The New One vs Rock on Ruby

Soft going would suit TTO more than ROR

Which horse finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle on soft ground Andrew?

ROR is a few pound better on good ground than soft, if it was soft i would leave the race alone becasuse The New One still has to improve his TS figure over 2 miles.

Which horse finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle on soft ground Andrew?

ROR is a few pound better on good ground than soft, if it was soft i would leave the race alone becasuse The New One still has to improve his TS figure over 2 miles.

I take your point AG, but whereas ROR can handle soft, he's much better on decent ground. His last 3 races, 2 of them on soft or heavy resulted in defeats and he's lost several when soft of any sort is in the going description. TTO on the other hand, almost revels in soft and if the expected rains arrive later, it will bring his stamina into play. That's not to say he's a good thing (far from it) but I think the more likely winner, although like the OP, i'm surprised at the current prices.

re rock on ruby getting better as the season goes on may I remind you of his performance in the Gerry fielden on his return in 2011.

Foxy, in that race Empire Levant (who finished 2nd) won a conditional jockeys handicap hurdle (£3754) in his previous race

that's the race Andrew on the back of that run he went into the champion hurdle with the best performance of that season.

Andrew.......that Gerry fielden was his best speed figure ever .....better than in his champion hurdle win or his 2nd to HF

This is a "speed track".................Ruby the fastest horse

We havent seen The new 1 go R/H yet ?

could not agree more Cardiff the 3rd horse that day btn 10 length plus getting 13lb won the Ladbroke hurdle at ascot next time.

I think last season it was a tough pipe opener for ROR at Cheltenham on heavy ground and i think even at his best he would struggle onthat ground giving Zarkandar 4lb. I doubt it will be heavy today even with thunder storms and it could turn into a speed finish today and ROR comes out top on the figures.

Rock on Ruby has a good record fresh and is still the one with least to prove of the pair. Also The New One has NEVER raced right handed which is an imponderable also (admittedly ROR also seems better LH). I am not going to stick my neck out on who will win BUT I do believe that the market has it wrong at present. I would say evs, 6/4 more like it.

To add I think if you backed ROR at the available 3.2 and layed TNO at 1.5 you should be able to IN RUNNING lay ROR around evs and also back TNO at around evs too. Nuff' Said.

The New One ran to 164 as a novice which I don't think any other novice has since Iris' Gift.

As a 5yr old moving out of novice company they tend to improve at least 10lb over the summer, and if that is the case witch The New One he's going to take some serious beating as he develops throughout the year.

At 8/1 for the Champion Hurdle he looks the antepost bet of the Festival to me, but agree he does look a little short today; more than likely due to NDT having his string ready to go early in the season every year and should be sharper than ROR this afternoon.

Don't forget that his run at Aintree was taking on the older brigade off levels when only a novice and it was a career best run. I love the bones of him but laid him for a place that day as a I thought he was far too short and it was a massive ask taking on his elders. He ran an absolute blinder to run as he did.

I think this fella is the real deal. His turn of foot is electric.

king of hull would you like to bet the other 3 at 10/1 combined ?

I don`t understand this electric turn of foot which has been mention. According to most post race analysis he has `stayed on well` over a distance beyond 2 miles. Love is blind and all that.

Watch The Neptune again as they turn for home at the bottom of the hill. That is an electric turn of foot

similar conversations will be repeated ad infinitum  throughout the National Hunt season for many races and lots of horses

ahhh, welcome back jumps

judorick

I suggested on another thread this could well be the best national hunt season ever.

I know we saw a great champion stakes yesterday but the gulf between jumps and flat is now bigger than ever.

No blinkers for Rock On Ruby , used in the Champion.
Despite winning a Champion Hurdle , I doubt he is as good as The New One.

Lay for me.

the biggest threat is keeping horses sound, if the big players all stay fit then it should be great

I am particularly looking forward to the 3 mile+ Grade 1 Chasers and extreme distance handicap chasers

Looking forward to seeing Bobs Worth dominating the 3 mile scene this year - think he's going to prove himself to be the best since Flyingbolt. His victory in the GC was the best performance I've seen since Kauto's King George romp.

When TN1 won G2 bumper april.....trainer on abt Hdls 2m4f.........the Neptune 2m5f stiff galloping track.........bit sharp around here for it....?
      dont like the mud & the rains allmost there

Crikey , talk about different views of the same race.

I thought Bob's Worth was going up and down on the spot a mile out ,and simply outstayed a very average field.

He may (like See You Then & Best Mate) run up a sequence in an era of average chasers imo.

Yes , I know See You Then was a hurdler, but the point is the opposition were no stars.

I also think that's a very brave statement thunderroad but of course we all should have opinions.

We'll see folks. Everything in the race went wrong for him, and he still smashed a couple of 170+ chasers into the ground. I was heavily invested in Long Run (mainly in the place department) and Silviniaco Conti () and didn't quite understand the hype behind Bobs Worth. He completely blew my expectations away that day and I don't expect anybody to get close to him in the next few years.

see that is a perfect example of allowing your preconceptions to cloud your later judgement

you backed Silviniaco and he was travelling beautifully before falling. Had he stood up he might well have won & and your opinion would be different, and indeed SC may well be capable of significant further progress this year which would mean your 'best since X' about BW instantly becomes invalid

in addition there are others to join the party

was it hype behind bobs worth or the fact the horse was a proven cheltenham specialist and grade 1 performer already, with potential
for more improvement ?

It should be a good race.The Rock at 7/4 must be the value

Watch The Neptune again as they turn for home at the bottom of the hill. That is an electric turn of foot

Or in reality..

Tracked leaders, not fluent 2 out, driven to lead approaching last, ran on strongly run-in

and FAR more went wrong for Sir Des Champs

firstly, he had a jockey switch and secondly the rain ruined his chance completely because he simply did not stay

- the 2013 GC was run nearly 30 seconds slower than the 2012 renewal and there has to be a chance that on that going, with his proper jockey, SDC might well have bounded up the hill after jumping the last in front, like he did in the Jewson, instead of stopping to a virtual walk

Sorry Rick, but SC definitely wouldn't have won, and may not have even been placed. I love the horse, but is strength is the way he jumps and travels - he's not like Bobs Worth, Long Run or Sir Des Champs who find plenty for pressure. I'd backed him at fancy prices antepost, but was far from confident (and ended up laying off my stake) on the day because I don't think he quite has the staying capabilities you need for a Gold Cup horse. He may have cruised up to challenge the leading pair, but he would have weakened out of it when push comes to shove.  Stick to the big field handicaps IMO Rick

you don't know that, who the feck do you think you are, fecking Nostrodamus? ffs

Stick the aw because that's about your level you mug

SDC would be better off trained in the UK, he needs decent ground. He is a top animal but needs his ground and ran an absolute beauty in the GC all things considering.

Rick, you've been pontificating about how Sir Des Champs (and therefore by extension, Long Run) didn't stay the distance, but are claiming that Silviniaco Conti somehow would have?!? Long Run has one of the biggest engines in the game, and he was tired coming up that hill. If SDC and Long Run didn't stay the Gold Cup, there's not a hope in hell that SC would have.

There's no need for the insults either, you're a nice enough guy and quite shrewd at the big field races, but you get it wrong just like everybody else.

Long Run has not finished up the hill since his GC success. Cheltenham is the only only course which he downs tools, many horses follow this suit after giving giving all there. SDC would have hated that ground but so did Bob`s Worth but he is a real grinder.

I'm still a bit surprised at Judorick's aggressive reaction there, because I'd always assumed he was a nice bloke. Heck, I even joined Twitter because I enjoyed his opinions on the Saturday big field handicaps (which in fairness, in the time I followed him, he was probably a couple of points in profit overall, despite laying off on Heaven's Guest when it pissed in 2 weeks ago). When you dig deeper though, I realised he's probably a bit of a fantasist.
Judorick     07 Apr 12 10:56
No joke, I am a super fit health fanatic. I have a 32 inch waist and a 48 inch chest, do 15 to 20 hours of intense exercise every week plus 2 x 3 hour full contact sparring sessions. I maintain 8% body fat and am totally ripped. Tee total, I live on a superfood diet, mainly raw organic, with plenty of wild food too

I am 45 but many people have told me (when they dont know my age) that I look 30 to 32. I have a property portfolio including a frontline apartment on the beach in Fuengirola, a villa in Mijas and a dozen plus rented out in London including 2 buildings with 8 flats and 12 flats

He is decent enough but can rear up when you point out his `racing blindspots` which i have only done twice and each time he has has blown a fuse.

But i feel as though i understand him enough to be overtly passionate to his own form as a judge.

As I say, not taking away from his ability, because he's obviously a decent judge (despite an over-use of statistics). I was just surprised by him blowing a fuse over a differing opinion, which made me do a little background research into him. From everything I've found, he's obviously not a well man. Shame as well, because I'd actually quite respected him.

I live 8 miles from Kempton,currently lashing down where I am

The New One will win, ROR won't be tuned up for this, again. Easy win

judo is as good as gold provided you agree with everything he says....
it still amuses me how he went bonkers when he first started posting on here one night on the aftertimers thread (where is that by the way)

You lot ask pieceofcake how good I am

I'm in for it now

Thunder

I thinks stats hold a balance to selections but they do ignore individuality, such as Bob`s Worth constantly producing his best mark after a long lay off, yet the stats men had him down as a non winner because of his long lay off, yet his OR was as good as anything in the race. Seemed daft to me.

shame the pacemaker is out

At the prices, it's just got to be the former champion, and current CH runner up, ROR, who is rated a superior horse yet them mad bookie chappies are giving you 2-1.
We all know the track won't play to their strengths so it could turn out to be a VERY tactical affair with both jocks watching each other. Anyway, I've taken the 2s.
GL

Ruby at these odds for me. The New One was my favourite novice of last season but Zarkandar beat him fair and square and Ruby is better than him.

Good luck guys, but first time out and softish ground, i'm going with the fav

My 2 cents for what it's worth, I am reading a lot into the fact that novice chasing was "seriously" considered for R.O.R.
I think he may have lost a step to challenge these young promising horses from last year (our connor, The New One).
I think if Sam gets TNO out in front (similar to Warwick last year) he will DESTROY R.O.R.
Just hope that they come back sound... but also having a few quid on T.N.O for the Champ as his price will change after this

thunder

surely your best bet is that this doesn't come down to a turn of foot, cannot see the new one doing ruby for a turn of foot round here over 2 miles.

the new one needs to try and stretch this race out imo.

and rock on ruby is 2/3 with similar layoffs

could not back the new one odds on here NO BET race for me anyway

gl

front runner out too now

australia day nr

Racing Post - so called reporter is reporting that Paul Nicholls is the man to follow in this listed race..and so his "horse" Rock on Ruby is the "hot trainer".
Jeez, and these poeople get paid to write this ....

outsider might win lol

new one easy

impressive wd

Ruined him.

this horse is champion hurdle horse

commentator got very excited

glad i stayed out was going to back ruby

totally wrong

THE SPECIAL ONE !!!!!!

That was "SENSATIONAL" ... Hope that you took the prices prior to the race ...I did

Jesus that was impressive!

showed a lot of speed

Well that was very easy(and profitable) , changing of the guard time.

certainly did sonko

thunder bang on about change of gear at this trip

BHB

Very happy to say i didn`t see what you saw, you was correct and at least 10lb improvement was shown today. Very very impressive and as electric as a turn of foot you will see in the NH game.

Very impressive by the winner.  Made Ruby look like a selling plater and we know Ruby has top form

"Our Connor" ..... Over to you today, Show us what YOU got ....

Just bringing  things down to earth a little bit,that was a fit horse against a not fit horse who isn't really going to be a CH contender realistically speaking...did it well though.

Duffy - You talk tripe.

How can you possibly know that R.O.R was not fit..
Did you not see R.O.R last 2 seasonal appearances...

He got destroyed by a FAR better animal.... and R.O.R is a very good horse, let's not downplay what is awesome potential to be great by T.N.O

Sounds like you missed all the prices, all the fun and probably backed R.O.R... (pocket talking)

last season ROR travelled into the race the best and badly blew up!!

The freaky thing here is that The New One would probably start fav for the stayers hurdle if trained to do so.... he really is unique.

No-one is knocking him, just tempering down the OTT superlatives a bit.

Duffy

Last season on debut he gave Zarkandar 4lb on heavy ground, even at his best he would struggle to do that. TNO todayout paced him yet ROR had the speed figures in the bag. TNO has improved a stone from last term. He is the real deal, trust your eyes, the paddock judges wetre saying ROR looked sharper than TNO, yet he destroyed him.

SMH, I backed the winner and made a few posts on here regarding ROR and soft, but it was plain to see he was beaten before 2 out. HF already stated he wasn't fully fit and would come on for the race (although that was obvious).

Unless you were there duffy you cant know ROR fitness. Neesom was and he opined that ROR was fitter than TNO.

Yes Andrew but the winner would only be 90% fit, sure its early in the season to form concrete opinions but i trust my eyes when i see a good one and The New One will be carrying my wonga come March.

I hear that but regardless of the 4lbs, he travelled the best through the race and went from travelling to zero in a matter of strides,TNO put up a good display, but he'll face far greater tests than this...that's all, I'm not proclaiming anything as of yet.

October, NTD horses are generally hard fit.

duffy

You need tometion ROR hitting the last hurdle hard on his debut last season, that would have knocked his momentum coming up the hill.

I just think the excuses made for ROR today will be seen as behind the times later on in the season as TNO is a much better animal this year. I may be wrong and i actually though ROR was value today so i am not being biased here.

The 2014 Champion Hurdle could be the best one for many years

Judorick at it AGAIN I see, a complete guesser, using stats from other horses makes me laugh. His handicap opinions at Cheltenham last season??? were very poor, I tried to help him but told me to f.e.ck of. Sad case I`m afraid. And I agree S.C in my expert opinion wud have struggled up the hill on all known previous form

I believe that TNO is a better horse than ROR and would actually argue that a beating of ROR wouldn't elevate him necessarily to CH winning status, I'm not a fan of ROR and think that there are far stronger horses he would have needed to beat to create the reaction he got today.

Oh Dear Our Connor.... I think even Rock On Ruby would have beat that today

As good as The New One & Our Conor may be , how anything can be shorter odds than Hurricane Fly puzzles me .

MTOY'S

Duffy -  I just am more than a little concerned about MTOY`s coming up the hill...

What a sight it could be coming to the last ... Rock On Ruby in front under the cosh, looking behind, TNO , MTOY, Hurricane Fly all CANTERING hard on the steel... (Our Connor... a mile behind... )

Just hope that they all get there in one piece.

To your point 626 - We may get an indication of an early pecking order if HF and Our Connor meet prior to or around Xmas in one of the HF benefit races ... (I would be all over HF by the way)

Just think it`s time to pass the torch, I would never take what will be a 10 yr old HF against a much younger T.N.O after today ...

HF great horse but now 10, he needs it all to go his way and imo wants it soft at Chelts or else he is taken off his feet.

The New One has it all, no negatives at all, stamina, ground, track, like water off a ducks back.

*HF will be 10 by March..

Oh Dear Our Connor.... I think even Rock On Ruby would have beat that today

You're probably correct, but it was a 12f 'pipe opener' on the flat and he actually ran quite well

Who would you want to be on then after today, Andrew ?

The New One, Rock on Ruby or Our Connor?

Un De Sceaux 25/1 is my value selection. A serious novice, gets my vote to be a leading contender come March. Hopefully his trainer will aim him for the Big Prize

Who would you want to be on then after today, Andrew ?
The New One, Rock on Ruby or Our Connor?

SMH, of those 3, it would be close between TNO and Our Connor, definitely not ROR. We need to see OC over hurdles first, it's far too early to be looking at the CH and MTOY is in the loop. Exciting times

Very, very impressive that on ground softer than ideal in a race with little pace on a flat track - he settled it in a matter of strides.

I can't wait to see him back at Cheltenham off a proper pace on decent ground. He is some machine and the benchmark for the rest for me - Hurricane Fly included - and that comes from someone who would not hear of defeat for HF at the the last 3 Festivals

....Fair play..............to those that kept the faith.

As Andrew said below
"HF already stated he wasn't fully fit and would come on for the race (although that was obvious)."

Fry fairly new on the block
But following the trademark pattern
Why are these trainers not pulled up for running horses not fit ?
How many times have we all heard "Will come on for the run"

Get them fit at home not on the track !!
& wasting punters dosh on guessing whether they telling porkies or not

Twister normally has them ready to go early
But... all eyes on March not Oct really

Trainers not pulled up for running horses not fit? What planet are you on? Its about the big days,not a poxy Sunday in October

NTD usually has his horses fit as fleas at the start of the season and would think there will not be much improvement in this horse.  He will spout his usual rubbish but come Feb/Mar time the stable will be out of form as usual.