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09 Apr 13
19:31
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Date Joined:
16 Jun 11
Is spending 2 hours looking at the form in a race, only to decide it's a no bet race.as you can't find any with the handicap mark/going/track that stands out as an obvious bet. Sometimes end up betting something only half fancy and it doesn't work out as well.
Do you find it similar or doyou have a quicker way to read form?
Do you find it similar or doyou have a quicker way to read form?
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You shouldn't have to spend two hours looking, it should jump off the page
big mistake to use form as you'll lose in the long run....use stats like flatstats
Hi GoldCupWinner, you should know way b4 2 hours if it is a dodgy race. Maybe if you do the pace first ( see if there is usually front runners in the race) then u can visualize what`s going on early on in the race (hoping that they run their usual running styles) you can workout the best horse if all running on merits??. I use Patternform.co.uk (free site) "for Pace Only" and then bring all the other form into my decision. But yes it can take me 3-4 hours on one race but I know I will be having a bet after about 10 mins due to the pace angle.
Must take up the whole week just to play saturdays.
20 races = 60-80 hours work.
That is dedication.
20 races = 60-80 hours work.
That is dedication.
Thx easygold for the site. I guess my problem is that when something doesn't jump off the page I try and soldier on regardless and force the issue instead of just looking at a different race instead. Sometimes it's easy to find a well handicapped horse just through ratings but some times horses have been getting beat off it'smark but when you delve deeper into the form you can see it's been unlucky to keep running into horses who go onto frank the form. When you only bet part time like me it can take longer than for those who watch racing day in day out.
It can have its benefits for future races. I studied the 4.15 Pontefract today for a long time and I'm convinced License to Till is well handicapped but I didn't think Pontefract was the type of track he would shows his best form on so I didn't back it. I can save time in future by just looking out for it and whether conditions are better.
martyrs to their art.
Yeah L.T.Kill is well handicapped and ran ok today but looked in need of the run may go down to 86 after that, he won at Ponte before when raced prominent it looks to me a track with a front runners bias will suit him best in the future.
That 4.15 was a 5 second study race. 2 horses race fit, both tailed on their last run, the rest, how do you know what shape they are gonna show up in?
Absolutely no recent form to go on.
Only persecuting yourself even looking at that race....
Absolutely no recent form to go on.
Only persecuting yourself even looking at that race....
I thought his best form was over an easy 10f or 9f, that's the conclusion I came too and whilst he did win here it was off amuch lower mark and was still a good few pounds below his best form. It was nice to see he was in good heart today and will be a bet in thenear future I suspect.
Agree Roger,should leave all the early season race alone, far too many question marks.
he might target the 10f opening hcap at the york may meeting with that License to Till.
Yesterday, 6:43 PM carragold 16/1 365.
Carragold doesn't run two races alike as has run well in better races but then followed that up with poorer runs in weaker races,has had a comeback run this season beaten alongway behind docs legacy.The last two seasons has won on second run back,tomorrow is off 70 last winning mark on that second comeback run.Mel brittain has a really good strike rate on the turf over 13% last season, thats very high for the quality of his horses.Silvestre de sousa rides and last season of the ten rides he took for mel brittain he won 50%,the race looks wide open the 16/1 looks overpriced now he's had a run.Drawn in the 3 box at a track where the lows have been at a massive advantage in past meetings on soft ground and looks to be one of the few backablr from draw.
You need plenty of reasons to have a bet they don't always have to look winning ones as long as the prices compensate,as todays above.
Carragold doesn't run two races alike as has run well in better races but then followed that up with poorer runs in weaker races,has had a comeback run this season beaten alongway behind docs legacy.The last two seasons has won on second run back,tomorrow is off 70 last winning mark on that second comeback run.Mel brittain has a really good strike rate on the turf over 13% last season, thats very high for the quality of his horses.Silvestre de sousa rides and last season of the ten rides he took for mel brittain he won 50%,the race looks wide open the 16/1 looks overpriced now he's had a run.Drawn in the 3 box at a track where the lows have been at a massive advantage in past meetings on soft ground and looks to be one of the few backablr from draw.
You need plenty of reasons to have a bet they don't always have to look winning ones as long as the prices compensate,as todays above.
Backing at the very start of the flat season is very troublesome as you have an effect at play that distorts form
related selection processes, this effect is called latency ...
Let me explain, The fact is books are formed from the form that is available or from known performance figures for
the trainer and jockey at each particular track but the problem that occurs at the start of the turf is that a lot of horses haven't been running in the last 90 days and so you have to expect a slight distortion or inaccuracy to the actual form that is (unexposed)form so to speak. If you check this table I have prepared for all the turf races in April and may
2004-2011
you can see clearly that horses that have won or placed last time are making a considerable loss and horses that have finished out of the frame are making a slight profit and you don't need to be Einstein to work out why this is.
Seasonal effects are the biggest effects you will find in racing and you must consider the game of backing or laying as a seasonal science if you want to achieve maximum profits...
Return at Estimated or actual Betfair Odds
Results broken down by Finishing Position of Horse in its Most Recent Race
April-may 2004-2011 Turf Only
related selection processes, this effect is called latency ...
Let me explain, The fact is books are formed from the form that is available or from known performance figures for
the trainer and jockey at each particular track but the problem that occurs at the start of the turf is that a lot of horses haven't been running in the last 90 days and so you have to expect a slight distortion or inaccuracy to the actual form that is (unexposed)form so to speak. If you check this table I have prepared for all the turf races in April and may
2004-2011
you can see clearly that horses that have won or placed last time are making a considerable loss and horses that have finished out of the frame are making a slight profit and you don't need to be Einstein to work out why this is.
Seasonal effects are the biggest effects you will find in racing and you must consider the game of backing or laying as a seasonal science if you want to achieve maximum profits...
Return at Estimated or actual Betfair Odds
Results broken down by Finishing Position of Horse in its Most Recent Race
April-may 2004-2011 Turf Only
| pos LTO | Bets | Wins | Win Strike Rate | ROI % |
| 1st | 3710 | 567 | 15.30% | 91.10% |
| 2nd | 3165 | 464 | 14.70% | 88.30% |
| 3rd | 3217 | 421 | 13.10% | 105.60% |
| 4th | 3261 | 307 | 9.40% | 91.90% |
| 5th | 3137 | 293 | 9.30% | 106.70% |
| 6th | 2988 | 268 | 9.00% | 124.70% |
| 7th or worse | 14557 | 868 | 6.00% | 120.10% |
| Fell | 72 | 5 | 6.90% | 50.30% |
| Pulled Up | 197 | 9 | 4.60% | 108.00% |
| Not Run Before | 371 | 28 | 7.50% | 110.00% |
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