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15 Nov 15
22:10
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04 Jun 12
Arctic Fire was put to 169 to justify this, a horse who is lucky to be 3 from 14 over hurdles, a maiden, a 12k novice and scraping home in a G2 recently against a 148 horse
both of these horses ratings appear to be a complete joke, the Champion Hurdle was a falsely run race, Jezki and The New One both ran somewhere between 10-14 pounds below the previous years race which was a championship gallop, Kitten Rock 156 a length behind them confirms this
the 169 rated Arctic Fire was beaten by Little King Robin, Irving and an 11yo Hurricane Fly that season, yet we are to believe he suddenly ran to 169 in a falsely run race no less? his 157rating pre cheltenham seems infinitely more likely to be accurate and checks out with his last run against Monksland and his run behind Faugheen at Punchestown
With that in mind, Faugheens rating has to be seriously looked at, I would argue he ran to about 163-5 in the Champion Hurdle last season, impossible to rate him higher than that, which means he was probably only 5-6 pounds below his best today
Dell Arca was 3rd in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and he beat 2 handicappers in the Kempton G1
anyone backing this horse at under 2/1 just now for this seasons Champion needs locked up for their own safety, the horse has been seriously overrated because of his bridle ratio which was exposed today
Arctic Fire needs to get back down to 155-157 pronto because he never a 169 horse in a million years
You are guaranteed a gallop in the Champion this year so Faugheen will probably be exposed again
both of these horses ratings appear to be a complete joke, the Champion Hurdle was a falsely run race, Jezki and The New One both ran somewhere between 10-14 pounds below the previous years race which was a championship gallop, Kitten Rock 156 a length behind them confirms this
the 169 rated Arctic Fire was beaten by Little King Robin, Irving and an 11yo Hurricane Fly that season, yet we are to believe he suddenly ran to 169 in a falsely run race no less? his 157rating pre cheltenham seems infinitely more likely to be accurate and checks out with his last run against Monksland and his run behind Faugheen at Punchestown
With that in mind, Faugheens rating has to be seriously looked at, I would argue he ran to about 163-5 in the Champion Hurdle last season, impossible to rate him higher than that, which means he was probably only 5-6 pounds below his best today
Dell Arca was 3rd in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and he beat 2 handicappers in the Kempton G1
anyone backing this horse at under 2/1 just now for this seasons Champion needs locked up for their own safety, the horse has been seriously overrated because of his bridle ratio which was exposed today
Arctic Fire needs to get back down to 155-157 pronto because he never a 169 horse in a million years
You are guaranteed a gallop in the Champion this year so Faugheen will probably be exposed again
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The New One and MTOY at 20s are more appealing to me.
I wouldn't back anything ante post at a single figure price, its hard enough getting them to turn up.
Last year was such a let down, lets see a Championship pace and it will be interesting.
I wouldn't back anything ante post at a single figure price, its hard enough getting them to turn up.
Last year was such a let down, lets see a Championship pace and it will be interesting.
to show just how soft a lead Faugheen was given ive recorded a side by side
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqmXkoM2DdM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqmXkoM2DdM
Faugheen has great tactical speed and last years race was given to him on a plate, his jumping was never put under pressure like it would have been the previous year and after yesterday, youd have to wonder how much of a kick he actually has at the end of a championship race, he really does most of his work on the bridle
then tell us how much did you lay it if it should be 200/1
Have a look back at the Aintree hurdle and the way Arctic Fire and Jezki left 160 horses for dead and his rating is spot on
these are the questions
did Faugheen run over a stone below his best?
are Wicklow Brave and Nichols Canyon now suddenly 170 horses?
the reality is these questions are only being asked because the false ratings from the Champion Hurdle, none of the evidence before and after supports the ratings
Faugheen ran about 5-6 pounds below his best, in keeping with the ratings of Nichols Canyon and Wicklow Brave, and perfectly acceptable for his first run of the season.
only the false Champion Hurdle ratings are causing the confusion and there will be more confusion until they are rectified
did Faugheen run over a stone below his best?
are Wicklow Brave and Nichols Canyon now suddenly 170 horses?
the reality is these questions are only being asked because the false ratings from the Champion Hurdle, none of the evidence before and after supports the ratings
Faugheen ran about 5-6 pounds below his best, in keeping with the ratings of Nichols Canyon and Wicklow Brave, and perfectly acceptable for his first run of the season.
only the false Champion Hurdle ratings are causing the confusion and there will be more confusion until they are rectified
it really is absurd
Arctic Fire got rated the same as 8 time G1 winner Jezki who won a Champion off a proper Championship gallop. Arctic Fire has won nothing in his career and ran his "169 race" in a 3 furlong sprint.
They will have to keep inflating horses who run close to Arctic Fire and Faugheen or realize that both of them need to be reassessed pronto.
Arctic Fire should be 157-159
Faugheen should be 163-167
Arctic Fire got rated the same as 8 time G1 winner Jezki who won a Champion off a proper Championship gallop. Arctic Fire has won nothing in his career and ran his "169 race" in a 3 furlong sprint.
They will have to keep inflating horses who run close to Arctic Fire and Faugheen or realize that both of them need to be reassessed pronto.
Arctic Fire should be 157-159
Faugheen should be 163-167
Stick a few grand up at 7/4 and get laying it then...
for all i know they could get the same scenario this year, will need to wait and see how the field shapes up
but at this stage you would have to be clueless to be taking under 2/1
but at this stage you would have to be clueless to be taking under 2/1
We heard the same carp last year from the anti Faugheen brigade and they did their dough. We were told that last years Ch Hurdle would be the strongest field for years. If the pace had been stronger last year Faugheen would have won 15 lengths. Magic is correct oneyall put your money up.
If the same `14 pace has been set for this years CH then Faugheen would've won by 10+ lengths, he needs strong run races(he's a 3 miler) against top horses and NC is clearly a very good one but if Ruby had taken the lead earlier he would've left them for dead.
Good thread. Will post some of my musings on the matter.
"The Champion Hurdle was a slowly run farce and they allowed Ruby to dictate on Faugheen too easily. Given how slow they went early, the fractions weren't all that impressive for the last few furlongs either. Douvan came up the hill around the same speed as Faugheen despite going much harder earlier (Faugheen was obviously eased down late on though). Jezki was too keen early and didn't finish off his race well - definitely a poorer performance than last year anyway, The New One wasn't the same horse and Hurricane Fly ran admirably but I'm firmly of the opinion he's only a late 150's/160 animal today. Arctic Fire was the horse to take out of today and given he was poorly positioned and the way he finished his race off, ran up to the same mark as Faugheen IMO. If were putting a mark on them each, I would say they ran to about 168-170."
As you can see, I wasn't impressed by Faugheen at Cheltenham. TNO and Jezki patently underperformed and the best guide to the form was Hurricane Fly who was running to around 160.
That being said, I WAS impressed by Faugheen's performance in the Christmas Hurdle where he set strong fractions, jumped well and just poured it on. Likewise at Punchestown I thought he gave a similar performance in the early to mid 170's.
That being said, I was also impressed by Nichols Canyon at Faugheen, here's their respective sectionals on that day
Nichols Canyon
12.28
36.1 Faugheen
32.11 31.06
18.31 18.88
30.57 31.1
38.9 38.66
13.44 13.19
30.47 29.97
11 11.18
32.78 32.23
13.49 12.52
These were my comments at the time:
Here's the sectionals from today's two big hurdle races. If Nichols Canyon were mine, he'd be dropped down to two miles and ridden aggressively. Has a high cruising speed, jumps well at pace, good turn of foot when needed and stays a bit further. Not dissimilar to Faugheen actually as a type.
Hope Mullins doesn't put the Wylie's going that route as he'd be guaranteed to hit the frame minimum, although as Ruby noted today, they went a good clip for a 2 mile 4 race and he wasn't stopping either. Just think he'd be too keen over 3 miles though if they decide to go down the World Hurdle route and with Jezki and the Fly stepping up combined with some decent sorts like Cole Harden, Whisper, Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby, there's definitely more strength in depth over the stayers division at the moment than down at the minimum trip. Other than Faugheen and Arctic Fire and presumably one or two of Henderson's juveniles who'll stay over the lower obstacles, there's nothing really better than the low 150's at the moment and Nichols Canyon is much better than that.
I think Faugheen is a good horse, even a great horse when the pace is strong as he stays well. But Nichols Canyon has been crying out for this trip given the speed he possesses and I think he was just the better horse yesterday. At Cheltenham, with a true pace this year (hopefully) I think Faugheen will come into his own and probably improve passed NC. At the prices, The New One is the bet though. At his best, he was as good as Faugheen and I sensed instinctively from his last performance that he's back to that. 20/1 worth a punt. Fascinating race as ever.
"The Champion Hurdle was a slowly run farce and they allowed Ruby to dictate on Faugheen too easily. Given how slow they went early, the fractions weren't all that impressive for the last few furlongs either. Douvan came up the hill around the same speed as Faugheen despite going much harder earlier (Faugheen was obviously eased down late on though). Jezki was too keen early and didn't finish off his race well - definitely a poorer performance than last year anyway, The New One wasn't the same horse and Hurricane Fly ran admirably but I'm firmly of the opinion he's only a late 150's/160 animal today. Arctic Fire was the horse to take out of today and given he was poorly positioned and the way he finished his race off, ran up to the same mark as Faugheen IMO. If were putting a mark on them each, I would say they ran to about 168-170."
As you can see, I wasn't impressed by Faugheen at Cheltenham. TNO and Jezki patently underperformed and the best guide to the form was Hurricane Fly who was running to around 160.
That being said, I WAS impressed by Faugheen's performance in the Christmas Hurdle where he set strong fractions, jumped well and just poured it on. Likewise at Punchestown I thought he gave a similar performance in the early to mid 170's.
That being said, I was also impressed by Nichols Canyon at Faugheen, here's their respective sectionals on that day
Nichols Canyon
12.28
36.1 Faugheen
32.11 31.06
18.31 18.88
30.57 31.1
38.9 38.66
13.44 13.19
30.47 29.97
11 11.18
32.78 32.23
13.49 12.52
These were my comments at the time:
Here's the sectionals from today's two big hurdle races. If Nichols Canyon were mine, he'd be dropped down to two miles and ridden aggressively. Has a high cruising speed, jumps well at pace, good turn of foot when needed and stays a bit further. Not dissimilar to Faugheen actually as a type.
Hope Mullins doesn't put the Wylie's going that route as he'd be guaranteed to hit the frame minimum, although as Ruby noted today, they went a good clip for a 2 mile 4 race and he wasn't stopping either. Just think he'd be too keen over 3 miles though if they decide to go down the World Hurdle route and with Jezki and the Fly stepping up combined with some decent sorts like Cole Harden, Whisper, Zarkandar and Rock on Ruby, there's definitely more strength in depth over the stayers division at the moment than down at the minimum trip. Other than Faugheen and Arctic Fire and presumably one or two of Henderson's juveniles who'll stay over the lower obstacles, there's nothing really better than the low 150's at the moment and Nichols Canyon is much better than that.
I think Faugheen is a good horse, even a great horse when the pace is strong as he stays well. But Nichols Canyon has been crying out for this trip given the speed he possesses and I think he was just the better horse yesterday. At Cheltenham, with a true pace this year (hopefully) I think Faugheen will come into his own and probably improve passed NC. At the prices, The New One is the bet though. At his best, he was as good as Faugheen and I sensed instinctively from his last performance that he's back to that. 20/1 worth a punt. Fascinating race as ever.
Agree about The New One 20/1, looks probably the best antepost bet available at the minute, that and Limini 7/1 for the Mares Novice.
Good analysis, ThunderRoad! But I do have to disagree with Nichols Canyon assesment "Not dissimilar to Faugheen actually as a type." "I think he was just the better horse yesterday" Nichols is twice smaller in size than Faugheen and as physics tells us smaller objects accelerate in less time than a big object, which means Ruby needed to go on in front from alot farther than 2 out when Nichols began to run for his life. Tactics won, not the best horse, put another 50 yards and Faugheen passes NC.
As for the CH, if Jezki hadn't gone off so early from the top of the hill I don't think Faugheen would've won. Jezki(McCoy) forced Faugheen to accelerate at the right time to use his turn of foot effectively turning for home and leave them couple of lengths behind. Faugheen is vulnerable against speedy opponents if he doesn't take them out of their comfort zone much earlier than with 2 furlongs left to run. It was helped by Jezki in the CH and last year in the Christmas Hurdle helped by a fast pace set by Blue Heron which made him put his best performance to date.
The betting, if Faugheen is the same horse as last year its the bet of the festival at 15/8. But we won't know if he's the same horse until Boxing day when he'll either shorten again or fail to win which means his ability's gone and stands no value for the CH as WPM won't take him there but for the World Hurdle instead. Not a play for me regardless as we have yet to see some of the 2 mile players.
As for the CH, if Jezki hadn't gone off so early from the top of the hill I don't think Faugheen would've won. Jezki(McCoy) forced Faugheen to accelerate at the right time to use his turn of foot effectively turning for home and leave them couple of lengths behind. Faugheen is vulnerable against speedy opponents if he doesn't take them out of their comfort zone much earlier than with 2 furlongs left to run. It was helped by Jezki in the CH and last year in the Christmas Hurdle helped by a fast pace set by Blue Heron which made him put his best performance to date.
The betting, if Faugheen is the same horse as last year its the bet of the festival at 15/8. But we won't know if he's the same horse until Boxing day when he'll either shorten again or fail to win which means his ability's gone and stands no value for the CH as WPM won't take him there but for the World Hurdle instead. Not a play for me regardless as we have yet to see some of the 2 mile players.
Wicklow Brave and Nichols Canyon are rated too high but Faugheen has plenty of other form to be assessed on that justifies a high figure.
care to say what that plenty of other form is?
one false champion hurdle as far as I can see
one false champion hurdle as far as I can see
And another 4 Grade one wins, including a thrashing of Arctic Fire at Punchestown.
was gifted a 4L lead in that race as well
wicklow brave was just ridden for third in that irish race, totally flattered imo, was a silly price today
Ballyalton, Valseur Lido, Artic Fire and Purple Bay
the horses Faugheen has beat in his "Grade 1s"
Sgt Reckless and Dell Arc were 3rd in two of those
the horses Faugheen has beat in his "Grade 1s"
Sgt Reckless and Dell Arc were 3rd in two of those
The problem with ratings is that want us all to think(or the mainstream public) the sport is just getting better and better, timeform is prime example of this.
If something wins one the championship races at cheltenham it is automatically miles better than a novice.
If something wins one the championship races at cheltenham it is automatically miles better than a novice.
The above is true to a large extent. If you look at the number of horses rated 160+ and 170+ there are far, far more of them then there were 10 or 20 years ago.
Just don't think Faugheen is the best example of an over rated horse.
Just don't think Faugheen is the best example of an over rated horse.
what better example is there?
what in the book suggest Faugheen is a 174 horse?
everything is screaming 165-167
what in the book suggest Faugheen is a 174 horse?
everything is screaming 165-167
Not a BHA rating but the RacingPost figure of 170 on Harry Topper stands out for me as one of the biggest pieces of fiction in the history of the sport.
Indeed, but they need to sell their product.
Harry T is an enigma, not one person on here would ever base one run on bottomless ground against non stayers who are prepping for chelts as a mark.
For Harry Topper i raise you a Aiteen 33.
Harry T is an enigma, not one person on here would ever base one run on bottomless ground against non stayers who are prepping for chelts as a mark.
For Harry Topper i raise you a Aiteen 33.
I think several people on here would actually, but that's not the point!
Another hyped horse, fair shout.
Another hyped horse, fair shout.
@oneyallbeenwaiting4 on what scale does it screams to you 165-167? Did you noticed how Faugheen had put to bed 2 former champions? where are those on your same scale? based on your logic they are higher? :-) A good use of The Machine always comes with invincibility, let the driver use the wrong tactics and you may lose it. The fact that WB was so close to Faugheen will tell those with minimal racing knowledge that the pace in Morgiana was slow early on and the sprint on the run-in gave Faugheen little chance of passing a 5 time G1 winner, especially when his body weighs a ton more than the pattern flat performers WB and NC. Look where WB ended today with a good gallop upfront.
Your whole trepidation(couldn't call it argumentation) about The Machine relies on a first run, in a new season, on a slowly run race, against a multiple G1 novice hurdler. Horses do lose their form in a new season, they don't always improve or stay the same, you do know that? What happened last season is there for all to see, Faugheen beat multiple champions, destroyed all comers and is short favourite to do it all again despite losing his first battle. There's all chances he'll finish the year on a higher rating than 174 if P&C, NC or IT will improve enough or MTOY finds his old form near the 170 mark, and of course beats them decisively.
Your whole trepidation(couldn't call it argumentation) about The Machine relies on a first run, in a new season, on a slowly run race, against a multiple G1 novice hurdler. Horses do lose their form in a new season, they don't always improve or stay the same, you do know that? What happened last season is there for all to see, Faugheen beat multiple champions, destroyed all comers and is short favourite to do it all again despite losing his first battle. There's all chances he'll finish the year on a higher rating than 174 if P&C, NC or IT will improve enough or MTOY finds his old form near the 170 mark, and of course beats them decisively.
Faugheen beat multiple champions
Jezki and TNO were a stone below the previous years race because it was a false pace and TNO was injured
Faugheen has beat no one but 3m chasers and mullins 5th and 6th strings
Jezki and TNO were a stone below the previous years race because it was a false pace and TNO was injured
Faugheen has beat no one but 3m chasers and mullins 5th and 6th strings
yes count them, Fly 2011, 2013, Jezki 2014, beat them even though he did the hard work from the front. Were they false champions as well losing to the false champion Faugheen? I don't understand your logic. Who's the deserving champion? The injured New One ? The New One! Right!!! He's the champ..
Who's the deserving champion? The injured New One ? The New One! Right!!! He's the champ..
I think oyabw4 point is that he's not rated 174, cause Artic Fire is not rated 169.
Faugheen is the deserving champion, but if Mullins had a set we'd see Douvan, Faugheen, Wicklow Brave, Artic Fire, Nichols Canyon, Diakali all go for the Champion. Throw in Identity Thief, Peace and Co,
what a race that would be.
But he doesn't so we'll have Faugheen and Artic Fire taking on Peace and Co and whatever $hite McManus decides to enter.
I think oyabw4 point is that he's not rated 174, cause Artic Fire is not rated 169.
Faugheen is the deserving champion, but if Mullins had a set we'd see Douvan, Faugheen, Wicklow Brave, Artic Fire, Nichols Canyon, Diakali all go for the Champion. Throw in Identity Thief, Peace and Co,
what a race that would be.
But he doesn't so we'll have Faugheen and Artic Fire taking on Peace and Co and whatever $hite McManus decides to enter.
He made no points but only threw out subjective views and made figures up from nothing substantial, the last season form is proofed by the numerous form lines using all the trial races of the season, they were confirmed by all handicappers out there, Timeform has him as 171, RP at 173, Irish and British handicappers at 174. He is the supreme champion of last season, deservedly so.
WB and Diakali are short enough of championship level. Douvan is RR owned so blame him for wanting to win as many races at the festival. NC and AF are 100% to be in the CH, same as Identity Thief now. P&C, MTOY and Top Notch could all make it. It'll be far more competitive than last season CHs with all the talent coming through, thats for sure.
WB and Diakali are short enough of championship level. Douvan is RR owned so blame him for wanting to win as many races at the festival. NC and AF are 100% to be in the CH, same as Identity Thief now. P&C, MTOY and Top Notch could all make it. It'll be far more competitive than last season CHs with all the talent coming through, thats for sure.
Timtim I agree with most of what you say but be careful in saying that it will be far more competitive than last years CH. That was said before the 2015 race also and of course when Faugheen murdered them it was then said to be a poor race.
It is interesting that a lot seem to think that the Morgiana was run at a slow pace and ended in a sprint.
If you do the sectionals for the first race (a handicap) and Nichols Canyon - I have compared him with Bentelimar (OR 138) who also carried 11-10 and raced prominently, finishing third. Jumping the sixth, NC was almost 30 lengths up on Bentelimar.
From the 6th to the finishing line, NC recorded a time less than a length faster than Nichols Canyon.
If you do the sectionals for the first race (a handicap) and Nichols Canyon - I have compared him with Bentelimar (OR 138) who also carried 11-10 and raced prominently, finishing third. Jumping the sixth, NC was almost 30 lengths up on Bentelimar.
From the 6th to the finishing line, NC recorded a time less than a length faster than Nichols Canyon.
Also interesting that people think Jezki and TNO underperformed in this year's champion hurdle. Why? The Fly had beaten jezki 3 consecutive times coming into the race and confirmed that form. TNO got 2 lengths closer to Jezki than the last time they met when he had suffered interference. So the fly, jezki and TNO all ran to form and Arctic Fire was the big improver. It was a seriously good race.
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