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19 Sep 15
07:40
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14 Apr 06
....E.W. Bet Melvin The Grate 16.20 Ayr 7-1 generally (use BOG)..
Having looked at both the Gold Cup, as well as the Silver equivalent, I was starting to lose the will to live. I had also been assessing both races at the 48hr declaration stage, but yesterday's racing over the sprint trips had me tearing up my biggish short lists in both races, and may revisit both races later after a break. I also looked last night at the 16.20 contest on the Ayr card, with a horse within that has been waiting in my notebook from his run Lto, that horse being the Andrew Balding trained Melvin The Grate.
The suspicion is he may be a better operator on an A.W. surface, however having looked through his lifetime form it becomes apparent he may well just be an Autumn and winter type, as opposed to those that like the spring air and heat on their back to show worth. Taking a snapshot of lifetime form from September up to December a form pattern emerges of 2-1-2-3-3-2-1-(12)-1-1, only failing to miss the frame once in ten attempts, having a 40% win ratio, giving a fair return on a £10 total investment to £1 level stakes of + £6.35. With his lifetime stats in mind it's no wonder connections have gave him the summer off as his form started to tail off in his latest winter/spring campaign despite those last couple in the campaign being highly respectable events.
Both of his runs during his current campaign have been solid enough runs considering, his latest start at York a surefire indicator that he is now very much coming to hand, when weaving a fairly troubled passage from mid division to stake a claim towards the closing stages of that truly run contest. Somebody had a feeling that there was a decent run in him, having been as big as 40-1 in places on the morning he was nibbled at throughout the day, eventually going off 16-1 when securing 4th spot, hopefully his followers that day had backed him E.W. The cherry on the cake is the assessor has seen fit to drop him 1lb for that excellent run, now heading into the time of year we know he operates in he makes plenty of appeal to me as a betting proposition.
GL if you get involved.
Having looked at both the Gold Cup, as well as the Silver equivalent, I was starting to lose the will to live. I had also been assessing both races at the 48hr declaration stage, but yesterday's racing over the sprint trips had me tearing up my biggish short lists in both races, and may revisit both races later after a break. I also looked last night at the 16.20 contest on the Ayr card, with a horse within that has been waiting in my notebook from his run Lto, that horse being the Andrew Balding trained Melvin The Grate.
The suspicion is he may be a better operator on an A.W. surface, however having looked through his lifetime form it becomes apparent he may well just be an Autumn and winter type, as opposed to those that like the spring air and heat on their back to show worth. Taking a snapshot of lifetime form from September up to December a form pattern emerges of 2-1-2-3-3-2-1-(12)-1-1, only failing to miss the frame once in ten attempts, having a 40% win ratio, giving a fair return on a £10 total investment to £1 level stakes of + £6.35. With his lifetime stats in mind it's no wonder connections have gave him the summer off as his form started to tail off in his latest winter/spring campaign despite those last couple in the campaign being highly respectable events.
Both of his runs during his current campaign have been solid enough runs considering, his latest start at York a surefire indicator that he is now very much coming to hand, when weaving a fairly troubled passage from mid division to stake a claim towards the closing stages of that truly run contest. Somebody had a feeling that there was a decent run in him, having been as big as 40-1 in places on the morning he was nibbled at throughout the day, eventually going off 16-1 when securing 4th spot, hopefully his followers that day had backed him E.W. The cherry on the cake is the assessor has seen fit to drop him 1lb for that excellent run, now heading into the time of year we know he operates in he makes plenty of appeal to me as a betting proposition.
GL if you get involved.
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All the best sir
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Additional E.W. bet(s) Nameitwhatyoulike 14.35 Ayr 16-1 generally + Highland Colori 22-1 generally use BOG firm with 5 places + smaller E.W. double at those odds.
Having revisited both of the big field sprints on the card, I've decided to go with just one from each contest, basically they were in my original thinking, but look to have been given a fair enough stall to embark from considering the way yesterday's sprint action unfolded. In the Silver Cup I like the chances of Nameitwhatyoulike, who is in the process of having his most lucrative season to date, which looks hopefully set to continue prior to it's conclusion. Usually when backing a horse at the back end of the season I'm inclined to side with a horse that has been lightly raced or looks to have been kept fresh with an autumn campaign in mind. If you consider a sprint handicapper's usual type of campaign could be in the region of 10-12 runs by this stage of a season (more in many cases), Nameitwhatyoulike has not been overly exerted with just 6 starts, especially if you consider he's been on the go since May. Despite trying distances ranging from 5f-8F during his career, this season he has been campaigned solely over 6F, winning and running some excellent races, holding his form over such a long period of time extremely well. However as a result he is contesting today's race of a career high mark, but you may argue that he is actually 4lb well in on today's mark of 93. That is of course hypothetically speaking, as he was only put up 2lb for getting beat a very narrow margin in the Great St Wilfred consolation race, beating the equally sized group he led for most of that contest on the far side fairly well. I'm sure at some point the handicapper will win the argument, of course that may well be now, however I personally get the feeling he still has a little more to offer in terms of his mark, and Imo at 16-1 in today's event could give his supporters a nice enough run for their money. Now onto the main event, where despite the age stats being against him Highland Colori looks to have been campaigned with a crack at regaining this Cup, with his only two runs at Ayr both being in renewals of this race producing a 2nd & 1st off 91 and 104 respectively. Both of those good runs came on an easy surface, but 4 of his 9 career wins have came on G/Firm ground, so today's decent ground should pose no problems. He blew the cobwebs away off the back of a short break at Ascot recently, when making plenty of the early running in that contest before weakening out of things when passing the 2 pole, only being pushed out under hand riding when his chance had gone, which should have brought him nicely to the boil regards fitness. Andrew Balding may be set for a good day, but his horses look to be in reasonable heart presently, giving hope that Highland Colori could have a better run in him than his current odds suggest, especially returning to a venue he looks to really appreciate. |
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good luck great write up
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yes clearly spends his time on these , good to see them lobby keep up the good work, and all the best of luck with your sel !
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Good luck Rob, backed Don't Call Me in the 4.20 yesterday at 25/1, though been in claimers recently ran in this race last year & came second off a mark of 97 it runs today with the claimer on board off 83, only two previous runs at the track resulted in wins & looked well overpriced in my book.
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bit unlucky with melvin the grate rob,slow pace might have denied you the win.
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Just back in to watch a replay of the race, totally agree KIW, looked like Hanagan rode a very cute race from the front.. MTG will remain in the note book all the same.
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