SWC and Long Run drinking in the last chance saloon?

I know I can be forgiven for being biased but surely Long Run wins today? I know SDC beat him at Cheltenham but I have never really rated him and he had a very hard race that day. This time Long Run has an easy lead going RH on an up and down stiff track and soft ground. If he jumps Ok he must win, mustn't he? First Lieutenant isn't good enough and nor are the rest. NH reckons he is working well so this must be one of his easiest races to date.