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welshbandit
16 Oct 14 17:39
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 04
| Topic/replies: 405 | Blogger: welshbandit's blog
isn't that good without his claim. Outridden by a better apprentice in the last at Brighton
Pause Switch to Standard View Oisin Murphy really
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Report ima_mazed66 October 17, 2014 2:13 AM BST
And to think there are some people on here who claim they know the sport but actually don't know a good young jockey like Thomas Brown when they see one.

Oisin Murphy is very good but no better or worse than several other apprentices like Brown, Jason Hart, Robert Tart, Ryan Tate, Connor Beasley and there are plenty of good others too like that seem to appear or come to the fore every season like Cam Hardie, George Chaloner, Joey Haynes, Jack Garritty  and probably others I've not listed off the top of my head.

For the record I don't think Murphy did too much wrong and was just beaten by a jockey as equally good but could take off 3lbs instead of riding at level weights if neither could claim and there was only a neck in it at the end but it's obvious to anyone with knowledge of the game that that can and will happen and is one of the disadvantages of an apprentice losing their claim.
Report thegiggilo October 17, 2014 2:19 AM BST
Every jockey has poor rides,the one earlier on the card stybba looked a mediocre ride should've led that race and used the horses stamina very poor ride.In saying that I'd still rather have hiom riding than 90% of jocks!
Report Marcce October 17, 2014 11:12 AM BST
And to think there are some people on here who claim they know the sport but actually don't know a good young jockey like Thomas Brown when they see one.

Seems to be a whole host of trainers who can't see the talent you keep banging on about.

The likes of Rachel Richardson, Gemma Tutty, Amy Scott, Eoin Walsh and Matthew Hopkins to name just a few apprentices have ridden at least as many winners as he has this season.

Just about everyone in the sport seems to not actually know anything it seems.
Report ima_mazed66 October 17, 2014 11:56 AM BST
I'm sure they would have seen it had they watched him get the better of Murphy in this particular race.

Thomas Brown last season stats:

51 winners from 287 rides at a SR of 18%

Down to only claiming 3lbs now and lowest riding weight in last 12 months 8-5

This season's stats:

8 winners from 111 rides at a SR of 7%

So either he's forgotten what to during the past 12 months or there are couple of key issues in there somewhere.
Report Marcce October 17, 2014 12:25 PM BST
How's about the key issue being his allowance going from 5 pounds to 3 pounds seeing as you feel the allowance or lack of made a load of difference to Murphy? In Brown's case we aren't talking about a second season apprentice either. Again I find something I pointed out to you i.e. his riding weight being quoted back to me.

In this particular race Murphy used up a bit of energy to ensure he bagged the rail and the winner saw it out just that bit better. The real thing to take notice of though is 72-8. That's the number of winners they've ridden with almost 30 of Murphy's coming since the start of July without a claim. Murphy being snapped up by the Qatar mob is also something to take notice of. Something else I told you was a possibility back in June.
Report ima_mazed66 October 18, 2014 9:46 AM BST
What part of:

Down to only claiming 3lbs now and lowest riding weight in last 12 months 8-5

and

So either he's forgotten what to during the past 12 months or there are couple of key issues in there somewhere

Didn't you quite understand the first time for you to then ask "How's about the key issue being his allowance going from 5 pounds to 3 pounds" as I thought I had already quite clearly made that point?

I've also acknowledged previously that it was you who pointed out to me Brown's weight issue and admitted I particularly wasn't aware of it but apart from the fact you seem to be confusing yourself now over whether it is or isn't a reason for his number of both winners and rides being down this season compared to last, (please get back to me when you decide whether it is or not on any given day) if it is an issue and I certainly think it is then why does it matter who highlighted the situation? The point is either relevant or isn't.

Are you also seriously going to compared just the number of winners and nothing else between a jockey who has had 604 rides with one who has had 111 because I'm actually quite embarrassed for you if that's the case? Are you totally going to ignore number of rides, quality of horses ridden, list of trainers riding for, weight (have you made you mid up if it's an issue yet?) and any number of other reasons?

I've also said numerous times everything that applies to Murphy also applies to all apprentices and so I'm afraid I beat you to it regarding how going from 5lbs to 3lbs can be as much as a disadvantage as going from 3lb to not claiming, because if trainers might not book an apprentice for a certain ride when he can't claim and go with another 3lb claimer instead, they can just as likely book another apprentice claiming 5lb once that previously 5lb claimer is now down to 3lbs.

If Thomas Brown was having the same number of rides as last season but well down on his winners then you might actually have a point but he's well down on rides as previously mentioned, most likely due to his weight and lost of 5lb claim and so he's obviously well down on winners so I'm struggling a little but here now to see why you find that so complicated to understand. I wonder too with your agenda driven ways if Murphy beats Brown in a finish will you be as keen to analyse why? For the record though the 3lb made the difference and little else.

Please don't try to form my opinions for me either as at no stage have I ever said going from 5 pounds to 3 pounds "made a load of difference to Murphy" and what I actually said was (and reproduced once again in my previous post so you really have no excuse for getting things wrong again) that it remained to be seen how he got on once he lost his claim and going to the next level will all depend on him getting the right job. Now you seem to agree (when it suits your argument with Brown) that losing part or all of the weight allowance can make a difference and I'm afraid I can't really award you any Brownie points for stating what was very likely and what most of the racing world knew was a strong possibility about Murphy getting the Pearl/Qatar job.

I personally don't think unless they get in better quality horses it's the right job yet and that he will be any more or less successful that Bentley in it but it could well act as a stepping stone if luck and timing go his way.
Report Marcce October 19, 2014 11:55 AM BST
What are you on about now ima?

When I originally highlighted Brown's weight you responded by saying that doing 8 stone 5 wasn't that low. Yet you now keep putting it forward as a reason he isn't getting the rides. The key here is whether people feel Brown is value for his 3 pound claim. The likes of Baker and Kirby and Baker are highly successful despite being unable to ride under 9 stone in Baker's case and 8 stone 12 in Kirby's case so there are still opportunities there for someone good enough. It's certainly a disadvantage for Brown compared to most other apprentices but it's not the overall definitive reason for the season he's had.

I've also told you before that I don't just look at winners. I knew that Murphy was a better jockey than Thomas Brown before winners ever came into it. That's also why I would never have to cling to something as basic as Murphy beating Brown in one finish. Again you should have grasped by now that one example is rarely that important to me so you wouldn't find any analysis from me if the tables were turned. I leave that to you and you just happen to be the king of "and some people say......" type posts whenever one example crops up which you feel justifies your arguments. It's like this. I have no doubt that Murphy is better than Brown and all the other apprentices you've said he's not much better than for that matter. If it's proven over a period of time that's not the case then so be it but one ride isn't going to have me wetting myself either way.

You will also never find an argument from me that losing part of or all of a claim can make a difference. It would be stupid to believe otherwise. However, the point here was that a number of people on here had the opinion that Murphy was good enough to compete without the claim. You on the other hand were making all sorts of dire predictions like he could struggle to win the apprentice title and that he could lose rides at Balding's to Brown.

As for Qatar they've made mistakes so far which could mean this will be the ideal time to go there. They're obviously very serious about making it work and I get the feeling failure isn't an option for them. Atzeni certainly seems to have been convinced and he's got a lot more to lose than most other jockeys around at the moment. What it is going to bring for Murphy is plenty of chances to ride in Group races which can only be a good thing.
Report ima_mazed66 October 19, 2014 12:43 PM BST
It really isn't that complicate Marcee I assure you but 8st 5lbs isn't that low and is considered heavy for a kid apprentice and that's the very reason why an apprentice who can only do that weight as his minimum is at a disadvantage.

If I'm a trainer whose horse is set to carry 8st 3lbs and I can choose an experienced jockey who can do that or a kid apprentice with a 3lb claim who can take the weight down to 8st then both offer advantages, those being experience over a weight concession. If Thomas Brown as an apprentice kid can only do 8st 5lb then I'm hardly going to book him as first choice because not only would he effectively be putting up overweight compared to the other two jockeys but he also couldn't make use of his 3lbs claim either and can't offer the experience of the older jockey nor the weight concession of the other 3lbs claimer, so where's the advantage he offers?

8st 5lbs is fine for a jockey's weight if he's long since ridden out his claim, has stopped growing and is in his late 20s and older but it's generally too heavy for a Flat apprentice and many end up having to go the NH route. Some trainers might even be willing to use a jockey putting up 2lbs overweight if it's say Ryan Moore but they generally won't if it's a kid still to ride out his claim and that's why Brown's rides have been down in numbers this season, along with the fact he can now only claim 3lbs instead of 5lbs.

I didn't "cling" to Brown beating Murphy in one finish as he's beaten him several times in races, I was just pointing out (despite someone else starting the thread) a prime example of there being little difference in their riding ability (which there isn't as long as you don't use winners alone to measure it) and also how the fact that Murphy could no longer claim his 3lbs in that race but Brown could ended up as significant, which was what I was saying all along about how it remains to be seen how they get on and can be a disadvantage. Of course there will be times too when Murphy beats Brown but I still say there is little in it ability wise between them and have seen nothing to contradict that......unless of course you do use winners alone and you never did answer has Brown suddenly forgotten what to do this season?

In 2010 he rode 2 winners - 2011 ride 4 winners - 2012 rode 11 winners - 2013 rode 51 winners and 2014 has 8 winners so far.

Are you seriously telling me you can't see a pattern there considering he was a teenager when he started and improved his totals ever season bar this one and do you really think he also weighed 8st 5lbs in 2010 too?

If you are going to make a attempt to quote me is it really too much to ask that you get at least somewhere near what I have actually said? At no time did I ever say Murphy couldn't compete once he lost his claim, I said it remains to be seen how he gets on once he does (which applies to all apprentices including Brown too) and also whether he gets the right job and that was said in response to the specific claim made that he was a future Champion Jockey. I also never said he would "struggle" to win the Apprentice title either and what I said was that it's no certainty or guarantee he would once he lost his claim, as obviously when a trainer looks for an apprentice to take weight off then Murphy can't do that any more and others can.

If Andrew Balding has a horse set to carry 8st 4lbs and he has a choice of Murphy who can do the weight and Brown who can claim but can't and so would effectively be putting up 1lb overweight then of course he's going to use Murphy and if I owned the horse I would want and expect him to, but if the horse was due to carry 8st 8lbs then it's equally as obvious that using Brown to bring in down 3lbs is the call over Murphy who would effectively be putting up overweight, so it's those kind of scenarios I'm on about when suggesting Brown could take rides that last season Murphy might have had.

It still doesn't change the fact though that Brown's options are limited due to his weight.
Report Marcce October 19, 2014 1:11 PM BST
Look ima it's like this. You've made various statements that you desperately attempt to justify. You also seem to think it makes a difference whether you start a thread or not. When you pop up with one of your comments it really doesn't matter if it was you who started the thread, you're still voicing your opinion on the particular subject whether you're the first to comment or the hundredth person. I also love the way you try to wriggle out of the apprentice title comment. Your post the other week attempting to qualify what you said at the time was a work of art. I know what you said and what you meant. The fact that you make emboldened statements and then try to wriggle out of them when proved completely wrong doesn't alter that.

The scenario about when Balding might use Brown ahead of Murphy is another one. Fact is that Murphy is still regularly riding the same profile of horse for Balding as he was when he had the 3 pound claim. Indeed the other week Murphy rode a double at Ascot with one race being worth over 90 grand to the winner. 2 handicaps on Balding runners carrying over 9 stone. They were the kind of rides you anticipated would be affected by the claim not a no brainer scenario like the one you've created above.

Murphy is better than Thomas Brown and has the ability to reach the very top. Yes that will depend on all the no s**t Sherlock provisos you specialise in but I've seen nothing to say he can't overcome them. Seeing you squirm on such a frequent basis is a bit stale now so let's just leave it at that.
Report ima_mazed66 October 19, 2014 2:26 PM BST
I don't have to attempt to justify things I haven't said Marcee and your problem seems to be that you suffer from getting the gist of what is being said (as in whether you perceive it as being from a negative or positive viewpoint) but not actually what was said, therefore you get yourself into a bit of a tangle when inaccurately attempting (and using failing) to reproduce what was said. So despite me having to correct you numerous times including my post above, if it doesn't suit you, you then plough on head down with your own version of what you think I have said regardless and won't acknowledge any corrections.

I can say it once again if you like but what I actually said was that Murphy was not guaranteed (key word) to win the Apprentice title this season once losing his claim, which I'll admit can be seen as a negative comment. However it's not quite the same as you suggesting I had said we would struggle to win it and whilst that would have been a negative too, it's not the same thing and at no stage did I ever say he wouldn't win it at all but if he does so by only x number of winners then I think my comment that he wasn't guaranteed is a perfectly valid one. The day after I said that or any time he could have been out for the season via injury which is why I specifically chose my words carefully and said he wasn't guaranteed, as there are no guarantees in this game anyway.

So because Murphy still rides some for Balding then that makes the point I made invalid? Nobody ever said he would never ride for him again (your getting the gist problem resurfaces) I just said that some (that doesn't mean each and every btw) rides that Murphy might have had before might go to Brown to make use of his claim. It's a big stable numerically, there are several meetings a day and they can have runners at more than one of them so just counting the numbers doesn't make my point invalid. If the yard had a fancied runner where they wanted to take 3lbs off and would have used Murphy last season or earlier in this one but instead use Brown and it goes on to win, it's still effectively cost Murphy a winner due to losing his claim even if he had a full book of also rans at another meeting.

It's funny how above you made a point of not using isolated incidents to prove anything and then er, use isolated incidents above go try to prove them. There could be any number of reasons why Murphy still rides particular Balding horses from owner preference, he rides them at home, it's always been his ride, he was going to that meeting anyway, Brown was riding one of theirs elsewhere in the exact scenario I was on about and others that I can't think of now off the top of my head. Apart from anything else though (and no doubt you will see this somehow as a U-turn despite it being valid) what I said was Murphy might (key word) not be guaranteed to win the Apprentice title if (key word again) he no longer gets certain rides from Balding having lost his claim.

That old what I actually say and what you perceive me to have said problem and apart from anything else (also bound to be seen by you as a back-tracking) what is said on any given day is done so under the conditions of that time, if circumstances change from that time then so can any outcome and Murphy didn't have the Qatar job at the time I said what I did, which obviously opens up opportunities now that weren't there then and certainly aren't there for the likes of Cam Hardie, Connor Beasley and some of his other rivals.

Plus if what I am saying are no sh1t comments then first why are you arguing them and secondly it's not me you should be telling, it's the ones like easygold arguing otherwise. Are you familiar with the expression preaching to the converted?
Report jimeen October 15, 2017 10:41 PM BST
Andrew Balding was looking to bring out Tart or Brown to ride his filly in the Group 1 there in Woodbine, but he had to settle for Oisin Murphy.
Report saddo October 15, 2017 10:53 PM BST
Ima in full flow, fond memories.
Report PBT October 15, 2017 11:45 PM BST
He rides everything of mine given the logistics. Genius.
Report PBT October 15, 2017 11:45 PM BST
He rides everything of mine given the logistics. Genius.
Report PBT October 15, 2017 11:45 PM BST
He rides everything of mine given the logistics. Genius.
Report ima_mazed66 October 16, 2017 12:50 AM BST
Erm, leaving aside Thomas Brown has packed up riding and Robert Tart has never had any ties to Andrew Balding (he's only been riding group race winners for that two-bob trainer John Gosden) who owns Chemical Charge jimeen?
Report Deltâ October 16, 2017 8:47 AM BST
not sure Tom has packed up


was riding work the other day for MHT who on his blog sayed


....Tom Brown, the jockey, has been riding out as well.
Report ima_mazed66 October 16, 2017 5:57 PM BST
I asked him a little while back Deltâ was there any reason why he had not had any rides recently and his reply was along the lines of that when you are "in fashion" the game can seem easy but also difficult when you are not, and he also said he has experienced both sides.

This was my very point I've touched on on here several times regarding decent apprentices potentially finding life hard once their claim has gone, if trainers move on to other fully-fledged with more experience or the next batch of apprentices who can take weight off the horse and whether those newly fully-fledged jockeys don't get the right job....I also asked Ed Walker a while later after Thomas's comments if he was still attached to the yard and he told me that he had packed up race-riding but still rides work for him.

I still don't believe Oisin Murphy currently has the right job to make him Champion Jockey as others have claimed on here but getting the #2 job with Qatar and then #1 once Andrea Atzeni moved on has obviously raised the class of horse he generally rides prior to getting either of those jobs.
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