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Won very easily despite Ryan Moore at Sandown: So impressive they way he went passed and away from horses that were travelling /had first run and momentum on him. Gleneagles is a worthy fav for what he has achieved but Consort looks every inch a top class G1 horse.
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you didnt think to tell us that before Sandown?
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As it's the Sandown race i'm referring to, that would have been problematic (or proof of detailed prophesy).
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did you see Consort before Sandown?
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yes.
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so why did you not tell us before Sandown he was every inch a top class Group 1 horse
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Isee where you're coming fromnow.I was just posting my thoughts on a FORUM about a race at RA. You it semms think that is not what forums are for i take it ?
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14L improvement (plus more from hold up bias in the guineas) ina line through room key is a bit too much to ask imo.
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races are not run on paper G1
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at least you told us before royal ascot.
now gonna have to re adjust my speed figures to turf instead ffs |
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Yes I looked at both races and the distances between them. Consort looked a class above them at Sandown and was not extended has aparently grown plenty(2/3yrs) and has 'gone forward' since then. He's taking on a double 2000 winner I know but at 13/2, until he's beat I'll be with him.
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Golden Horn the only horse in training who would have a chance against Consort.
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So you're already with Consort for tomorrow ? How long has this been the case: as I have only this last week joined the forum.
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At 10-1 I could see where you're coming from but at current odds he's already priced up like he's a Group One horse, imho...
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for good reason imnsho
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I can't dispute your logic but sometimes it's a combination of gead and heart. I had, for me, a sizable bet at Sandown and 2f out thought Moore had blown it. The way he won (yes it takes a leap of faith to some extent) was just very impressive with bundles of improvment to come.
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both times of consort were slow........
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Group races are just as likely to be run at sedate pace as any. Small fieled tomorrow and 70TP in a listed race (only his 2nd race)with his head in his chest.
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he beat rubbish in a slow time and is only 6\1.........with those doubts i would want double figures
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Belardo on the other hand, who has shown that he is a Group One horse, is five times the price...
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for good reason
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if a lesser trainer had consort it would be 12 or 14\1
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Was 12/1 for ages after Sandown, the shrewdies are on.
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the form of the Sandown race is irrelevant to me, I already knew what he was, you will see a very different animal again tomorrow, will leave that last run well behind
I thought the Tercentenary was the right race for him but the fact he runs here I think speaks volumes considering the trainer and thats why he is the price he is there is no possible reason to think Belardo can beat Gleneagles on fast ground, thats why he is the price he is, he is exposed in the context of the race |
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I should add, at the start of the season I backed Consort for the Guineas at 33/1, he was my Guineas horse since he won his maiden so hes always been up to this level in my book, he had a setback and missed the race and the chance to achieve worthwhile form, he apparently only started coming to hand not long before Sandown and thats why I suspect you will see a different horse again tomorrow
he should be much sharper physically and mentally and if his work was not backing that up I think he would running in the 1m2 G3, of course he has it to do on paper having only run in a listed race and taking on the winners of the English, French and Irish Guineas, but if there is a better unexposed candidate to take them on I have not seen it tomorrow we will find out exactly what he is |
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Oneyaallbeenwaiting4, Dewhurst winner beaten less than two lengths in the Irish 2000 Guineas at 33-1, or Listed and maiden winner having his third ever race in a Group One at 13-2, is a no contest in terms of where the value is, imho...
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he beat 5 horses rated 100+. Horses that had ran in G1's and 2's. He beat them despite a questionable ride by Moore and he beat them without extending himself in any real way. You can argue the point of price I accept that but to say he beat rubbish is frankly absurd.
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If that's for me, I didn't say that enpassant.
I think he's probably very good and likely to be up to this class, but at the prices, which is ultimately the ONLY thing that matters, he's pretty poor value against a Dewhurst winner and two Guineas winners, imho... |
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I backed the Dewhurst winner in the Dewhurst, not many did, but I wouldnt back him at any price tomorrow, not saying it cant happen but if it does there wont be a decent reason to explain it, imo for something to be value there has to be a reason for it possibly winning, could understand maybe if it had come up soft ground but seems to me the only way Belardo can win is if the fav does not run his race and thats before you even take Consort and Make Believe into consideration and I think the betting reflects that
his form is obviously not too far away but its far enough away when talking about a Group 1 and id rather play Latharnach at 50/1 because ive always rated him, the ground is right for him and he has not yet been exposed by the favourite |
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he beat secret brief whose been beaten at epsom since and the cumani horse who was well beaten in his 2 previous starts at higher level.....hardly world beaters
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room key the 4th was just over 4l behind was 14l behind gleneagles
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what if Room Key came on for his first run of the season, what if Consort was value for a lot more than the bare form and what if he comes on again a for what was only the second run of of his life and his first after a setback
too many variables and possibilities to just read racing off paper Gleneagles is the one to beat but he wont be beating Consort 10L, dont worry about that |
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enpasse.....struggling to see the good horses he beat....personally i dont think gleneagles is that special but he may not after to be.....if you are backing consort you are backing the trainer because what its done on the racetrack needs improving.....thats not saying he cant
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if you are backing Consort you are backing potential, maybe the best since Kingman
13/2 could look the bet of the century |
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It's certainly credible to crab there bare form in terms of G1. Those horse though have competed at group level and Consort looked in a different league to them.
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13/2 is poor poor value for inexperienced listed race winner against an improving dual guineas winner , and the rest are no mugs either
I may be totally wrong but the stoute yard doesn't have anything near the quality of previous years in general and I think is running with hope rather than expectation , I don't doubt the horse is quality but 6s is terrible value , if this was trained by lesser than stoutey it would be 16s 20s |
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8's into 5'WH & Lad someone thought the odds were ok. The argument about it being SMS and not a 'lesser trainer': Stoute (and highclere) have classy animals to gallop with and choose from and hence where to enter them.
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bit anorakish but there is also a line through Integral that gives Solow the clear beating of N.O.T.
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*Solow thread
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you may be right enpassant and if you back it I hope you are
The price just looks very skinny on achievement and experience , I wont play on this one I don't think just enjoy it |