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4.40 Newmarket, 4yo+ Group 3, 9f
An interesting race which looked like having a bigger field at the start of the week, but has ended up with only 6 runners.
From the last 42 runnings, there have been 30 winners aged 4.
8 were aged 5, 2 aged 6 and 2 aged 7.
From the last 12 runnings, we have the following winner profile:
- RPR 103+ (107+ if more than 3 runs)
- Won over 8f
- Placed in a group race, or won at the highest level contested
- Making seasonal debut (10/13) or had 1 run (all 3 finished 1st or 2nd in the Doncaster Mile)
One runner been out this season:
Premio Loco – age 9 (2 years older than any winner), has 5 more runs than any winner. Comes from fnishing 5th in the Winter Derby (10f).
Next the 4yo seasonal debutants:
Bonfire – 2 wins, 5 runs, RPR 117, Won G2 over 10f
Stipulate – 2 wins, 11 runs, RPR 112, won Listed over 9f, placed in a G3
Older horses:
Proud Chieftain – RPR 99 puts him 8lb lower, won at class 2, not placed at listed in 4 tries
Boom and Bust – won a class 2, but only placed 3rd in listed in 2 tries
Mull of Killough - age 7, same as 2 winners. They had 32 and 33 runs, MoK has 24 runs. Both had raced this year (in the Doncaster Mile) MoK hasnt.
From the initial criteria, I would want Bonfire and Stipulate.
Bonfire – has RPR 2lb higher than any previous 4yo winner. Has won a Group 2 over 10f, which 2 other winners did.
Stipulate – RPR is average for 4yo winners, has won a listed at Newmarket over 9f and 3rd in a Group 3 over C&D which match up well. Finished 4l behind Mull of Killough in a G3 over C&D last October, after being blocked for a run 2f out. With a clear run, an expected 4lb improvement on the Weight For Age scale, I would expect Stipulate to finish ahead. That was Stipulte’s 11th run, but MoK’s 23rd run.
I would want to cover stakes by having a saver on Stipulate.
Selection:
Bonfire – 80% stakes
Stipulate – 20% stakes
http://spreadsheetracing.wordpress.com/
An interesting race which looked like having a bigger field at the start of the week, but has ended up with only 6 runners.
From the last 42 runnings, there have been 30 winners aged 4.
8 were aged 5, 2 aged 6 and 2 aged 7.
From the last 12 runnings, we have the following winner profile:
- RPR 103+ (107+ if more than 3 runs)
- Won over 8f
- Placed in a group race, or won at the highest level contested
- Making seasonal debut (10/13) or had 1 run (all 3 finished 1st or 2nd in the Doncaster Mile)
One runner been out this season:
Premio Loco – age 9 (2 years older than any winner), has 5 more runs than any winner. Comes from fnishing 5th in the Winter Derby (10f).
Next the 4yo seasonal debutants:
Bonfire – 2 wins, 5 runs, RPR 117, Won G2 over 10f
Stipulate – 2 wins, 11 runs, RPR 112, won Listed over 9f, placed in a G3
Older horses:
Proud Chieftain – RPR 99 puts him 8lb lower, won at class 2, not placed at listed in 4 tries
Boom and Bust – won a class 2, but only placed 3rd in listed in 2 tries
Mull of Killough - age 7, same as 2 winners. They had 32 and 33 runs, MoK has 24 runs. Both had raced this year (in the Doncaster Mile) MoK hasnt.
From the initial criteria, I would want Bonfire and Stipulate.
Bonfire – has RPR 2lb higher than any previous 4yo winner. Has won a Group 2 over 10f, which 2 other winners did.
Stipulate – RPR is average for 4yo winners, has won a listed at Newmarket over 9f and 3rd in a Group 3 over C&D which match up well. Finished 4l behind Mull of Killough in a G3 over C&D last October, after being blocked for a run 2f out. With a clear run, an expected 4lb improvement on the Weight For Age scale, I would expect Stipulate to finish ahead. That was Stipulte’s 11th run, but MoK’s 23rd run.
I would want to cover stakes by having a saver on Stipulate.
Selection:
Bonfire – 80% stakes
Stipulate – 20% stakes
http://spreadsheetracing.wordpress.com/
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one and only post in nine years - this must be serious stuff!
Can't disagree with your stats, such as they are, but if you watch the MoK/Stipulate race, it's hard to say that Stimulate was cost anything more than about half a length in that C/D race by 'being blocked', and he was beaten 4 lengths at the end. He at no stage showed a turn of foot in relation to horses around him, and after being clear, he lost ground on MoK, rather than gained it. Everything else in your post has led to you picking the fav, and then having to choose between the 2nd and 3rd favs (who are close in odds) for a saver, and it seems you have (at least partly) used a visual impression of that C/D race to come down in favour of Stimulate, rather than MoK - and I would disagree with the conclusions you have drawn from that race. I'd say that readiness for the race would have more to do with the outcome of the Stimulate/Mull mini-race than anything else, but you don't seem to have looked at any stats regarding recent form of horses from those 2 stables, or form of the 2 stables in previous runnings of this race (I haven't either, but I'd have thought it would have relevance from a stats point of view).
Also I note Bonfire has been gelded since his last run. Do you have any stats on gelded-since-last-run horses in this race in the last 42 runnings? or even just geldings?
As ever, the result will show after the race which stats should have been noted, and which ignored.
Also I note Bonfire has been gelded since his last run. Do you have any stats on gelded-since-last-run horses in this race in the last 42 runnings? or even just geldings?
As ever, the result will show after the race which stats should have been noted, and which ignored.
sj - good point/question. Does the paper tell? The online site can't distinguish whether it's first time or not, and I'm not sure there's any way of finding out online.
At least a gelding will win it this year. Last year, 5 of the 9 runners were geldings, and not one got in the first 3.
At least a gelding will win it this year. Last year, 5 of the 9 runners were geldings, and not one got in the first 3.
jed
just going by old timeform stuff,he was still an entire when last seen on track bhd Mull Of Killough
just going by old timeform stuff,he was still an entire when last seen on track bhd Mull Of Killough
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