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Class 5 Handicap over 6 furlongs at Nottingham. Ground will likely be on the soft side.
Point Worth is favourite. He was very keen LTO over minimum distance at Beverley before cutting through them late on. Ground was on the soft-side that day so that won’t prove an issue. However, he’s gone up 5 pounds for that performance and the step up to 6 furlongs doesn’t look ideal in a more competitive race.
Gold Club was quite keen lately on average run 7 furlongs at Doncaster (ground was good, g/s in places). Step down in trip will suit as he just weakened late on. Dropped a single pound for that victory which looks very fair given the winner is now rated over a stone higher. Shortlist.
Fantasy Justifier – Same mark as when 5th at Goodwood latest (going good-to-soft, possibly softer). This animal has plenty of speed and will likely vie for the lead. He can be quite a keen going sort and may be best over the minimum trip, but he ran very well latest when leading from the front at a strong clip and just weakening into 5th late on. He was probably the second best horse that day and, although the form has yet to be tested, it looked a competitive race. Shortlist.
Borough Boy – Same mark was when 5th at Nottingham over 6 furlongs (good-to-soft). This horse travels quite well but never looks 100% straightforward none more so than when racing awkwardly LTO. He’ll need a strong pace to aim at here but is fairly handicapped and this is a definite step down from the Class 4 race he ran in latest. Shortlist.
Prince Royal – Dropped down to a mark of 66 with Patrick O’Donnell taking off a further 7. Ran very well in a strong Classified Stakes latest. 1st and 2nd have both since ran well off marks of 90 & 79 respectively and PR wasn’t far off them at all particularly given they both got the run of the race being held up (although it’s important to note he received 6 and 11 pounds from the front two). This horse is another good traveller but should be putting its best work in at the finish. He looks potentially well handicapped off an effective 59 and, in practical terms at least, this is a step down from the Classified Race at Windsor. Shortlist.
By Rights – Trailblazer who’ll help ensure a fair gallop but first run of the season, up in trip and doesn’t scream well-handicapped. Swerve.
Other 3 look out of their depth.
Pace angle? By Rights and Fantasy Justifier are likely to ensure the gallop is a decent one. Prince Royal and Gold Club will likely be prominent.
Conclusions?
This looks a tough race with 4 on the shortlist. FJ will have competition for the lead and given how keen he is, we’ll leave him alone. Gold Club should get the race run to suit and will be thereabouts as will Prince Royal who could arguably be the best handicapped of the lot and I wouldn't put you off backing him. However, I’m going with Borough Boy who’ll get a good pace to help it settle, is down in class, on a fair mark and will handle the ground well. He should go close here and is my bet @ 7/1 each-way.
GL
Point Worth is favourite. He was very keen LTO over minimum distance at Beverley before cutting through them late on. Ground was on the soft-side that day so that won’t prove an issue. However, he’s gone up 5 pounds for that performance and the step up to 6 furlongs doesn’t look ideal in a more competitive race.
Gold Club was quite keen lately on average run 7 furlongs at Doncaster (ground was good, g/s in places). Step down in trip will suit as he just weakened late on. Dropped a single pound for that victory which looks very fair given the winner is now rated over a stone higher. Shortlist.
Fantasy Justifier – Same mark as when 5th at Goodwood latest (going good-to-soft, possibly softer). This animal has plenty of speed and will likely vie for the lead. He can be quite a keen going sort and may be best over the minimum trip, but he ran very well latest when leading from the front at a strong clip and just weakening into 5th late on. He was probably the second best horse that day and, although the form has yet to be tested, it looked a competitive race. Shortlist.
Borough Boy – Same mark was when 5th at Nottingham over 6 furlongs (good-to-soft). This horse travels quite well but never looks 100% straightforward none more so than when racing awkwardly LTO. He’ll need a strong pace to aim at here but is fairly handicapped and this is a definite step down from the Class 4 race he ran in latest. Shortlist.
Prince Royal – Dropped down to a mark of 66 with Patrick O’Donnell taking off a further 7. Ran very well in a strong Classified Stakes latest. 1st and 2nd have both since ran well off marks of 90 & 79 respectively and PR wasn’t far off them at all particularly given they both got the run of the race being held up (although it’s important to note he received 6 and 11 pounds from the front two). This horse is another good traveller but should be putting its best work in at the finish. He looks potentially well handicapped off an effective 59 and, in practical terms at least, this is a step down from the Classified Race at Windsor. Shortlist.
By Rights – Trailblazer who’ll help ensure a fair gallop but first run of the season, up in trip and doesn’t scream well-handicapped. Swerve.
Other 3 look out of their depth.
Pace angle? By Rights and Fantasy Justifier are likely to ensure the gallop is a decent one. Prince Royal and Gold Club will likely be prominent.
Conclusions?
This looks a tough race with 4 on the shortlist. FJ will have competition for the lead and given how keen he is, we’ll leave him alone. Gold Club should get the race run to suit and will be thereabouts as will Prince Royal who could arguably be the best handicapped of the lot and I wouldn't put you off backing him. However, I’m going with Borough Boy who’ll get a good pace to help it settle, is down in class, on a fair mark and will handle the ground well. He should go close here and is my bet @ 7/1 each-way.
GL
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...thats very good TR.....from you,re own anyalysis I would make LAY of Point North the simplest bet.....
I nearly put up Supersta as my 'out of the ballpark' guess today, but at just into double figures, not the odds I was hoping for!
The case rests on that run at Haydock last season, when he was a bit of an eye-catcher to say the least under Catlin, and caught the eye of the stewards too. The race worked out very well with a few subsequent decent handicap winners coming out of it.
This will be the first time he's been on similar ground since.
He's had a few chances since, on one occasion looking like he wasn't going to come out of the stalls at Goodwood, but he has run a couple of OK races since on the AW.
Now 6lb lower than at Haydock, interesting to see what he can under similar conditions for the first time since.
The case rests on that run at Haydock last season, when he was a bit of an eye-catcher to say the least under Catlin, and caught the eye of the stewards too. The race worked out very well with a few subsequent decent handicap winners coming out of it.
This will be the first time he's been on similar ground since.
He's had a few chances since, on one occasion looking like he wasn't going to come out of the stalls at Goodwood, but he has run a couple of OK races since on the AW.
Now 6lb lower than at Haydock, interesting to see what he can under similar conditions for the first time since.
Best of luck trying to sort out a class 5 handicap. That is the sort of race I avoid.
low grade sprint handicaps = gettable big priced winners if you put the effort in
hth
hth
Good call on Supersta George; been smashed in.
My one well-backed too - into 5/1 now.
Be lucky guys
My one well-backed too - into 5/1 now.
Be lucky guys
Point North my second best of the day
Won this race nicely a few years ago as a 6yo
Won this race nicely a few years ago as a 6yo
i did Supersta 3rd place and 4th place mkts. What a rip.
point north 3.5 to 8.5 loses 5 lengths in the stalls
There is a winner to be found in every race but I find that in novice/maidens you can usually narrow it down to 3 or 4 which makes life easier for lazy types like me.
you've really got to be sure, as they are often some very short prices you are taking
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