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starkeycars
26 Jul 15 16:40
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Date Joined: 23 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 2,300 | Blogger: starkeycars's blog
Does anyone know what the stats are for  favourites  3 yo horses running against older horses ?  Thanks
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Report kirovski July 26, 2015 6:36 PM BST
The figures I have for 3YO clear favs in All Age flat races on the Turf and AW for the past 5 years are:

Non-Hcaps -  43.7% winners for a 3.4% loss on turnover at SP ( 0.32% profit at Betfair SP after 5% commission).

Hcaps- 28% winners for a 11.3% loss at SP ( 6.8%  loss at BSP)

I haven't looked in too much detail at the figures my computer has churned out but it looks like  May is the best month to back non-hcap favs with a modest profit being returned in most years. Best months to lay them are January and (just about) August.

Best time to bet in Hcaps is in December for small profits. June and August best times to lay.
Report Greenacres July 26, 2015 7:46 PM BST
Kirovski - thanks for figures. Would it be possible to give 3YO+ favs in all non-handicap races?  Thanks in advance.
Report starkeycars July 26, 2015 7:49 PM BST
Thanks kirovski for taking the time to have a look much appreciated Happy
Report kirovski July 26, 2015 8:05 PM BST
To answer Greenacres:

All favs in All Age  non hcaps-   40.55% winners , loss of 7% at SP, loss of 3.6% at BSP

All favs older than 3 in  All Age non -hcaps - 35.8% winners , loss of 12.55% at SP, loss of 9.58% at BSP.

On the face of it there might be a small edge in laying favs older than 3 in non-hcaps.
Report Greenacres July 26, 2015 8:11 PM BST
Once again, Kirovski, many thanks.  I operate a little system involving 3YO+ favs - non-hcp - and your info helps immensely.
Report deadbrain59 July 27, 2015 6:54 AM BST
lay short not odds on.HappyHappyHappy
Report deadbrain59 July 27, 2015 6:56 AM BST
keep off irish and aw.
Report Greenacres July 27, 2015 8:54 AM BST
Deadbrain - thanks for the advice - noted....
Report Greg_Gory July 27, 2015 9:09 AM BST
Massey Custom report here


http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/db3/thaccess.php
Report deadbrain59 July 27, 2015 11:20 AM BST
dont lay won last time out either,
Report bruno100 July 27, 2015 11:59 AM BST
Kirovski how do I get my computer to tell me these things
Report swift-tuttle July 27, 2015 1:59 PM BST
kirovski unlikely to reply Bruno

3 posts in 14 years makes me think he is man of few words
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