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bilbobaggins
05 Dec 15 20:18
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Date Joined: 06 Jul 01
| Topic/replies: 11,046 | Blogger: bilbobaggins's blog
Yet another overrated jock.
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Report carrot1960 December 5, 2015 8:54 PM GMT
F00ked that up good and proper
Report thegiggilo December 6, 2015 12:48 AM GMT
Not over rated still learning, although been some very poor rides lately lots of misjudgement of pace very conspicuous rides some of them as well...
Report EVILROYSLADE December 6, 2015 7:15 AM GMT
I dont think he is overrated. I think he is doing his job extremely well. What THAT job constitutes is another matter. Winning isn't everything, if you get my drift.........WinkDevil
Report therobster27 December 6, 2015 7:58 AM GMT
The mere fact that he is 2nd jockey for Qatar racing, as well as getting interest from Godolphin is testament to this young lads ability. Of course he will make mistakes, as he did with Tempuran(about 3 furlongs out) in an earlier contest on last night's Wolverhampton card, I'm sure he will think if he could ride the race again he would win it. However getting stick for a ride on an unraced 2yrold is beggars belief. The horse(Town History) never broke, the pace of the race was a crawl, and the two who finished in front of him that already had racing experience where always handy and had the run of the race throughout, which could prove to be a well above average maiden for the track.

I for one rarely back in maiden company, no matter how loud the dog's are barking about the prospects of any given animal. An extremely high percentage of horses that run in these type of contests do not have the ability to win them, many others not yet having enough mental ability to take the process of what is required in, after all they are just baby's who are still learning to race. Town History ran extremely green inside the final couple of furlongs, when Oisin Murphy gave him a little tap to quicken he hung away from it, his jockey almost having to punch him out to the line exclusively riding with his right rein. I'm fairly certain given the circumstances connections will be delighted with that introduction, obviously anyone that's backed him won't, but at least the horse will go on from this and could make up into a nice horse, if he does last nights ride would be seen as a major contribution.
Report crepello December 6, 2015 7:32 PM GMT
I like him but whichever way you look at it he had a disappointing night at Wolves on Saturday - besides the two horses mentioned above he was also outridden by Queally (not many jockeys can say that!!) when riding Ballynanty in the 8.45pm - he certainly should have won on that animal ...

No bets for me at Wolves so not pocket talking - just observations ....
Report doantwin2easy December 6, 2015 8:44 PM GMT
Not over rated still learning, although been some very poor rides lately lots of misjudgement of pace very conspicuous rides some of them as well...

i thought you said jockeys didn't matter. can't have it both ways.
Report thegiggilo December 6, 2015 9:14 PM GMT
What are you on about,whats that comment got to do with wether jockeys matter or not the fact he's rode some poor rides like every single jockey will do through the season just like 99.9% of them will have suspect rides.The opnly particular thing that relates to jockeys maybe being important would be for example older handicappers that have slipped to a decent mark with a certain jockey riding with standout record on it.All that matters are the prices,jockeys in general are completely irrelevant to making money..
Report doantwin2easy December 6, 2015 9:57 PM GMT
you said jockeys didn't matter which is complete bs.

so to play devils advocate, you'd be happy if every one of your backs is ridden by ann stokell throughout the course of a season as long as the price is right? Because that is effectively what you're saying.

there's a whole host of reasons why jockeys are important.

if you haven't worked those out, I can't help you.
Report thegiggilo December 6, 2015 10:47 PM GMT
I think the profit I make on a yearly basis is the defining point and done so for 15 years,the competency of jocks is so much higher now that they make very little difference to influence my betting and shouldn't make any difference to anyone elses.Taking jockeys into account is more likely to lose you money than win it,if you're trying to put them into certain categories/Divisions it's absolute nonsense..
Report ima_mazed66 December 6, 2015 11:16 PM GMT
He's not overrated in my view and is decent and if we are talking the defeat on the 4/6f, I can't really see that he has done much wrong there. Badly drawn out wide so means using his first time running horse up early to get a position, or dropping it in and then risk having to go out wide to get a run. He ended up doing the latter and the horse was lugging in too which also didn't help.

I'm not sure that Godolphin being owned by a multi-billionaire need their jockeys to be riding to get beaten either. Why would that be, to get in on a good handicap mark to set up a gamble for a bloke worth a fortune or maybe just so as he can lay one on here?

Seems highly unlikely don't you think?
Report doantwin2easy December 6, 2015 11:51 PM GMT
Thegig, i've been at it quite a bit longer if that helps at all. Never heard such rubbish. The differential between good and poor has never been greater.

If your conscious mind denies it, perhaps your subconscious one would admit that you take the jockey into account before placing your hard earned.

You've just talked about conspicuous rides, so presumably you realise that there are trends where certain jocks tend to have more conspicuous rides than others? Or where inexperience is a factor. Even if that means a 7lb claimer versus the best jockey in the world.

To say that this doesn't influence your bets day to day, regardless of the subsequent spread of jockeys on your betting slip in the long term is nonsense.

You made a sweeping statement, and you have done it again tonight, without actually thinking about what it means.
Report thegiggilo December 7, 2015 1:23 AM GMT
I'm telling you over the past 5 seasons that the conclusion I came to I was throwing value away by overestimating jocks and I was having far to few a bets,i've probably increased my betting 3 fold and this will be my biggest winning year by almost 2 1/2 times,taking into account I've cleared 6 figures for those 15 previous years.
The differential is not greater than it was before I think standards are improving whereas claimers would've been disregarded 10-15 years ago they are now seen as more of a positive as they are simply better riders than the claimers were over 10-15 years ago.As for non triers,i've mentioned this numerous times the chances of backing a horse that isn't trying is pretty rare and over a season of 2000 bets it's going to make virtually no difference to me and anyone who thinks they are consistently backing non triers are deluded..
Report ima_mazed66 December 7, 2015 1:43 AM GMT
I've watch the rides on Tempuran and Ballynanty again and think some of the criticism is a little bit harsh really.

The gap was there off the final bend on Tempuran and the horse either couldn't on wouldn't go through it before needing to be switched, but it did look like the jockey on the 3rd hit Tempuran over the head with his whip, and Ballynanty was stepping up in trip going the extra 2f for the first time and so was ridden to get it, which involves the usual problems there of hoping for gaps to appear late on or going widest of all to get a run.

Ironically when Queally held his racing line to hold Murphy in, if he had barged his way out like Atzeni did on the same owner's runner in the Leger then he probably would have won, yet he's been punished for not breaking the rules where Atzeni was rewarded for doing so.
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