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O'Brien senior is sweeping all before him at the moment but the clock suggests the 2000 gns is no gimme for Churchill.
The time picture on the Rowley course is complicated by a perceived time bias to races of 1m 1f plus. I estimate the firm ground out in the country to be speeding the horses up by 2 seconds per mile, though that information will only be of interest to private speed handicappers.
However, there have been sufficient races over 6 and 7 furlongs to adequately gauge C's performance. In short it was the weakest of the first 4 races on the card, (run over 6, 7, 8, and 7 furlongs).
Chuechill hadnt impressed on the clock b4 the Dewhurst and his speed figure of 69 ties in with figures achieved by other members of the field such as Rivet, Thunder Snow and Balding's South Seas - none of whom boast classic speed credentials.
For example Churchill only beat the 7 furlong nursery by 1.21 seconds and it should have been 1.7 seconds faster according to the difference in class between the 2 races over the same CD.
Consequently, with Churchill shortened to 2/1 best for the 2000 gns, there should be a few value alternatives to be had bewtween now and the 6th of May.
Vitavox.
The time picture on the Rowley course is complicated by a perceived time bias to races of 1m 1f plus. I estimate the firm ground out in the country to be speeding the horses up by 2 seconds per mile, though that information will only be of interest to private speed handicappers.
However, there have been sufficient races over 6 and 7 furlongs to adequately gauge C's performance. In short it was the weakest of the first 4 races on the card, (run over 6, 7, 8, and 7 furlongs).
Chuechill hadnt impressed on the clock b4 the Dewhurst and his speed figure of 69 ties in with figures achieved by other members of the field such as Rivet, Thunder Snow and Balding's South Seas - none of whom boast classic speed credentials.
For example Churchill only beat the 7 furlong nursery by 1.21 seconds and it should have been 1.7 seconds faster according to the difference in class between the 2 races over the same CD.
Consequently, with Churchill shortened to 2/1 best for the 2000 gns, there should be a few value alternatives to be had bewtween now and the 6th of May.
Vitavox.
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You need to get a better clock,kid(NAP)
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Of course he did not clear a clear run when the gap closed over one furlong out and had to be switched around a couple of runners and the evidence is he was not racing on the fastest part of the track. He has enough tactical speed to win races however they pan out and I will certainly be backing him in races next year. I am not a big fan of backing anything ante-post for the 2000 Guineas especially at 2/1 as between now and next May an unconsidered horse might improve and change the market significantly.
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It's hard to get stuck in at that price,agreed,Air Force Blue excepted,looks the right type to me.
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9/10 times the clock horses win classics ,as they go a better pace with class one horses u tend to get truly run races not many winning on bridle ,
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I rarely use clock figures for UK flat racing with so many variables, they are more suited to the US style or Greyhounds. Mart I totally disagree with 9/10, if it was true, then picking winners would be childs' play. The best horse ever to grace turf never broke a track record (although he did some superb furlong sectionals at times). Churchill won well yesterday, I didn't think he was going to pick up 2.5f out and he will be better over 8f, although I wouldn't back him at 2/1 for the 2000 gns today (next March maybe
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Andrew - I use to be a regular at Hove Dogs and a big punter back then. (I even went to the trials on Mondays to catch a glimpse of the new intake and dogs returning from injury.) Quite a few of the bigger players use to bet on 'make up', and not time. Make-up is a concept that applies to the positioning of the dog in the traps relative to all the other dogs taking into account their running style and likely route (swing wide at bends, cut in at bends, move off, rail, wide straights, break well, break slowly, finish well, chase and hang etc.,).My thing was track bias - I use to mark with a spot dogs that ran well under adverse conditions, against the front to back bias, say, or against the side to side track bias. I would back them next time out usually when conditions were even or the bias the other way. Then there was the grade - was the dog in this grade or would it be outclassed. I dont think I ever knew a punter or bookie who went on time (solely).
Busvaldo - I'm 67 and have been studying form all my life and 'Time' for about 6 years. What is 'NAP'? Storm Alert - what is 'tactical speed'? Btw, Rhodedendrun wasnt particularly quick either. The other Guineas is still wide open as well. V. |
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i apply weight handicapping to g1 races,churchill is 6lbs well in ,on the day take best price, frankel never gave weight away,in all its races.
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If you're 67 NAP is what you have in the afternoon. 40 winks.
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I thought this horse though having had plenty of experience has looked a bit of a big baby that has every chance of developing up in trip as a 3yo unlike so many of the 'speedy' 2yo's that never go on as 3yo's.
The race the other day it did not have a clear run on a day when getting on or close to the near rail looked to be the place to be on the speed.I actually thought it did well to get on top like it did in those circumstances. I'm not sure at this stage the clock is too relevant but I'd never be taking 2/1 at this stage on any race that far away, It's likely strong challengers will emerge nearer the time of course but this is a different matter to crabbing this particular horse on the clock. |
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As for Frankel deadbrain I'd like to know what you made of it's guineas and SJP runs on your clock ratings, the early speed in the guineas was ridiculous for the trip and the fractions in the SJP when taking up the running so early suggested to me it was a special horse as it should never have got home racing like this.
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unknown horses dont really appear for the guineas these days do they? race comes too early in the season. churchill is a fair bet imo,,, defo wouldnt be laying 2/1
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That's a fair point recently, i suppose. Plenty been put away early, Hannon's winner returned the following season and Camelot hadn't been out yet but perhaps it is trending as you say.
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*apologies with Camelot, of course was out earlier in season for maiden in ireland 3 months before RPT win at donny.
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frankel canford cliffs sussex stakes ,1/1 bet of the century.
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Vitavox sorry but I have to totally disagree with what you have said. My speed ratings make Churchills performance by far the best of the first 4 races on the card. Its actually the second best speed rating on my figures by a 2yo this season (top was Lady Aueralla).
1.2 secs quicker than a £25K Nursery which was very strongly run, means it would have won that Nursery by 12 lengths. For me that is classic form. Not sure where you get the par being 1.7 secs quicker, not for me i'm afraid. |