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are all 8 going to run?
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Who Knows?
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They
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Would you run if you had one of the rags?
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looks a genuine 2 horse race so MR must be the bet at around 4.0
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My Tent or Yours is starting to look backable IMO. Will get its ground, and is only up against a 155 horse in Melodic Rendezvous. Should be straight forward enough.
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Melodic Rendezvouz is a ridiculously good price. I think MTOY is a superb horse but there have been plenty of big fancies beat first time out this year; many of which have been Henderson's. Siding with the one with fitness here.
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Crazy only one winner here. The 2 nd best hurdler at last festival.
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You felt Champagne Fever would have beaten the Fly MT?
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A place cert.
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It's time was quicker.
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And if I owned it I would insist on a champion hurdle run.
But then that my fave race lol. |
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Time, shmime.
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We will never know. But it ran same course in faster time.
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That's because Ruby rode the perfect fractions on Champagne Fever - he set off hard, but slowed it down mid-race. Fehily lead at a fast pace and maintained the fast pace the whole way round. That's why it turned into a slog in the last couple of furlongs.
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MR was well fancied for the Supreme but was a late scratching and no one can be sure where he would have finished had he run so using the Supreme to say MTOY is better than him is spurious logic
I've backed MR solely on value grounds, should be 6/4 each of two or something similar |
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MR hasn't beaten anything of note in my book, this is a big step up against MTOY, Be very surprised in the fav is beaten. Grumeti is interesting
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but that is the same argument! "he didn't run in the Supreme so he can't win"
he was an intended runner and for all anyone knows he might have won - he was 4th favourite when withdrawn so certainly capable he just won a handicap off 150, MTOY won his off 149 at this stage it is surely hard to separate them without resorting to the Supreme plus MR has had a run and NJH has had several high profile debutants beaten this season - how could you be surprised? I would have thought it would be no surprise unless a rag wins |
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My logic is the same as Judorick's, plus the trainer didn't think MR would win at Wincanton as he wasn't fit!!
A friend pointed out last night that you could back MR at 8/11 without MTOY but I'm happy to take the chance he'll beat him anyway. Anyway , off to the turf.....geordies  |
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Mtoy place bet will keep me smiling.
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Joined:
09 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 3,620 | Blogger: Money Tree cost me thousands!!'s blog A place cert. Ffs dont sit on the fence will ya. You should work for Timeform. It's almost like saying the Pope's Catholic. |
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and say a £100 place to win about a tenner is a dumb bet. You have ten of those to match the inevitable one that falls. Maybe that one is today?........................
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Rubbish.
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so the pope isnt Catholic
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I think we are all reading too much into the ifs and buts of this race. IMO the connections of MR are coming here with no more than a fighting chance. THEY are looking for an "Upset". That speaks volumes to me. AP is coming here expecting nothing but victory. The horse with genuine Champion Hurdle aspirations is MTOY.Anything short of victory here will be an almighty blow to all concerned. Forget what HAS been and focus on what is in front. Hoping for a good pace from Grumeti to set the race up nicely. In fact I would prefer this one to MR. All in all, I fully expect AP to be laughing at them on the run in.
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In a race that is normally won by the fittest horse and not the best, I think it is worth taking an e/w chance on cockney sparrow. (12/1 b365 BOG).
Conditions look ideal and the stable won this last year. Rated 141 on last victory, I thought she had plenty in hand that day and wouldn't surprise me if she is a 150 mare. Alasi behind that day has won since Doyly Carte ran well at haydock (indeed on colateral form with Far West should beat MR - always dodgy I know!). She also gets a handy 7lb pull today so that may mean MTOY will have to run to his 160 mark today. With Henderson not exactly firing, the fact he has had shorties turned over and today is the the be all and end all for MTOY, that could be hard to do. I think Cockney Sparrow is a sporting bet. GL. |
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I look at it the other way. Connections of Melodic Rendezvous are coming here as a logical step on the road to the Champion Hurdle. This horse is underrated by many. It's already a Gr 1 winner, was about 3rd fav for The Supreme before sickness ruled it out and it won nicely at Wincanton when Scott's stable was blatantly out of form and he said it would need the race. On some form lines it only has a few pounds to find with MTOY and it is still improving, so why not take him on.
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GRUMETI here.... Could be good and one to follow.
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Get on MTOY now. Will be around 4/7 come race time!
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I think MTOY will get the job done today. MR needs to be respected as alot of you have mentioned he wasn't fit LTO and will improve alot for that run, but how much will he improve? we will have to find out today. I've gone for a big win on MTOY and got evens for MR in the betting without the fav this morning. Great price i think!
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YEAH DYSO - you looking good at the mo .
good luck |
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Easy. Very very impressive.
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Won well, but no chance against The New One at Cheltenham
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every chance I'd say....really wants a suicidal pace to see it at its best though, it'll be the last thing off the bridal in the CH...hopefully if there's been a brutal pace, nothing will be left to have to fight against.
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I think Cockney Sparrow has run a great race, I thought it was closing in at the end. Another to benefit from a faster pace. Also, would have been closer to winner if had sat out the back, today its the one that towed the field and actually went after Cotton Mill when it slipped the field. Must have used up some energy.
Mare race even champion hurdle definitely on now. |
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judo how was MR form anywhere near as good MTOY regardless of him missing the supreme, it was a big step up on what he had been beating, MTOY form was superior and was entitled to be a shorter price. Not one of those behind MTOY will reverse the form, that for sure
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It was a good performance from MTOY's, we'd all imaging that he'd have been 3/4's fit too with the stable generally out of form which adds to the credit so to give cotton mill 15 lengths head start and travel into it in his usual fashion was a decent starting point.
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an excellent performance from MTOY and he can only beat whats put in front of him. I like the THE NEW ONE, as well, so lets see how that does, when he comes out, really exciting times in the jump game.
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MTOY is about 14lbs at least superior then any of those that contested the race today, so What mark would you make the others and stick at least a stone on top and you will have the ability level of MTOY, He was a great e/w bet for the Champion Hurdle prior to todays race, cant see him out of the first 3 given the way he travels into the race.
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Christmas hurdle I take it is the target next for the New One, will JP And hendo go for that as well, given how both love that contest?
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