Reflections on the Arc

To summarise,you said it would not win.
It wins pulling a Trent Barge and now you "might" Lay it for next year's race.
You could not make it up!

The Hannons said that SL would be targeted at a race in Hong Kong, due to her need for firm ground and the connections living there. Does that make it one of "the ones to be on"?

The race did not pan out for Ruler of the World. A lot more to come from him next year.

4YO s carry more weight because they are going to be stronger and better able to do so .

The adjustment makes it a test of speed , as a thoroughbred horse race is supposed to be , rather than strength , as that is only of interest in horses that pull ploughs.

You can argue that maybe the system does not reflect that some horses mature faster than the average in terms of size and strength but thats another matter.

Talking about these races as if they were handicaps , as many do , is just silly IMO  .Weight For Age is a perfectly equitable concept , though the 3lb extra allowance that fillies get is much more dubious .

There is an argument thats stands up to the closest scrutiny that the 3yo's and fillies allowance helps them big time against the older horses.

Would've been interesting to see how probably the most overrated horse of all time Sea The Stars fared against his older peers at level weights, considering he beat nothing out of the ordinary anyway?.

I would strongly fancy Treve to beat the same field at level weights if it was run next week. She was never really asked for maximum effort and must have travelled 3 lengths farther than most of her opponents by staying wide. The 3yo allowance does seem generous at this time of year but it has been the same for a long time.

Only 3 lengths? I would argue it was more like 10 lengths further given her wide draw, having to take a pull and lose ground to "get in", then running 3 or 4 wide all the way. If I am honest, I never really considered her to win that race, but now with hindsight she will be the mortgage job every time she runs.She still has a lot of filling out to do, still looked very weak and small to me, so she can only get better... which is frightening for all her opponents. She was dwarfed in size by her rivals and quite rightly got a small weight allowance.

I think the subject for discussion here is the weight for age scale.
I'm opposed to it in Group 1's.
A Group 1 race is for the very best horses and should be so regardless of age,sex.
By giving weight allowances it sometimes takes the gloss off the result for me.
Would Youmzain have got closer to Sea The Stars on equal weights? We will never know.
Treve's performance was such that she would probably have won without the allowance but,again,we cannot be certain.
Why should there be a weight allowance? Why is it necessary to try to even things out and give the younger horses a better chance?
Next time Jokovich plays a sixteen year old at Wimbledon,will Jokovich be made to wear a belt weighing 11 lbs to give the youngster a better chance?
Some will argue that trainers won't run younger horses if there is no weight for age.
I would counter that two things might result. One,the introduction of more late season Group 1's restricted to 3 year olds
and two,more champion three year olds staying in training at four.
At the least the scale needs reviewing as it appears to not be equalling things out but handing an unfair advantage to 3 year olds.

Unfair advantage? You cannot be serious.... there is a world of difference in size and maturity between a 3yo and 4yo racehorse, that weight allowance is completely justified, it's like asking a 15 year old schoolboy to race against a 23 year old seasoned runner. The allowance is to encourage precocious talent to try against the very best in the world.

Of the first 7 home in the arc 5 were 3yo's, I agree with a certain amount of weight concession but 8lb, 11lb for fillies seems a little extreme when you consider that the 3yo's are nearly 4yo's by October?

actually 6 of the first 8 home were 3yo's

Of course I'm serious,dena. Look at the results for the past 11 years.
3yo: 78 runners 9 wins 9 places. (11.5% and 23%)
4 yo and up :94 runners 2 wins 15 places (2.1% and 16%)
Besides,at this time of year 3 year olds are very close to full maturity.
They are closer to the human equivalent of 18 not 15.

So, 11.5% winning ratio will mean that they have a losing ratio to older horses of 88.5%. Flawed logic just comparing 3 and 4yo, what about the older generations?

Let's put it this way,Den.. from 11 races 3 year olds won 9, 4 year olds and up (if you read my post again you'll see I included older horses)
2 wins.

I believe that French jumpers peak early 8yrs ?

so in that contex the French Bred 3Yr may be a few Lbs in front ?

16 winners in the last 20 years and denathorn asks if we are serious.

its amazing that all these who are complaining that the 3yr old fillys weight allowance is oviously

too great and most unfair.

didn't take advantage of a bet to nothing 9/2 shot where some firms were paying 4 places each way

hindsight is a wonderfull thing

It is the 3 year old allowance full stop, not just fillies. The evidence is there 16 out of 20.

Of course I'm serious,dena. Look at the results for the past 11 years.
3yo: 78 runners 9 wins 9 places. (11.5% and 23%)
4 yo and up :94 runners 2 wins 15 places (2.1% and 16%)

as always, you have to ask a question about "stats".
How many of those older horses were classic winners? Whereas the 3yo reps are usually jam packed with classic winners, the older horses just aren't represented by horses of the same calibre or ability - they're all at stud, injured, retired, had too much racing etc.

Of the eight older horses in this year's Arc, just one was a classic winner.... and he finished 2nd

Of the nine 3yos, 5 were classic winners. And they finished 1st, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 12th (St Leger winner).

So rather than saying the 3yos have an advantageous weight allowance, maybe they are just simply the best horses in the race?

After all, it would hardly be surprising to discover that "form" works out in arguably the best horse race in the world, would it?

Pedrobob is correct. One stat man was quoting how poorly 5yo have done in the race but how many top class horses stay in training to 5yo. Most are sub G1 and having a go for the prestige. One thing I would comment on with regards to the Champion is the seemingly poor average entry compared to the Arc. It really is a poor relation to the Arc in terms of horses it attracts

In that case pedrobob, you've just made an additional case for removing the weight for age allowances!

Why should there be a weight allowance? Why is it necessary to try to even things out and give the younger horses a better chance?

Because the ideal of horseracing is which is the fastest , not strongest. Ideally they would just race against each other at level weights (carrying no weight at all) and then it would be perfectly fair for a 3YO v 4YO or older .

As it is a jockey is required to point them in the right direction so this makes it problematic as a test of speed . If a lion raced a cheetah and they both had a baboon jockey , then the lion would win easily, but that tells you nothing about which is actually faster.

So weight for age is meant to rectify this and give us the result you'd get if the horses genuinely raced each other without anything slowing them down.

It's a perfectly fair concept, though as people have said , maybe the scale chosen is debatable .

off level weights treve still would have won. no idea what the OP is going on about. sounds like sore loser.
i dint fancy treve but admit that i was very wrong. she looks outstanding. the arc is such a great race. so many magnificent fields and performances thru teh years.

If a lion raced a cheetah and they both had a baboon jockey , then the lion would win easily,

I'm presuming the baboon must have fell off the cheetah because it was going too fast?

racingstar 07 Oct 13 19:08 Joined: 22 Oct 08 | Topic/replies: 2,590 | Blogger: racingstar's blog
To summarise,you said it would not win.
It wins pulling a Trent Barge and now you "might" Lay it for next year's race.
You could not make it up!

LOL Great post

Entirely in agreement about the advantage 3-y-o get in the Arc, and fillies especially have a good record.  Nevertheless, it does remain that 3-y-o have the considerable potential to improve; it is always noteworthy to assess closely the merits of a 3-y-o that has been 'put away' in July and August and then brought back for the Arc, perhaps with a prep race in September.  It is this pattern of allowing for development which also gives them a considerable edge if properly prepared.  I think this is a reason French trainers have such a good record in the race, especially with 3-y-o horses, as they tend to be more sympathetic towards developing their horses in this way.

Having said all this the 4/1 with **** about Treve winning the 2014 Arc is a good bet at the moment!  She was tremendous on Sunday and it is clear there is intent already to campaign her with the 2014 Arc as her goal.  Good luck to all involved.

If a lion raced a cheetah and they both had a baboon jockey , then the lion would win easily, but that tells you nothing about which is actually faster.

unless you have  booked John McCririck for the Cheeatah, then I'll lay lenny the lion for all my bank please

The baboon weighs almost as much as the cheetah so why lay the lion?

It's over - brilliant .......moving on.

I'm presuming the baboon must have fell off the cheetah because it was going too fast?


The Cheetah would not go so fast carrying , as Hippie says , an animal weighing as much as it does.

The point is , the strength of the animal comes into play when an equal weight has to be carried , and so it is no longer a pure test of speed.

Ideally Horse Racing would work like Greyhound Racing but the jockey is an  unfortunate necessity. The idea of weight for age is to replicate what would happen if the horses all ran the course without jockeys .

It might aswell rain until September..........just saying.

Who gives a flying f+ck about a lion or cheetah....... Treve is my new Arkle, Redrum, Frankel and Sts rolled in to one. 4/1? you have never, EVER had a better shot at making some real ££ instead of the make-believe monies you have protested right now. Get on, do-it now, she is {injury permitting} the proverbial 'best bet of your life' to win next years arc. I don't give a f+ck if she gives them 3, 8, 10lbs she will still win, and I am NOT French, I am English and I know a super horse when I see one!

Quote me in a year, see if I am wrong. I will not be wrong and what's more I will be sunning myself on the shores of Bondi beach, just as you could, if you just BELIEVE!

Weight for age has always generated debate. Four/five year old chasers were winning too many novice chasers so the allowance was reduced. There may  be a case for doing the same on the flat but many more countries would have to agree. We may have changed the relative ability of 2/3/4yos by selective breeding over the last 50 years. More 3yo's were retired to stud in the eighties and nineties and so the precocious ones that won the King George, Arc etc. have been getting the best mares and will perhaps produce offspring that are relatively more mature.

they are considering reducing the allowance for fillies and mares as results in group races over the last few years seem to favour the females.

I think it's only the Arc where fillies seem to have a good record against colts / geldings.

How many fillies getting a 5lbs allowance trained in UK have been dominant in Group 1 company against males last 10-15 years? Few and far between, you can argue they need a bigger allowance, not smaller

Why not give Scottish horses an allowance? They haven't won many Arcs or KGs.

This whole 'allowance' business is basically flawed for so-called championship races. They shouldn't be referred to as championship races. They should be referred to as allowance races.

Treve's win is actually dimished by the allowance system. She's so good, that she'd probably have won the Arc without any allowance whatsoever - either age or gender, and she'd be one of the very few 3yo fillies to have done so. Instead, there are loads of them, so the sport has to be content with the style, rather than the substance.

*diminished

There's an argument for reviewing the WFA allowance scale imo, but I don't see why it should be scrapped altogether.

However one fact which has not received due consideration is the massive weight allowance 3 year olds and inparticular 3 yr old fillies receive from older horses.

Yes, because obviously no-one considers that at all when analysing the Arc in recent years, in light of the record of 3yos in the last two decades

Why do people keep going about the fillies, it's the 3 year old allowance full stop.

Most of these 'Weight-for-Age' complaints - are a 'knee-jerk' reaction to recent events.

Never better exampled as by the King George and Queen ElizabethII Stakes at Ascot.

Following years on the race being won by outstanding 3-yr-olds such as  ....

NOJINSKY - MILL REEF - THE MINSTREL - SHERGAR - DANCING BRAVE - NASHWAN ...
- and then the wide-margin winner GENEROUS -

Calls were made to 'do away' with the Weight-for-Age' Allowance.

Since those heady days  ....

3-yr-old have won just 6 of the 22 renewals -
with just ONE in the last 10 -
- and 3 in the last 18 .... including GALILEO.

16 out of the last 20 in the Arc.

The King George run in July opposed to the Arc in October surely makes a difference.

Those King George stats are misleading onlooker, very few good 3yo's seem to contest the race in recent years, 2006/7/8 not one 3yo contested the race. In 2010 one 3yo contested the race Nathaniel who won, in 2011 one 3yo contested the race a 20/1 rag and this year the two 3yo's finished 2nd and 3rd. 2004/5 only one 3yo contested, Tycoon 2004 16/1 unpl and Eswarah 9/1 unpl.

2010 Cape Blanco was r/up to easy winner Harbinger with Workforce disappointing
2009 the 3yo's were 4th and 5th with 125/1 O'Brien pacemaker making up the numbers.
2003 Alamshar won with the other 3yo Kris Kin in 3rd.
2002 No 3yo took part.
2001 Galileo won.
2000 Only 2 rags took part for the 3yo's.

Usually the best three year olds are retired at the end of the season so do not get a chance to defend their crown. This shrews the figures in favour of the three year olds as they often don't have to race against the best of the previous generation.

There were only 8 older horses in the field and most of them were no hoppers. Six of them at odds of 40-1 and over.
Last year 3 of first 4 were older horses. Weight for age works fine.