odds on gold cup??

I loved it, looked like the horse enjoyed himself.

I loved it, looked like the horse enjoyed himself.

I agree Magic Daps that it could have been more, but all I am saying is that to win a gold cup he will probably have to run to 175 ish...therefore another 15 lengths more. It is a matter of opinion whether he had this much in hand.

Perhaps the OH will match his hurdle rating and give him 174

Although TC needs to be careful at the open ditches, i can see him landing on top of one, it's a sight to behold watching his leap from outside the wings of an open ditch but he needs to be on the button to pull it off.

Thistlecracks Jumping was spectacular but bloody hell he really did stand off a few, he gets one of them wrong and he'll end up in the fence!
It's fine margins.

nh racing is fraught with fine margins.

The Tizzard's have created a MONSTER. It's staggering to remember that THISTLECRACK couldn't finish in front of CAMPING GROUND in receipt of over a stone 21 months ago. The improvement has been sensational.

Kim

I know that the horse had back issues, the engine was too big for the frame until the frame strengthened.
The improvement happened once his body could cope with the V8 engine inside.

Even ruby managed to win on him once!

[i]jedi sophie    26 Dec 16 18:25 
About a stone better horse than Cue Card,regardless of ground,course,trip,beat it like a drum every time.Tizzard knew this,hence why the bold tactic from owners and himself.
well regarded and well deserved,best ive seen in a fair old while and up there with likes of Denman, kauto though still not at there level yet as no Gold cup.

Visually though as good a performance ive seen in a G1 for a long tim



I agree. I think this horse is very special. He loves to race.His exuberance in running was a joy to watch.
The Gold Cup in March, is his to lose.

Did young Tom have a tear in his eye ?   Rarely does he express such emotions so I can only assume this animal must be pretty special. Well done to all the connection.

Did young Tom have a tear in his eye ?   Rarely does he express such emotions so I can only assume this animal must be pretty special

It does not take a tear in the jocks eye to tell you that the horse is special.... your own eyes should be telling you that!

The trouble is koi the ones who have been against the horse from the start of this season will always be against it. It only beat trees before yesterday and should never be fav for the GC, now it has been upped in class it only beat another crop of poor animals and the main challenger didn't turn up. If Coneygree would have turned up and finished second yesterday the same people would be saying Coneygree was never on song/unfit etc etc.

Of course it could get beat in the GC, could fall or land on a fence, be brought down etc, but I just fail to see how anyone could not be impressed by that yesterday. If it wins the GC the same people will be saying it was the worst GC in history.

Correct Magic. This Cue Card" underperformed" nonsense is all the knockers can come up with. They must know more than Paddy Brennan then! His reaction said it all.Thistlecrack broke Cue Cards heart. When Brennan tried to put it up to TC, and was then left toiling in it's wake, THAT was it for CC. It didn't underperform , irrespective of what the ratings say. It just blew a gasket trying to go with the winner. Just as a boxer would putting EVERYTHING into two rounds in a twelve round about! We see the same thing happen so so often. Colin Tizzard said Cue Card was spot on. Who am I to argue?

Cue was run off his feet from 4 out, that acceleration from Thistlecrack probably exhausted CC, he had to try and sprint to stay in contention.
Take Thistlecrack out of the race and i think CC would have won comfortably.

so cue card ran to form
dont worry about times wouldnt have beat lightbite yesterday
forget about yesterdays horse conti beaten 4 or 5 lgths
forget about 2,4 miles jossies finishing close up
forget about t 4 t not beaten far after lizzie strangled it,went round london on the bends
etc,etc,you have to be stevie wonder to go into hyberbloe over that yesterday

You are taking the distance literally though 1st time poster, Thistlecrack could have stretched further away imo.

And Cue Card was ridden to win the race, where the others? or did connections opt to race for prize money?

Funny things can happen when there are different tactics applied.

And regarding the time of Light bite etc.
He was 18L ahead of a horse rated 131

Are you seriously suggesting that is a bridge too far for Thistlecrack?

Again, times can give a funny perception of reality.

zen you are bang on, times are BS,times  compared on different days or different tracks or going  are totally(not nearly totally) but totally pointless.today  the time variance between  what the felt ham winner would have put up being better than thistlecrack shows even on the same track same day they are all but meaningless.

The time guru's do not take into account the cat and mouse tempo in these top notch C1's

You would have to think Might Bite and Royal Vacation improved by 20lbs since their last runs to compare the times literally.

It doesn't seem likely

i can  accept the times of 5/6 furlong races   on the same day having a spot of meaning as  generally sprints  are run pretty much flat  out"but even then sometimes thats not the case"

I tend to use my eyes but have some reference points to ratings, otherwise you will interpret times into 20lbs of improvements when comparing.

Yes perhaps in sprints i might pay attention.

if we reversed the situation and cue card had  scrambled home in the kg and thistlecraft had won the feltham in a faster time,doubt the thistlecrack supporters would be saying times mean nothing and cue cards ran to his 180 ratings,all the rest thistle broke cue cards back etc is just guessing.at 5 to 4 for the gold cup theres more than enough questions over yesterdays performance to look elsewhere,imo

Ok, let's say the 1st and 2nd in the Feltham improved by 20lbs then, seems plausable

1st time poster - so the market is miles wrong in your opinion. How much have you layed it for, and how much is that up to your min/max bet?

Do you lot all think Cue Card's form right-handed is the same as left?  I don't.  Not by a long chalk.  He's quite clearly a better animal going the other way round.  Thistlecrack is obviously a very good horse, but this standing outside the wings business will not serve him well in a Gold Cup imo.

Nope, i don't think CC is as effective right handed as left handed consistently, but he did according to the OH run his best race in last years KG up to an OR 176.

However, i do think that CC spits his dummy out more often than not going right handed.

Thistlecrack got his big win 50 years from the day of Arkle's last race.

Thistlecrack was sensational yesterday; he was never out of rhythm despite the efforts of Cue Card and company - he was just toying with them and he deserves to win the Gold Cup in March and a few more after. By the way, Cue Card could be Ryanair bound, a bit premature, I'd think, in case Thistlecrack cannot run.

The question is...what price for the 2017 Triple Crown £1m bonus and 2018 Gold Cup?

He is effective on any ground as well 123 (TC that is) so heavy ground Haydock, good ground Kempton...makes very little difference to him.

I think we may see that million bonus withdrawn

Thistlecrack will be the lay of the meeting at Cheltenham, worst King George ive seen

We need more people like you, do have many clones?

We need more people like you, do YOU have many clones?

If it's the lay of the meeting from oneyall that enhances its chances.

Am I the only one that is completely bored with the Thistlecrack chat? A 5 runner King George is pathetic. None of the others put pressure on his jumping in the first circuit which is ludicrous judging by the way he jumped the first. Cue Card should have been right up there hassling him

And as for Scudamore and his tears....

He looked a right Jessie bursting into tears like that.

Exactly. Looks ridiculous with that black gumshield also.

Tizzard does not want Thistlecack, Native River and Cue Card in the Gold Cup - he is alluding to the Ryanair for Cue Card.
Is that not too premature just yet? Cue Card is the 2nd best chaser after Thistlecrack, and until recently was the fav. What'd happen if Thistlecrack cannot make the race? And I do not believe Native River possesses the potential, form and class to win the Gold Cup.

Talk about the longevity of a politician, that of a racehorse is even shorter!

Shouldn't he wait and see what Cue Card's new rating will be after that disappointment on Monday?
Surely he won't remain on 176 if that was his form?

The Ryanair is far less prestigious than the Gold Cup (GC) and personally, I do not believe the Ryanair (20f) suits Cue Card (CC) better than the GC - he'd be done for toe, I believe.

Anyway, CC was unlucky in the last GC; CC is still a better horse than Native River in my opinion; a softer ground will suit CC more than at Kempton; anything could happen to Thistlecrack prior to/in the race itself eg unwell/a loose saddle, shoe, bad mistake, etc.

I hope his owners allow him another crack at the Gold Cup, and hopefully atone for his fall last time.

I think they feel he might have gone back now.
He's eleven soon.
A run in the Ryanair could sharpen him up for a shot at Aintree again.

One thing's for sure, they can't go to the well every time with him like they did last year.

I agree, he'll be 11 next year and he's been over-raced especially when chasing the £1m bonus. I think CC ought to be given a rest, then a racecourse gallop prior to another tilt at the GC or head straight to Aintree. But do not take him out on account of Thistlecrack (different owner) when he's the beating of everyone bar Don Cossack that ran in the GC last year; Thistlecrack could have an off day in the GC, and I cannot see Native River winning it given the taxing races this horse has had so far.

I was perturbed by Tizzard's admission he knew where Thistlecrack would be going when he entered the horse for the King George (KG), and he was merely (pretending) otherwise in the post KG interview.

A knee jerk reaction, I believe, from Tizzard to go for the Ryanair with CC so soon after the KG. But nevertheless I think it will happen.

The Ascot Chase in  February is likely to be Cue Cards next race.

Agree that they will concentrate on Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup but if i was the owners of CC i would still want one last stab at the Gold Cup.
He has not looked great on his last few runs on good ground but still looks capable with plenty of cut, perhaps he just prefers jumping onto softer ground these days. Only a guess.

jumped like a crab down the back in heavy at haddock.never looked a great jumper but put someone with plenty of blarney on his back and every win is a wonder win,most of his chase wins have more holes than my bucket in them,

Dec 27, 2016 -- 5:20PM, impossible123 wrote:

I agree, he'll be 11 next year and he's been over-raced especially when chasing the £1m bonus. I think CC ought to be given a rest, then a racecourse gallop prior to another tilt at the GC or head straight to Aintree. But do not take him out on account of Thistlecrack (different owner) when he's the beating of everyone bar Don Cossack that ran in the GC last year; Thistlecrack could have an off day in the GC, and I cannot see Native River winning it given the taxing races this horse has had so far.I was perturbed by Tizzard's admission he knew where Thistlecrack would be going when he entered the horse for the King George (KG), and he was merely (pretending) otherwise in the post KG interview. A knee jerk reaction, I believe, from Tizzard to go for the Ryanair with CC so soon after the KG. But nevertheless I think it will happen.

I think you're misrepresenting Tizzard - all he has said at this point are words to the effect that Cue Card could go for the Ryanair and it made sense to keep all the options open. He's right - it clearly makes sense to plenty of others too as Cue Card was favourite for the Ryanair before Tizzard made his comments.He won the Ryanair in 2013 almost as impressively as Vautour did last year (yep, I appreciate he might not have quite the same turn of foot 4 years on) so they'd be foolish not to consider it. I tend to agree that the owners might want one last (wicked) crack at the Gold Cup and if that's the case, then let him take his chance.They don't have to decide now so why should they?

I'm not sure why you're perturbed that he does n't make all his discussions with the owners public either. Why should they play their cards before they have to? They'd look silly if something changed and they had to reverse their decision. I don't find it particularly helpful that the media ask him which race Thistlecrack is going to run in in a months' time every time they see him in the parade ring.

It's worth noting that they announced where Thistlecrack would be running the day before the 6 day entry stage - he never even had an entry in the Kauto Star novices chase - they could have put him in both races and made their decision public at the final declaration stage, they'd be within their rights to do that but they did n't.

if thistlecracks as good as he,s hyped upto be after yesterday and fellow trainers believe it, there,ll be plenty heading for the ryanair

Magic__Daps
     27 Dec 16 08:30 
Of course it could get beat in the GC, could fall or land on a fence, be brought down etc, but I just fail to see how anyone could not be impressed by that yesterday. If it wins the GC the same people will be saying it was the worst GC in history. 


I think everyone who watched the race was impressed by the performance, the fact that we're not all knocking one out over it doesn't mean we weren't impressed.

The fact that some of us think that it doesn't compare to a couple of kauto's KG's, Denman's Hennessy, Coneygree's GC,what SS did to CC at Liverpool or for my money Vautours JLT doesn't mean we weren't impressed with what TC did yesterday.

It wasn't the kind of performance that I would call ''impressive.'' Not enough distance for me.

They usually reserve that comment for hard held, a very smart turn of foot or a long way in front.
He didn't come right away from Cue Card, who took him on three fences too early according to his trainer.
And Cue Card in turn didn't put good lengths between himself and the rest like we've come to expect from him.

How will it rate on paper 170?

Making Cue Card's performance 10lbs down.

Making Cue Card's performance 10lbs down.

Well down more than that because I've rated off the third and allowed for the winner being eased.

I disagree duffy - if you think everyone was impressed you must be reading a different forum than what I am. I am not comparing the performance to Kauto, Denman etc at all, I just think it was mightily impressive.

I think the OH will give Thistlecrack the same mark he has over hurdles , or just below something like 172+

Cue Card ran to about 162 perhaps, Thistlecrack had another few more lengths in him in my opinion.
So on his top mark of 176, Cue Card ran a stone below his best.

Revising his mark to 168 perhaps.

I think Cue Card ran below par too but do not take anything away from the performance of Thistlecrack - he was awesome as he could have won by a bigger margin if wanted to.

The good ground did not help Cue Card and neither did the lack of pace throughout when Josses Hill, the anticipated pacesetter, was happy to tag along at the back. Hence, Cue Card was rushed to take Thistlecrack on much earlier than Brennan would have liked and as such was not able to run his usual race ie held up and challenged 2/3 out. And this could be the reason for the proximity of the other runners to him.

In the Gold Cup on soft ground and a larger field Cue Card (if running) would finish closer to Thistlecrack but Thistlecrack, barring an accident, would still win.

I've taken 11.5 about Djakadam for GC which i think a sporting bet ahead of the Lexus tomorrow,but i still think Thistlecrack if he stays sound will win the GC his jumping and acceleration around Kempton was mighty impressive.

ridiculous saying cuecard ran to a stone below his form, paddy used him trying to get the novice into a mistake down the back, what imo he had to do to win the race

Fashion, but whatever the reasons for it (and no doubt taking Thistlecrack on early was a contributory factor), Cue Card was still more or less a stone below his best going by the proximity of the horses close behind him.

Personally i think it would be madness to run Cue Card in the Ryan Air when he would probably still be 2nd or 3rd favourite for the Gold Cup. I'd rather win one gold cup than 10 Ryan Air's. If I was the owner of Cue Card I would be demanding the chance to go for the Gold Cup. Thistlecrack's jumping is yet to be tested by a big field and for all his brilliance it's still likely there will be a jump or two where he takes a real chance. It's hard to forget Cue Card travelling all over them before he fell in this years Gold Cup and his other great performances. If Coneygree and Djakadam are disputing 2nd favourite then Cue Card should be running. Having said all this i still think Native River is the biggest danger to Thistlecrack (apart from the fences). He's improving all the time and looks an absolute machine to me (admittedly with less speed than Thistlecrack). Let's hope for a Tizzard 1,2,3.

It's compelling to take the view that Cue Card ran well below at Kempton.

If that is the case then what exactly did Thistlecrack achieve in the King George?

A Cue Card in form when let down would have effortlessly drawn 10 lengths clear of the others he met at Kempton.
Yet he only managed to go two lengths up on TFT who was rated 23 lbs inferior. 

Thistlecrack is being completely overhyped in my opinion. The media are trying to make a superstar out of him before he's proved anything.

Thistle could have won by 10 though if it wanted to imo, eased down with Tom stood up celebrating in the saddle 60 yards from the finish.

We see wins like that every day of the week.

It doesn't make them superstars.

Look at Cue Card's last two wins against similar opposition.

Not been off the bridle since April 2015, won 4 Grade 1s as he pleased since then with cumulative winning distance of over 25 lengths.

If that does n't make him a superstar then either all the horses he has beaten are n't very good and/or have run below form every time he's beaten them or the game does n't have a superstar since Sprinter Sacre retired.

Well the horses he met in his first three chases weren't very good were they?

It's not unusual for a decent novice to wipe the floor with the opposition they meet at that level.

They come and they go.

I would suggest it's quite unusual for any horse to win 4 Grade 1 races without coming off the bridle in any of them.

You exaggerate.

No I don't, go and watch them.

Look what happened to the 1992 Gold Cup involving the fav Carvill's Hill? Golden Freeze, an outsider, was rushed up to unsettle him and how successful that was. The same could happen in next year's Gold Cup, I believe.

As a bigger field almost a certainty it is prudent to expect several pacesetters in the field, probably from the Irish contingent, trying to do the same to Thistlecrack. If so, this could play into the hand of Cue Card (if running and soft ground) especially if Thistlecrack's inexperience surfaces. On the other hand if Thistlecrack jumps as he did in the King George there can only be one result ie Thistlecrack beating Cue Card and Djakadam. One should never be afraid of one horse in any race, and I hope Cue Card is given another chance in the Gold Cup despite having Thistlecrack as stablemate.

Thistlecrack can only win in the King George, and the proximity of others to Cue Card who most here think ran below par should not detract from the impressive performance of Thistlecrack - it was awesome from the most inexperienced racehorse in the field.

I can only go on what a horse has done.

And so far over fences Thistlecrack has swept away the novices he's been pitted against.

And in the KG he beat two over raced 10 year olds nearly 11 year olds, and a none stayer, along with another who was rated 153 before the race.

I'll reserve judgement on how good Thistlecrack is over fences until he's got a few more big wins under his belt.

Not that I won't back it. He looks the likely winner of the GC at this stage especially with all the principles under a cloud.
But a superstar on what he's done so far? I don't think so.

I'll desist from the tit for tat stuff 'cos it's a bit pointless.

I think the point I'm trying to make is that just because Thistlecrack is overhyped, it does n't mean he is n't a superstar. The two are n't mutually exclusive.

If you watched his recent races on mute without knowing anything him, I reckon most would be pretty impressed - the manner of his superiority is similar to Usain Bolt in his pomp - although maybe you don't think Bolt's opponents were any good either.

Wasn't the way that Native River bounded away up the hill at Chepstow yesterday impressive, and giving weight all round into the bargain?

We see impressive runs almost every day.

I just saw one at Leicester in the first. Made all, shaken up last - ROW.

Then they flop in their next race like Cue Card did on Monday after his 15 length win at Haydock.

Cue Card did not flop,...he was beaten by a younger, inexperienced but extremely talented novice chaser who won the World Hurdle with ease last season. Also, Cue Card has had a hard season so far trying to chase the £1 bonus eg Wetherby and Betfair, and the season before; he is also getting on, almost 11yrs old. But he can still hold his own against the others as shown in the last Gold Cup until falling two out.

I'd back Cue Card without Thistlecrack in March on soft ground.

Another one hundred yards and Native River would have been caught imo.

I'll bet connections of Native River hope the handicapper thinks that as well stewerty.

Oh, and by the way Native River was winning off a 151 rating - what rating is Cue Card? 176 (yes 176!), a mighty 25lbs superior to Native River.

As for racing stars, the old guard fades and the new kid on the block takes over.

It's simply the racing cycle, and the media desperate for a superstar hypes the latest winner up for all they're worth as a new world beater.

It's never been any different.

Well the thing is Dr C this is the way the RP saw it for the second...



stayed on well but always being held


That's not the way I saw it. I firmly believe the second would have got up in the last 100.

And Cue Card was 23lbs better than Tea For Two who finished a head behind him at Kempton.

It will be interesting to see the figure that the handicapper gives Thistlecrack after that.

He can't go mad with Tea For Two less than four lengths behind. 

And he's already dropped the third from 177 down to 163.

If you look at the bare form of the race the form is a bit muddled by the display of Cue Card but in saying that, two inferior rated horses got to within four lenghts of Thistlecrack.

Gold cup winning form? No for me but this could be the worst GC for a few years.

The key to the KG was Cue Card was not allowed to run his usual race ie held up and produced to challenge 2/3 fences out. Hence, the proximity of the likes of Fosses Hill, TFT and Conti who CC beat by a distance at Haydock.

I'd put every penny on CC beating Native River in a any race, all things being equal.

** Having said that, the choke wasn't pulled out on Thistlecrack. Some might say it could have won by further and I would have liked to see that given it's another two furlongs in the GC but no point in pulling out the choke if you don't have to.

Indeed, the Gold Cup is the ultimate accolade not the KG. A well deserved and rightful winner on the day and impending Gold Cup in March, I can confidently say, all things being equal, even on soft ground.

The time was also good, (fast by 0.50 seconds) but it was good going. Cue Card likes some juice in the ground so it will be interesting to see what the connections have planned for the horse.

are we already going down the road that this will be the worst gold cup for years

The Ryanair by the look of it now that he's gone back.

Only Tizzard knows how far that is.

CC's jockey was almost in tears - he knows the dream is over.

Apparently Ryanair, what a premature idea so soon after the KG on unfavourable ground. Maybe Tizzard is more concerned with prize money. What'd happen if Thistlecrack made a bad mistake and finished 2nd to Djakadam or Coneygree with Native River an over-ran? Connections of Cue Card would be fuming, I would if I was the owner.

thistlecrack should still have a deal of improvement over fences, was a brilliant hurdler and undoubtedly has an engine not many horses have to call upon.

whether it jumps round in a hurly burly contest at this stage is another matter, some of them jumps so far he's taken off miles away.

Big shame for me is TC though only 4 chases is 9 in a few days time. Would have been great a couple of years younger, could have really been top draw over fences for a few seasons.

Personally do think this horse is very special but can understand others wanting more evidence.

outlander just won the lexus

CC's jockey was almost in tears - he knows the dream is over.



It's only my opinion but the dream was well and truly over before he (inexplicably again imho) got the nod to pilot Cue Card.

And Don Poly was 2nd, I believe, with Djakadam 3rd - no worries for Thistlecrack and Cue Card connections at all.

I'll go along with you there stewarty.

Did you hear Tizzard on the telly say that he thought the jockey on CC took on Thistlecrack three fences too soon?

That was a surprise to hear him say that in front of everybody.

I did Dr C. A big surprise to me also. I like them that says it as they see it. I didn't have a bet on the race but I hope Brennan also heard it watcing the replay at home.

I presume it was the connections that gave him the stint. Good jockeys are few and far between but although Brennan isn't a dud they could have picked better imo.


The Tom George route seems the only viable option to me nowadays.

Looking at the betting on here if I was given a free 500 bet it would be 250 EW on Coneygree......at the moment.

Assuming he is the smae sort of price (Evens) on the day I will be place laying the arse out of Thistlecrack at 1/2 or less.
If Coneygree makes the gig, plus Native River pouring it on from the front he's as likely to fall as win imo so given the choice between evens or 2/1 I'll take the latter.

Native River pour it on? i doubt he could get Thistlecrack out of 3rd gear....

I may be a tad behind in the latest news/gossip but does anyone know the reason for the alarming drift on Coneygree?

It's only entry so far is the Gold Cup I may add.

Coneygree has suffered an injury to one of his hocks and is presently confined to walkies only for a month but hopefully will make the Gold Cup; it is not career-threatening but possibly season-threatening.

Many thanks for that information.

I should google more often....


Coneygree to walk for a month

    Last Updated: December 29 2016, 11:31 GMT

Coneygree will definitely not run again before attempting to regain his crown in the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Coneygree will be doing plenty more of this for another month.

Mark Bradstock's 2015 Gold Cup hero ran an excellent race in defeat on his return from over a year on the sidelines when runner-up to Cue Card in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November.

Connections were looking forward to a rematch in the King George VI Chase at Kempton, but Coneygree was ruled out of the Boxing Day spectacular following an unsatisfactory workout.

The trainer's wife, Sara Bradstock, has revealed the nine-year-old is now in a race against time to be fit enough to run in the blue riband on March 17.

"He's good and we're hoping he'll be ready to run in the Gold Cup, but he won't run before then," Bradstock told Press Association Sport.

"He's fine, but it came out in the wash that he's jarred himself a little bit. It's not a serious injury, but as we all know, while he is a miracle horse, he is fragile.

"You never really know with him, but I'm hopeful he'll make the Gold Cup.

    Profiles

    Coneygree
    M Bradstock

"We'll walk him now for a month until he's super-well and then we'll see where we are.

"He'll be fine by the time the Gold Cup comes around, the question is whether we'll have him ready."

Bradstock was an interested observer as Cue Card proved no match for hugely impressive stable-companion Thistlecrack in the King George.

Colin Tizzard's charge is now odds-on with some bookmakers for the Gold Cup, but Bradstock would not be afraid to take him on with Coneygree.

She said: "I don't think the King George told us much, really. Thistlecrack did what he did beautifully, but what did he do?

"Cue Card is a wonderful horse, but he has a few miles on the clock and I think he showed when he ran at Wetherby (third in Charlie Hall Chase) that he's not as effective on good ground as he is on soft.

"He just beat Silviniaco Conti for second and he was miles behind him at Haydock. We wouldn't be frightened to take Thistlecrack on, anyway.

"If we can get Coneygree there at the top of his game, he'll be up for the challenge and we'll try and show him who's boss!"