up the SPs of all the winners, gone through the results to inspect for losing runs etc
do you have a spreadsheet that does this for you or did you do all of this by hand just so you could post on this thread?
do you have a spreadsheet that does this for you or did you do all of this by hand just so you could post on this thread?
surely if you appear under the sobriquet "facts" you could at least show some transparency
Nothing ' strange ' at all. Just a lot of work, for a pointless exercise.
All my records are kept manually. I prefer having a book of figs to hand.
Each week, month and year are totalled in columns. So didn't take long to obtain the total for 8 years.
Explain your reasoning for needling to see every price for every selection !
All my records are kept manually. I prefer having a book of figs to hand.
Each week, month and year are totalled in columns. So didn't take long to obtain the total for 8 years.
Explain your reasoning for needling to see every price for every selection !
X money
Judt for you. Field size is irrelevant for purposes of selection criteria. Having said that big fields do mean bigger prices
Judt for you. Field size is irrelevant for purposes of selection criteria. Having said that big fields do mean bigger prices
because I want to work out the average expectation of your bets not average SP
eg if you have 1000 bets at even money and 1 bet at 1000/1 your average SP is almost 2/1 which tells me nothing about your bets, however your avg expectation would be close to even money
then it will allow to me approximate how likely it is you can achieve a 28% strike rate over that many bets
will look in on this thread tomorrow to see if you have posted them
eg if you have 1000 bets at even money and 1 bet at 1000/1 your average SP is almost 2/1 which tells me nothing about your bets, however your avg expectation would be close to even money
then it will allow to me approximate how likely it is you can achieve a 28% strike rate over that many bets
will look in on this thread tomorrow to see if you have posted them
My ' expectation ' is to achieve an average winning price of c13/2 of the total winning bets I have.
This expectation is a reality, based on the fact that this has actually been achieved each year for the past 8 years.
I don't need you to work out the likelihood of me achieving 28 % - it's happening !
I have a system of bet selection, and the figs given are the reality of achievements. Other than the fact I don't bet anything under 3/1. The prices of my selections are irrelevant to any ' forecast' of how many winners I can expect, what their price is,what strike rate I can expect, etc etc.
For the past 8 years I have ( more or less ) followed the same methodology of betting.
So, to repeat.
These 8 years have given me the numbers on which I can can safely state
No of selection( I.e bets placed)
Number of wins
Strike rate
Price of those wins obtained
AV.Price obtained
The only point of the number of sels. Is to calculate Profit /ROI ( based on a level I point stake)
I.e
No of sels = A
No of wins =. B
Sp of wins =. C
Return =. D ( B + C)
Profit. =. E ( D - A)
ROI %. =. F ( E /A x100)
So, no , I will not be posting prices of every selection made over the last 8 years !
This expectation is a reality, based on the fact that this has actually been achieved each year for the past 8 years.
I don't need you to work out the likelihood of me achieving 28 % - it's happening !
I have a system of bet selection, and the figs given are the reality of achievements. Other than the fact I don't bet anything under 3/1. The prices of my selections are irrelevant to any ' forecast' of how many winners I can expect, what their price is,what strike rate I can expect, etc etc.
For the past 8 years I have ( more or less ) followed the same methodology of betting.
So, to repeat.
These 8 years have given me the numbers on which I can can safely state
No of selection( I.e bets placed)
Number of wins
Strike rate
Price of those wins obtained
AV.Price obtained
The only point of the number of sels. Is to calculate Profit /ROI ( based on a level I point stake)
I.e
No of sels = A
No of wins =. B
Sp of wins =. C
Return =. D ( B + C)
Profit. =. E ( D - A)
ROI %. =. F ( E /A x100)
So, no , I will not be posting prices of every selection made over the last 8 years !
And i dine every sunday with jesus, he actually invites me round his.
What I would to say to anyone holding folding is keep an eye on the BOE. Don't want to let yourself get caught with wads of out-of-tender notes
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/Pages/current/default.aspx
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/banknotes/Pages/current/default.aspx
You've i presume got over 2,500 bets to draw on in this time period with average odds around 7.5 and a strike rate of 28% on these.
And you think people will swallow this just because you have said that's what has happened.
Them numbers are absolutely fookin crazy, if bigmart or zipper had posted them I wouldn't even have bothered (i wish i hadn't).
You shouldn't make these claims and then say what's the point of me backing them up, the poiont is there's no point making these claims in the first place, i don't see what you are getting out of it as no one is any wiser.
And you think people will swallow this just because you have said that's what has happened.
Them numbers are absolutely fookin crazy, if bigmart or zipper had posted them I wouldn't even have bothered (i wish i hadn't).
You shouldn't make these claims and then say what's the point of me backing them up, the poiont is there's no point making these claims in the first place, i don't see what you are getting out of it as no one is any wiser.
You're ROI is actually over 100% after commission on BF given these figs.
well done, the best punter on the planet bar none.
well done, the best punter on the planet bar none.
SE it looks to me like his idea of average SP is utter bollox
he appears to have fallen into the trap of the example with the 1000 even money shots and the 1000/1 shots...ie he is quoting a figure which is effectively meaningless and on the back of it is making much grander claims than what is reality
I suspect his average expectation is more like 0.2-0.25 ie between 3/1 and 4/1 and he could be a small winning punter but without being given the figures we are in the dark
SE...do you concur that 50 winning 7/1 shots out of 200 sample is 2,000,000/1+ shot?
he appears to have fallen into the trap of the example with the 1000 even money shots and the 1000/1 shots...ie he is quoting a figure which is effectively meaningless and on the back of it is making much grander claims than what is reality
I suspect his average expectation is more like 0.2-0.25 ie between 3/1 and 4/1 and he could be a small winning punter but without being given the figures we are in the dark
SE...do you concur that 50 winning 7/1 shots out of 200 sample is 2,000,000/1+ shot?
That all seems spot on to me wondersobright, the average sp's cannot be anywhere near the average winning sp's can they? most of the winners must be in the lower odds range to get any sort of realistic outcome from a sample like that.
ie there's no way the average winning prices are around 7.5
my thoughts exactly...a weirdly skewed distribution?? which makes me suspect even more that it is bollox and another reason why I want all the odds
Interesting question logically to ask Facts from here is...
What is the average price of these winners?
So Facts if you could answer this it would be very much appreciated.
What is the average price of these winners?
So Facts if you could answer this it would be very much appreciated.
another way is to look back at all the class 1,2 handicaps sp 
the problem is his interpretation of what average price is
he will say he's already given you the answer SE
he will say he's already given you the answer SE
Well if that is the answer wondersobright we can deduce the likely probability of it being true
There's either a greatly skewed distribution going on here where the higher odds should actually be dropped or it's complete fantasy island where someone is hitting better than 100% ROI over 8 years!
There's either a greatly skewed distribution going on here where the higher odds should actually be dropped or it's complete fantasy island where someone is hitting better than 100% ROI over 8 years!
Anyway need to focus on something worthwhile with today's action 
an ROI of over 100% over 8 years is the top of fantasy mountain on fantasy island
GL SE
GL SE
These are Facts' 2015 figures courtesy of http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/30636807/calling-big-wart?pg=2
2015
Bets 217 ( level stakes 1 point win)
Wins 66
AV. SP. 6/1
Ret. 479
Profit. 262 points
ROI profit = 123 %
2015
Bets 217 ( level stakes 1 point win)
Wins 66
AV. SP. 6/1
Ret. 479
Profit. 262 points
ROI profit = 123 %
just looks like same sh1t different day
impressive aftertiming summary statistics with no odds/selections given and a misunderstanding of what average SP is
impressive aftertiming summary statistics with no odds/selections given and a misunderstanding of what average SP is
so 66 wins and the average win SP is 7.26 to go with the avg sample price of 7.0
= BS of the highest order
In a small sample that doesn't sit well and extrapolated absolutely no chance of that happening over 8 years.
= BS of the highest order
In a small sample that doesn't sit well and extrapolated absolutely no chance of that happening over 8 years.
100% agree SE, a convenient pattern emerging here
blatant (consistent good quality) BS imo
blatant (consistent good quality) BS imo
wondersobright it has cleared up that the avg prices are not skewed to the lower range as we thought must be happening for this to have any credence.
my dining with jesus every sunday has about the same odds as this happening over 8 years.
my dining with jesus every sunday has about the same odds as this happening over 8 years.
Bets 217 ( level stakes 1 point win)
Wins 66
AV. SP. 6/1
Ret. 479
Profit. 262 points
ROI profit = 123 %
Facts, what you still doing on here? With such a monster edge you should have already bulldozed your way to a few million
Wins 66
AV. SP. 6/1
Ret. 479
Profit. 262 points
ROI profit = 123 %
Facts, what you still doing on here? With such a monster edge you should have already bulldozed your way to a few million
Ive provided all the numbers I'm going to.
Wether you believe them or not , is not my problem.
It seems that anytime someone tries to share statistics, they get derided and called a liar.
Good luck to you all.
Wether you believe them or not , is not my problem.
It seems that anytime someone tries to share statistics, they get derided and called a liar.
Good luck to you all.
nobody has called you a liar
you've been asked multiple times to provide the odds of your bets that your summary statistics refer to
you've refused to do this
hence your claims have absolutely no substance to them
people can draw their own conclusions but you're in fantasy land imo
you've been asked multiple times to provide the odds of your bets that your summary statistics refer to
you've refused to do this
hence your claims have absolutely no substance to them
people can draw their own conclusions but you're in fantasy land imo
Facts • January 3, 2017 12:48 PM GMT
Ive provided all the numbers I'm going to
that's because if you posted what I asked you to it would expose that you are spouting nonsense
Ive provided all the numbers I'm going to
that's because if you posted what I asked you to it would expose that you are spouting nonsense
Someone pick up Facts' 24 carat gold dummy and shove it back in his gob
I look at things completely differently, why would i believe everything that is so far away from the norm a complete stranger intimates to me on an anonymous forum.
Shirley this would be crazy behaviour, this is why i am surprised you bothered to post this on here, there's no proofing and it's so incredible what you are suggesting from a mathematical perspective.
We are not talking a small sample bias here we are talking a major sustained incredible deviation from any rational expectation.
Shirley this would be crazy behaviour, this is why i am surprised you bothered to post this on here, there's no proofing and it's so incredible what you are suggesting from a mathematical perspective.
We are not talking a small sample bias here we are talking a major sustained incredible deviation from any rational expectation.
Not vague at all.
All races are classed ( 1-6) in the race conditions.
I focus on class 1 and 2 .
All races are classed ( 1-6) in the race conditions.
I focus on class 1 and 2 .
wondersobright.
Against my better judgement and realising I'm on a hiding to nothing.
Using the 2015 figs, posted by someone earlier.
The Total of the prices taken( bet) of the 217 selections was1601
An average price of 7.4.
I still fail to see what this shows other than the horses I bet are on average around this price, therefore when they win they ( unsurprisingly) around this same price.
But if you disagree I'm sure you will enlighten me.
Against my better judgement and realising I'm on a hiding to nothing.
Using the 2015 figs, posted by someone earlier.
The Total of the prices taken( bet) of the 217 selections was1601
An average price of 7.4.
I still fail to see what this shows other than the horses I bet are on average around this price, therefore when they win they ( unsurprisingly) around this same price.
But if you disagree I'm sure you will enlighten me.
Reminds me of "How To Win at Handicap Racing" by Patrick Kilgannon. In the book he is extremely selective and concentrates only on better class handicaps. I think the basis of the book: he was looking for horses who could quicken at the business end of the race, and win by a short distance that the official handicapper found difficult to assess correctly. He was happy to travel to the races, race watch and not have a bet. His minimum price for a selection was 7-2. He gives details of the 1986 season where he has 9 winners from 11 bets, has £100 on each and wins £2950.
Yeah, lol. A bit from the book:
Whatever type of racing you are interested in, providing you follow a consistent principle of selection, you should be able to achieve a success rate of 30%. Betting strategy is the key to making racing pay.
It can be summarised in the following rules:
1.Always keep a record of your bets
2. Concentrate on a small number of races at the best meetings; wait for the opportunity when everything is in your favour.
3. NEVER EVER bet odds on.
4. Wait till you can get odds of 7-2 or better against your selection.
5. Don't chase your losses
6. Cut your losses and play up your winnings. (I think this relates to the 10% plan.)
Whatever type of racing you are interested in, providing you follow a consistent principle of selection, you should be able to achieve a success rate of 30%. Betting strategy is the key to making racing pay.
It can be summarised in the following rules:
1.Always keep a record of your bets
2. Concentrate on a small number of races at the best meetings; wait for the opportunity when everything is in your favour.
3. NEVER EVER bet odds on.
4. Wait till you can get odds of 7-2 or better against your selection.
5. Don't chase your losses
6. Cut your losses and play up your winnings. (I think this relates to the 10% plan.)
The "never bet odds on" is nonsense, that's like saying you wouldn't have backed Thistlecrack at 10/11 in its Novice Chases! If you have something priced up at 1/2 and it's 5/6 surely you back it (taking out the unbackable short price stables).
MD...its not nonsense if you want to maintain a long term ROI of over 100%
I think as a rule of thumb backing odds on is a no no, as is ew betting, however if it works for you & keeps your losing streak down so be it. Number 1 is the best advice.
9/11 used as a sample would always ring loud alarm bells for me
Most people fail down to ability rather than discipline though of course poor discipline would stifle someones ability. I have read so many threads blaming poor discipline that a bank was built up and then poor discipline blew it when in fact it was the same poor discipline with an obviously compulsive gambler that built the bank in th efirst place with over staking behaviour!
Most people fail down to ability rather than discipline though of course poor discipline would stifle someones ability. I have read so many threads blaming poor discipline that a bank was built up and then poor discipline blew it when in fact it was the same poor discipline with an obviously compulsive gambler that built the bank in th efirst place with over staking behaviour!
You're right we can all pick winners and see stand out value bets, it's our ability to carry on when things aren't going our way and, as you say, have the discipline not to chase losses - something that has taken me 30 years plus to overcome.
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