Friday Melling Chase Sprinter Sacre

Why is it difficult to believe he can be as good at further than 2m please?

Brave man backs against it

haven't seen this horse stop yet
but agree cue card could be the bet for a place or forecast

Embarrassed to say I'm still to be convinced about Sprinter Sacre.

The 192p rating is laughable for beating an aging, decent horse,
which stumbled badly, whilst the rest literally cantered round, not bothering.

But, I'd be more than happy to watch him 'get better'

I take it Cue card will make the running, flemenstar and Sprinter Sacre will both travel powerfully in behind while For Non Stop cant totallybe discounnted from making the frame given the old roan chase romp on this type of ground and then there is finian's rainbow who finally has his ground. This is a fanstinating race and who will come of the bridle first?

Cue Card will attempt to stretch Sprinters Sacre stamina, but can they get him at it?

Sprinter Sacre is a 177 horse confirmed, Cue Card 171 horse more or less confirmed, Flemenstar 166 Confirmed. Finians Rainbow was a 171 horse, not shown that since 12 months ago, while For non stop is more or less a 165 horse.

Sprinter Sacre should be suited to this trip, yes slightly short test of stamina would improve, but ground is quickening and that will help him. Sure cue card would have liked it slowed down a bit as this is as sharp as he would want it imo to have a chance. Finians Rainbow doesnt stay further then this, rain will kill any chance of a return to form and you have to hope that he can refind his form. Flemenstar is more exposed then most of his rivals and would most probably want a stiffer test of stamina underfoot. For Non Stop should be at his best for this.

Sprinter Sacre should win and no surprise to see 1-3 on offer. For Non Stop at a massive price could run a bigger price then his odds suggest even though he is just below top class

I'm surprised that Flemenstar is taking its chance, its good ground win in the Powers was against fairly ordinary animals, still wouldn't surprise me if they pull it out in the morning and wait for Punchestown in the hope of a truly soft surface.
If it does run then it should try to force the pace in my view and get CC & SS at it in the hope of upsetting their jumping rhythm, watch rather than punt race has to be the common sense call though.

FR the value, imo.

Flemenstar has to bounce out and try and force it and use his jumping. I'm not at all sure that's the plan though, I think they think they have a much faster horse than I think they have. SS is bred to stay 3m and certainly wasn't stopping at Cheltenham. 

I don't think it's much of a betting race, but the way I see it, SS will either hose up, or not finish. By which I mean he will only get beaten if he doesn't stay, or if something goes wrong - fall/injury/illness.  I would go as far as to say I think the least likely position for SS to finish is 2nd. The only way that happens is if he goes clear then gets collared on the line.

If you want to oppose SS, rather than laying him at 1-3, I'd suggest backing CC, FS and FR in forecast combinations.

2008 13th march, masterminded beat qm field by 19l, OR186 3 weeks later was beaten over 2m4f aintree 2/5f

2013 13th march, sprinter sacre beat qm field by 19l, OR188 3 weeks later .. ?? .. over 2m4f aintree 2/5f (ish)

neither mm or ss had won at 2m4f prior to their aintree runs, mm didn't try 2m4f again for another 3 years


still not sure i can lay it though

Great bit of race / runner research but aside from the expectation of history repeating itself the similarities have to end

at the one you accept they are two different animals and SS shapes as though he stays very well indeed and wants further,

stick to the AW RP favs, especially now the horses have peaked and are winding down


Incidentally MM competently flopped at that time in his career and the extra 4 furlongs wasn't the under-lining reason

When the 4 year old S.Sacre got beaten 1 3/4 L on his novice hurdling debut at Ascot 2010,he was too keen and running hard into the bit after a 7 month break from his only 2 bumper races-Wins.
The "Novice Hurdler" that beat him, the 6 year old Frascati Park (Level Weights
Had already ran in 11 races,Winning 3 Bumpers and being placed in 4 Grade 2 Hurdles.

S.Sacre is much more mature,stronger,settles better,goes on any ground and after he has Won today,
Kemptons King George over 3 Miles will be talked about.

""When the 4 year old S.Sacre got beaten 1 3/4 L on his novice hurdling debut at Ascot 2010""

i forgot to state the Distance - (2m 3f 110y) 2m 3½f Good To Soft 11 hdles

Srinter Sacre has produced  seven 140+ speed ratings(rp scale) He is exceptional both to eye and any sort of figures you may produce,the slight worry for me is if he makes his own running - it would be easy for a jockey to misjudge the pace,tactics for those behind may be best served by letting him just do this?

Supposedly the french lot who bred him have no idea why Nicky is running him over 2miles as everything in his pedigree says 3 miles.

Cracking race in prospect....fwiw I backed Flemenstar. very happy they gave up on the Cheltenham dream. This is a far better assignment trip and track wise. Don't forget this fella was pssing ALL OVER them in the LEXUS until he jumped the last and completely emptied out. PSSING ALL OVER THEM. Was a bit sick last time and didn't get the best ride in the world from Lynch but still put in a decent effort. Should be spot on today. 

The opposition is tougher than connections would've hoped but this is what its all about...taking on the best!

Well done to connections of all 3 market leaders for having a go. This is the jumps race of the season. Admirable as he is, Cue Card has been on the go a long time and had to do it the hard way in the Ryanair. Flemenstar is lightly raced and the monster hasn't had a race at all yet this season, so I expect them to dominate the finish.

Great race, i just want to see SS off the bridle.

I don't think I've looked forward to a race this much since Denman took on Kauto Star in the 08 gold cup. I'm not betting but hoping we could witness another special peformance from SS.

The slight negative is the Gold Cup form not working out that well(they started taking turns in beating each other)so maybe not the race we thought it was,and possibly full of plodders?(in which case Fleminstar could be deemed slow?) i hope not.

These are the list of all the great historical horses Sprinter Sacre has beaten, out of Novice company, 
to get him the rating of 3rd greatest chaser in history:

French Opera
I'm So Lucky
Zaynar
Hold Fast
Kinkeel
Kumbeshwar
Sanctuaire
Idarah
His Excellency
Doeslessthanme
Mad Moose
Somersby
Oiseau De Nuit
Sizing Europe
Wishful Thinking
Tataniano
Mail De Bievre

192p

Mr smith got it wrong?

That Wishful Thinking brave for his age!

Why is it difficult to believe he can be as good at further than 2m please?

Glossy, Sprinter could well indeed be the same at 2m4f and further than he is at 2m. But racing history is littered with champions who stretched out too far. Most recently, Henry Cecil knew where to draw the line with Frankel despite the clamour for him to race up to 12f and in this race, connections have had to accept that Flemenstar is not a 3 miler.

Sprinter's Champion Chase win has been totally overrated, imo, and he achieved more when winning the Arkle and again at Sandown in the Tingle Creek this season. He didn't jump anywhere up to his brilliant best last time confirming the view that the form has been overrated, backed up by the time of the race being barely 3-4 lengths quicker than an apparently below par Simonsig / Baily Green managed the day before. Yes they carried 3lbs less, but were racing on officially slower ground (6.0 compared to 6.4 for the Wednesday), though somehow time gurus appear to have the ground riding much slower on the Wednesday.

All little doubts that don't necessarily add up to Sprinter Sacre getting beaten today, but suggesting the odds discrepancy between the front three in the market is completely wrong and would fully expect Sprinter to trade plenty bigger in running.

I don't get this 'greatest horse in history' thing. SS is running in a known restricted division and is why light heavy weights are never classed the same as heavyweights. Running a couple of times a year over 2 miles is not the same as running several times over 3 miles plus. That is why we have Frankel, Black Caviar, Sprinter Sacre, Big Bucks, Hurricane Fly all at the same time, it is because the system allows it. Had Flemenstar not been raced over extended distances he would have clocked up a lengthy run of wins.

I've had my relative fingers burnt with MM in the past so I'm not going down that road again. SS will still probably win and a huge fan of CC but I'd rather be on the horse that has bypassed Cheltenham specifically for this race at the prices.

as poppydog and others rightly ask, what has Sprinter beaten? Yes he has won his last four by 13 (2nd Toubab), 15 (Kumbeshawar) , 14 (Mad Moose) and 19 (Sizing Europe) lengths but assuming Cue Card / Flemenstar jumped cleanly, would you not expect them to hand out 10 length+ beatings to that crew?

Given they are running at their confirmed best trips and jump well today, is anyone expecting Sprinter to win by another 10+ length margin? If not, does that make him a 1/3 chance? He may not have in hand anywhere near as such as some may think...

""Had Flemenstar not been raced over extended distances he would have clocked up a lengthy run of wins.""

His trainer has Never had more than 10 winners in a year,for the past 15 years

but i agree,this horse would have Won a lot more races if kept to 2M 6f or less.

be interesting to see what makes the pace and how quick they go early

I'm pretty sure Cue Card is going to go a decent clip myself

Cue Card doesn't have to lead, but they want a good pace to make it a stamina test.
Very surprised if Flemenstar doesn't lead having been disappointed last twice over 3m, Cue Card prominent, Sprinter Sacre held up to "get the trip", though  that's one of the biggest old wive's tales in racing. As Steve Mellish constantly points out, you either stay or you don't. Starting lengths behind the others at the gate does not make your task any easier

The important thing is getting in a 'blow'. If CC goes off in front and BG sits behind giving his horse breathers, something SWC never did on Long Run, then he could well power by. If CC and Flemenstar take each other on from some way out SS will pick up the pieces a bit like Bob's Worth did in the Gold Cup.

agree Brigust. Vaguely recall an interview with Colin Tizzard saying Cue Card doesn't have to lead, so don't think they will take on Flemenstar in front if that one is going fast enough

"One Man"
Won the Hennessey 3M 2 1/2F, 1994
Won the King George 3M, 1996
Dropped back in trip to Win the Queen Mothers at Chelt 2M, 1998.
Horses have a lot more Flexible speed and stamina than people think.
Coincidentaly "One Man" Died in this race after his Chelt Win

totally agree that all great horses have speed and you can drop them in trip. Aidan O'Brien tells you this for all his champions (!)

Differ in the opinion about stamina, obviously every horse has its limit where it can maintain the same level of form. One Man (won a Hennessy off a light weight), Florida Pearl, First Gold (won over 3m4f in France) etc were complete non-stayers at Cheltenham

One Man also failed to stay 3m+ at Cheltenham on numerous occasions.

doesn't matter who does what at the start only one winner in the end and that is the great Sprinter Scare

I would be willing to lay SS today, given that the trips not its ideal, the course and fences offer a different type of contest, the opposition is the best its faced this season

when it had its optimum conditions it had 3 lengths to spare over CC who was not really perceveered with until between the last two in that contest once passed, but did stay on, and also the fact its improved, might even place lay ss GOOD LUCK
Cheers

7 lengths ^

Sorry my mistake, but will still stick with my view
Cheers

Agree,RP.
SPRINTER sACRE IS THE BEST 2 MILE CHASER I'VE SEEN SINCE FLYINGBOLT BUT AT THIS TRIP AND AT THESE PRICES AGAINST TWO TOP CLASS HORSES I'VE GOT TO TAKE HIM ON

i think too much is being made about the trip, the sire gets plenty that stay further, first hurdle run over the extended two miles is hardly conclusive imo.

can understand the reasoning at the prices though, should be a great race to watch, good luck

Poppydog - are you still banging that drum in not yet being fully convinced about Sprinter Sacre?
I must admit that I was a bit slow with Kauto Star & Denman but not with this chappie.

Hopefully he'll run his race today and change your mind - all the doubters will surely be silenced if he puts in one of his usual exhibitions, as there's some genuine quality in the field.

I did say, I'm hopeful he will get better and become the 2nd, even 1st best horse in NH history.
But currently the 3rd best NH horse ever???

He should win today, but even then.....

....and if by any chance he does get beat today, Timeform and their commercially-necessary ratings
will lose a lot of credibility

If he does get beat today it will be because of the trip not because he has been overrated.....imo.

I get your point about this 'all-time' business, but this is such an exuberant chaser and I haven't seen one that excites me as much - I won't be having a bet  but I want to see him run his race and to enjoy the procession.

FB - do you still think there's a chance the trip will find him out?
I can't see it but if that's the case, I'll hold my hands up - even if he still wins!
I want to see him hard held or preferably galloping right to the line...and I expect that.

I still think it's possible,Navel. Particually as he's against the two best two and a half mile chasers around(except maybe for him of course . He's so good he may well win but I don't think the odds reflect the true situation.

I think his form is a bit over-rated, but potential to be lots better as he has never been asked any sort of a question. Cue Card sets a good standard over perfect C&D though, I expect a career best from him, running to something in the high 170s. Good bet around 6-4 to be in the first 2. I love Flemanstar, but he's a big old fashioned chasing type and the course might be plenty sharp enough for him.

if he wins today very easily not impossible he could go undefeated for at least next 2 years - Is Big Bucks reord of consecutive wins under threat!

Someone give Kauto a call and get him out of retirement to give him a test. Surely Kauto has had enough of break dancing now.

anybody that could not see him leaving his rivals flat footed at the end game in every 2 mile race, thus a proven stayer

needs to stop betting on horses

sounds to me like you need to start
Is it true you dont even bet on here BFF?

He thrashes everything at 2M so that makes him a proven stayer ?


You are one thick twaat,BF.

to see if I horse stays any distance only one way of finding out gentleman.....

Tizzard horses running well, travelling beautifully

just saying....

Maybe Finian's Rainbow will surprise a few people and he could be the one for the F/C at a decent price - ground's in his favour and he's a C&D winner.

i have decided to lay the win pre race,might trade it if he clouts one early who knows

Poor race last year,NG.

sprinter sacre, cue card 1-2

FB - I realise that, but he's got a higher mark than Cue Card & Flemenstar, who might have a bit of a war up front...it may be run to suit Finian's Rainbow to run on for second place.

I'm having a small dabble on the F/C after having said I won't be having a bet.

imperious

wow,

Brilliant . What a horse.

After reading the idiotic posts on here, you realise why 90% are losers!!!!!!!!!!!
1.01      £51,212     
1.02      £21,346     
1.03      £22,062     
1.04      £5,044     
1.05      £18,046     
1.06      £4,298     
1.07      £2,621     
1.08      £8,846     
1.09      £2,843     
1.10      £18,942     
1.11      £6,030     
1.12      £4,100     
1.13      £997     
1.14      £3,272     
1.15      £1,839     
1.16      £626     
1.17      £1,275     
1.18      £5,201     
1.19      £1,539     
1.20      £15,786     
1.21      £1,535     
1.22      £1,202     
1.23      £279     
1.24      £1,063     
1.25      £1,523     
1.26      £595     
1.27      £562     
1.28      £377     
1.29      £947     
1.30      £77,032     
1.31      £14,079     
1.32      £32,931     
1.33      £125,069     
1.34      £287,778     
1.35      £271,033     
1.36      £574,887     
1.37      £1,483,724     
1.38      £1,214,132     
1.39      £228,940     
1.40      £59,474 
1.41      £6,619     
1.42      £1,332     
1.43      £5,056     
1.44      £429     
1.45      £790     
1.46      £5,133     
1.47      £2,429     
1.48      £1,125     
1.49      £269     
1.50      £12,544     
1.51      £4,698     
1.52      £863     
1.53      £1,455     
1.54      £143     
1.55      £155     
1.56      £139     
1.57      £229     
1.58      £204     
1.59      £3,570     
1.60      £474     
1.61      £10     
1.62      £2,793     
1.63      £332     
1.64      £662     
1.65      £1,188     
1.66      £891     
1.67      £4     
1.68      £4     
1.69      £63     
1.70      £727

May be the best I'll ever see. Got to admit he's better than Moscow now.

And fair credit to Cue Card ran a great race.

will stay 4m imo....

Staggering really but at least Cue Card proved beyond all doubt that he is the second best chaser on the planet.

Utter class. Cue Card brilliant too.

What would u do with the winner now

Hats off to Sprinter Sacre and connections, especially Geraghty who was perfect for the horse there

Poppydog.
05 Apr 13 14:01

....and if by any chance he does get beat today, Timeform and their commercially-necessary ratings
will lose a lot of credibility


just fortunate these hyped horses with their commercially-necessary ratings keep pi$$ing up! keep guessing, Einstein

if they want to, they can take him to Punchestown - did n't have a hard race exactly.

I think that would be it for the season if he was mine

Great performance from Cue Card again but SS is just something else.

IF you cant spot an exceptional horse with your eyes then don't try programming a computer what ever happens!

sidthekid

What point are you trying to make ?

Some of us put up opinions. How does that make us "idiots" ?

Congratulations on your 1/3 winner.

could do the Queen Mother, Ryannair and Cheltenham Gold Cup treble next season

Amazed Nicky is saying that distance is far enough it looks like 3 miles wouldn't be a problem to me.

Agreed

Best fact about the great SS is that he was an accident at birth and went to the wrong sire as no breeder would of touched

the sire with a barge pole but just like Desert Orchid who's mum passed hands for 200 quid, you just never cant

plan what mother nature will produce, natural brilliance!

""flyingbolt's
sidthekid
What point are you trying to make ?
Some of us put up opinions.
How does that make us "idiots" ?
Congratulations on your 1/3 winner.""

30% Interest in 7 minutes,is a lot more than most investment W@nkers will earn for you in 1 year.
Why do you lay one of the Greatest horses in the world,
Why doubt he would stay the distance when he ran over it as a 4 year old.
Most Horses that win over 2 Mile hurdles stay 2 1/2 over fences,

1. DOES EVERY 1/3 SHOT YOU BACK WIN ?
2.I DIDN'T LAY HIM. I BACKED AGAINST HIM.
3.HE WAS BEATEN OVER IT AS A 4-Y-O.
4.If I had the time I could list hundreds who didn't.

sid, he's a total mug, claimed the ratings were 'irrelevant' as SS had never tried 2 mile 4 before (if you don't count his run over hurdles of course)

ignore

At least I knew he's tried 2m 4 before,JUDOPRICK.

""1. DOES EVERY 1/3 SHOT YOU BACK WIN ?
2.I DIDN'T LAY HIM. I BACKED AGAINST HIM.
3.HE WAS BEATEN OVER IT AS A 4-Y-O.
4.If I had the time I could list hundreds who didn't. ""

I Bet and Lay odds on shots,inc USA.
I could list Thousands who did if i had the time,