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Bad day at the office today... but cant resist a little bet on Greatwood Hurdle on
OLOFI a major standout at 33/1, He won the race 2 years ago on soft going and on 10-11, he is now on 10-4 with a claimer on board taking 5lb off, he was 8th in the race last year but was off 11st... surely this weight differential can make a difference?
Biggest concern is the age could have regressed but cant help chancing on him based on change of jockey and the claim.
Good Luck.
OLOFI a major standout at 33/1, He won the race 2 years ago on soft going and on 10-11, he is now on 10-4 with a claimer on board taking 5lb off, he was 8th in the race last year but was off 11st... surely this weight differential can make a difference?
Biggest concern is the age could have regressed but cant help chancing on him based on change of jockey and the claim.
Good Luck.
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Could it be he has got worse I.e peaked fallen out with the
game and become rubbish?
game and become rubbish?
That could be the case, but, like the OP, I think 33/1 is worth the gamble.
Backed it the last two years, soft again last year off a lower mark than 2013 & was well beat, would not put anyone of backing him at that price but not only is he out of form but if the ground becomes heavy that will also imo be against him.
8th last year (135, sft), didn't run 2 years ago and actually won 3 years ago (136, sft), 2nd 4 years ago (130 gd/sft), 5th 5 years ago (132 gd/sft). Running off a mark of 132 this year with a 5lbs claimer, so the handicap mark doesn't look too bad to me.
Has the horse regressed? Well after its best ever performance winning here 3 years ago (144) it didn't do much after and dropped down the weights (133). Tried over further and climbed up the ratings (142) only to drop down again.
Last run a week ago and finished 6th of 8 in a grade 2 handicap. Trainers comments pre race were quite interesting
"Olofi's work has been top class and it suggests he's as good as ever," said George.
"This is the first time we've run him nice and fresh first time out away from Cheltenham for a while.
"Usually when he runs at Cheltenham he comes there two out looking likely to win only to not get up the hill.
"I think the flatter track should suit and the ground won't bother him.
"He's not had a lot of runs and he usually goes well fresh so a small field might just suit him.
"The handicapper has given him a chance as he didn't crucify him for finishing relatively close to The New One last season."
Cliff notes
-Horse run without either PT for the first time in 5 years last run. Was that a possible prep run for a much bigger prize today or is the horse just not good enough at this level any more? 33/1 to find out
-PT go back on which should be a positive, but owner has another runner Dexcite (25/1)who is less exposed and regular jockey seems to have chosen that ride. If you're backing one it may be worth having a little on the other.
Has the horse regressed? Well after its best ever performance winning here 3 years ago (144) it didn't do much after and dropped down the weights (133). Tried over further and climbed up the ratings (142) only to drop down again.
Last run a week ago and finished 6th of 8 in a grade 2 handicap. Trainers comments pre race were quite interesting
"Olofi's work has been top class and it suggests he's as good as ever," said George.
"This is the first time we've run him nice and fresh first time out away from Cheltenham for a while.
"Usually when he runs at Cheltenham he comes there two out looking likely to win only to not get up the hill.
"I think the flatter track should suit and the ground won't bother him.
"He's not had a lot of runs and he usually goes well fresh so a small field might just suit him.
"The handicapper has given him a chance as he didn't crucify him for finishing relatively close to The New One last season."
Cliff notes
-Horse run without either PT for the first time in 5 years last run. Was that a possible prep run for a much bigger prize today or is the horse just not good enough at this level any more? 33/1 to find out
-PT go back on which should be a positive, but owner has another runner Dexcite (25/1)who is less exposed and regular jockey seems to have chosen that ride. If you're backing one it may be worth having a little on the other.
It could be that Olofi is regressing but at 33/1 it's a chance I am willing to take as he has run well in this race a number of times. Also the stablemate Dexcite as previously said is worth an each way tickle.
That's really thorough analysis Dibdob... nice to see... trainer comments (this morning) seemed quite positive as they tried new tactics on him last time out (riding him prominently) and that it didn't work... and are more hopeful with a new jockey and the claim... with normal riding tactics resumed.
So its just a case of whether he brings his game today... but stable vibe seems to be positive which is good and no excuses if he doesn't.
So its just a case of whether he brings his game today... but stable vibe seems to be positive which is good and no excuses if he doesn't.
Been a good day today so gone with a RV on the 2 as well as some ew plays. Good luck
yeah riding tactics for OLOFI did surprise me jockey looking for the widest position - difficult to know whether horse has regressed but wont be backing him again...!
Based on triumph hurdle form thought on weights Devilment was 10l in front of Old Guard.. on similar ground... horse has certainly improved over the summer...
Based on triumph hurdle form thought on weights Devilment was 10l in front of Old Guard.. on similar ground... horse has certainly improved over the summer...
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