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PennyPincher
10 Oct 14 10:22
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Date Joined: 29 May 12
| Topic/replies: 371 | Blogger: PennyPincher's blog
Each Way Doubles                        Stakes         Bookmaker
5:40 Dundalk    19:45 Greyville       
General Marshal    Cut And Polished    27.50            Billy 
General Marshal    Cherish The Charm    25.00        VC, Billy
General Marshal    Your Worship            17.50        VC    
Blackbriar            Cut And Polished    22.50        365         
Blackbriar            Cherish The Charm    17.50        365         
Blackbriar            Your Worship            12.50        365         
Arriana            Cut And Polished    15.00        365         
Arriana            Cherish The Charm    12.50               365         
Arriana            Your Worship         10.00        365         
           
       Total Stake    320.00

8 must run in the 5:40 GP

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Replies: 151
By:
ged
When: 10 Oct 14 11:30
and what happens if less than 8 run?
By:
portmanpark
When: 10 Oct 14 11:40
youre not taking many chances in the dundalk race
By:
Breedingmad
When: 10 Oct 14 11:44
Wouldn't you be better taking 6 selections from each meeting and doubling them
eg 6 x 6 ..36 bets if you get a couple of winners at each meeting you would have 4 doubles
up..
By:
portmanpark
When: 10 Oct 14 11:51
think his method is very flawed
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 17:27
Non runner 5:40 so updated bet as follows:

Doubles        Stakes for EW Doubles   
19:45 Greyville    20:20 Wolverhampton       
Cut And Polished    Excilly            40.00            WH 
Cut And Polished    Padlock            10.00            WH 
Cut And Polished    Unnoticed    10.00            WH 
Cut And Polished    Gentlemusic    7.50    3.65  Sportsbook       
Cherish The Charm    Excilly            32.50            WH 
Cherish The Charm    Padlock            7.50            WH 
Cherish The Charm    Unnoticed    7.50            WH 
Cherish The Charm    Gentlemusic    5.00    3.65  Sportsbook       
Your Worship            Excilly       25.00      Sportsbook   PP    Crl
Your Worship            Padlock            7.50      Sportsbook   PP    Crl
Your Worship            Unnoticed    7.50      Sportsbook   PP    Crl
Your Worship            Gentlemusic    5.00      Sportsbook       
           
    Total Stake    330.00
By:
ged
When: 10 Oct 14 18:05
So how do you update the bet you've had on the 5.40?
By:
xmoneyx
When: 10 Oct 14 18:07
non bet 7 runners
By:
ged
When: 10 Oct 14 18:08
...and how do you get the bets on anyway given that they're all in snidey ew races?
By:
ged
When: 10 Oct 14 18:09
So does the bookmaker give the stake back on all the doubles involving the 5.40 because there was a non-runner in the race?
By:
xmoneyx
When: 10 Oct 14 18:12
good question
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 18:13
as it was the first race I could wait until later on
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 18:14
small stakes so no trouble getting on, some in shops some online no problem
By:
saddo
When: 10 Oct 14 18:15
Did they all hold the prices til you made yer mind up?
By:
Dairymilk2009
When: 10 Oct 14 18:15
CLEVELAND STREET Form reads 'Improved display in first-time blinkers, beaten only two necks in third, last time' from one source yet went off at a cracking 50-1!! 3/7 Last Time Out and was a VERY tasty Each-Way! HOW did you miss that one! BLACKBRIAR had Form of 66 and ARIANNA 36 so hardly 'Hot Fav' material...
By:
ged
When: 10 Oct 14 18:19
So you can't place your bets until just before the first race, and then you have to hope they'll be no non-runners in the 2nd race, and that the prices will be held, and that they'll take your bets.
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 18:25
yes that's it ged, if there are 8 runners, nine in second so not a great concern
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 18:27
the bookmakers are just what spreadsheet throws up saddo sp is fine
By:
xmoneyx
When: 10 Oct 14 18:35
I thought bookies don't void n/r e/w double
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 20:33
Result at sp: +£77.60 I got a bit more at available odds but who cares.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 10 Oct 14 20:43
Ludicrous imo. One day a week where you draw a blank wastes your profit for the whole week (which will happen often).
By:
PennyPincher
When: 10 Oct 14 20:49
lets see, I will post to the end of october
By:
ged
When: 10 Oct 14 20:51
Did you bet them in a shop, or an online account?
By:
s.kenbo
When: 10 Oct 14 21:00
I wish you luck PP. Let's hope I'm wrong come the end of October. Cool
By:
PennyPincher
When: 11 Oct 14 11:53
Bet 1 + £77.60 Total +77.60 (at SP)

Bet 2:

EW Doubles                          Stakes for EW Doubles
14:35 Chepstow    16:35 Hexham   
Emerging Talent    Ride the Range            30.00
Emerging Talent    Itchymeimscratch    27.50
Emerging Talent    Uisge Beatha            20.00
Shelford    Ride the Range            25.00
Shelford    Itchymeimscratch    25.00
Shelford    Uisge Beatha            15.00
Sivron       Ride the Range            7.50
Sivron       Itchymeimscratch    7.50
Sivron      Uisge Beatha            5.00
       
    Total Stake    325.00

If there is a nr in the 16:35 Hexham before 14:15 I will change the bet
By:
Swardean
When: 11 Oct 14 13:18
Good luck but it was actually a very good job there was a non-runner in the first bet you had put up, as it would have been likely you would have had a outsider winning the race and perhaps just 1 or 2 places doubles remaining.  Just shows the danger of the strategy.

That said, no strategy can be perfect or else everyone would be doing it.   Interesting to see your results. GL
By:
PennyPincher
When: 11 Oct 14 16:51
Bet 1 + £77.60 Total +77.60 (at SP)
Bet 2 - £23.56 Total +54.04 (at SP)
By:
PennyPincher
When: 12 Oct 14 14:12
Bet 1 + £77.60 Total +77.60 (at SP)
Bet 2 - £23.56 Total +54.04 (at SP)

Bet 3:
EW Doubles                  Stakes for EW Doubles
17:30 Ffos Las              15:20 Ffos Las       Stakes
Scorpiancer                 The Govaness         35.00
Scorpiancer                 Ballyhollow          22.50
Rock the Kasbah             The Govaness         35.00
Rock the Kasbah             Ballyhollow          22.50
Sir Ivan                    The Govaness         25.00
Sir Ivan                    Ballyhollow          17.50

Total Stake 315.00
By:
s.kenbo
When: 12 Oct 14 14:39
I can see two winners coming but a loss on the day. At those odds the place doubles will pay peanuts.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 12 Oct 14 14:48
Did you use to post as howtospendit or something similar? He had a thread like this only he'd dutch anywhere between the first 4 to 8 in the market. He said we'd be millionaires in a few months but after a few bad days he vanished.
By:
PennyPincher
When: 12 Oct 14 17:55
Bet 1 + £77.60 Total +77.60 (at SP)
Bet 2 - £23.56 Total +54.04 (at SP)
Bet 3 -153.60 Total -99.56 (at SP)

no never posted as anyone else, don't expect to be a millionaire but certain I will make a profit SPs are poor but am certain it will work with those too, I havent lost that much with my actual bets
By:
s.kenbo
When: 12 Oct 14 18:07
I think you need to be a bit braver with your prices, or reduce to two selections each race. You could get a winner and a place from your races and still be down for the day.
By:
PennyPincher
When: 12 Oct 14 18:17
ive done it for 8 months and had good results, these results are typical
By:
s.kenbo
When: 12 Oct 14 18:32
The curse of the forum! CoolLaugh
By:
PennyPincher
When: 12 Oct 14 18:37
early days, lets see after 20 bets
By:
cardifffc
When: 12 Oct 14 19:02
penny........you are doomed to failure ........nap
By:
dave1357
When: 12 Oct 14 19:40
Penny are you checking if you're getting value for your bets? If you put the bookies price and the betfair SP win and place in this calculator it gives you an idea if the bet is value.
http://www.sportspreadsheet.com/EachwayCalc.html
By:
Swardean
When: 12 Oct 14 19:55
That is an issue with the strategy, you cannot take a price early due to the uncertainty of non-runners. no choice really other than take SP
By:
clayfield1
When: 17 Oct 14 13:44
Why don't you put your bets up every day, so we can all see what you are backing, no good putting them up what you DID BACK at the end of the month, put your bets on here every day, then you can be beleved.
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 17 Oct 14 14:41
The value comes from the fact that, in certain races, the place book is overbroke even at SP. This has been known for hundreds of years.

The question is, with this perming strategy, whether you are wasting the value with your win doubles that are going to lose.

The pure form of the strategy is to back ew on one of these bad (for the bookies) ew races and to lay off the win on Betfair at the same price or even better than the price obtained from the bookie.
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