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Do they exist? Some say yes and most seem to say no.
I have spent loads of time trying to find out for myself.
Using various methods and software I have come up with these.
All cover a five year period unless it says different below.
Profit to 1 pt level stake using betfair sp.
After deduction of 5% commission.
System 1
195 winners from 713 selections for profit of 221.85 points
System 2
88 winners from 314 selections for a profit of 124.12 points
System 3
128 winners from 454 selections for a profit of 160.10 points
System 4
304 winners from 634 selections for a profit of 138.52 points
System 5
289 winners from 802 selections for a profit of 211.38 points
System 6
61 winners from 265 selections for a profit of 115.92 points
System 7
47 winners from 186 selections for a profit of 102.34 points
System 8
30 winners from 112 selections for a profit of 47.99 points
System 9
63 winners from 193 selections for a profit of 42.19 points
System 10
422 winners from 1277 selections for a profit of 168.30 points
System 11
358 winners from 684 selections for a profit of 85.52 points
Some have quite small sample sizes but overall I think they look promising.
Hopefully results will continue to be as good going forward.
I have done the donkey work and now I think it's time to try and make some money.
I have not got a fortune to play with. I am not loaded like some on here!
I am pretty nervous but at the same time excited about this.
Here we go!
I have spent loads of time trying to find out for myself.
Using various methods and software I have come up with these.
All cover a five year period unless it says different below.
Profit to 1 pt level stake using betfair sp.
After deduction of 5% commission.
System 1
195 winners from 713 selections for profit of 221.85 points
System 2
88 winners from 314 selections for a profit of 124.12 points
System 3
128 winners from 454 selections for a profit of 160.10 points
System 4
304 winners from 634 selections for a profit of 138.52 points
System 5
289 winners from 802 selections for a profit of 211.38 points
System 6
61 winners from 265 selections for a profit of 115.92 points
System 7
47 winners from 186 selections for a profit of 102.34 points
System 8
30 winners from 112 selections for a profit of 47.99 points
System 9
63 winners from 193 selections for a profit of 42.19 points
System 10
422 winners from 1277 selections for a profit of 168.30 points
System 11
358 winners from 684 selections for a profit of 85.52 points
Some have quite small sample sizes but overall I think they look promising.
Hopefully results will continue to be as good going forward.
I have done the donkey work and now I think it's time to try and make some money.
I have not got a fortune to play with. I am not loaded like some on here!
I am pretty nervous but at the same time excited about this.
Here we go!
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System 5
2.45 Brighton Picansort (showing 9/2 with bookies) System 10 3.45 Brighton Voice Control (showing 6/1 with bookies) 4.15 Brighton Ocean Applause (showing 15/2 with bookies) 7.10 Newbury Quite Smart (showing 10/1 with bookies) |
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Good luck.
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Back tested systems almost invariably all fail.
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All the relevant information is missing from your original post
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You could find another 100 systems in less than 10 minutes, just looking at the big trainers' records at different tracks over the last 5 years, just by looking at the RP stats pages - eg Gosden at Ascot, Newbury, Haydock, Newmarket (July) - all nicely in profit at SP with decent-sized samples, never mind Betfair SP. There's no need to spend loads of time. All useless going forwards.
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That's what I love about forums. You always get naysayers, nitpickers, critics. Never words of encouragement.
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Perhaps if he'd like to put up the guts of one of the systems, rather than a bunch of numbers, which would be the only interesting thing about the whole business, he might be worthy of encouragement.
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Bad Luck
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I'm sure he has it all well documented. Your suggestion is a good one, ged. Murchu68, what d'ya think?
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"Back tested systems almost invariably all fail."
Yes they do, and trouble is, you can't collect from past results.  |
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The main problems with systems is finding ones that are timeless, and have a steady rate of growth - proportional to the risk exposure. Then there's the idiots who fail to grasp just how small their(ANY) system edge actually is, and proceed to bet with unrealistic expectations of profit growth..and when that growth isn't met, and their p&l graph doesn't resemble a 45-degree line, the system is swiftly deemed useless and thrown away. And the search moves on for that "make me a mint overnight" system. Something which can be searched for from now until the end of the world and never ever be found. Why? because a game which is driven by knowledge, before being left at the mercy of chance, randomness, "luck", means excessively beating that game which establishes fairly accurate markets with high variance, is not only difficult, it's simply impossible.
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Horses just don't fit neatly into systems, too many variables.
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stacks here
help yourself https://www.mediafire.com/?54ot6r5vb8bty |
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the more you have,the more you'll be driven to drink
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something wrong
all systems show a profit  |
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There are some very valid points made by previous posters, I am another who would have doubts about any system without knowing anything about it, my first thought is from 11 systems how have you or how are you going to choose which ones to use your funds with...?
Five years is a long time to spend researching so I wish you well with your venture, best of luck |
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If 5,10 is a result today,I'm listening
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Hi guys ... bit of info theres only ONE system that works , has for the last 400 years
still going strong today even the Internationals handicappers all over the world swear by this system ...........THE FORM BOOK ...hope that helps ... |
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hello stranger ! you been betting here last 5 years but you never bothered with forum ? lol.
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( Any 'back-test' proven system will fail sooner than any 'new' system - thats not exactly true, obv - a 'new' system might just be a spectacularly poor example of its class, but going by averages - over each set - the old system's failure is gonna be closer than the new systems failure
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OP's op - collating all them tedious numbers didn't leave much time for entertainment i guess. Hope you enjoy what you do.
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there are systems that work, when it seems that the edge is wearing off the system, its really just creating more opportunities for another way of making money, a near perfect system usually has an oscillating rhythm. if you unable to develop a system, THE FORMBOOK will be the best alternative IMO.
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a near perfect system usually has an oscillating rhythm.
c-R-a-P |
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most go t1ts up if there has been an edge in the first place once the sample size becomes significant as plenty are on the look out doing exactly the same as the OP here.
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More of a response than I expected and thanks to all for contributions.
Most of it on the pessimistic side but fair enough. Perhaps that will just turn out to be the harsh reality of things. Non-runners have changed things since I posted selections for today. Revised selections as follows: System 10 345 Brighton Voice Control 415 Brighton Symphony Of Kings 710 Newbury Quite Smart |
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There are systems that work cos there are little areas/angles to horse racing that arent correctly weighted by the market...an obvious & basic example is that backing stall 1 in hcaps at Chester remains profitable because the betting market STILL does not correctly weight how much of an advantage it is...obviously the day the market does weight correctly is the day the system goes from profitable to lossmaking
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not this year dunc
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 HCPS apologies |
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it is according to horseracebase.com, striding
Inside stall: 11-56 (19.6%) +10.06 ROI @ BFSP or Stall 1: 9-50 (18) +8.23 ROI @ BFSP [all Chester hcps 2015] Inside stall also in profit prev 6 yrs |
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no worries
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yes i have got the same dunc
i didn't read for hcps only initially  profits look like they are being eroded over time |
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think prob bit premature to say being eroded..2014 & 2015 (so far) down on previous years but they do boast the highest Place %age figs, so poss just the odd horse fin 2nd rather than 1st each year responsible for the difference (imo)
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i'll start backing them, that should be the final nail
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yep, that should do it
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winners @ 10/3 & 9/1 (plus sh hd 2nd @ 7/2) from 5 hcps last Saturday btw
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I record a lot of data and use it in excel database.
Whichever way I look at it from various combinations it doesn't get higher than 33% win strike rate. System 11 of yours looks pretty good. |
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david evans
no jockey claim >10/1 saved this about 13 qualifiers ago and yesterday he pinged another long shot, i backed the 2nd  suggests his horses are often underbet, recent form frequently not important to his runners! |
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36% return for 3203 runners since 2008
this year been bonkers |