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06 Jun 15
19:22
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Date Joined:
09 Mar 04
Can American Pharaoh get it done?
The last horse to complete the triple crown was Affirmed in 1978 and you can see a neat video of it here ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9DidbmwH5U
It’s one of my favs on youtube (that music…so 80s)
Anyways in my opinion, like Golden Horn today he's probably just a bit better than this lot....in time perhaps someone like Frosted can mature into a more formidable opponent (like in the Classic) but I suspect AP will have his measure tonight.
A lot has been made of the fact that AP isn't bred for a mile and half but the reality is that none of the horses racing in the Belmont tonight were bred with the intention of EVER participating in a mile and half race (unlike say Coolmore and their horses bred for a mile and half on the turf).
So I don't think the distance is the issue tonight because they will all be pretty much in the same boat and I'd like to think if you actually had one in here that was guaranteed to get the mile and half then he's probably too slow to win this.
Of greater concern is that this will be his 4th big race in 7 weeks (Arkansas Derby, Kentucky, Preakness and now the Belmont) whereas other horses have a break and come here cherry ripe and they'll need to be if they're to topple AP). Horses aren’t machines but he might just the necessary class to get the job done tonight and I wouldn’t put anyone off of backing him at Evens.
However there’s one horse in here I can’t resist taking a shot with and it’s Mubtaahij.
I suppose everything has its price and 16/1 each way feels like a solid enough play.
I just feel he’s one whose going to improve massively from Kentucky where he had no chance with Christophe Soumillon on his back and from his low draw where he was always going to find the whole big field Derby experience too much for him. Also he didn’t have the best of build ups to the Derby…the travelling, the quarantine, the feed issue and having to train at Arlington all hampered his chances. During the race he just didn’t handle the surface well enough and he never switched his leads.
But all of this will change tonight…he’s been in Belmont for a while and loving life with hot shot Irad Ortiz Jr on board. I’ve got plenty of time for Irad…I saw him last night winning the Belmont Gold Cup over 2miles with a very smart tactical ride and from what I’ve heard Mubtaahij has responded very well switch of jockey. He’ll also be more at home in this much smaller field.
The surface will be another plus too…Belmont will feel more like Meydan with its sandier composition. I think back to the UAE Derby and how smooth and silky he looked on that surface and I feel we can see a really good performance from him tonight at Belmont.
Also I think he has a very nice mix of speed and stamina which will see him go close….his dam was placed over 12f in France and for as good as Dubawi was over a mile he did place in a Derby so I suspect a mile and half in this spot against other non stayers should be within reach. I mean if he ran in a 12f in Europe he’ll be absolutely tailed off but against this lot he’s got a chance.
I think win or lose….16/1 each way is a good bet…..
The last horse to complete the triple crown was Affirmed in 1978 and you can see a neat video of it here ---> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9DidbmwH5U
It’s one of my favs on youtube (that music…so 80s)
Anyways in my opinion, like Golden Horn today he's probably just a bit better than this lot....in time perhaps someone like Frosted can mature into a more formidable opponent (like in the Classic) but I suspect AP will have his measure tonight.
A lot has been made of the fact that AP isn't bred for a mile and half but the reality is that none of the horses racing in the Belmont tonight were bred with the intention of EVER participating in a mile and half race (unlike say Coolmore and their horses bred for a mile and half on the turf).
So I don't think the distance is the issue tonight because they will all be pretty much in the same boat and I'd like to think if you actually had one in here that was guaranteed to get the mile and half then he's probably too slow to win this.
Of greater concern is that this will be his 4th big race in 7 weeks (Arkansas Derby, Kentucky, Preakness and now the Belmont) whereas other horses have a break and come here cherry ripe and they'll need to be if they're to topple AP). Horses aren’t machines but he might just the necessary class to get the job done tonight and I wouldn’t put anyone off of backing him at Evens.
However there’s one horse in here I can’t resist taking a shot with and it’s Mubtaahij.
I suppose everything has its price and 16/1 each way feels like a solid enough play.
I just feel he’s one whose going to improve massively from Kentucky where he had no chance with Christophe Soumillon on his back and from his low draw where he was always going to find the whole big field Derby experience too much for him. Also he didn’t have the best of build ups to the Derby…the travelling, the quarantine, the feed issue and having to train at Arlington all hampered his chances. During the race he just didn’t handle the surface well enough and he never switched his leads.
But all of this will change tonight…he’s been in Belmont for a while and loving life with hot shot Irad Ortiz Jr on board. I’ve got plenty of time for Irad…I saw him last night winning the Belmont Gold Cup over 2miles with a very smart tactical ride and from what I’ve heard Mubtaahij has responded very well switch of jockey. He’ll also be more at home in this much smaller field.
The surface will be another plus too…Belmont will feel more like Meydan with its sandier composition. I think back to the UAE Derby and how smooth and silky he looked on that surface and I feel we can see a really good performance from him tonight at Belmont.
Also I think he has a very nice mix of speed and stamina which will see him go close….his dam was placed over 12f in France and for as good as Dubawi was over a mile he did place in a Derby so I suspect a mile and half in this spot against other non stayers should be within reach. I mean if he ran in a 12f in Europe he’ll be absolutely tailed off but against this lot he’s got a chance.
I think win or lose….16/1 each way is a good bet…..
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I take it we can watch it free through BF Video as there's a market on here for it?
what time (UK) is the race?
I have had a look at the card, and not one horse looks comfortable at 1m 4 furlong. I might take American Pharoah on.
I have had a look at the card, and not one horse looks comfortable at 1m 4 furlong. I might take American Pharoah on.
many have tried - many have failed
4/5 is a LAY all day
end of
4/5 is a LAY all day
end of
This will be his coronation and immortality awaits. The greatest horse America has seen in a generation.
1.9 seems a fair price against horses he has at least 3 lengths in hand of, i know it is over 2f more but he has not been stopping in any of his races, think he will win by more tonight.
American Pharoah is the one, he will deliver
Keen Ice the danger
Keen Ice the danger
Triple Crown on the way imo , he was not stopping at all in the Preakness .
Was pretty impressed with Frosted towards the end of the KD. Think he'll go well with the extra distance and rest, and will be backing him to place and win.
I won't be unhappy if AP wins though. Brilliant horse, and it would be nice to see the 37 year streak come to an end.
I won't be unhappy if AP wins though. Brilliant horse, and it would be nice to see the 37 year streak come to an end.
You need a lot of stamina to win at12f on dirt but this horse probably has it.
Materiality 115
American Pharoah 111
Frosted 107
Madefromlucky 106
Tale of Verve 101
Frammento 99
Keen Ice 99
Mubtaahij (IRE) 98
GL
American Pharoah 111
Frosted 107
Madefromlucky 106
Tale of Verve 101
Frammento 99
Keen Ice 99
Mubtaahij (IRE) 98
GL
It will take a very good horse to beat it.
currently 1.9 and should go off shorter.
currently 1.9 and should go off shorter.
dangers frosted, mubtaahij, maybe keen ice but only if fav dies in the last furlong
will box those 3 in f/cs in the hope it does but not confident
will box those 3 in f/cs in the hope it does but not confident
Materiality has a good chance if he sits well back and looks to honk a tiring AP in the final furlongs. Problem is, in his first three starts he tried to do it from the front. I just can't see him pulling that off. That's why I think the race sets up pretty well for Frosted.
Mubtaahij's got to overcome the UAE curse. That race tends to wreck horses, at least for the next few months.
Mubtaahij's got to overcome the UAE curse. That race tends to wreck horses, at least for the next few months.
Wrong jock on Materiality last start .Reunited with his proper rider today .
US tv coverage is even worse than Uks......sob story after sob story about how "Insert Name Here" has dragged himself up from the bottom etc...
Frosted for me, was impressed when he won at Aqueduct, then ran a stormer in the KD and looks like the extra mileage will suit him more than most in the field.
they will try to lock the fav up in a pace battle to get it beat....will play a few of the rags as this trip is so alien to these...
AMERICAN PHARAOH almost evens....surely cant win ...
Keen ice for me ...small play RFC with the fav
Keen ice for me ...small play RFC with the fav
like American Racing ,Remember Arazi winning the 2yo race and started to take an interest ,much prefer it to UK racing and will prob only concentrate on it in the coming years
very hard to win a Triple and have no idea what will win here Backed Frosted a place taken 1-2-6 in the exacta
very hard to win a Triple and have no idea what will win here Backed Frosted a place taken 1-2-6 in the exacta
Belmont (US) 6th Jun - 23:50 R11 1m4f Grd1
Matched: GBP 867,667
No 'In-Running' - to get it up to the Million.
Matched: GBP 867,667
No 'In-Running' - to get it up to the Million.
absolutely hosed in
looks like he would stay 1m 6f
didn't look like he even pushed him out.
looks like he would stay 1m 6f
didn't look like he even pushed him out.
Great performance to win those 3 races in such a short period.
machine, knew he was the one, knew before the derby
^ Are they going to run that race - HALF on DIRT - and HALF on TURF?
I don't believe they would onlooker.
you can always ask them, why not give them a call.
numbnuts.
you can always ask them, why not give them a call.
numbnuts.
So how good were the other horses in that? Using the dekock runner as a yardstick it has now been beaten roughly the same both times by AP (9ish lengths) and he is rated 115. I'm not crabbing him but don't have a handle on the U.S form so wandered how good the others are - and so how good the form is irrespective of the TC?
Really enjoyed watching that and it felt like being back in the 70's - anyone transported forward in time for a few minutes to view that could have been kidded in believing that nothing had changed and the sport was still thriving - but by God racing has fallen a tier or two since 1978, so, so much has happened in between.
ZEALOT 06 Jun 15 20:15
many have tried - many have failed
4/5 is a LAY all day
end of
many have tried - many have failed
4/5 is a LAY all day
end of
Cunners was a **** for avin a go at the ride last time imo
he dont understand the Triple and what you need and how hard it is ,that was pure class and am in shock
he dont understand the Triple and what you need and how hard it is ,that was pure class and am in shock
I hope they don't rush to retirement.
He has made history and that can't be taken away .
It would be marvellous if he were to race outside the US and galvanise the sport and maybe even add further lustre to his reputation in the process. This is a horse apart and should be savoured to the full.
He has made history and that can't be taken away .
It would be marvellous if he were to race outside the US and galvanise the sport and maybe even add further lustre to his reputation in the process. This is a horse apart and should be savoured to the full.
Considering his sheer superiority over this lot you'd imagine it's straight to the Travers and then maybe something like the Pacific Classic to test the BC Classic waters vs the older horses like Shared Belief and California Chrome.
Fantastic horse. Not sure there was massive quality behind him, but still very impressive. He made all three legs look so easy. Plus I got good cash on Frosted placing!! 
Would be great to see him come back as a four-year-old and try to do a Curlin'.
Cali Chrome and Shared Belief not in the same class.
Belmont stakes
5 American Pharoah 3/5
6 Frosted 4/1
7 keen Ice 17/1
1 Mubtaahij
just one thing to add ,they do a supertrifecta they don a 10 cent and a $2 doller the 10 cent paid $28 ,thats about a 7p stake ,the $2 doller super paid $570
think UK racing needs a decent exotic ,a super would be a great bet here imo ,used to enjoy my pool betting but lost the will after the nanny was kidnapped .
The exacta used to such a great bet ,but sadly had its throat cut
Bring back decent pool betting imo ...a super is needed ,come on BF get the toat and get the show on the road
5 American Pharoah 3/5
6 Frosted 4/1
7 keen Ice 17/1
1 Mubtaahij
just one thing to add ,they do a supertrifecta they don a 10 cent and a $2 doller the 10 cent paid $28 ,thats about a 7p stake ,the $2 doller super paid $570
think UK racing needs a decent exotic ,a super would be a great bet here imo ,used to enjoy my pool betting but lost the will after the nanny was kidnapped .
The exacta used to such a great bet ,but sadly had its throat cut
Bring back decent pool betting imo ...a super is needed ,come on BF get the toat and get the show on the road
Johnny_Mustang
"This will be his coronation and immortality awaits. The greatest horse America has seen in a generation."
As I mentioned previously. Interesting comparison with Epsom Derby where both winners were bred by their owners. And Godolphin runner up in both races too.
"This will be his coronation and immortality awaits. The greatest horse America has seen in a generation."
As I mentioned previously. Interesting comparison with Epsom Derby where both winners were bred by their owners. And Godolphin runner up in both races too.
Fantastic day for racing , the Bookmakers not happy chaps this morning, bailout needed.
lost money laying it but a class horse with a great engine
trotted up
great to see but i wonder about the calibre of what he beat but at the end of the day you can only beat what turns up
how 'good' was the opposition that the other greats beat to win their TCs?
anyhow whether he can repeat the dose in the Arc & Melbourne Cup is moot
oh and by the way the win had nowt to do with horse,jockey,trainer nor breeder
was all down to Teflon Bill being at the track
yanks DO love a winner tho'..GL to them
trotted up
great to see but i wonder about the calibre of what he beat but at the end of the day you can only beat what turns up
how 'good' was the opposition that the other greats beat to win their TCs?
anyhow whether he can repeat the dose in the Arc & Melbourne Cup is moot
oh and by the way the win had nowt to do with horse,jockey,trainer nor breeder
was all down to Teflon Bill being at the track
yanks DO love a winner tho'..GL to them
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