Giovanni Canaletto derby

Unless they come for something else on the day. Is the current money due to Ryan choosing to ride GC, catching pigeons on the Ballydoyle gallops, or the way he finished in the Gallinule to almost catch the 93-rated filly Curvy, who'd previously won a couple of handicaps? (Actually, I'm guessing it wasn't the Gallinule.)

And I'm not just sore because I missed the price.

It looks like Coolmore have been scratching around for credible runners in the Derby.

I've just watched the Dante recording again and Golden Horn was impressive so that's where my money will be going. I may also have an interest in the French runner Epicuris.

Epicuris is only running at Epsom because connections did not think he'd enter the stalls at Chantilly. For me, that makes him one to back (or not) at the last minute, not ante-post.

I like Success Days think he will lead so it could be possible to get out at a much lower
price he may hang on if his stamina holds but its a big but.

Golden Horn won't stay. Not a chance.

Ramruna,

Agreed re-Epicuris.

I never back ante-post now. In my formative betting years I used to do ante-post bets for Cheltenham, my selections were invariably non-runners or a better price on the day.

Johnny,

There was nothing in the Dante run which said to me Golden Horn wouldn't stay, but, good luck if you oppose it.

Thanks Holywell. I know pedigrees are far from an exact science but Golden Horn just doesn't have the requisite stamina for me. Yes, his Dante run was impressive but I can see him petering out at the one pole. Good luck with your bet, am happy to be proved wrong as I probably won't have a bet and therefore no financial interest.

dont bother with form, just ryan,oaks , derby.

wait for the draw though?

Absolute ridiculous price down to the 'Ryan' factor!

This horse need to find nigh on 20lb to even get level with Golden Horn, and IMO Hans Holbien will be the first AOB horse to finish!

the price for giovani Canaletto now may look a bit stingy on what he has so far achieved ,but what is highly significant is the amount of money for it over the last few days ,this mob don't throw their money into the wind and their was a similar amount of money in a short space of time for Gleneagles for the English guineas and that move was justified  , must have shown something at home ? they know their  swans from their geese!, and for what its worth  my money will be going on this one !

Looked a tricky ride to me last time out,Head all over the shop and didn't look like he was in love with the game,
place lay,Will be tailed off.

mugs bet...they havent got one this year, it happens

You are correct,Cheltenham.High head carriage--can't have it.

Backed him at 20/1 before the season started, backed him again at 25s after he got beat in Ireland, always had him as Ballydoyles best chance.

Head carriage is a big worry after last time, but he has a lot of potential and is one of the few decent animals in the race who will definitely stay. He showed a lot of quality in defeat last time but I know not everyone can see that.

Golden Horn is the best horse in the race and if he stays he wins but id want at the very least 5/2, hopefully 3/1, I expect the stamina doubt to be factored into the price on the day.

I think Duncan is correct. If Ballydoyle entered five three legged donkeys, whatever one Moore ended up on would be punted to 6/1. Its a fact of life.

100% Correct ^^
The Ballydoyle fan boys would back a Cart Horse if it ran in the Coolmore Colours.

If Ryan Moore is running and carrying Giovanni Canaletto then 8/1 is a fair price.

the money wernt far wrong for Gleneagles

i,m probably talking bollocks [again],but once they,ve turned up on the day isnt the non staying thing old hat,what were the last few well fancied horses that palabley bombed out through lack of stamina,[ cue a deluge of names,]

all I am saying is it was significant money not peanuts ! I would not want to be a layer !

his form is light years away from classic form though.......can he really improve that much in a couple of weeks...........it has a lovely pedigree but surely if you havent got double figures at the very least its too late now

i looked at backing  it purely on pedigree when it was 24 or 25 on here but i didnt........but i wouldnt dream of backing it in single figures

Listen

brother to ruler of the world

True Story, Dawn Approach, Carlton House, Bullet Train, Dubawi all fancied non-stayers in recent yrs

yeh dawn approach pulled like a good,un,never seen a horse in a derby pull like that

the fav has some close relatives who do stay..........think its probably slightly odds on he stays

who knows ( other than connections ) may be the horse has shown something in the last week or so at home working with a decent yardstick,all speculation as we know feck all about what goes on  but the form of the others is hardly earth shattering, fav has a doubt at trip, jack hobbs  had his bubble burst ,Giovanni may not have to find as much as it appears " have not backed it yet  but will wait till day of race !

dont think jack hobbs is certain to stay either.....

think if elm park wins it will be an all time low for breeding..hans holbein would want it much softer and thats unlikely

just saying and am wrong far more times than right but that money must be significant ,cant see connections (stable staff those in the know )wanting to get grands on just because ryan moore has chosen to ride it ,gotta be something more in it imo !

foyle........your backing it on the stable and pedigree rather what its shown on the track..........it might well have shown something at home but it could also be desperation....think moore riding him instead of the other 2 may just be hobsons choice

foyle.......certain to improve for the step up..........wouldnt be the first horse from that stable to improve tons from his first run......think its one for the placepot

This horse was well down Coolmore's Derby pecking order 4 weeks ago,Can't just suddenly have grown a set of wings.
Wouldn't be even running if JFK and OMR had ran up to scratch.

cardiff you are correct i am backing it on stable pedigree and the money that has come for it , this mob more than any other know what it takes to win the race ,may not have grown a set of wings but may not need em to beat this lot ,we will see you pays ya money you take your chance ,i will have a score or pony on it whatever ,good luck all

agree this doesnt look a strong race

it must be a strong race,what higher rated 14 furlong horses are missing,previous years derby dont have a bearing on your punting, just comparisons post race

3yolds look a poor bunch therefore something unexposed could come forward

Agree with you Cardiff. If Elm Park or Jack Hobbs wins, Tesio will be turning in his grave.

1st time poster
i,m probably talking bollocks [again],but once they,ve turned up on the day isnt the non staying thing old hat,what were the last few well fancied horses that palabley bombed out through lack of stamina,[ cue a deluge of names,]

deluge of names ... all were favourites

1978_Inkerman____________4/1_[was 21 of 25]
1980_Nikoli_______________4/1_[was 8 of 24]
1990_Razeen______________9/2_[was 14 of 18]
1992_Rodrigo de Triano___13/2_[was 9 of 18]
1993_Tenby_______________4/5_[was 10 of 16]
1995_Pennekamp_________11/8_[was 11 of 15]
1997_Entrepreneur________4/6_[was 4 of 13]
1998_Cape Verdi_________11/4_[was 9 of 15]
1999_Dubai Millennium____5/1_[was 9 of 16]
2002_Hawk Wing__________9/4_[was 2 of 12]
2003_Refuse To Bend______11/4_[was 13 of 20]
2004_Snow Ridge__________7/2_[was 7 of 14]
2006_Visindar_____________2/1_[was 5 of 18]
2013_Dawn Approach______5/4_[was 12 of 12]

Mister Baileys 1994?

wollow 70s

hawk wing was a miler this years fav already won over 10 f plus,tenby never went a yard nothing to do with stamina, interesting list though off short priced horses well beaten,i suppose its a matter of opinion whether they got beat for lack of stamina though, i was thinking mr bailys type blowout,probably the sort of blow out we might have got if gleneagles had turned up

Other favourites who bombed

1951_Ki Ming______________9/1_[was 24 of 33]
1953_Premonition__________5/1_[was 25 of 27]
1954_Rowston Manor_______5/1_[was 7 of 22]
1954_Ferriol_______________5/1_[was 11 of 22]
1958_Wallaby______________4/1_[was 19 of 20]
1961_Moutiers______________5/1_[was 25 of 28]
1966_Right Noble____________9/2_[was 9 of 25]
1974_Nonoalco_____________9/4_[was 7 of 18]
1975_Green Dancer__________6/4_[was 6 of 18]
1976_Wollow______________11/10_[was 5 of 23]

Hawk Wing won over 10f Eclipse next race after the Derby and was beaten a short head in the race after that, the 10f Irish Champion Stakes.  10f his limit imo.
Golden Horn will be found out for stamina in the Epsom Derby.  The Derby is 12f up a 140 foot hill.  If there is a question about stamina the answer will be negative.

I'm surprised Oppenheimer wants him to run. I had to interview him once at his offices in Charterhouse Street and we talked pedigrees all afternoon. He has an encyclopaedic knowledge of them. Very humble man too - he more or less admitted that Footstepsinthesand was a mistake that went right.

Giovanni is a May foal which is a disadvantage.

Can't think of a recent Derby winner born that late.

Blushing Groom 1977 a SHOCKING omission.

There you go
1977_Blushing Groom_________9/4_[was 3 of 22]

(he fell between my two cut and paste lists)

noteable wins ryan/o brien, 2012 homecoming queen ,1.000 gns= won 25/1 isp.
                            2013 ruler of the world derby.  = won 7/1 isp
                            2014 marvelous, 1,000gns ire,   =won 10/1 isp
                            2014 tapestry, yorkshire oaks,  =,won8/1 isp.
                            2015cape clear island, ire,    =. won14/1 isp
                            2015 gleneagles ,2.000 gns,    =. won 4/1 fav isp
                            2015 legatissimo, i,000 gns    =, won 13/2 isp
                           
                          thats not counting wins abroad
                        not to untidy.
+-

w buick/gosden, the fugue.

both jockeys, have good records ,group class 3yr olds,epsom ,both in profit.

its difficult race for placepot punters..........the ones with the best form are not certain to stay and the ones who look certain to stay either need rain or to improve

It depends on if the thunderstorm hits Epsom...nobody knows...

that will put the cat among the pigeons

Johnny interested in your reply re Elm and Jack Hobbs as on my reading things both have got a good shot of staying (shirley heights/mill reef lines in the dam side). Why d'yer think Tesio would be so seething, cos they were cheaper buys/breds? Not having a go just curious mate

He's means their breeding is dreadful and should not be winning a Derby!! Not that they cant stay!!

Hi Chico, as Cheltenham Roar says, I just don't like either of their pedigrees. You're right, there is Shirley Heights/Mill Reef on the dam side but I made that comment reference their sires neither of whom I like. I think both would stay - but stay a little too far and I'd have them down more as Leger types. Putting it another way, should one of them win and go to stud, would they enhance the future breed? A big 'no' in my opinion (although I'll retract my comment about Tesio as he said that the winning post at Epsom was all that matters).

Aha point taken fair enough, Tesio's right I think, call me sentimental I'm with him on that. Guess what I backed Moheet in April, got massive odds after the craven and he's actually running.  This almost never happens Antepost for me it's just one failure after another.  Tell me I've got more than a gnat's chance in the gravy!!!

i think moheet might run much better than price reflects, could improve for this trip and to me wouldn't be one to rule out of a place chance, you might easily trade that bet off

I like Moheet and he's got a big chance. I could tell you the story of why his yearling price soared from 40K odd to 800K but I'd be sued......

The very fact it is still standing should give you some satisfaction and it has more chance than a few trading lower in the market, best of luck

y'see now you've got my attention Johnny !

I think Moheet is most definitely a contender,Step up in trip is only gonna see him improve,
Ran a perfect trial for this in the Guineas after an interrupted passage,40s looks massive to me,
Hans Holbein and Moheet will do for me.

Canaletto looks a bit of a thinker to me, the uniqueness of the Epsom track may well keep his mind occupied on the task in hand.

It is clearly an unknown quantity and Ryan has a second crack on it after the horse got the better of him last time out, but I certainly wouldn't be laying any of the 9.4 wanting to back it.

think most of us can see GC winning but think we have all missed the price