Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Had to laugh this morning when I saw his latest Betfair column which was built up as the news on some of his 'stars' ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.
Not a mention of any Gold Cup horse... because he no longer has any. Silviniaco Conti is a million to one for me if he takes his chance in the World Hurdle, and his other entries are hardly worth mentioning either.
So that leaves Dodging Bullets, about a 10/1 shot for the Champion Chase.
And that's it.
He has no established horses who are strong favs for any races at the Festival. He has no Novices who would get within 20 lengths of the Mullins horses. And if he's talking about Dodging Bullets, Silviniaco Conti, and Saphir Du Rheu as his 'stars' then he's will up the creek without a paddle.
It's all becoming clear now, why Dan Skelton went off on his own, why Ruby Walsh give up his role as stable jockey (he could easily have had both jobs, just like he used to), why the best jockey he get now as his stable jockey is STD.
Loads of rumours were flying around that while he was at the very top and had the likes of Denman, Kauto, Big Bucks, Master Minded etc, that he got way too big for his boots and become a very arrogant man. He lost a lot of friends, and now that he needs some more good horses, those friends and forthcoming.
Obviously he's still the champion trainer, and has a strong chance of doing so again this season. But I honestly feel it will be the last time he is champion trainer and in three or four years time he'll 'just another' trainer... coincidentally, playing second fiddle to the likes of Harry Fry and Dan Skelton.
Not a mention of any Gold Cup horse... because he no longer has any. Silviniaco Conti is a million to one for me if he takes his chance in the World Hurdle, and his other entries are hardly worth mentioning either.
So that leaves Dodging Bullets, about a 10/1 shot for the Champion Chase.
And that's it.
He has no established horses who are strong favs for any races at the Festival. He has no Novices who would get within 20 lengths of the Mullins horses. And if he's talking about Dodging Bullets, Silviniaco Conti, and Saphir Du Rheu as his 'stars' then he's will up the creek without a paddle.
It's all becoming clear now, why Dan Skelton went off on his own, why Ruby Walsh give up his role as stable jockey (he could easily have had both jobs, just like he used to), why the best jockey he get now as his stable jockey is STD.
Loads of rumours were flying around that while he was at the very top and had the likes of Denman, Kauto, Big Bucks, Master Minded etc, that he got way too big for his boots and become a very arrogant man. He lost a lot of friends, and now that he needs some more good horses, those friends and forthcoming.
Obviously he's still the champion trainer, and has a strong chance of doing so again this season. But I honestly feel it will be the last time he is champion trainer and in three or four years time he'll 'just another' trainer... coincidentally, playing second fiddle to the likes of Harry Fry and Dan Skelton.
Show More
It is like finding money in the street.
How on earth was that not favourite ?????
How on earth was that not favourite ?????
Horse that has campaigned at the highest level constantly v a horse that won at uttoxeter. 
Amazing another great days racing for the "finished" one. Nearly always fitter than the competition and ready, thankfully because some suckers subscribe to this cr@p, horses very bankable at prices.
and the first one I back today, falls at the last
He is going downhill fast.
Maybe he can get away with a 5 timer.
Maybe he can get away with a 5 timer.
Has a couple of nice types running at the Abbot tomorrow 
Has to be the best card Newton Abbott have ever had.
his winners aren't just winning, they're absolutely hacking up.
Agreed. Perfect going and decent prize money on offer.
Also willing to run horses on good ground in contrast to most of the others. The jumping of most of the Nicholls runners over the 2 days has been poetry in motion. Tizzard still struggling to get going.
Paul's not taking any prisoners this season!
The death of Mont Des Avaloirs didn’t make it the great day that everybody is crowing about.
Having Cobden on board all these good horses isnt helping, but his horses are fit thats for sure. How Cobden got Enrillo beat yesterday was staggering, tried to be clever instead of going 15 clear on the bridle and paid the price.
The second eleven had been running up to Oct 9. Now we have the first team appearing. Not so sure about Glajou though.
ran a smashing race, must've been trading about 1.1 ish. he's got this lot super fit, i keep telling you's.
yes it did hulk. His horses are in terrific form. I am opposing him in the Novicec chase tho so hope he doesn't win that one!
I didn't think we would see Master Tommytucker over fences again. The horse took a terrible fall last time, looked clueless,and was lucky to not injure itself. I hope it has been well schooled for its comeback or I would think questions will be asked.
Can't see Tommytucker at evens or less. The opposition are decent horses. I have a small bet on Eldorado Allen despite the awful form of the Tizzard yard lately. He looked like a Champion hurdle horse before getting injured.
Al Dancer is a decent horse so if they can sort out the jumping, Tommy could still be winning something.
That was a sweet win for Sam Being jocked off TT must have been the final straw for the lad.
Being jocked off TT must have been the final straw for the lad.
So only one win and 3 seconds for Nicholls today. Still not a bad day at the office.
Top trainer with the most prize money, but will play a distant 3rd fiddle behind Mr Mullins and Mr Elliot in total prize money earned.
its not Nicholls in decline its just that the others couldnt train a fkn dog to sit.
He might as well retire.
Anyone else have a nicholls 5 timer on their hands
Anyone else have a nicholls 5 timer on their hands
Did Nicholls win at the recent Cheltenham? Nicholls is to UK NH horseracing what Celtic/Rangers to Scottish football; against Premier League (Mullins/Elliot/De Bromhead) Nicholls is an over-ran.
You mean the Paul Nicholls who's trained 13 more Festival winners than Elliott and 28 more than de Bromhead?
You mean the Paul Nicholls who's trained 13 more Festival winners than Elliott and 28 more than de Bromhead?
So he cleans up a few poorly contested races on the final day on quick ground, and suddenly he's brilliant trainer again? Similar to Hughes, the trainer's title is a priority for him, it isn't for anyone else.
Sorry, this is a genuine question: Did Nicholls train a winner at the recent Cheltenham Festival? I heard he withdrew a few of his as he was not happy with the watering prior to the going changed.
PN doesn't run his season around the Cheltenham festival, or have clients who all they care about is having runners and winners at the Cheltenham festival.
It's self fulfilling isn't it.
I don't have an opinion on whether that strategy is right or wrong, but if you as an owner want a horse trained in England, to maximise the big race wins and prizemoney over its career, and career longevity, then PN remains close to being first choice. If all you cared about was a festival winner, you'd go to Hendo.
It's self fulfilling isn't it.
I don't have an opinion on whether that strategy is right or wrong, but if you as an owner want a horse trained in England, to maximise the big race wins and prizemoney over its career, and career longevity, then PN remains close to being first choice. If all you cared about was a festival winner, you'd go to Hendo.
The biggest spending owners predominately want Cheltenham festival runners and winners.
That's how the jumps game has evolved over my time following it, and why the power has shifted to Ireland. Most Irish trainers would forfeit an entire season if it meant arriving at Cheltenham with a chance, and the big spending owners are perfectly comfortable with that strategy. And Mullins has got the firepower to leave a horse in its box for a year if it has got a handy mark. No way in the world PN would do that.
That's how the jumps game has evolved over my time following it, and why the power has shifted to Ireland. Most Irish trainers would forfeit an entire season if it meant arriving at Cheltenham with a chance, and the big spending owners are perfectly comfortable with that strategy. And Mullins has got the firepower to leave a horse in its box for a year if it has got a handy mark. No way in the world PN would do that.
Or, he simply doesn't have the fire power to win at the Cheltenham Festival, so he hasn't got much choice but to take what's on offer through the season.
That's my point though, the big spending owners aren't going to PN as all they want is Cheltenham winners.
BMG being pulled out is indicative of that. It may well not have won anyway, but that's not the point.
I don't think it's fair to say other trainers don't care about being champion. Hendo loves to win it, and Skelton is desperate to.
Impossible, no, he didn't. Nor is 28 races a meaningful sample size. I wouldn't judge any trainer, jockey or punter on how they did at a single festival.
Impossible, no, he didn't. Nor is 28 races a meaningful sample size. I wouldn't judge any trainer, jockey or punter on how they did at a single festival.
I think the point is that Ncholl's can be both in decline and still winning trainers championships over here.
Is he in decline in the round, absolutely IMO.
Is he in decline in the round, absolutely IMO.
List his top 20 horses and then list them from 5 and then 10 years ago and compare.
If Mullins decided to have a go over here he'd win the championship on the snaff with his second string.
If Mullins decided to have a go over here he'd win the championship on the snaff with his second string.
If this is your high tide mark, you'll always be 'in decline'. In regard to superstar quality, anyway.
I understand Ireland offers big tax breaks to owners which is why JPM and MO'L put so much money into it. If they gave their money to Nicholls he'd clean up at the festival.
Probably true and it's why the question "is he in decline" mightn't be fair on him because it can be true but not from his own ability diminishing but rather from the quality not being given to him in the first place which is what is happening.
to be fair to pumpkin did well yesterday in 5 interviews used the words,good ground,fresh,sunshine blah,blah and failed to mention the only race irish were represented he was nowhere
If it was just about tax breaks why has JP had a string of Grade 1 horses with Henderson? In the last couple of years Nicholls has taken on the Sullivan and Brooks horses that were moved, but it would be stretching the imagination to think he had done well with them. He couldn't win a race with Stormy Ireland, but two runs later she was winning a Grade 1 for Willie Mullins. Although he has a large number of french breds, he has also had expensive Irish pointers, the likes of Give Me A Copper (270,000) and Trevelyn's Corn (400,000).
If you are champion trainer year after year, you will never get the credit you deserve. He can't have Kauto Star, Denman, Big Bucks and Master Minded every year. At least he runs his horses which some of his rivals don't.
When he had those stars they were not running every week. They were running in the races that any other high profile trainer would have selected. Denham was the only one to take in a couple of handicaps.
He now has poorer horses so if he wants to keep targeting championships he needs to run them more often.
He now has poorer horses so if he wants to keep targeting championships he needs to run them more often.
According to the Sporting Life website, he's had a 20%+ strike rate every season for the last 27 years. This seaon, he ended up with a shade under £3 million in prize money and won the chanpionship by half a million.
I also looked at his G1 wins lately - he won 6 in GB this season and 2 in Ireland, which seems OK, if not mindblowing.
I also looked at his G1 wins lately - he won 6 in GB this season and 2 in Ireland, which seems OK, if not mindblowing.
Anyone know reasons why Cobden pulled mcfabulous up
And we're stewards involved
And we're stewards involved
I too would like to know about Mcfabulous, hope the horse is still around.
Around. It ran yester
Was pulled up on flat for no reason in a chase
Was pulled up on flat for no reason in a chase
The way the camera zoomed away quickly from him i thought he went wrong ?
Don't think so. Cobden was pulled in
To give excuses.
To give excuses.
They seem to all be coming to peak fitness in the last week. Even the first at Sandown won. Anyone willing to bet against his other 4 runners?
This is getting silly. Not just winning but laughing at them.
And Solo wins hardheld. What an incredible run Paul is on. Horses look fit as fk!
made all, increased tempo from 2 out, bounded clear from last, easily
I don't think that Matterhorn will run on heavy again. Colonel Harry was the obvious one on his second to Mofasa who won at Cheltenham next time. Mofasa is a very good horse.
The time to resurrect this thread is when he starts cleaning up at the Festivals. How many runners did he have last season, let alone winners? He usually starts strongly by having his horses fitter than everyone else and adopting tactics to make the most of that advantage.
Matterhorn just emphasises that not everything goes to plan. This was supposedly a Triumph Hurdle horse which he kept quiet about and it didn't run. That return clearly wasn't the plan and who knows what will happen next with the horse. He looked a handful to say the least.
Colonel Harry was made to look very slow by Mofasa who barely had to come off the bridle to beat him. Given that he was awash with sweat and still won easily I suspect today's race wasn't that competitive.
Matterhorn just emphasises that not everything goes to plan. This was supposedly a Triumph Hurdle horse which he kept quiet about and it didn't run. That return clearly wasn't the plan and who knows what will happen next with the horse. He looked a handful to say the least.
Colonel Harry was made to look very slow by Mofasa who barely had to come off the bridle to beat him. Given that he was awash with sweat and still won easily I suspect today's race wasn't that competitive.
Next 2 Nicholls horses withdrawn It must be desperate ground now. Does He Know is my choice in the 3 mile chase. Fell at the first recently but had a racecourse gallop
If it is on of course. Nice pair of Egyptian Geese enjoying a puddle.
If it is on of course. Nice pair of Egyptian Geese enjoying a puddle.
Me too, he gets far too much stick against the Irish mafia.
Thyme White would had been at least 2nd yesterday but for his useless jock.
Thyme White would had been at least 2nd yesterday but for his useless jock.
Nicholls still £600k ahead of Skelton and a £million in front of Henderson. Only winning the Gold Cup and the National by one of those 2 is likely to stop him being Champion again and he has more promising youngsters this year than for many. How many good novices has Henderson found since Constitution Hill and Jonbon? And Bravemansgame is going to be first or second tomorrow
Should imagine that's exactly what connections want to see to inspire confidence , slagging off on a gambling forum.
Always seems to work especially for jockeys
Always seems to work especially for jockeys
Ireland is the premiership of horseracing; UK is equivalent to Scotland footie.
Place only at 5 Hitman. Easy money but could not see him winning. Paid for my stake on Shishkin who had clogs on again. One race a year seems to be his limit. Perhaps they should have run him in the GC but not if he jumped like that.
So dont you like backing at 30 & trading out at 3 sage ? ;)
I did consider it Ibra but went for the place instead. He manages to finish second against horses a stone inferior so how could he win? Well done though if you greened out for a nice profit.
Fair enough but he has been on an upward curve until pumpkin wanted him to be a 3 miler, he still hasnt finished improving over 2m4f imho.
You could be right. A lot of Paul's horses that start racing at 4 go backwards for a couple of years.
I don't get this? After 3 days Nicholls is 10% winning strike rate and 30% for placed. Mullins is 8% win and 25% placed.
Same every year denman. People notice the wins and perhaps places but conveniently forget the losers. Mullins has about 90 super expensive horses over 4 days so 4 wins so far is a disaster. If he wins the Gold Cup he will be hailed as the best ever again. Paul Nicholls makes no secret of his policy of hoovering up as much prize money as he can at other meetings and only runs horses with a chance. When it comes to novices though, Ireland are in a different class so the future does not look bright for GB trainers. Apart from Constitution Hill, I can't see what Henderson has to look forward to.
I remember them saying the same on here about Henry Cecil.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539