Dawn Approach

ah ffs are you trying to say jim would put us away, he is straight as a .................................car salesman.

Wildman wont thank me for this but DA is back tomorrow, at Goodwood, and takes on Toronado and Dec., Of War with some others having a go. Rain has fallen in Goodwood today, and as we saw Garswood appreciated it, and got a deserved win in the feature. Delighted for R. Fahey.   I was of the opinion earlier over the week/end that Toronado would get his turn this time,but with the rain, and of course the watering that took place, its good old DA to win, again for JIm+K Manning.

Any thoughts this time, layers or backers........Wildman come in from the cold....

Declaration of War is a massive price IMO.I may be missing something, but Dawn Approach and Toronado seem to be attracting all the attention due to the renewed rivalry. The going will certainly not be a hindrance to DOW, and A'OB is not here just to make up the numbers. The way the horse bolted up last time suggests he is in great nick again again and has the necessary to more than shake up the supposed match!

Bolted up last time at Ascot that should read!

DOW got beat at Sandown last time by Al Kazeem, only second by default.

I the ground gone against Toronado, pretty sure it will be ok for Jims fella as he used to cut in Ireland........

Form still looks good. Certainly better value at over 5-1 compared to evens and 2's the other pair. The beating of Elusive Kate doesn't look too bad now either. This horse has form on a par if not better than the front two.

if you were gonna oppose the front two I would do it with Gregorian who has similar form to DOW but is a much bigger price

personally I will be laying Toronado in the place market

Fair point about Elusive Kate form but I think she definitely stripped fitter in subsequent races for her run in the Queen Anne.

It's Dawn Approach for me.

Gets 8lb wfa from DOW, won the SJP despite a less than ideal preparation due to the Derby debacle (Bolger must so wish he'd run Trading Leather in the Derby).

Hughes claims Toronado was unlucky in SJP but, to my eye, he was no more hampered than DA during the race and could n't reel him in despite having plenty of time to do so. Just watched SJP back again and DA took a fierce hold for first three furlongs but still won.

If he settles better and gets a decent lead from Leitir Mor, I think we might see something special tomorrow.

For me, biggest threat to him is his behaviour and demeanour pre-race and during the early stages.

Not sure if he's a bet but if a couple of firms stick their head above the parapet and go 6/4 in the morning, I'd want to be on.

I can see reasons to at least look beyond the front two for sure.

Not sure I agree the form is quite as good and is DOW slightly better over further?

Also I always think this race favours 3yos on these terms.   

Unoriginal but I think the fav is most likeley and around the right price.

see the fav is pretty much nailed on for one of the first two places meaning Toronado is being put up as odds on to beatthe others and I do not see that at all

rain softened ground all wrong, so I am happy to lay him for a chunk in the place

If I was certain that DA would not become headstrong and free during the race then I would be more than afraid. My idea of the outcome is not the duel many expect. One of the front two will not perform IMO.I don't know which one, and on that score I fully expect a grs

Grw

Great run from DOW .Place bet is better value than a win bet on fav. Sorry about previous post. Kindle text is a messy business.

Will be interesting GL with your bets guys

1.57 to be placed Toronado? are you fecking kidding me

I make it 1.8 at least

43 days off and Dawn Approach will be fresher than in the St James.

There is a feeling with DA that he will always find more, a bit like Giants Causeway at his peak in battle quality. I doubt very much that Toronado will be tough enough.

I wouldn`t get to excited abot Declaration of War and his form with Elusive Kate. EK is was very keen that day and she excels against her own sex, big difference in this sphere i think. Also on DOW the form of the Queen Anne is way behind that needed to beat Dawn Approach.

judo

This has been a long relationship with you and Toranado. Do you still hold on to your previous theory that he is slow?

yes

thought so

it's not a theory, it's based on speed ratings and he is yet to produce a Group 1 class speed figure, unlike DA who produced at least 2 top notch efforts on the clock as a juvenile but not yet done so as a 3yo

I don`t normally get too involved in TS figures but he is 2nd best in this race and probably the 2nd best 8f 3 year old on offer.

in this race yes but still not yet produced a smart time in any race

But he is 2nd best TS horse in this race judo and last time out from A-B he managesd to get within a shd of DA. He can`t be that slow, he looks to have nore speed than Declaration of War especially over a mile.

**TYPO`S CAUSED BY ALCO APPLE JUICE

ffs can you not understand a simple point you argumentative fecking ****?

my only point is he is yet to produce a performance on the clock that marks him down as a genuine Grade 1 horse. I can make that statement because I've been following and interpreting these ratings for over 25 years, so I know what level represents top class/group 1 ratings, and what falls short

and he is quite some way short so far

get it? ffs

It's not actually the case that Dawn Approach took a "fierce hold for the first 3f" and that was a the commentator trying to make a story where there wasn't one after the Derby run. The horse was a little keen very early on but settled beautifully early enough and for the vast majority of the race too.

I personally think Toranado was affected more by the bumping in the SJP that DA was but still had time to get back up but certainly wasn't helped by the run of the race. I'm also not convinced a mile is ideal for DA now at this stage of the season either but after the Derby you can understand why they went back to a mile but its a stiff mile at Ascot and I wouldn't be totally surprised to see him being done for toe at Goodwood, although wouldn't be surprised either if his class got him home all the same.

I'd go for Toronado to reverse the form despite unlucky losers often still getting beaten by the same horse next time anyway but I just feel if Hughes can time it right that he might outspeed DA on the day.

Yet his form equates to this race yet you ignore it.

Judo you, i have pointed out your blind spots before but to suggest Toronado is slow is like saying Bob`s Worth can`t win the Gold Cup after a lay off!! Yet he always produced his top mark after a lay off and Toronado has produced his top mark against tomorrows favourite.

Dip Sh1t!

Just watched it again, ima - DA did pull fairly hard in the early part of the race, maybe 'fierce hold' is a slight exaggeration but equally 'settled beautifully early enough' understates what happened - in fact, Hughes in his RP column on Sat acknowledged that DA did n't settle and he had a pretty good view.

Watching the interference again, I'm actually more convinced that Dawn Approach got the worst of it, he was almost the meat in the sandwich between Magician and Toronado.

Toronado might also have had a harder race in the sense that he got a few more cracks with the whip than the winner.

Is this a huge error by Ballydoyle to let the Great RL Moore sit on the sideline when this race is going to be very tactical and imho JPo'B is not tactically astute.........

If the weather forecast is right, we could be looking at proper soft ground.

Given this thread has been brought back up, perhaps it's relevant to revisit Wildman's view. DA had a prolonged 2YO campaign, and this season he has been peaked for a Guineas, a Derby and Royal Ascot. My 6th sense is telling me there is going to be a point where it catches up with him, and perhaps those free-going tendencies are a sign of a colt on the verge of going over the top. That said, he continues to amaze with his toughness and constitution, but my gut feeling is that Toronado will gain his revenge tomorrow.

But will it be enough for outright victory?
DOW is a strapping, powerful colt, for whom soft ground will hold no fears. So not sure how much of a concern conceding the wfa is, he certainly looks built to concede it.

Three year olds are far from world beaters IMO. DA has too many quirks now for me, and Toronado is no better. Sticking with the older brigade.

He was keen early on ReaseHeath and granted he pulled a bit early and threw his head around a little but the commentator made for more of that for effect than there was actually there because of the Derby run but the horse was settled by the 6f to go pole, and even then pulled no more that early than the likes of Toronado, Dundonnell and George Vancouver. Despite being drawn in one of the middle stalls DA ended up on the outer early on and with a clear view of the front but soon settle when Manning brought him back inside for some cover behind other runners.

I agree that DA probably felt the actual force of any bumping more than Toronado but he was already about a length up on Toronado at the time and maintained that just after the bump, whereas I think the effect of them getting bumped hindered Toronado more as he was already a length down but was coming there with the momentum of a sweeping run where any interruption to that would have been crucial.

Of course it goes without saying that it affected DA too but he still had that extra length buffer to help him. Having said that though, I've already said there was enough time for Toronado to get back up but it still would have taken a big effort and the interference didn't help his cause with Hughes having to try to get a second race winning run out of the horse from that length down position.

Paddypower 11/8 NOW !

Dawn approach is the best horse you have seen this year what beats this machine over a mile. best miler I have seen this year good luck if your backing against it LOL

Could easily be pulling Mannings arms out of the sockets on this track.I would hate to be on it and watching!

11/8? will be 3.0 at least when it doesn't settle, Nap!

The pulling hard thing was always less of an issue than many made out based largely on one run.

Strong fractions throughout with a very fast overall time given the ground. Might just explain why he didn't pull today...

best horse won, only thing I got right was that we'd see something special, in fairness the horses are very closely matched and if they meet again on Champions Day the way the race is run might well determine the outcome.

I've a feeling we might see them both over 10f next though but in different races - Toronado at York and DA in the Irish Champion - connections thoughts must start to wonder towards enhanced stud values a G1 10f success would guarantee.

If they were to meet again on Champions Day and Farhh were to make the same race in his Lockinge form, it would be an appropriate finale.