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Vitavox
04 Sep 16 09:46
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Date Joined: 14 Sep 15
| Topic/replies: 268 | Blogger: Vitavox's blog
In the current Weekender puts forward the idea that we can make money out of forgiving horses who 'flop' . He adds that the examples he is thinking of were backed late on when they did win. But that's difficult to study so what I am trying to establish is the truth of the overall claim that horses do bounce back from poor performances (or not).

To that end I have listed all the horses that in handicaps of 12 or more runners have finished in the bottom 4 starting at < 10/1. The code is the Raceform race number . To count for the claim the horse has to run in the first 4 n.t.o.
The sample is Aug 1 - Aug 29

Minty Jones 4968
Ravenhoe 5017
Qaffal 5017
Eternitys gate 5032
Whozthecat ,
Bopit 5060
Keenes Point 5069
Marshall DT 5122
Dark Castle 5278
Golden Thread 5319
Knight OT Air 5326
Groundworker 5354
My Dad Syd 5836
The Knave 5836
Shanghai Glory
Farlow 5399
New Bidder 5390
Eldonaq 5409
McVicar 5481
Poolstock5483
Sindarban 5611
Bobby Wheeler 5616
Blistering Dancer 5628
Powerallied 5641
Kibaar 5641
Revolutionist 5647
Master The World 5647
Stepper Point 5648
Snoana 5651
Misterioso
Arctic Flower 5721
Miramonte Dancer 5732
Thrilled 5797
Top Of The Glas 5837
Gerry The Glover 5886
Flyball 5889
Kings Currency 5920
Bazula 5920
Prince Of Cardoman 5954
Latin Rebel 5971

V.
Pause Switch to Standard View Is 'forgiveness' the key to good...
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Report Vitavox September 4, 2016 9:47 AM BST
Its Tom Segal's article.
V.
Report Deltâ September 4, 2016 9:52 AM BST
their not machines
Report saddo September 4, 2016 9:56 AM BST
What's going on hear please?
Report johnn September 4, 2016 9:59 AM BST
HeLlO SaDdo m5
Report saddo September 4, 2016 9:59 AM BST
moRnINg JoHhN m7
Report PHS September 4, 2016 10:00 AM BST
In the current Weekender puts forward

Pardon!
Report Mick Sturbs September 4, 2016 10:08 AM BST
good luck with them it will be interesting to see how many win next time out
Report Breedingmad September 4, 2016 10:16 AM BST
Think you can forgive a bad sprint run e.g slow start,poor draw etc but harder to forgive a flop over a mile or further..i.m.h.o
Report swift-tuttle September 4, 2016 10:23 AM BST
You can of course find out now whether this theory has worked in the past.

The only question is how long the period of forgiveness should be.
Report tunnocks September 4, 2016 10:34 AM BST
How many races are won by the form horse? can't be a high percentage or we would all be winners and the bookies would'nt be driving Bentleys. Horses, like us, are not machines (except Frankel), some days they just can't be arsed, but how do we know? how does the trainer know?
Report Breedingmad September 4, 2016 10:38 AM BST
I've always wondered whether horses get stitches when running long distances, just like us humans?
Report swift-tuttle September 4, 2016 11:24 AM BST
what the unsaid thing seems to be here is 'not today'

so form experts like Segal have to factor this in
Report Ramruma September 4, 2016 11:24 AM BST
@tunnocks How many races are won by the form horse? can't be a high percentage or we would all be winners and the bookies would'nt be driving Bentleys. Horses, like us, are not machines (except Frankel), some days they just can't be arsed, but how do we know? how does the trainer know?

How many races are won by the form horse? About a third of races are won by the favourite. Timeform say more than half are won by one of their top two rated.

How can we tell? Paddock-watching; following the market.

How can the trainer tell? By their performance on the gallops, perhaps. Some yards rest horses out of form, others run out of form horses in order to get their handicap mark down. But a lot of the time the trainer can't tell.

Even after the race, if a horse in the middle of the betting finishes down the field, has it run to form or not? How can you tell if finishing 8th is right and it shouldn't have finished 7th (so has run below form) or 9th (so has run above form)? If a horse who should have won comes second, has it gone backwards or has the winner improved, or neither and the race was decided by the draw or getting blocked in?

Some punters think it is all a big conspiracy with trainers as Machiavellian geniuses pulling the horses until the money is down. I take the view that most trainers are doing their best but are incompetent fools (and sometimes drunk most of the day).

That's why I'm happy to forgive bad runs. There again, I don't drive a Bentley either.
Report Dr Crippen September 4, 2016 12:25 PM BST
How many races are won by the form horse?

What is the form horse?
Report Rider September 4, 2016 12:34 PM BST
its about being unemotional, so 'forgiveness' is entirely the wrong way of looking at it
Report stridingedge September 4, 2016 1:41 PM BST
Forgiveness in the lower classes, where forgiveness means overlooking what on paper look like bad runs is an essential element in your mindset imo. I tend to feel that going up through the classes this level of forgiveness should be reduced as the competition gets hotter.
Report stridingedge September 4, 2016 1:43 PM BST
*I know plenty on here think taking part in the lower class racing and aw racing is tantamount to devil worship but plenty of decent folk on here actually concentrate on this to find their angles and 'forgiveness' is a key element here.
Report dave1357 September 4, 2016 1:56 PM BST

Sep 4, 2016 -- 10:23AM, swift-tuttle wrote:


You can of course find out now whether this theory has worked in the past.The only question is how long the period of forgiveness should be.


exactly - Segal knows this - he is just trying to generate a bit of interest from mugs

Using his criteria (on turf flat last 10 years):

Runs 4616 £1 Win @ SP £-903.91 (-19.6%)

Report duncan idaho September 4, 2016 2:47 PM BST
what is Segal's criteria you've used, dave?
Report oneyallbeenwaiting4 September 4, 2016 3:12 PM BST
its not a case of forgiveness, its a case of understanding how the game works

if I find a horse that has won off higher and is running at the right trip on suitable conditions, unless the horse is gone at the game which is quite rare in the grand scheme, I can disregard 90% its recent runs, I dont have to forgive them, I can look at them for more information but ultimately they are irrelevant, the relevant form is further back in the book

when an unexposed horse is well ahead of its mark, it will often win, lose, win, lose win as it goes up the handicap, sometimes being well beaten in the losses so if you thought one was well ahead you can certainly forgive a bad run

in higher classes there is only so much you can forgive
Report stridingedge September 4, 2016 3:20 PM BST
The term forgiveness might not be the right one, I take it to mean can i scrap runs where the horse has been comfortably beaten.

As well as just an off day this may incorporate so many different scenarios as to why conditions may not have been optimum, you could have jockey error, pace of the race as well as all the form factors to take into account.

A simple measure just won't cut it in trying to investigate this idea of forgiveness (i wouldn't use the term).
Report dave1357 September 4, 2016 3:26 PM BST

Sep 4, 2016 -- 2:47PM, duncan idaho wrote:


what is Segal's criteria you've used, dave?


the ones in OP LTO placed in last 4, LTO handicap, LTO SP < 10 LTO runners > 11

looking at the actual horses, there are some long shots that win, I imagine that is his plan - the odd 33-1 winner is a great headline.

Report stridingedge September 4, 2016 3:36 PM BST
example

Horse A may have been running well and winning and gone up the hcp to a new high several lbs above the start of it's winning sequence, it may then have had 2 or 3 runs in what look like optimum conditions where it hasn't managed to hit the frame but has only been eased 1b or 2.

Horse B may have been coming down the handicap in the current season and suddenly been stepped up to a trip it has never raced off before now several lbs below it's last winning mark.

I might not forgive Horse A’s 3 runs out of the frame running again over similar conditions as i feel it's just too high in it's OR but be prepared to forgive Horse B ten runs with no wins and just a place or 2 if i have had a hunch it has needed the trip now at this stage of it's career.


There's so many different factors involved here I can't see how you'd possibly measure the results to try and get some rating of 'forgiveness' unless you broke all these runners up into certain subsets, ie all the horse A's and B's with a similar level of runs you are forgiving in each of their circumstances.
Report onlooker September 4, 2016 4:18 PM BST
"Foregiveness" - This method is also know as ...

'Following them over a cliff'.
Report duncan idaho September 4, 2016 4:54 PM BST
cheers dave...not possible to look at 'fin in last 4' on my database...in general, they are not machines and overlooking a bad run is often a good way to obtaining value, though there is obv judgement involved in deciding which horses are worth persevering with and which ones arent...those that forgave Meccas Angel her too-bad-to-be-true run at Royal Ascot will be glad they followed her over a cliff Cool
Report onlooker September 4, 2016 5:01 PM BST
duncan - Mecca's was just ONE run in a string of exceptional outings.

'Following them over a cliff' - refers to backing them, Again, and again, and again -
by keep 'Forgiving' them ... as, I am sure, you well know. Happy
Report onlooker September 4, 2016 5:39 PM BST
To put the OP's OPENING post into a little more perspective,

It refers to Tom Segal's column in this week's Weekender -

-  the column, and consequent  rationale, has been stimulated by, and highlights, the number of MARK JOHNSTON's horses winning, next time out, after being, "tailed off."

Perhaps that puts the methodology into a somewhat different light.
Report tunnocks September 4, 2016 8:05 PM BST
@Ramruna...How many races are won by the form horse? About a third of races are won by the favourite. Timeform say more than half are won by one of their top two rated.
So betting favourites you lose 66% of the time.
So we should be lumping on Timeforms top 2 rated and we are all winners?, sounds to easy, which type of races do they do best in?
Report Ramruma September 4, 2016 8:55 PM BST
The opposite is also true, imo. Especially at the top end, pundits and even the official handicapper sometimes get carried away with an impressive performance, and you need to downgrade it a bit.
Report Ramruma September 4, 2016 8:57 PM BST
@tunnocks -- the point is that form holds up most of the time.
Report differentdrum September 5, 2016 12:44 AM BST
All for forgiving a horse a bad run if there is a logical reason to do so. A logical reason wouldn't simply be that it is trained by Mark Johnston. His horses just defy any punting rules.
Report Vitavox September 8, 2016 8:10 AM BST
I have logged 12 failures to reach the first 4 n.t.o for the sample. Further results to follow as the horses come out again.


V.
Report basilbrush September 8, 2016 5:24 PM BST
Jeeez, no wonder the vast majority of you people lose in the long run, what nonsense this thread actually is, beggars belief.
Report mactheknife September 8, 2016 5:38 PM BST
Not many can know where trainers are exactly with their horses, some reasons given below.
Training cycles, currently working a mark, horses well thought off that disappoint or improving horses continue to defy the handicapper.
How on earth are we to come to terms with that lot? there will be more reasons not listed.
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