7.15 Haydock - in-depth analysis

Interesting mile race, but with a distinct lack of confirmed pace – 3 or 4 horses can front-run but none do so consistently. Probably be Nonchalant who makes it, but that’s something of a guess.

Manchestar – Strong travelling sort who tanked through a strongly run mile at Thirsk latest. Looked the winner 2 furlongs out but didn’t put it all in and was outbattled by a braver sort. Gone up 4 pounds for that which looks fair. Being such a strong traveller, would definitely have preferred a strong pace to aim at today – probably won’t get one. (I wonder whether 7 furlongs might be its trip). Up 4 pounds and theoretically up in class, although in reality today’s race looks no stronger than the one LTO. Versatile with regards to ground. Shortlist.

Certificate – Well-backed favourite when flopped in the ultra-competitive Spring Mile. Given two months rest since then. Clearly well-regarded as has been heavily punted on each of its starts thus far. Its last start as a 3 year old was a reasonable performance in a slowish run mile. It was a touch keen early and then outpaced at a critical stage before running on too late. Would also prefer a strong end-to-end gallop and that looks unlikely. Slower ground a question mark. Enough goes against it to swerve.

Ice Slice – Another strong going sort who got the run of the race at Nottingham on seasonal debut when held up off the back of a strong pace on soft ground. Will enjoy the bit of cut in the ground but would also have preferred a stronger lick than likely to get here as it’s another strong traveller. Looks fairly treated though – only went up a 1 pound latest and has a handy 3 pounds taken off by the claimer. Shortlist.

Duelling Dragon – Beaten favourite in what, at the time, looked to be a good race. Was strongly run and DD looked to be beaten by two good horses. Form hasn’t really worked out since though, indeed with the 2nd being beaten this afternoon after being well-backed. That being said, you can’t take away the fact that the race was a truly run affair, visually good and DD remains on the same mark. He has form on softer than good which is a bonus too. Only real concern is that he looked a little short of a turn of foot, in a race where a turn of foot wasn’t really necessary – looked very one paced and that could be enough to get him beat in a slowish run affair tonight. Hopefully races more prominently and that could see him go close.
Others look inadequate or unsuited by ground.

Plenty of interesting sorts but most looked better suited by a big field handicap and better ground. Think the pace tonight will only be moderate which may see horses like Certificate, Ice Slice and Manchestar racing too keenly.

Duelling Dragon’s the bet for me @ 8/1. He goes fine on the ground, ran well latest and is on a competitive mark. He probably also wants a stronger pace as he lacked a turn of foot latest and looked to be a bit of a plodder. That may be no bad thing with the ground looking increasingly soft and if he races prominently enough, he can be driven into the lead 2 furlongs out and prove hard to peg back. GL all