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Bill Turners grandson Ryan While a useful 7lb claimer rides this son of Byron whose progeny have a good record at the track. 39 tries at the track for his male progeny for a 7 wins from an expected 5.3 number of successes, his female progeny have had 47 tries for 8 wins from an expected 4.3.
Ryan rides almost exclusively for his grandad and his 7lb claim must be a distinct advantage on early season 2yo's as his 7 wins from 16 rides in 2yo races before July testifies.
Obviously backing unraced 2yo's is going into the unknown but I would think backing all Turner/ While 2yo's blindly for the next few months would return a level stakes profit.
Ryan rides almost exclusively for his grandad and his 7lb claim must be a distinct advantage on early season 2yo's as his 7 wins from 16 rides in 2yo races before July testifies.
Obviously backing unraced 2yo's is going into the unknown but I would think backing all Turner/ While 2yo's blindly for the next few months would return a level stakes profit.
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win or indeed lose im seriously impressed by your work and your words ..
in fact so impressed just backed it ... and im perfectly happy if it wins or indeed doesnt ... if you dont bet you cant win ..20 quid ... i wish you a good run ..
Expect Hushwing to be along any time soon.
Could you tell me what this means please Grendel?
39 tries at the track for his male progeny for a 7 wins from an expected 5.3 number of successes, his female progeny have had 47 tries for 8 wins from an expected 4.3.
Who exactly expected the 5.3 and 4.3 wins respectively, thank you.
Could you tell me what this means please Grendel?
39 tries at the track for his male progeny for a 7 wins from an expected 5.3 number of successes, his female progeny have had 47 tries for 8 wins from an expected 4.3.
Who exactly expected the 5.3 and 4.3 wins respectively, thank you.
since 1995, Bill Turner 2yos before July with claiming riders
84 winners from 539 runners for 15.6% strike rate
£76.39 profit for 14.2% ROI
More recently last 10 years, 55-332 (16.6%) for £68.94 profit and 20.8%
84 winners from 539 runners for 15.6% strike rate
£76.39 profit for 14.2% ROI
More recently last 10 years, 55-332 (16.6%) for £68.94 profit and 20.8%
yes fully agree
.
Its a massive advantage at this stage in a 2yo's career , indeed its far too much an advantage and certainly needs looking at thats for sure.
lets make this clear Bill isnt just giving his grandson a ride , no he's fully aware that this claim is an easy way of churning out those early season 2yo wins.
Last season he used a selection of apprentices like wonder kid Darren Egan too and of his 16 2yo wins last season 14 were apprentice ridden.
.Its a massive advantage at this stage in a 2yo's career , indeed its far too much an advantage and certainly needs looking at thats for sure.
lets make this clear Bill isnt just giving his grandson a ride , no he's fully aware that this claim is an easy way of churning out those early season 2yo wins.
Last season he used a selection of apprentices like wonder kid Darren Egan too and of his 16 2yo wins last season 14 were apprentice ridden.
All good stuff.
Just one note of caution on While's P/L stats - for 2 of his nice-priced winners, the hot fav in the race went lame.
Just one note of caution on While's P/L stats - for 2 of his nice-priced winners, the hot fav in the race went lame.
Could you tell me what this means please Grendel?
39 tries at the track for his male progeny for a 7 wins from an expected 5.3 number of successes, his female progeny have had 47 tries for 8 wins from an expected 4.3.
Who exactly expected the 5.3 and 4.3 wins respectively, thank you.
I have a spreadsheet which isolates all runs and sums the s.p. %'s .... if you have 25 runs all at 6/1 then you expect 3.57 wins (25* (1/7)). my spreadsheet negates overround so the books are 100%.
39 tries at the track for his male progeny for a 7 wins from an expected 5.3 number of successes, his female progeny have had 47 tries for 8 wins from an expected 4.3.
Who exactly expected the 5.3 and 4.3 wins respectively, thank you.
I have a spreadsheet which isolates all runs and sums the s.p. %'s .... if you have 25 runs all at 6/1 then you expect 3.57 wins (25* (1/7)). my spreadsheet negates overround so the books are 100%.
i have looked at this horse closely.the only disadvantage is it only cost 3.5k.surely thats a massive negative to be backing it at 5/2?
Hushwing, do you honestly think a horse has a better chance of winning with Ryan While (7) on than any (honest) top 20 jockey?
Normally a 7lb claimer is a very bad omen for 2yo's before May, other than Bill Turner's runners they have won 0 races from 87 tries since 2005, Turner's are 6 wins from 40 tries.
are you saying that half a stone in weight doesn't give you an advantage ?!
the question was to dan hardcore,
as usual the forum overlap works its wonder
as usual the forum overlap works its wonder
These early 2yo AW races are often won at the break and Turner's Brocklesby winner bounced out. Evans and Hughes's Brocklesby runners were both sluggish so if we assume theirs have done less stalls work then we can eliminate 4 of today's field. Quite simple really. If only! Good luck with this one grendel.
7lbs plus a decent jockey is an advantage, but you must think riding racehorses is a piece of piss if you'll back anyone just because they're claiming 7lbs. While is only inb his 2nd season so plenty of improvement in him but on last season's form i'd rather have any of the other jockeys in that race riding.
I think pace judgement is key to success of unraced or inexperienced 2yo's, an experienced jockey with thousands of races under his belt will know what pace to go to get home whereas a 7lb claimer doesn't know how to pace the race for optimal performance for the 2yo's ability. You only have to look at apprentices races which are mostly run too fast.
dan at this stage of the season I'm absolutely convinced of it yes, really don't think you can possibly make up for carry an extra half a stone just for being more polished and stronger in the saddle. i also certain Bill agrees.
dan at this stage of the season I'm absolutely convinced of it yes, really don't think you can possibly make up for carry an extra half a stone just for being more polished and stronger in the saddle. i also certain Bill agrees.
One stat negative for Byrons are a 3.9% strike rate first time out which is pretty low.
you'd want it to drift a bit really , be much more confident on the turf or fibresand , the 7lbs factor is less significant on this poly but i think it'll win .
What would be the stat for fto Turner-trained Byrons? I'd have thought fto readiness was more down to the trainer than the sire.
Might be interesting to see how does with them fto over the next couple of years then.
dan
I obviously didn't mean sticking a sack of potatoes on top and claim 7 pounds,
any half decent apprentice claiming half a stone are worth their weight in gold as has been established by all manner of trainers exploiting this in races over the years !
I obviously didn't mean sticking a sack of potatoes on top and claim 7 pounds,
any half decent apprentice claiming half a stone are worth their weight in gold as has been established by all manner of trainers exploiting this in races over the years !
yeah I'd agree with you ged. strangely enough though I just checked all fto stats for Turner and only 5.2%. thought he'd be alot higher. Maybe need to change it to before May or something
no that was all horses. which will include reappearing horses. I'll go and change it
he's had 9 wins from 144 2yo's fto since 2005 but 84 of those were 16/1 or bigger
goes up to 13.5% when its a horse who has never run before ged. that's more like it.not quite sure how to change it to 2yos only.
Surely with unraced 2 yo's they will be wanting to give them a good experience. And a low weighted claimer can rely on his/her underweight to get the horse to win rather than resort to any tactics that may seem unpleasant to the horse.
oh that was a/w only, 6.8% on turf. anyway that's enough. im not really a statsman anway
seems to be drifting now. with money coming for the channon one
yep just backed My Sapphire ew 14/1 2nd , no where near good enough on paper but received 8lbs . it matters guys and more then most appreciate
Having a chunk to back to lay M'selle at 17s
Most expensive of the bunch
Most expensive of the bunch
this Marylin Marquessa been backed to hell , was 20s + 10 mins ago , got on at 14s so should be fun
M'selle for me. Shame there is no stalls training at many yards.
while looks like a very bad rider, horrible riding style
Mselle 24.2 £13.50 £313.15
2.6 £19.13 £49.74
Ref: 26013113220 Bet matched: 14:14 24-Mar-13
2.66 £9.34 £24.84
2.6 £19.13 £49.74
Ref: 26013113220 Bet matched: 14:14 24-Mar-13
2.66 £9.34 £24.84
Theres a lot of difference in a straight track & going round a bend.................esp 1st time.................
wd winners, El Duque looked a difficult ride early on, can't really blame the jock
funny he broke Okish but was soon in the backwash, fair debut tho.
Very Well done Poppydog and Ronald Harris has a fair record for 2YO at lingfield
3-18 17% -8.50
3-18 17% -8.50
kavvie 24 Mar 13 12:30
i have looked at this horse closely.the only disadvantage is it only cost 3.5k.surely thats a massive negative to be backing it at 5/2?
the horse that won the 2:30 beating an O'Brien fav was bought for 3 grand !
i have looked at this horse closely.the only disadvantage is it only cost 3.5k.surely thats a massive negative to be backing it at 5/2?
the horse that won the 2:30 beating an O'Brien fav was bought for 3 grand !
of course but Hannon in the past has shown that it is possible to buy cheap and win on a regular basis !
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