******* Kentucky Derby Preview *******

Horse x Horse Spotlights & Prediciton

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#1 Black Onyx – Scratched

#2 Oxbow – Form leaves him well short of the standard required but bred to stay 10 furlongs but both the trainer and jockey know what it takes to win around here. Lukas and Stevens teamed up in 95 to win the Derby for Michael Tabor’s unfancied long shot Thunder Gulch.

#3 Revolutionary – Represents another set of winning connections in Todd Pletcher, Calvin Borel and WinStar Farms who sent out Super Saver to win the Derby 3 years ago. His win in the Wither’s was simply sensational (you really have to YouTube this one). He won that day because he wanted too! Most horses would’ve bottled it but he didn’t. Proved he had matured a lot himself when winning the Louisiana Derby last time out with a sustained lung bursting rally from way back. This is horse who is bred for the trip, represents powerful connections, brings top form into the race, been working well, has a top class draw considering the jockey and most importantly has the absolutely heart of a champion!

#4 Golden Soul – Maiden winner whose just making up the numbers. Well held by quite a few of these today.

#5 Normandy Invasion – Another horse who would actually qualify for a Non-Winners-Of-Two but unlike Golden Soul this fella brings a bit more to the Derby picture. 2nd in the Remsen to Overanalyze in the Remsen who came out and won the Arkansas Derby and then a fine staying on 2rd off a slow pace to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial last time out. Ought to run a big race and capable of being in the shakeup at the business end but needs to stop being a big baby and put it all in for me.

#6 Mylute – I’ve really bit smitten with the Midnight Lute’s but not as much as Mylute’s jockey Rosie Napravnik . Ran the race of his life when 2nd in a pitch black duel in the stretch vs Revolutionary last time in the Louisiana Derby. Needs to show more fight today and the jockey is extremely capable of getting the best out of him….rode a fine race a few years back on Pants On Fire. Maybe if she just holds onto him a shade longer than last time we might see more from him today.

#7 Giant Finish – Yeah I’ll give this one a miss…

#8 Goldencents – Represents last year’s winning trainer Doug O’Neill. Busted the Flashback Kentucky Derby dream last time out in the Santa Anita Derby when he showed tremendous speed and class to turn away the challenge of Flashback and win a shade cosily recording a very smart BSF in the process. Well drawn to be on the front end again and has to be a major player in the race especially considering how slow some of the East Coast Derby Trials have been. Will be one of the first to make his bid for glory at the top of the stretch!

#9 Overanalyze –  Won the Grade2 Remsen to sign off his 2 year old campaign when he just go the better of Normandy Invasion but soundly put his place by Vyjack in the Gotham Stakes on his first start this year. Not sure what went wrong that day…maybe it was just race fitness being his first start of the year. Bounced back in brilliant style to take the Arkansas Derby and punch his ticket for the Derby. I was very taken with the Arkansas win….he finally put it all together and we saw the real Overanalyze for the first time. Should be cherry ripe for today and a legitimate player.

#10 Palace Malice – Trainer and Jockey won last night’s Kentucky Oaks with Princess of Sylmar and this is a similarly priced outsider. First time blinkers will need to bring about dramatic improvement as he’s soundly held by both Revolutionary and Mylute from the Louisiana Derby and Java’s War in the Bluegrass. Stamina in spades so maybe Mike Smith will make full use of that and have him on the front end most of the way.


#11 Lines of Battle – UAE Derby winner representing Aidan O’Brien and significant that Ryan Moore has given up all his rides at Newmarket today for this one. What does it mean? Does he really believe LOB can be in the shake up or and this is bit zany….is he here as a pacemaker for Verrazano who Coolmore have a stake in? Conspiracy theories aside, Lines of Battles, actually has more of chance than some of the representatives that Aidan has sent over in the past. He’s got a very strong Dirt pedigree by War Chant out of Dam that’s related to a whole host of Dirt performers including Darby Creek Road who finished 3rd to Affirmed and Alydar in the ’78 Belmont Stakes. Kickback won’t be too much of issue as he’s handled it well enough on his synthetic starts and he shouldn’t get run off his feet like Daddy Long Legs was last year. He’s not your typical O’Brien representative and could be a nice curve ball at a very long price. Has a flipping mountain to climb form wise though.

#12 Itsmyluckyday – After a pretty rough two year old campaign he’s looked a revitalised horse this year. More mature and more business-like in his performances. Went 2 for 2 with ultra-smart wins in the Gulfstream Derby and then the Holy Bull where he comfortably saw off the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile hero Shanghai Bobby.  Comfortably put in his place by Orb in the Florida Derby but the stable have pointed out this week that the Florida Derby wasn’t the target and that he’ll be 100% spot on today. I suppose if that’s true and you ultimate plan was the Kentucky Derby then he’s got a shot as he really was on a roll and building huge momentum for the Derby. Think I’ll pass though.

#13 Falling Sky – Well held by few of these most notably Overanalyze and Verrazano

#14 Verrazano – Owned by the mighty LET’S GO STABLE and Coolmore  Huge powerful stride and reminds me a lot of Point Given. You just know he’s got a serious engine and every time he run he’s just left me with the impression that we haven’t seen the best of him and there’s still a helluva lot more to come. Undefeated 4 from 4 with smash up victories in the Tampa Bay Derby (Java’s War 2nd and franked the form by winning the Bluegrass) and the Wood Memorial where he turned away Vyjack’s challenge at the top of the stretch and still had plenty left to see off the fast finishing Normandy Invasion. Big chance, undefeated, Pletcher, Johnny V, improving all the time…very tempting.

#15 Charming Kitten – Has a lot of ground to make up form wise…..well held by Java’s War and Palace Malice from the Bluegrass.

#16 Orb – Serious Contender. Won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream but displayed extreme versatility when overcoming a severe lack of pace in the Florida Derby to win very comfortably. Been working the house down this week at Churchill with one impressive work out after another. He’s got the talent, he’s got the engine, will stay and has a jockey in Joel Rosario whose been almost invincible as of late. Don’t think there’s another in the race whose better equipped to deal with all of the challenges a Derby can throw at them and he’s got the class….ooooozes it.

#17 Will Take Charge – Came from well off the pace to nail his stablemate Oxbow in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes last time. Will need to take another massive step forward to be a player in this.

#18 Frac Derby – 2nd to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby, 7th to Orb in Florida Derby, 8th to Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull…..Mountain to climb.

#19 Java’s War – Soundly beaten by Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby but that was his first start of the year and came on nicely for it with a resounding last to first win in the Bluegrass Stakes. Will need to tremendous luck if he’s to repeat that win. Outside post irrelevant as he was going to be dropped out the back anyway. Big chance if there’s a pace meltdown.

#20 Vyjack – Started to go on a roll in New York with smart wins in the Jerome and then a scintillating win in the Gotham but soundly turned away by Verrazano in the Wood Memorial but it should be noted that he had more or less qualified for the Derby at the stage so didn’t really need to leave his Derby chances in New York that afternoon. Overcoming stall 20 is a pretty big challenge but not as big as his pedigree’s which doesn’t exactly scream 10furlongs. Best chance would be hope for a pace meltdown and replicating that big Gotham Stakes performance. 

Verdict

Orb is a massive danger to all especially given his breath taking workouts this week. He’s absolutely primed for a big run but I’ve been impressed with Verrazano from the moment he step foot onto a racecourse and he’s my number 1 pick. He was pretty short in the market but as the money’s flown in for the likes of Orb and few others he’s drifted out to a very backable 6/1. Revolutionary has a heart of a champion and I liked how he put everything together in the Louisiana Derby last time. At 9/1 I can’t leave him out of the equation with Mr Kentucky Derby Calvin Borel on board. Finally as far as complete outsiders go I can’t resist a very small win place and show on Lines Of Battle. Looks pretty short with the UK firms but he’ll be an absolute humdinger of a price Stateside tonight. 

1st Verrazano
2nd Revolutionary
3rd Lines of Battle

Good luck!!!

:o

ELG