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Vitavox
01 Oct 16 10:46
Joined:
Date Joined: 14 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 268 | Blogger: Vitavox's blog
Shalaa won his last 5 races in 2015 and was the hot close season fav for the Commonwealth Cup, but how is that form shaping up in the light of this seasons form?
The last race S ran in was the Middle Park where the seconbd was Buratino, the third Steady pace, fourth was Ajaya and fifth Rouleau. None ran again that year, but Ajaya has been deeply disappointing and is now retired to stud, Buratino has gone 9,4,7,8,8 (that was 8th of 9 in a Group 3), Steady Paces last 2 races this year have seen it 4th of 8 in a conditions race won by Monsieur Joe and last of 3 in a C conditions race and Rouleau was recently 11 of 12 in a 0-105 handicap at Newmarket. The time of the Middle Park was that of a 0-80 handicap.

Prior to that Shalaa won the Prix Morny beating Gutaifan (in the slowest race of the day). Gutaifan beat Ornate and Log OUt Island n.t.o which looks ok but Ornate was beaten yesterday in a 0-105 handicap off a mark of 100 and G has not appeared and maybe has been sold to race abroad.

The French race followed the win in the Richmond, a Group 2 , beating Tasleet and Steady Pace (see above) in the slowest time of the day. Tasleet won a sales race at York and was then  beaten in a Group 3. In his sole appearance in 2016 Tasleet won a 3 horse Group 3 in a slow time to Knife Edge who has had 1 race since, winning the German 2000 guineas.

Its not good form from today's perspective, though Gosden has found just about the weakest race available for his comeback. I couldnt back it and surely this will drift like a barge..
V.
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Report TheFear October 1, 2016 10:47 AM BST
a race for those in the know
Report Ibrahima Sonko October 1, 2016 2:57 PM BST
Good read V, looked a smart 2yo but this is a tricky race to comeback in against seasoned horses.
Report Proted October 1, 2016 3:04 PM BST
Dont Touch back to lay for me gl
Report N-east Correspondent October 1, 2016 3:04 PM BST
Guessing with the fav though a shade over 2/1 could be generous in 5 mins

Don't Touch on soft ground could be an ew bet to nothing

gl
Report Platini October 1, 2016 3:06 PM BST
could be another air force blue,  swerve for me.
Report Ibrahima Sonko October 1, 2016 3:08 PM BST
Nice return
Report Platini October 1, 2016 3:08 PM BST
close
Report Cheify October 1, 2016 3:09 PM BST
Hands and Heels
Report freddiewilliams October 1, 2016 3:10 PM BST
we only had him 80%
Report roida October 1, 2016 11:24 PM BST
another reason why the form book study can make you look foolish.
Report chavman October 1, 2016 11:30 PM BST
lovely write up though.reminded me of james joyce
Report roida October 1, 2016 11:55 PM BST
the irish bareknuckle gadgy?
Report GEORGE.B October 1, 2016 11:55 PM BST
I thought it was a crap write-up (please see OP's other thread - he wants criticism!).

Cuz I suppose the pertinent question should have been - why are they persevering with him?

They could have retired him to stud as a Group 1 winner of his final start - yet here they are in the October of his 3YO career, risking his reputation. Shirley the question should have been: Would Gosden do this if he thought the horse wasn't up to it?

As it turned out the horse only scrambled home, so Vitavox can say he was nearly right!

I didn't have a view either way, my point is: it wasn't just about form, it was about Gosden's judgement.
Report Vitavox October 2, 2016 7:06 PM BST
Mehronissa'a OR was 98 when it won that Ponte Listed and was raised to 105 in the 32RED. 'Scrambling home' by a small margin from this mare  does indeed vindicate my position. It was unimpressive. Form, class and time are the appropriate concepts for successful tipping and punting, not second guessing the intentions of trainers.
It was quite a good write up, took me quite a while to research, and provided accurate information for the members of this forum to consider when approaching the race.
They might yet retire him before he runs again..because according to my speed figures it cant win against Group 1 opposition -

There were 5 races run on the straight course at Ascot and Shalaa's win was the slowest of the lot (adjusted for class)-
Highest figure best (in seconds per mile fast):

Eternally 2.0
Shalaa 0.4
Librisa Breeze 1.4
Easy Road 1.4
Shamson 2.1

There may be improvement in Shalaa but it wont be carrying my money in the Qipco Champions Sprint against the likes of Quiet Reflection, Meccas Angel et al.

V.
Report GEORGE.B October 2, 2016 7:44 PM BST
because according to my speed figures it cant win against Group 1 opposition -


It already has - TWICE (yes I know what you're saying, but it can only beat what's put in front of it), and the bottom line yesterday was that it WON AGAIN, so hopefully you didn't put off anyone who had intended to back it! And if you did, then perhaps you should apologise instead of blowing your own trumpet!

And as for yesterday, race run in awful conditions, on it's first run since serious injury and when pusssy was a kitten, when fitness might have been an issue, without recourse to the whip, under hands and heels, yet it still won, from a race-fit, bang-in-form, improving filly who had the kitchen sink thrown at it!

Keep laying it!
Report Vitavox October 3, 2016 10:06 AM BST
It did win 2 Group 1s as a 2 y.o. That is a fact. But it faced what has turned out to be weak opposition and on both occasions it failed to meet the par time for a 2 y.o. Group 1.(In any case my argument was focussing on the form and time of its races - I didnt mention class.)It did have class credentials in its comeback race as you correctly point out.

If tipsters were obliged to apologise for every loser they tipped or winner they opposed then this Forum, RUK, and the Racing Post would be submerged with them.

Further, I tipped Speedy Boarding to win the Opera and Found to win the Arc (both in this place) - where's my credit? (And thanks for enriching some members who may have backed them.)

Yesterday, Shalaa beat Mehronissa who reproduced the same speed figure (60) she managed in the 32RED so she is not improving, merely running at the same level. Some of those behind who are good yardsticks, such  as Ridge Ranger and Naadir , were inconvenienced by the rain and didnt run their races.

Its all about opinions George and I am happy for you to have come out in favour of Shalaa and to praise its performance. I take it you think it can win the Qipco Sprint Championship at Ascot?
Are you having a bet in the race?

It might be an idea for us both to reconvene on this thread the morning of the race and debate the form. I would enjoy that.


Vitavox

(Thankyou for your contribution, btw.)
Report GEORGE.B October 3, 2016 11:37 AM BST
I'd be more than happy to reconvene on the day and debate the form, I suspect the forum can hardly wait!

As for having a bet in the race, I've no desire to do so what so ever at this point 12 days in advance, and yourself?

I see Shalaa is currently a 6-1 shot, good luck with your 1-7 lay!
Report Vitavox October 3, 2016 2:09 PM BST

Oct 3, 2016 -- 5:37AM, GEORGE.B wrote:


I'd be more than happy to reconvene on the day and debate the form, I suspect the forum can hardly wait!As for having a bet in the race, I've no desire to do so what so ever at this point 12 days in advance, and yourself?I see Shalaa is currently a 6-1 shot, good luck with your 1-7 lay!


Like yourself George, I wont be betting just yet. I need to know more about what's running and the going. I did take a glance at Topspeed's ratings for the entries and he has Shalaa around 6th or 7th.

Vitavox

Report Golden Fleece October 3, 2016 2:33 PM BST
Vitavox
May I suggest that when analysing form it is only necessary to look at the winner or what came second to the winner (if the horse is a previous winner)of the races being reviewed.
Report Vitavox October 16, 2016 8:07 AM BST
I dont agree Golden Fleece - I look a bit further down than that. I take the top half of the field seriously.

George despite 'being more than happy to reconvene on the day (of the Qipco Champion Sprint) and debate the form' never did so.

Shalaa, as I argued here and in the thread I started on the day of the race (partly to give George an opportunity to argue his case) was not good enough to win the Qipco and I consider my analysis in this thread spot on.

Tom Segal on the Morning Line couldnt have it either for the big race arguing with me that its 2 y.o. form wasnt up to much.


V.
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2016 12:58 AM BST
Don't be a c*nt. I was aware what I had posted on this thread, which is why well in advance of the race I told you on your naps thread that I wouldn't be posting an opinion as I didn't have one having seen the final decs.

Besides, my sarcastic comment at the time: I suspect the forum can hardly wait!
, summed up what I really thought about the suggestion. You need to read between the lines!

The horse went off at around 11-2 on here, so well done for patting yourself on the back for a 2-11 'winner'!
And I'm sure you don't need me to point out to you that the horse did win the day you put this thread up, so overall you're showing a loss on the horse!

As for Shalaa on Saturday, he was keen on the way to the start and in the race itself, raced on the possibly unfavoured part of the track, and probably bounced to the moon off his comeback run just two weeks ago.
Report Vitavox October 17, 2016 9:35 AM BST
Shalaa didnt bounce. Horses bounce after lifetime best speed performances and if you read the form book the horse was well looked after by the jockey and didnt have a hard race in its seasonal debut, AND recorded a time in line with its previous best. I have read Beyer on Speed.

I was hoping for an apology for your disrespectful remarks, poor language and the clear subsequent evidence that you , along with others including Richard Hughes in the RP, hugely overestimated the horse. You made a fool of yourself George and you are not man enough to admit it.

I'm out of this place..you should be suspended for this kind of language and bad attitude.

Vitavox
Report a bitofinterest October 17, 2016 9:37 AM BST
SEEEEEEEEEEEEEETHINGGGGG Angry
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2016 10:25 AM BST
There's only of us making a fool of himself and that's you, starting childish threads to try and prove your 'better' than the likes of Kealy and Segal. GROW UP!

At no point have I overhyped this horse, nor claimed he would win on Saturday, my only passing interest was that I was intrigued they were persevering with the horse when they could have easily retired the horse a dual Group 1 horse.

It's you who should apologise, as I told you I wouldn't be posting any thoughts on the race as it was of no interest to me from a punting perspective, yet being the silly old fool you come across as being, you were trying to 'point sore' again by making an issue of it. What a c*nt!
Report GEORGE.B October 17, 2016 10:26 AM BST
*you're...
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