There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
04 Sep 15
12:02
Joined:
Date Joined:
10 Jan 07
Does anybody do this on a regular basis.
I don't really play i/r as I haven't got any fast pics. I have noticed when I study a race you can sometimes be pretty sure what is going to lead. They are often long-priced outsiders which I don't fancy laying at say 50s. I have on a few occasions kept a bet at 20s or so and got matched very quickly when the horse shoots off in front. If it doesn't do that or if the bet isn't matched within 15secs or so of the start I cancel it.
Just interested if anybody is prepared to admit they do this more systematically.
I don't really play i/r as I haven't got any fast pics. I have noticed when I study a race you can sometimes be pretty sure what is going to lead. They are often long-priced outsiders which I don't fancy laying at say 50s. I have on a few occasions kept a bet at 20s or so and got matched very quickly when the horse shoots off in front. If it doesn't do that or if the bet isn't matched within 15secs or so of the start I cancel it.
Just interested if anybody is prepared to admit they do this more systematically.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 30
|
By:
i layed a f\r in the racing post chase.........it was about 33\1 pre race..........it went tearing off.........i layed it at 3\1.......i couldnt believe my luck.........by the time it came in the straight it was back peddling at a rate of knots
|
|
By:
try and pinch a few pts before the off salmon sometimes if i'm pretty sure something will lead the first 2/3 furlongs
plenty that aren't that fancied will shorten a few pts in last few mins down to traders imo. beware if race has some totally unexposed runners at trip, they can suddenly revert tactics. |
|
By:
Apologies, i was thinking of trading, not just laying.
|
|
By:
I haven't managed anything as spectacular as cardiff's but that's an example of what I mean.
I don't normally trade either stridingedge. Just lay long but it's hard on here finding an edge on GB/Irish racing so I do most of my betting on the US stuff. Liquidity is so low on that now that I am looking more seriously at the British Isles again. |
|
By:
id rather back then lay the front runner
|
|
By:
If they favs or near favs you're probably right richboy but in NH races,particularly non-h'caps the outsider who goes off in front very rarely wins. I do check the form as well.
|
|
By:
*they're
|
|
By:
i meant back pre race looking to lay my stake back for a free bet. I love looking for a horse i fancy, thats going to get an easy lead. Look to get an early price, then pre race it generally gets well backed as the market is hugely affected now by people betting pre race on how the IR market will shape up (people looking to get a gd position pre race as they have an opinion how race will unfold, not necessary thinking horse will win) then when it does what you no it'll do it goes even shorter and you end up in a lovely position with a nice free bet or can lay out or play others... lot easier to do NH obviously dont like playing IR on flat as have no quick PIKS.
|
|
By:
Pixeleen 2.40 Ascot 20.0 on here, shud lead I reckon, maybe trade it, lay I/r at 12.5, don't think it will last much more than the furlong marker
|
|
By:
Maybe trading is the way forward. I am inclined to c0ck it up entirely or make a very minimal profit if I try it on the horses. Better on things like cricket and golf where you can actually think for a minute or two. I prefer straight laying on the gee-gees and probably too old to change my ways.
|
|
By:
its to hard to trade on flat , NH a bit easier as long as you have fair pics and proper software its do able as long as you dont try to get to greedy. Key is to no what your doing pre race target/aim wise and not get greedy!
|
|
By:
I mainly play win, ew horses to be honest I've added laying into my port folio with mixed results
|
|
By:
Salmon, everything slows down with age.. I'm another who prefers the "old school" ways
|
|
By:
Yes koi. And I have never used software. It would feel like cheating but more importantly I wouldn't have a clue how to use it.
|
|
By:
its really useful to be honest
|
|
By:
especially when your horse goes ten clear lol
|
|
By:
Occasionally, I put every horse into lay at 1.7 and see what happens!
Obviously, you will lay the winner, but two matched obviously a profit! Occasionally, you might be lucky and get more than two matched! I fully accept that if only the winner matched then obviously a loss! F*cking obvious really!  |
|
By:
trading the only way to make it pay (nap)
|
|
By:
I reckon backing front runners during the race is a better idea, front running is a massive advantage in horse racing. But you probably have to have fast pictures as otherwise the price will collapse pretty quickly.
the problem with trying to predict what is going to lead prerace, well that's more sophisticated and you can often get it wrong. |
|
By:
I would think that if you are back to lay off IR, it's the price you back at compared to what you lay at that matters most
no point backing at 14 to lay at 12 or 10 |
|
By:
Also backing front runners at gaffe tracks in Ireland, that can't be a bad idea. Often you get some front runner which the other jockeys ignore, and they win at huge odds. I remember watching the odds inplay in this race in Ireland some years back, think it was a hurdle race, some horse was 300-1 plus pre race, was leading coming around the home turn with a sizeable advantage, incredibly was still trading at 100-1, of course the odds started collapsing as it went further and further clear...
The trick is usually to get on the front runner early in the race then lay off at shorter odds towards the end of the race. But only if they get an easy lead. If they are harried for the lead then a lot of the advantage they have is lost. Back them early doors, lay them off towards the end of the race and even back them again at that point, because once they are passed the odds shoot out massively, but I've often seen front runners battle back to win after being passed and looked beaten. |
|
By:
Unless you know the horse is following a lifetime's tactics, it's way too risky.
The major negative is you have no chance of getting out IR You can take a big RED all round, but then there's the shame of it running out of steam and tailing off. Much prefer to lay Favs at the back who have to pass the whole field. |
|
By:
Just hope bf lets the race go ir, pablo - another consideration.
|
|
By:
Good points there lewisham.
Gifting easy leads to big outsiders happens relatively often compared to here. Many even make all!! |
|
By:
 wesdag |
|
By:
I know it happens in Ireland that an outsider is given a free ride up front but not as often as people think. And if I have layed it at 10s it's not that big a loss compared with some I have had laying pre-race.
But thanks for your thoughts everybody |
|
By:
Depends on the conditions. If it's a long-priced outsider, then you'd definitely want to be laying it at a short price at a track where poorly-credentialed horses get found out. That straight at Doncaster on the Flat is endless, for instance: anything that's gone off too fast is going to be found out there, particularly if it weren't much cop to begin with.
On the other hand, somewhere like those Irish gaffs with 8-furlong circuits and always on the turn can be a godsend for bad or ungenuine nags that need to be kept interested and can nick 20l simply by hugging the rail. Basically your system is no more than simply laying horses at lower prices in-running unless you bring a bit of knowledge to the table. |
|
By:
betting front runners then laying off is the staple diet of most track players..
|
|
By:
I can read form screaming ( as well as most I think ) so only looking for outsiders. I'm quite happy laying at long odds though not 1000s.
I THINK roida is suggesting he and his mates work on the same principle I am thinking about. |
|
By:
i rarely do it personally but most front runners half in price..
|