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23 Nov 15
11:41
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07 Jun 01
Yes Nicky Henderson thinks his puppy Vaniteux will make a great chaser and he may well be right, he's been saying this for a while now.
So no surprise if the favourite wins this race, it's a tricky race mind you and I'm not betting on it personally.
SO WHAT'S THE DIRTY SECRET?
Well all the racing pundits are saying that the Henderson's puppy had the best hurdles form, this is true if you look at the official BHA ratings.
There's either a conspiracy going on (unlikely), or they didn't spot something (more likely) which I did this morning which will make your head spin.
Strictly on the official BHA ratings, Vaniteux was a much better hurdler than Stephanie Frances being rated in the 150's and Stephanie Frances rated at 138 before going chasing.
However this will blow your mind... when studying the form carefully, I noticed they've both raced the classy hurdler The New One at around the same distance over hurdles, and Stephanie Frances comes out on top using a thread through The New One as opposed to using the official BHA ratings.
HURDLES FORM LINE THROUGH THE NEW ONE:
18/10/15
Stephanie Frances getting 7lb from The New One was beaten 2 lengths
13/12/14
Vaniteux getting 8lb from The New One was beaten 4.5 lengths
Stephanie Frances is in receipt of 7lb from Vaniteux today
Over the jumps, the general rule is that 1lb equates to 1 length so The New One had 9lbs over Stephanie Frances (7 plus 2).
The New One had 12.5lbs in hand over Vaniteux. So this gives Stephanie Frances a 3.5lbs edge based on their runs against The New One over hurdles.
Stephanie Frances is in receipt of 7lbs today from Vaniteux so if you add the two together you get 10.5lbs (7lbs+3.5lbs), and has a ridiculous 3/4 of a stone in hand going through the slick thread through The New One (over hurdles this is).
If you go on their official BHA ratings the favourite was rated 151 v 138 (Stephanie Frances) on their last hurdles outings. 151 minus 138 equals 13, Stephanie Frances receives 7lbs from the favourite so the favourite has 6lbs in hand (if this was a hurdles race).
This is not a hurdles race of course, but if you use their performances against The New One the classy hurdler, they were run at similar distances and Stephanie Frances would have 3/4 of a stone in hand if this was a hurdles race and if you took their form lines through The New One literally.
The favourite may be much better over the fences of course, but Stephanie Frances ran well on her debut chase race until clipping the heels of the puppy in front of her. Jumped well, travelled well up until that point. There are other horses in the race such as Qewy who certainly have a chance, but I just mention these two horses as they are part of the amazing discovery I made this morning.
When I found out that Stephanie Frances would have 3/4 of a stone in hand on the odds on favourite if you go through their races against The New One, I almost choked on my Rice Krispies.
If the race does come down to these two at the business end, what I'm saying is don't be surprised if Stephanie Frances gives a real fright to Vaniteux or even beats him.
And don't forget, that she was unlucky last time, Stephanie Frances clipped the heels of another horse in between fences while travelling and jumping perfectly well. She may be out for revenge today.
"Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"
I don't think anything can be seriously backed with confidence in this race, I just wanted to reveal the disturbing secret for anyone thinking of betting on this race.
Henderson's puppy may well win, but if I found an odds on shot that had raced against the same horse as an one of the opposition previously and it would need to find 3/4 of a stone to win if taken literally, I'd personally avoid the odds on horse.
Yes I know this is a chase race, but it takes a lot of faith to expect a 3/4 stone turnaround.
The trainer says his horse Vaniteux is going to be a great chaser, and good for him if his odds on shot wins.
No male wants to be beaten by a female when running, human or horse.
Once I was going for a jog at my local park when I used to exercise and I could hear another jogger running just behind me, I took a quick look and it was a lady jogger... so I ran faster to show her who's boss but she sprinted past me 30 seconds later. I slowed down to a stop as soon as she went past me and pretended to be taking a phone call on my mobile, to make it look like she only overtook me because I slowed down to take a call.
But remember that horse racing doesn't work like this, if a mare overtakes a male horse, colt or whatever they're called and gets past the finishing line first there's nowhere for the horse (or its backers) to hide.
This is why you've got to admire horses, Vaniteux is a brave puppy.
I'm all for equal rights however across all species, I believe mares should be paid the same amount as male horses (are they called colts, I'm not sure) if they win. To be honest I don't know, I've not compared the prize money between mare races and male horse races.
I couldn't care less which horse wins as it's too tricky so no bet in this race from me, I just wanted to reveal the secret link between the front two in the market and after the race I'll know if this is true or not...
"Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"
If Stephanie Frances wins it's true, if she doesn't it's obviously a load of nonsense.
So no surprise if the favourite wins this race, it's a tricky race mind you and I'm not betting on it personally.
SO WHAT'S THE DIRTY SECRET?
Well all the racing pundits are saying that the Henderson's puppy had the best hurdles form, this is true if you look at the official BHA ratings.
There's either a conspiracy going on (unlikely), or they didn't spot something (more likely) which I did this morning which will make your head spin.
Strictly on the official BHA ratings, Vaniteux was a much better hurdler than Stephanie Frances being rated in the 150's and Stephanie Frances rated at 138 before going chasing.
However this will blow your mind... when studying the form carefully, I noticed they've both raced the classy hurdler The New One at around the same distance over hurdles, and Stephanie Frances comes out on top using a thread through The New One as opposed to using the official BHA ratings.
HURDLES FORM LINE THROUGH THE NEW ONE:
18/10/15
Stephanie Frances getting 7lb from The New One was beaten 2 lengths
13/12/14
Vaniteux getting 8lb from The New One was beaten 4.5 lengths
Stephanie Frances is in receipt of 7lb from Vaniteux today
Over the jumps, the general rule is that 1lb equates to 1 length so The New One had 9lbs over Stephanie Frances (7 plus 2).
The New One had 12.5lbs in hand over Vaniteux. So this gives Stephanie Frances a 3.5lbs edge based on their runs against The New One over hurdles.
Stephanie Frances is in receipt of 7lbs today from Vaniteux so if you add the two together you get 10.5lbs (7lbs+3.5lbs), and has a ridiculous 3/4 of a stone in hand going through the slick thread through The New One (over hurdles this is).
If you go on their official BHA ratings the favourite was rated 151 v 138 (Stephanie Frances) on their last hurdles outings. 151 minus 138 equals 13, Stephanie Frances receives 7lbs from the favourite so the favourite has 6lbs in hand (if this was a hurdles race).
This is not a hurdles race of course, but if you use their performances against The New One the classy hurdler, they were run at similar distances and Stephanie Frances would have 3/4 of a stone in hand if this was a hurdles race and if you took their form lines through The New One literally.
The favourite may be much better over the fences of course, but Stephanie Frances ran well on her debut chase race until clipping the heels of the puppy in front of her. Jumped well, travelled well up until that point. There are other horses in the race such as Qewy who certainly have a chance, but I just mention these two horses as they are part of the amazing discovery I made this morning.
When I found out that Stephanie Frances would have 3/4 of a stone in hand on the odds on favourite if you go through their races against The New One, I almost choked on my Rice Krispies.
If the race does come down to these two at the business end, what I'm saying is don't be surprised if Stephanie Frances gives a real fright to Vaniteux or even beats him.
And don't forget, that she was unlucky last time, Stephanie Frances clipped the heels of another horse in between fences while travelling and jumping perfectly well. She may be out for revenge today.
"Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"
I don't think anything can be seriously backed with confidence in this race, I just wanted to reveal the disturbing secret for anyone thinking of betting on this race.
Henderson's puppy may well win, but if I found an odds on shot that had raced against the same horse as an one of the opposition previously and it would need to find 3/4 of a stone to win if taken literally, I'd personally avoid the odds on horse.
Yes I know this is a chase race, but it takes a lot of faith to expect a 3/4 stone turnaround.
The trainer says his horse Vaniteux is going to be a great chaser, and good for him if his odds on shot wins.
No male wants to be beaten by a female when running, human or horse.
Once I was going for a jog at my local park when I used to exercise and I could hear another jogger running just behind me, I took a quick look and it was a lady jogger... so I ran faster to show her who's boss but she sprinted past me 30 seconds later. I slowed down to a stop as soon as she went past me and pretended to be taking a phone call on my mobile, to make it look like she only overtook me because I slowed down to take a call.
But remember that horse racing doesn't work like this, if a mare overtakes a male horse, colt or whatever they're called and gets past the finishing line first there's nowhere for the horse (or its backers) to hide.
This is why you've got to admire horses, Vaniteux is a brave puppy.
I'm all for equal rights however across all species, I believe mares should be paid the same amount as male horses (are they called colts, I'm not sure) if they win. To be honest I don't know, I've not compared the prize money between mare races and male horse races.
I couldn't care less which horse wins as it's too tricky so no bet in this race from me, I just wanted to reveal the secret link between the front two in the market and after the race I'll know if this is true or not...
"Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned"
If Stephanie Frances wins it's true, if she doesn't it's obviously a load of nonsense.
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Replies: 14
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r u fcuking sane
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Not sure you mentioned its size?
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ROMPED HOME
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Did you folks watch the actual race?
I proved to be spot on and I'm a total genius as always, the favourite was ridden to kick on round the bend and pinched a 3-4 lengths lead on Stephanie Frances who was then nudged along to keep tabs (the jockey was caught out a little), however the favourite was NOT able to shake her off or pull away. At three out the favourite was STILL only 3-4 lengths ahead and Stephanie Frances was clearly a serious threat, and had almost come back onto the bridle. The female puppy was ready to pounce. Please watch the video replay on 365 for free (just go to the results section at the bottom) and you'll agree with me. Even the commentator after the race said that Stephanie Frances was being "nudged along gently" when she fell three out, 3-4 lengths is nothing when 3 out over fences and the rider of Stephanie Frances looked pretty confident of winning and was enjoying riding her before she fell. Vaniteux was being hard ridden in front if you watch the replay carefully just to maintain his advantage, only after the favourite's jockey looked back and saw that she'd fallen he relaxed, he was clearly relieved as he knew that he had a real race on his hands. It's impossible to know what would have happened if Stephanie Frances hadn't fallen, but her potent turn of foot and the weight she was receiving could have closed the minor 3-4 lengths in my opinion. The favourite may still have won of course, but it would have had to have been hard ridden all the way to the finish to stop Stephanie Frances from accelerating past and it would've likely been a 1-3 lengths win at best, at worst Stephanie Frances would've swept past and won. It's a pity she fell, I'd have loved to have seen the jockey ride her hard had she not fallen... her turn of foot would've kicked in and made it very interesting... we were robbed of an exciting finish. Instead the jockey on the favourite was able to show off after she fell, as he was left well clear and had no other serious challengers. Yes well done Nicole you lucky boy, you were about to wet yourself until Stephanie Frances fell weren't you? Lady luck was on your side, and instead you got to go into the winners' enclosure with a smug smile on your face, get praised by the trainer instead of getting a good telling off, and you got to use the gents instead of doing it during the race. Vaniteux may well turn out to be a high class chaser, but still has something to prove as he was gifted this race. The race was far too tricky which is why I didn't bet on it, anyone who backed the favourite... well done but you were let off the hook by Stephanie Frances falling... you weren't made to sweat so count your lucky stars. Should they meet again it'll be interesting if Stephanie Frances can stop behaving like drunk girl at a nightclub, clipping heels and falling last time out, falling over when in contention this time... stop trying to impress the male horses Stephanie and have some self respect next time. You're a horse and you're supposed to be professional, you can roll around in the stable in your spare time when not racing or training but learn to work hard, play hard. I wrote such a long post on you on here saying you were up there with the favourite man horse (colt) and could possibly beat him, you've made me feel like someone who introduces their new classy girlfriend to their friends/family and then she does something embarrassing like a huge fart. Not funny. |
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Your race reading skills are nil!
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His race writing skills are Tolsyoyesque.
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toy story
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Your race reading skills are nil!
Are you Nicole's partner or related to him? Did you see him look behind him after Stephanie Frances fell, he looked like a guy who'd just heard a "not guilty" verdict in court despite there being strong evidence against him. There was strong evidence that Nicky Henderson's hyped up puppy was not the impressive puppy that he'd promised. Lucky puppy, lucky trainer and lucky Nicole. Time will tell whether his puppy really is the high class chaser he claims, but Nicky Henderson does occasionally hype up the chances of his horses (as do most trainers, to be fair). Like his bullish comments in the following race on his other puppy Polly Peachum, she got beaten and all the punters who listened to him got burned. Polly Peachum was also in front but got worn down towards the finish which proves my point, with Vaniteux the horse who was about to pounce in a similar fashion fell. Not bad for racing however as I wouldn't have wanted Nicky Henderson to leave the racing scene, if Vaniteux and Polly Peachum both lost he would've gone into a cave totally mortified, and would have never been seen again. |
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WALOFS
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whats the going broadmore
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You my little puppy anotheronebitesthedust need to stop off the Rastafarian old hoban
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Stop posting on this thread please as it needs to die, Stephanie Frances fell so we'll never know what would've happened if she'd stayed up.
I believe she would've given the favourite a tough battle but I'm biased because I spent hours studying this race and I'm rarely wrong. But I should be thanked and praised for all the time and effort put into my detailed analysis. I only like seeing posts which are compliments after the races I start threads on, "well done", "you're the man", "fantastic winner", "spot on analysis" and that sort of thing. I expect the same of everyone... If I spend time driving to McDonald's to get my wife a meal, I don't expect any smart-ass comments from her when I return or I'll treat her like dirt for 2-3 weeks for being ungrateful. Even if a few fries fell out by mistake or I got her the wrong sauce by mistake, I'd still expect her to thank me for the effort and time involved. If she behaves and says thank you which she usually does, then I happily go and get her another meal from McDonald's whenever she's hungry again. Manners... I practice what I preach... if my wife spends two hours putting make up on so she looks acceptable, I thank her before we go somewhere special and we have a great time instead of me being embarrassed by her. |
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Be honest, there is no wife is there?
I wish you were right, I'm planning to divorce mine next year to be honest. Because she isn't as attractive as before. I'm studying a few relationship books I ordered off Amazon to see if it's possible to not divorce my wife because I do love her. I think cheating is wrong and always have, but nature will force me into it without a resolution as many other women are hotter and I'm far more attracted to them. Currently going through Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus and a few other self help books from relationship experts. |
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she isn't as attractive as before
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