Storm Of Swords

the loon's methodology strikes again. for me mate StridingEdge.

yes patterns exist in the favs winning or losing races

this is why you layed 14 in a row a few weeks back when your own system was dictating you should start backing them

start a thread saying this one must win cos so many favs have lost

then you said you'd actually layed it and the ones before

next race ditto

then eventually a fav wins and you claim you can predict it ROFL

I predicted the 1:50-Market-Rasen outcome just fine thanks.

i've just looked at the results and last night the last fav won and today the first one won.

are you saying you based your prediction on 2 winning successive favs ?

not telling you.

you make it up as you go along

i've got no problem with your selections, would actually congratulate you with the lays or backs.

but this i predicted it cos a few favs won or lost is ludicrous in the extreme to anyone that knows anything about statistics.

Fair enough. Oh Land Abloom will lose as well.

this isn't even the system you put up on here anymore

I didnt put up a system. just said what would lose and why.
If I put up the 'system' you'd blow a fuse. LOL

btw I was right again wasnt eye.

oh i see so you are not putting up your system bets anymore thats fine

wd on the l2 lays that dont even make up 1 pt profit yet at level stakes

proves everything

*2 lays

yes it does. ta.

ok. put up 2 lays yer self now then.

i've put 1 up today at 2.24

i'm not claiming a genius system with flawed logic

and i can't find a lay at the drop of a hat like you

you genius lex

If you was nice to me I would show you how it works.


But thanks mate. appreciated.

I get by fine on my own thanks Lex

so you have yet another system you are using today

brilliant

think i may have worked it out already

dont think you have any more fav lays till the 4:10 at Market Rasen

Arod. 2:35-Epsom. will layit in the run at 2.5 if I can.

(its a method not a system based on the favs winning cycle - 'The Wiggins' )

damn those stats still; Martin Gale will kick in in a minute to give you a laff.

click click

3 winning favs but bookies still allowing the 4th to drift at catterick


where's this manipulation or does this only kick in after 4 or 5 on the spin?

seriously, its at this time I need to see what happens, as its on the cusp of regressing.
if Destalink wins then the next fav should lose.
But I lay them all with the aim of liability less than ISP. I just see how the cycle pans out.
Currently to swing the other way we need 7 favs to lose but not necessarily consecutively.
Ok, sounds complicated or bonkers. But it runs like clockwork.

ok, the fav lost and the cycle is now against the favs. But we shall see eh.
I aint got a crystal ball, its just how me troosers hang.

the fav 3:35-Market-Rasen should be about 3/1 but its about 11/10. Thats manipultation. eg waaay too short. It maybe clever money, but not all of it.

I'll lay it at 1.9

why in this race is there manipulation and not the last race makes NO SENSE

the last race with your thinking should have seen manipulation but if anything the reverse was the case and fav allowed to drift.

now the last fav lost but you think this one has now been manipulated too short?

some favs are just over bet or perhaps this is a good thing, nothing to do with patterns LEX

you keep trying to tie in logic that really isn't there

bookies can't choose which favs win or lose

the next fav looks too short to me

but its nowt to do with recent patterns of past favs winning or losing

no they change the prices. watch the flip floppers for example.
A few shorties with minimum liability followed by bigger priced losers. See the average fav ISP to see how the markets are shaping up.
anways, lets see how it pans out...

if they change the prices willy nilly to try and fit patterns

they will get hammered trust me

No, thats the point - they are making the patterns not the results.
take this 3:45-Epsom. if the fav loses could you say what would win? unbalanced market with the fav too short limiting the liability

they are making the patterns not the results.

you know what I'm trying to say. the favs tide is now turning...

so we should have lots of successful lays now lex below the average ISP of favs?

how many races would you expect this to last now?

same with this 4:00-Catterick. fav should be 3/1 > 5/2 not evens

I think we should get a run of losing favs now.

fav does look plenty short enough, granted, i said the epsom one was too.

BUT

this isn't because we had a few favs win earlier through any manipulation

the easterbys have landed 3 or 4 gambles in the past week already

probably a lot of sheep on just cos of that!

yes it is. the bookies are balancing the books. so its shorter than it should be.

sure it may win but its not in anyway 'value'. By coincidence this is fitting in with your favs 4:10 at Market Rasen comment.

what are they pummelling it on betfair too?

the bookies react to money they dont form the markets these days

I define value as a price better than (backing) or worse than (laying) its statistical chance.

as is obvious in the early markets these days!

another easterby punt landed

yup. but at bad odds, unless youre laying

these markets have been formed early

before the bookies new anything about todays earlier races results!

the next race (market rasen) i said you would lay the fav over an hour ago

it looks too short


again nothing to do with patterns though

so you think the ISP of Breakable at evens was fair? I dont - should have been no less than 9/4

if only it was this easy LEX

everyone and his dog would have been all over it

LEX

the only thing that would determine whether that horse was the right price would be your long term P&L

unfortunately we can never know for sure individual prices ant their merits

It is this easy. But you cant make the horse drink from the trough after dragging it there

i would think that tim or mick easterby have more of a clue than me on their hcp horses

they've had 4 or 5 now well punted recent winners

were they all too short?

7/13 favs today average ISP 2.5
The average long term ISP is 2.75


yes I believe they were.

thats opinion though, based on form etc. I dont do form cos I'm useless at it.

there's a lot of very intelligent people that would have analysed systems and patterns in the finest statistical detail imaginable,

There is no easy lunch, each horse on it's own merits i'm afraid.

I actually learned this the hard way when i first started (2004) going against patterns that couldn't possibly happen and they did.

some days you will have more stronger favs than others


why is this hard to believe?

some jumps cards have favs no bigger than 5/2 through the card

and many races odds on favs

We'll this Grandad has been doing it since the  1980's and have the results going back since Mohamed bought the racing post.

before betfair the bookies might have been able to manipulate more

they certainly can't these days

they are often clueless what's going on, particularly in these low grade races

they are followers not manipulators

another short fav this the back of the net

you certainly aint telling me this oaks market will be manipulated to get the pattern back on track!

I dont think I can tell you anything tbh.
tonights racing will be interesting. 
We shall no doubt resume this conversation later.
Thanks for the chat. I need to get on now.

click click again

another fav goes in at catterick after some respite at epsom when the fav was done by the complete rag

I suspect you will come back later lEX and a couple of lays around 3.0 will prove the logic even though in the mean time losses were incurred earlier.

like I say, tonight will be interesting. 56% favs so far today.

this RESET has not happened lex

al bandar and glenns wobbly

SEND MORE MONEY system going well

no hasnt happened yet. Still, its giving you some entertainment.
12/25 favs.

what gave me the entertainment was when you come on here calling for me after laying a couple of favs as if this were some sort of proof pal

of course the pattern, sequence or whatever you want to call it will change and there will be spells of the favs not winning many races.

in the meantime the losses have been incurred and plenty of lays needed just to get back even!

certainly quite a few losing favs are required.
But the change in sequence always puts it right for layers, which is the point I'm not getting across. Pal.

12/27 now. soon changes.

you won't get it across because it's b0ll0x

you were saying it changes hours ago

just like a few weeks back

then inevitably it changes and you claim you are a genius

ok. GL to you Striding.