so called experts/tipsters

Joined: 18 Apr 2006
Posts: 18555


   
Post Posted: 05 Apr 2013 20:24     Post subject:    
THE GRAND NATIONAL

AURORAS ENCORE 100-1

I'm pinning half my National stake (the other half being on Chigago Grey) on a potential 'grand plot' by one of the game's fairer handicap masters - Sue Smith. It seems to me that she has aimed her 11yr old stayer, Auroas Encore, specifically at The Grand National. I know a few others have similar thoughts (Nickf88 especially).

Top class staying credentials

Last April Auroras Encore ran in the Scottish Grand National off a mark of 143 on good ground, denied by a head to a horse carrying 9lbs less weight. That was over 2f less than the Aintree Grand National, and the fact that this was the best performance of the horse's career, hints than an extra 2f is no hindrance, and could even bring out more. The horse has been campaigned for this race in preference to the Scottish National, and since Ayr its performances have been poor:

UR - 68l -PU - 24l - 46l - F - 53l

That's bad form, but you can't drop 6lbs in the weight in half a dozen runs, and get your horse back to rude health, with trail blazing efforts. The goal has been achieved - his mark is down to 137 (2lbs below its best win and almost 6lbs well in on Scottish National form).

Career wins chasing:

C4 HcCh 6K 129
C4 NvCh 6K
C2 NcHcCh 12K 129
C1 HcCh 28K 139
C2 HcCh 32K 134
C1 HcCh 102K 143* (*lost a head)

This experienced chaser has run over fences 23 times, winning 6 races. He has only ever fallen once, although has also unseated on one occasion. Nevertheless, the horse is a fairly solid proposition to get round. He has not faced the mighty Aintree fences before, however, the horse does have winning hurdles form at the Liverpool venue. Odds of 100-1 are huge - if he gets round and does happen to turn up in the same form displayed in the Scottish National in 2012, then the horse has the ability to run a huge race. There's no way to confidently say a 100-1 shot is guaranteed to run a big race, but at the odds a small bet could give you a very low risk side bet.
_________________

Apologies to anyone who has already read this in another post..

John Duggan gives weekly tips/bets on Irish radio (Today FM) His tip this week was:
Aintree Grand National, 4.15 Saturday: €10 each way on Teaforthree at 16/1; €5 each way on Auroras Encore at 80/1

https://twitter.com/jduggantodayfm
http://www.todayfm.com/sport/tipweek/13-04-04/Thursday_4th_April.aspx

Nice one Happy

Not from me Madhatter, unfortunately!

mugmagnet put it up months ago

RFO is a decent paper to have in your pocket during the big meetings

Gerald Delamere gave it a good write-up amongst his 20 fancies.