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got to be a king George for me...........if he fails badly then back to hurdling.....Feltham will probably tell you nothing
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They won't want to take on Cue Card until March
Cardiff
He has only blundered one fence, why would they consider quitting the novice route to prove something?
Cardiff
He has only blundered one fence, why would they consider quitting the novice route to prove something?
Newbury Hennessey weekend, then Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham.
always seems a slog the cotswold chase,what about the denman chase ?
unless he wants to get another run around cheltenham in.
Almost a near certainty his next race would be at the Newbury Hennessy weekend and then the Feltham at Kempton at x'mas period; I think connection will give the King George a wide berth given his distinct lack of fencing experience.
the one think about mr tizzard is he does not wrap them up they are there to race so anything is possible.
Nearly guaranteed to come a cropper at Kempton in the KG. Has a very poor jockey on board(Id say they are very keen to get him off) and you can easily see it landing in the middle of a fence taking on seasoned enough horses.
Has fook all chance of beating Douvan anyways.
Has fook all chance of beating Douvan anyways.
No way he will be lining up in the King George ,two novice races against average horses and he nearly sat on one of the fences at Cheltenham.
Taking on Cue Card and co on Boxing Day will not happen.
Taking on Cue Card and co on Boxing Day will not happen.
Rather harsh to call Tom Scu a very poor jockey, considering there is not that many on planet earth better than him.
I'm not sure what he has done to deserve a bashing from Bigwilly.
I'm not sure what he has done to deserve a bashing from Bigwilly.
I've watched the race back today and I'm surprised there wasn't more criticism of the ride on saturday tbh
thistlecrack's jumping improved a lot on the 2nd lap when he allowed to him stride on, all the problems were when he was messing around on him going too steady and trying to take a lead off an inferior horse
perhaps he will learn for next time...
thistlecrack's jumping improved a lot on the 2nd lap when he allowed to him stride on, all the problems were when he was messing around on him going too steady and trying to take a lead off an inferior horse
perhaps he will learn for next time...
There are 20 plus riders better than him in Ireland alone. An awful judge of pace.
and to answer the question, feltham for me or no kempton at all
Wondersobright
Part of his education will be to sense horses around him while jumping, so it will be team orders to have held him back. I doubt that will be the call in his next race however.
I wouldn't put the blame on Tom Scu
Part of his education will be to sense horses around him while jumping, so it will be team orders to have held him back. I doubt that will be the call in his next race however.
I wouldn't put the blame on Tom Scu
There are 20 plus riders better than him in Ireland alone. An awful judge of pace.
Well you have gone and done it now.
Go on then, name them.
Well you have gone and done it now.
Go on then, name them.
fair enough ZM
if the newbury race is next for them I am 99% he will be set out to make it
if the newbury race is next for them I am 99% he will be set out to make it
Yes agree wondersobright
Tom pulled him back on his debut at Chepstow, so Alqalim was upsides him between the last two fences. You could see what they were trying to do. As is often the case though, you can over think this education malarky.
This horse wants to get on with it and every time he has been asked for a good jump at speed he has been foot perfect.
Tom pulled him back on his debut at Chepstow, so Alqalim was upsides him between the last two fences. You could see what they were trying to do. As is often the case though, you can over think this education malarky.
This horse wants to get on with it and every time he has been asked for a good jump at speed he has been foot perfect.
Completely agree with zen. He will learn much more for the long term being restrained, than allowing him to stride out and never see another horse.
I think they should definitely go for the Feltham.
I think they should definitely go for the Feltham.
No worries, in the Gold Cup (big if) Thistlecrack will most likely have Djakadam, Gods Own, Coneygree, Smad Place, etc, as companions up front from the off. Looking back, the jumping of Thistlecrack (presently) reminds me of 'Drumadowney', a good chasing novice in the mid 1980's but very prone to making the occasional race fault(s) eg over jumping and ballooning - he finished 4th in the 85' Gold Cup.
whats was the horse they knocked bells off trying to win a gold cup and never recovered from it,crucified it to get 4th place i think,was it hubbards strong promise or similar
Yes Strong Promise. But he was second in a GC having run in the QMCC the previous year so he didn't run in it as a Novice.
Coneygree went Newbury, Feltham, Denman, Gold Cup
seems a reasonable plan to take Thistlecrack the same route
seems a reasonable plan to take Thistlecrack the same route
Strong promise would be another along with native upmanship that should have been around these days to run in a Ryanair, not quick enough for the 2 miles but didn't really stay the gold cup either, SP could certainly travel though but didn't always find the maximum.
Thistlecrack's post race previews on both his novice chases
Made all, raced enthusiastically and jumped well, quickened pace after 13th, steadied and joined briefly between last 2, soon came clear, easily (op 2/13)
Led until 2nd, tracked leader, blundered 5th, led and quickened pace 11th, soon clear, reduced advantage 3 out, drew effortlessly clear again before next, eased run-in (op 2/11 tchd 2/9 in places)
Some on here are suggesting that he is *prone* to making race fault(s), ballooning etc.
THEY ALL MAKE THE ODD MISTAKE.
Let's have a look at Kauto Star on his 2nd ever chase
Chased leader, led on bit after 8th, 12 lengths clear when fell 2 out, remounted without irons, hit last, ran on well flat, just failed (op 1-6 tchd 1-5 in places)
Now have a look at the first King George win of Kauto Star
Well in touch, pressed leader from 12th, hit 15th, led 3 out, shaken up and drew clear from next, blundered last, stayed on strongly (op 4-7 tchd 4-6 in places)
Still blundering the odd fence (as we know he liked to blunder the last)
Don Cossack in last years KG
Cue Card in last years GC
These chasers like to blunder a few,
Thistlecrack has blundered one as well. No worries.
Made all, raced enthusiastically and jumped well, quickened pace after 13th, steadied and joined briefly between last 2, soon came clear, easily (op 2/13)
Led until 2nd, tracked leader, blundered 5th, led and quickened pace 11th, soon clear, reduced advantage 3 out, drew effortlessly clear again before next, eased run-in (op 2/11 tchd 2/9 in places)
Some on here are suggesting that he is *prone* to making race fault(s), ballooning etc.
THEY ALL MAKE THE ODD MISTAKE.
Let's have a look at Kauto Star on his 2nd ever chase
Chased leader, led on bit after 8th, 12 lengths clear when fell 2 out, remounted without irons, hit last, ran on well flat, just failed (op 1-6 tchd 1-5 in places)
Now have a look at the first King George win of Kauto Star
Well in touch, pressed leader from 12th, hit 15th, led 3 out, shaken up and drew clear from next, blundered last, stayed on strongly (op 4-7 tchd 4-6 in places)
Still blundering the odd fence (as we know he liked to blunder the last)
Don Cossack in last years KG
Cue Card in last years GC
These chasers like to blunder a few,
Thistlecrack has blundered one as well. No worries.
Let's have a look at Kauto Star on his 2nd ever chase
Chased leader, led on bit after 8th, 12 lengths clear when fell 2 out, remounted without irons, hit last, ran on well flat, just failed (op 1-6 tchd 1-5 in places)
Whilst 5 years old with plenty of time ahead of him
you missed that bit.
Chased leader, led on bit after 8th, 12 lengths clear when fell 2 out, remounted without irons, hit last, ran on well flat, just failed (op 1-6 tchd 1-5 in places)
Whilst 5 years old with plenty of time ahead of him
you missed that bit.
Thistlecrack hasn't fallen nor does he need 2 years to strengthen up
I also missed that bit out
I also missed that bit out
Everything we talk about regarding thistlecrack is in the context of a gc contender come march, that means he should be judged harder than other younger horses, and no the performance he put in at Cheltenham wouldn't be good enough to win a gold cup, that much is obvious, not saying he can't eradicate what he did wrong, but he was guessy at two fences and gave another about 5 foot, that's what happened, and in terms of gold cup discussion it's a non starter
My point being even Kauto blundered, stumbled, UR, fell, wacked the last....in many a race.
If this is normal even for top notch chasers, i see no worries regarding Thistlecrack blundering one fence and being a bit fiddly at one or two others.
If this is normal even for top notch chasers, i see no worries regarding Thistlecrack blundering one fence and being a bit fiddly at one or two others.
When he wants to be quick at one, he has proved that he has that in the bag.
That's the point, fiddly is fine, that shows the horse is taking charge and basically getting himself over the fence when at odds with the jockey.
Thistlecrack didn't do that, he came toward two fences and didn't know what to do as he felt he was on the wrong stride, so instead of getting in close and being clever, he took off a stride too early and nearly landed on top of them, that's the most fundamental aspect of what happened, he didn't know what to do when he felt he was on the wrong stride.
Thistlecrack didn't do that, he came toward two fences and didn't know what to do as he felt he was on the wrong stride, so instead of getting in close and being clever, he took off a stride too early and nearly landed on top of them, that's the most fundamental aspect of what happened, he didn't know what to do when he felt he was on the wrong stride.
Duffy
You are talking about the two open ditches on the first circuit. You can't get in too close, but granted he too off way too early.
However on the 2nd circuit he was more cautious at the first of the open ditches and still brave at the 2nd open ditch but got it right. He remembered the error of his ways.
He jumped 19 fences, was too brave at the two open ditches, learnt from that and produced some quick efficient jumps throughout the race.
You are talking about the two open ditches on the first circuit. You can't get in too close, but granted he too off way too early.
However on the 2nd circuit he was more cautious at the first of the open ditches and still brave at the 2nd open ditch but got it right. He remembered the error of his ways.
He jumped 19 fences, was too brave at the two open ditches, learnt from that and produced some quick efficient jumps throughout the race.
There is link here if anyone wants to check their analysis.
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/47088/thistlecrack-makes-it-two-from-two-over-fences-at-cheltenham
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/47088/thistlecrack-makes-it-two-from-two-over-fences-at-cheltenham
Thistlecrack is a crack 3m hurdler but at 7/2 for the Gold Cup next Match is far, far too short - he should be at least 7/1 to be considered a betting proposition. In addition, he is still very much a chasing novice and his participation in the Gold Cup is not a certainty (yet) unlike the likes of Djakadam, Cue Card, Coneygree, Valseur Lido, etc - Thistlecrack's participation solely hinges on his jumping (improvement) between now and next March or this x'mas.
If he does not improve on his jumping display at Cheltenham recently he'd be an unlikely Gold Cup runner I'd not hesitate to opine.
If he does not improve on his jumping display at Cheltenham recently he'd be an unlikely Gold Cup runner I'd not hesitate to opine.
The focus is on The Gold Cup. Why go right handed when he clearly needs to come to terms with the undulations at Cheltenham?
The Cotswold Chase gives him the opportunity to gain extra experience at Cheltenham whilst taking on Grade 1 horses in a less competitive race than the Gold Cup itself will prove.
The Cotswold Chase gives him the opportunity to gain extra experience at Cheltenham whilst taking on Grade 1 horses in a less competitive race than the Gold Cup itself will prove.
Good point loper, however it's not the undulations that he has to come to terms with, it's those two open ditches.
He jumped them better on the final circuit when out on his own. He needs to jump them better when in a pack though.
Not sure if Colin can teach him this at home.
Every other fence he jumped well, it's his tendency to take off too early at open ditches which is his only blemish.
The Cotswold Chase is a good recommendation.
He jumped them better on the final circuit when out on his own. He needs to jump them better when in a pack though.
Not sure if Colin can teach him this at home.
Every other fence he jumped well, it's his tendency to take off too early at open ditches which is his only blemish.
The Cotswold Chase is a good recommendation.
No horse is a certain runner in any Festival race at this stage. Still around 1/3 to nominate a runner at the meeting with so many reasons why a horse might not run. I would run Thistlecrack again at Cheltenham in early December if there is s suitable race.
Newbury will be a good test of his jumping and well in a couple of weeks. I think fences 2 & 8 are open ditches, so see how he tackles those. Hopefully there will be a few more runners.
Yes, not sure how anyone can say anything is a certainty for the Gold Cup. Especially with physical issues to overcome for one or two.
Yes, not sure how anyone can say anything is a certainty for the Gold Cup. Especially with physical issues to overcome for one or two.
Apart from the ditches he jumped all the other fences pretty well. He needs more practice over the ditches so the Cotswold chase is definitely the ideal target. Usually the likely heavy ground would be a slight concern as a gold cup prep but he won at the meeting last year and has such a good constitution it seems the way to go. Certainly not the King George.
The horse has been in a league of its own for over a year, makes a couple of errors but never looked close to falling last time out and took the mick out of a graded stakes class horse. I have not seen anything travel so powerfully since Denman. Thistlecrack wins any jump race he turns up in unless he isn't sound or falls but even the greats fall, Kauto Star, Cue Card et all!
DON'T LISTEN TO THE MARKET MANIPULATORS ON TV, they just love to spin these horses, I bet their all on at 5s for the Gold Cup!
DON'T LISTEN TO THE MARKET MANIPULATORS ON TV, they just love to spin these horses, I bet their all on at 5s for the Gold Cup!
i suppose it all hinges on how cue card progress,s and maybe even native river,they wont have 3 gold cup runners with a live chance and let a world hurdle go begging surely
bigwillystyle 1707 post says he has fook all chance of beating douvan he seems to know his stuff.
A certainty in participation in a stated race in Horse Racing usually means 'all things being equal' ie the welfare of the horse, and not the trainer, course/weather (venue could be rescheduled). And in Thistlecrack's case a definitive improvement in his ability to jump competently and competitively to justify his price at the head of the betting market presently against seasoned Gold Cup veterans next March.
If the price of Thistlecrack is 7/1 or more his jumping proficiency would not be under the present intense scrutiny and judgement, I'm very sure of that.
If the price of Thistlecrack is 7/1 or more his jumping proficiency would not be under the present intense scrutiny and judgement, I'm very sure of that.
Dare I say that he's been "in a league of his own" over hurdles! and dare I say that I've seen a few travel as powerfully since Denman
Thistlecrack is 7/2 because 90% of his jumping has been very good and no other horse in the race would get within 10L of him over hurdles.
Until they all race together over fences, who knows.
But obviously some punters are keen to snap up 4/1 for him for the GC.
Until they all race together over fences, who knows.
But obviously some punters are keen to snap up 4/1 for him for the GC.
What is the Gold Cup, a hurdle race or over fences? And the fact is Thistlecrack has had very limited experience over them ie only 2 races, and he is 9 yrs old.
Punters are weighing up both Thistlecrack's incredible engine with his natural ability over fences.
Horses like Thistlecrack do not come along very often.
Come March he will have had 4 or 5 Chase starts.
So far he has jumped 90% of his fences perfectly.
Horses like Thistlecrack do not come along very often.
Come March he will have had 4 or 5 Chase starts.
So far he has jumped 90% of his fences perfectly.
Bigwillystyle
Date Joined: 16 Jul 10
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15 Nov 16 17:07 Joined: 16 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,450 | Blogger: Bigwillystyle's blog
Nearly guaranteed to come a cropper at Kempton in the KG. Has a very poor jockey on board(Id say they are very keen to get him off) and you can easily see it landing in the middle of a fence taking on seasoned enough horses.
Has fook all chance of beating Douvan anyways.
Bigwillystyle
Date Joined: 16 Jul 10
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15 Nov 16 18:27 Joined: 16 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,450 | Blogger: Bigwillystyle's blog
There are 20 plus riders better than him in Ireland alone. An awful judge of pace.
Can only assume this guy is a wind-up merchant... because he cannot seriously be writing this stuff for real!!
1) Scudamore was specifically chosen to ride the horse and is a brilliant choice - a thinker and a listener (both to owners/trainers and to the horses themselves)
2) He may not be the judge of pace his father was (yet)m but he has plenty of years to learn - and is no mug.
3) Many of those so-called better jocks in Ireland are fine lolluping around at walking pace on bog-trotters in bottomless ground with a stone in hand on a park course, or following the hounds but when push comes to shove in Graded races on fast ground in England they don't look so cute and clever... Even Ruby went years and years without a chase win at the Festival despite being on a pile of favourites ffs!
Oh and
4) Douvan won't even be IN the Gold Cup ffs, barring injury to a pile of Mullins' other horses (please God, no!) - not least because
4a) its never run further than 17 furlongs,
4b) they KNOW it will NEVER in a month of sundays get up the hill after 3 miles or more...
4c) and a proven stayer like Thistlecrack would tear Douvan's heart out on the second circuit...
So jog on joker... you had your laugh... or if you're serious - bigwilly? no, just an almighty cxxk with a big mouth!
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15 Nov 16 17:07 Joined: 16 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,450 | Blogger: Bigwillystyle's blog
Nearly guaranteed to come a cropper at Kempton in the KG. Has a very poor jockey on board(Id say they are very keen to get him off) and you can easily see it landing in the middle of a fence taking on seasoned enough horses.
Has fook all chance of beating Douvan anyways.
Bigwillystyle
Date Joined: 16 Jul 10
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15 Nov 16 18:27 Joined: 16 Jul 10 | Topic/replies: 2,450 | Blogger: Bigwillystyle's blog
There are 20 plus riders better than him in Ireland alone. An awful judge of pace.
Can only assume this guy is a wind-up merchant... because he cannot seriously be writing this stuff for real!!
1) Scudamore was specifically chosen to ride the horse and is a brilliant choice - a thinker and a listener (both to owners/trainers and to the horses themselves)
2) He may not be the judge of pace his father was (yet)m but he has plenty of years to learn - and is no mug.
3) Many of those so-called better jocks in Ireland are fine lolluping around at walking pace on bog-trotters in bottomless ground with a stone in hand on a park course, or following the hounds but when push comes to shove in Graded races on fast ground in England they don't look so cute and clever... Even Ruby went years and years without a chase win at the Festival despite being on a pile of favourites ffs!
Oh and
4) Douvan won't even be IN the Gold Cup ffs, barring injury to a pile of Mullins' other horses (please God, no!) - not least because
4a) its never run further than 17 furlongs,
4b) they KNOW it will NEVER in a month of sundays get up the hill after 3 miles or more...
4c) and a proven stayer like Thistlecrack would tear Douvan's heart out on the second circuit...
So jog on joker... you had your laugh... or if you're serious - bigwilly? no, just an almighty cxxk with a big mouth!
Fashion Fever 16 Nov 16 21:08 Joined: 04 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 2,301 | Blogger: Fashion Fever's blog
think he only goes to the KG if cue card cant
For what it's worth, I've had a small bet on Thistlecrack to win the KG...
I'm guessing (hoping) the logic behind keeping them apart is to give Cue Card a crack at the Triple Crown...
However, were Cue Card NOT to win at Haydock, and were Thistlecrack to have another largely pointless training run/easy win against novices at Newbury, I wonder if the temptation to pitch Thistle into the KG would grow...
Maybe some of these big mouth doubters will put their £s where their ==>s are and put up some 20s for the KG and 10s for the GC and let us believers fill our boots
think he only goes to the KG if cue card cant
For what it's worth, I've had a small bet on Thistlecrack to win the KG...
I'm guessing (hoping) the logic behind keeping them apart is to give Cue Card a crack at the Triple Crown...
However, were Cue Card NOT to win at Haydock, and were Thistlecrack to have another largely pointless training run/easy win against novices at Newbury, I wonder if the temptation to pitch Thistle into the KG would grow...
Maybe some of these big mouth doubters will put their £s where their ==>s are and put up some 20s for the KG and 10s for the GC and let us believers fill our boots
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There are some cracking predictions on this thread!
Absolutely Cardiff. My post referred to those who were adamant it wouldn't happen.
Best post on the thread was from this Forumite, real knowledgeable person, talks a lot of sense:
The horse has been in a league of its own for over a year, makes a couple of errors but never looked close to falling last time out and took the mick out of a graded stakes class horse. I have not seen anything travel so powerfully since Denman. Thistlecrack wins any jump race he turns up in unless he isn't sound or falls but even the greats fall, Kauto Star, Cue Card et all!
DON'T LISTEN TO THE MARKET MANIPULATORS ON TV, they just love to spin these horses, I bet their all on at 5s for the Gold Cup!
The horse has been in a league of its own for over a year, makes a couple of errors but never looked close to falling last time out and took the mick out of a graded stakes class horse. I have not seen anything travel so powerfully since Denman. Thistlecrack wins any jump race he turns up in unless he isn't sound or falls but even the greats fall, Kauto Star, Cue Card et all!
DON'T LISTEN TO THE MARKET MANIPULATORS ON TV, they just love to spin these horses, I bet their all on at 5s for the Gold Cup!
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