Jaseur tonight

To be honest unless it was given iffy rides in those races it's all part of the game. I should imagine any layers would have been wary of a good trainer and a wealthy owner? It's the horses that are stopped that are the biggest plague. I noticed the jockey hit it when it was clear today. The other problem is the BHA "note explanations" from these type of runs and then when have we ever heard of any follow up?

I couldn't say it has been stopped as such, no.
Would still like to know what has been done to the horse since Wolverhampton to make such a startling difference.
Had a few quid on it the previous start thinking the blinkers might sharpen it up and was as sluggish as ever.
Could be anything, breathing op/extensive stalls training/fitting of different undeclared eqipment. Take your pick.

Step up in trip, and no better man on board to make the pace.

The Stewards held an enquiry to consider the apparent improvement in form of the winner, JASSUR, ridden by Oisin Murphy and trained by Marco Botti, which had never previously been placed. They interviewed the trainer who stated that the colt benefited from a step up in trip and being ridden more positively. Having heard his evidence his explanation was noted.

Choniac, I don't disagree with either comment in its own right but no way is that the sole explanation.

Having had a quick look back at previous runs, it does seem quite a significant improvement. I dont think anyone could pinpoint what it was; we'll probably have to see its next run to see how todays performance fares.

It certainly wasn't a fluke and it will probably win again. Though some of his rivals being held up well out of their ground in the kickback undoubtedly helped him. Wouldn't normally bother to comment on an unexposed one improving after only a few runs but very rare to see such a startling improvement in a short space of time for a horse than has already tried handicaps.

easy after but he's a big old boat and half brother to 2 decent middle distance horses.

only getting going at the end over the mile last time so even though the sire gets 6&7f winners, this wasn't likely to be one of them.

he had three quick runs then a couple of months off, he ran okay at wolverhampton looks to have improved, he is only two after all. got a really good ride tonight as well. i doubt he is going to be a world beater but rather than criticise or look for things that arent there i would just say well done to the trainer.

Now you have it Chonic..... that trip to Oz paying off really well regards to pace..... My man

Yes, well done to the trainer on getting a well-bred horse a mark of 49 and finding a way to completely transform his attitude and racing style when the money is down. Fair play, it takes a bit of skill to get a horse to run that badly in a shocking race as on his previous start when it is probably at least an 80 horse.

oh aye BB its a science and all horses are the same

like i have said loads of times BB you only see what you want to see based on what the market says

As if I have claimed all horses are the same!
How on earth do you draw that conclusion?
Just highlighting a horse that has shown absolutely staggering improvement in a short space of time and been backed to do so.
I refuse to accept that it is merely the distance that has improved the horse. It has gone from barely being able to run to absolutely hacking up within the space of less than 3 weeks. I don't know how anyone could watch that horse in previous races and then observe it tonight and not think that what transpired is, at the very least rather odd.

i dont quite see where you think its last run was that bad, he was entitled to need it, first time blinkers, first time on surface, personally i thought he ran okay, has he really improved that much?

so, can a two year old not show improvement in three weeks, i wouldnt say it was absolutely staggering either

It was staggering. Visually as much as anything. Has improved two stone, minimum.
Would you normally expect a turf horse to struggle with his first run on an artificial surface (barring fibresand) and improve massively for the experience of it. It's probably not unheard of, but I would say it is pretty rare for a turf horse to massively need the experience of poly/tapeta. Most yards have artifical gallops and I am sure Botti has had loads of horses win first time on these surfaces as well. And the blinkers did zero to sharpen him up first time. The usual effect of first-time blinkers is to sharpen a horse up. Didn't happen.

It was a sluggish, laboured effort and he never looking any sort of threat last time. Today he pinged out (having missed the break on every previous start), tanked along in front and had the race in the bag a long way from home. Seriously, have you watched the races and don't see a massive difference?

i dont know where to start with your last post to be honest. no i dont think he has improved two stone minimum. i never said it would struggle with the surface, i do happen to think that at chelmsford they need a bit of experience of it and some dont take to it. imo its a myth to say blinkers only sharpen them up on first run.
he got an excellent ride tonight compared to some others in the field. i think he will win again, especially around there but is nowhere near an 80 rated horse at present.

time will tell

It hadn't run at Chelmsford before tonight (or even on polytrack) but lets not let get the facts get in the way.
Not claiming blinkers only sharpen horses up on their first run, but it is very unusual for them to appear to have zero effect first time and then spark a total transformation second time.
He got an excellent ride I agree. Most horses who are well backed in low-grade races get good rides.
He hasn't run to 80 tonight but will end up rated a minimum of 80 by the end of 2016.

What's wrong with my last point, apart from being in disagreement with your somewhat mystifying view of events?

i didnt find it staggering, i dont agree it has improved 2 stone minimum, which meant it ran to nearly 80 tonight iyo. i dont think it showed a massive amount of improvement to win tonight from its last run. i dont think its last run was sluggish laboured but that of a horse that had been off for two months, in fact i would say his wolverhampton run was a massive improvement from what he had shown before.

all about opinions though good luck

BB there are various lines of form to say it wasn't a massive improvement and certainly not as big as you're saying.

The winner of that Wolves race has since come out and won easily off 68. The 2nd has come out and been beaten 2 lengths off 68. The 4th placed horse Breslin had previously beaten tonight's 2nd by 2 1/2 lengths getting a pound as opposed to the 11 pounds Jassur got off him tonight. Gameplay was a further head behind in that race giving a pound to Breslin before the jockey's 3 pound claim was taken into account. Jassur was only a short head behind Breslin at Wolves.

He's improved without a doubt but it's not as staggering as you make out.

I agree Barton.  I got a tip on the horse to get on at 10's , I missed that and backed at 8's and then had a look at the form and thought it can't win.  But thats class 6 hcaps on the all weather for you

A race of slowboats bar the winner at least on that surface,wouldn't want to be backing those in behind that's for sure stable must be very disappointed after costing 140,000 to be running in these desperate races and obviously had no idea this would be best trip..

Wolverhampton was certainly an improvement. Have just watched the video of that run again to check my notes and see if I was being unfair to the horse in tpying "slowly away, needed early reminders, first horse off the bridle before plugging on", but I stand by my view that it was a sluggish effort and the horse has jumped out and travelled like a completley different horse tonight with the money down.
As far as the collatoral form goes, take the point re the winner, though he's just a progressive horse anyway and had something in hand at Wolves for me. Imo the runner-up ran marginally worse next time out but stll ran a creditable race. Breslin was tailed off next time and I would take his previous win with something of a pinch of salt as he got an excellent ride from SDS with the money down. Gameplay might have beaten him with a positive ride and has finished last tonight.
I think in general using collatoral form for unexposed horses is a dangerous policy and I much prefer to rely on racereading and pedigree analysis. And as I say, it is not so much the nuts and bolts of the form as the way the horse has gone from not consistnetly missing the break to pinging out and tanking along in front.

Aye, there's a lot of money wasted on purchasing horses that don't prove to me much good.

giggs

hope all is well

BB had he won tonight after drifting in the market would your opinion have changed any, i apologise for some of my earlier comments but i do feel sometimes you get blinkered by what happens in the market

Don't apologise for disagreeing with me, I wouldn't (unless I thought I had offended someone, which you haven't).
I would have still been staggered by the horses improvement regardless of the SP tonight. Nonetheless, I think there is an extremely strong correlation between the quality of not only the perfomances of horses but also the way they are ridden. And that this is particualrly the case in low-grade races. I reckon if the horse had gone off at 20/1 he would have fallen out of the stalls again tbh, run into the kickback and not been seen with a chance. I also think if the Prescott horse who went off around even money last time had been well backed again, he would have got a completley different ride tonight. But there you go.
I can't prove the above but I am cynical and as far as Horse Racing goes I think it is best to be cynical. That's the game, particualry round the gaffs when they are running for peanuts prize money. If I took everything at face value and believed the game to be straight I would have gone skint years ago.

Agree about the perils of collateral form BB, especially in these 2 year old races and I didn't trust it myself tonight. But for anyone wanting to take a literal reading of it there was some reason to believe he ran to a much higher mark than the 49 he was running off tonight. As it's turned out the literal reading has turned out to seemingly be the key to the race. Plus he was doing all his best work at the end of that Wolves race so the step up in trip looked a plus as well.

To be honest if I trained him the one thing I'd have been working on since the last run would be to get him out of the stalls quicker. In fairness, though he did get out better tonight he still needed pushing for the first 100 yards or so.

I take the point, he him sticking on at Wolves and upped in trip tonight. That said however, I think if he had been in the same form at Wolves as he was tonight he would have pissed up in that race as well regardless of it being a shorter distance.

Anyways folks, interesting discussion but I am going to crack on with looking at a few races at Cheltenham tomoz now.
Good luck with your bets.

botti gamble wins in all weather evening race.

im going next thurs.hopefully another gambled horse will land in every race

i doubt i will see another world beater though .

or another tryster

i have been lucky enough to have a leg in a few this year and as such have had the pleasure of spending time at stables and to watch work. it has been a real eye opener. getting one fit and to the track is an achievement imo, never mind getting it in the right race. a good older work horse for the 2yo's is worth its weight in gold and i find the trainers advice is wrong more often than not loool

In fairness this has been one of the better threads i've read here in years, considering the subject matter. more of the same please contributors!

thanks mate

it was and BB always makes a point backed up with his reasons and what he sees as fact, you might not agree with them but you better be prepared to fight your corner lol

nowt wrong with a good debate imho doesnt happen enough on here now

3 horses,gambled on,all made all,ch [aw],

very similar form to Jaseur,

after 4 unplaced runs, it was upped in distance by John Gosden and duly won and then landed back to back wins at Ascot

Care to name the horse, foxy?

I already have, it's Jaseur,

your horse is spelt Jassur

Haha, that's very good! Like it.

I only remembered it because I backed it after the initial win,

aftertiming after 22 years

Jasseur.
if i'm not mistaken it was top in RPR and Speed
according to Raceform interactive

Botti stated in the Racing Post this could be an 85 Oss and he doesn't want it  to go to the sales.

ttt

ttt

looks to have been visually impressive in a crap race last time, okay not the best of rides there but no way on that form is he a 80 rated horse.

Just watched it now. Looked to me like he got the fractions wrong. There were horses finishing in the frame that looked likely to be tailed off. I'm not judging the horse on that run tonight. I reckon it can still run an 80+ figure though maybe it will do it at Chelmsford which in fairness is a track that seems to favour front runners.

maybe BB but he didnt look the same horse tonight, early days though.

Very slow finishing time as tracks so quick at the moment,the time at Chelmsford was reasonable especially for a horse tha was rated only 49 and won so easily.The stone rise looked spot on,on that run he looked a 70 horse I wouldn't be able to rate him higher than that till he's run well again,those Chelmsford winners are getting beat at other tracks hardly surprising though as chalk and cheese..

I've just checked my extensive horse time data light at night algorithm and concluded the horse could not carry the penalty after an over exuberant ride lto

Poor again tonight BB