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21 Apr 16
14:22
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Date Joined:
16 Aug 05
Rare that a UK race captures my interest but this one has, let me say though that this is a hunch play nothing more, otherwise I would have posted on the ryanwe thread like I normally do.
To me the front of the market looks weak and consequently have chosen to take the front three on for the following reasons
Sharp Rise - name says it all, despite this seasons improvement, unlikely to get as soft a lead as last time, this looks a step too far to me
Tennis Cap - burdened with upholding the Mullins challenge for Champion Trainer, best with cut and combination of weight and ground could be too much
Just Cameron - best runs are on softer going and with weight on back looks more like a place than a win to me
To what is running for me, I like in the following order
Alderbrook Lad - known to clout one but should thrive for the drying ground
Shadows Lengthen - not shown much but very capable on a going day
Filbert - connections to be respected and this horse had threatened to be decent, fact they have persevered with it implies they still think it has a victory in it
Witness in Court - last years winner, had problems with the fences recently and better with some give underfoot
Dare Me/Saints and Sinners/Gleann na Ndochais - not my idea of dangers but couldn't rule out completely if things went their way
This is a hunch as I said so no big money involved, prior to in running have losses on front three with largest liability for Sharp Rise at 200, best profit is for Alderbrook Lad of just under 700, will attempt to green up in running on the three "losers" at large prices for small stakes if events in the race permit it.
Any/all thoughts on the race are welcome
To me the front of the market looks weak and consequently have chosen to take the front three on for the following reasons
Sharp Rise - name says it all, despite this seasons improvement, unlikely to get as soft a lead as last time, this looks a step too far to me
Tennis Cap - burdened with upholding the Mullins challenge for Champion Trainer, best with cut and combination of weight and ground could be too much
Just Cameron - best runs are on softer going and with weight on back looks more like a place than a win to me
To what is running for me, I like in the following order
Alderbrook Lad - known to clout one but should thrive for the drying ground
Shadows Lengthen - not shown much but very capable on a going day
Filbert - connections to be respected and this horse had threatened to be decent, fact they have persevered with it implies they still think it has a victory in it
Witness in Court - last years winner, had problems with the fences recently and better with some give underfoot
Dare Me/Saints and Sinners/Gleann na Ndochais - not my idea of dangers but couldn't rule out completely if things went their way
This is a hunch as I said so no big money involved, prior to in running have losses on front three with largest liability for Sharp Rise at 200, best profit is for Alderbrook Lad of just under 700, will attempt to green up in running on the three "losers" at large prices for small stakes if events in the race permit it.
Any/all thoughts on the race are welcome
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Replies: 8
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GL Nice write up.
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1 down 2 to go
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Great shout. Followed you in! Thanks!
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Thanks guys, any profit is a profit, definitely not to be sneezed at...!
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OP' s betting looked all over the place to me. Confusing as to exactly what money was on which horses.
Was a profit made I wonder ? |
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Pwrhaps we have different abilities with calculations Facts, appeared straightforward enough to me, if I didn't explain it clearly enough my apologies, but to be honest my take was that anyone reading it would have been able to follow such a simple play and you did have ample time to request an explanation.
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I just bet one horse straight win single. So much easier. - and more profitable imo. Hth.
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Apologies for delay in replying, I as a rule only play singles myself, hence my posts appear on the ryanwe thread as and when I choose to play, US racing tends to be my main source of income but as a "free agent" these days, I view the UK and Irish racing most afternoons and when I have a hunch like today don't mind speculating with a few pounds to see if my judgement is correct, no harm in keeping my eye in and seeing how good or bad my analysis is.
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