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TOMMYSTEEL
This should revolve around three of them.
TOMMYSTEEL , HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL & TARTAN SNOW
TOMMYSTEEL
Is probably just the form horse here.
Won two Hunters last season in good style, one where it beat another runner here in HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL ( slightly favoured by the weights this time) after nearly unseating the rider two out, a cracking effort after what had happened…….and beat SOME LAD in the other.
This season it has had three runs already, it actually started off in a handicap chase against Brave Spartacus ( won yesterday)..tailed off over a trip far too short & needing the run.
Next time out it was back in a P2P against some good horses, again well beat but the form of that race is working out well….
Last time,after the benefit of those 2 runs… again in a P2P it beat a very decent horse in COQUET HEAD (a winner the time before)..making all & staying on well….. COQUET HEAD is a stable mate of HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL, so we have some idea of how the form is working out.
COQUET HEAD had beaten SOME LAD around 8L last season…..TOMMYSTEEL beat the same horse around 12L in a Hunter Chase. ……
HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL
It was actually odds on fav on its seasonal P2P debut, leading when falling mid race, last time out it was well beat, again against a decent horse in Sea Scout.
As above, it has already been beat by TOMMY STEEL , but is favoured by the weights here, but would have been beaten easier if TOMMY STEEL did not walk through the 2nd last.
I suspect that BOTH might prefer better ground though,
They both ran on the same P2P card last time, with HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL running in the much quicker race, albeit being well beat.
TARTAN SNOW
Not really sure that this is its trip, even though it was just touched off last time over 3m by SACRED MOUNTAIN …another stable mate of HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL… that race was run at a pedestrian pace & might find this a bit harder.
Just cant see anything else getting into it, unless something has improved on what it has shown lately.
There is not much between TOMMY STEEL & HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL , but everything points to TOMMYSTEEL just shading it…TS is usually a decent jumper, whereas HC often hits a one, that could make the difference,
T. Davidson rides again here, has ridden TS in its points & both its Hunter wins…not the most stylish it has to be said, but the horse runs for him.
This should revolve around three of them.
TOMMYSTEEL , HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL & TARTAN SNOW
TOMMYSTEEL
Is probably just the form horse here.
Won two Hunters last season in good style, one where it beat another runner here in HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL ( slightly favoured by the weights this time) after nearly unseating the rider two out, a cracking effort after what had happened…….and beat SOME LAD in the other.
This season it has had three runs already, it actually started off in a handicap chase against Brave Spartacus ( won yesterday)..tailed off over a trip far too short & needing the run.
Next time out it was back in a P2P against some good horses, again well beat but the form of that race is working out well….
Last time,after the benefit of those 2 runs… again in a P2P it beat a very decent horse in COQUET HEAD (a winner the time before)..making all & staying on well….. COQUET HEAD is a stable mate of HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL, so we have some idea of how the form is working out.
COQUET HEAD had beaten SOME LAD around 8L last season…..TOMMYSTEEL beat the same horse around 12L in a Hunter Chase. ……
HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL
It was actually odds on fav on its seasonal P2P debut, leading when falling mid race, last time out it was well beat, again against a decent horse in Sea Scout.
As above, it has already been beat by TOMMY STEEL , but is favoured by the weights here, but would have been beaten easier if TOMMY STEEL did not walk through the 2nd last.
I suspect that BOTH might prefer better ground though,
They both ran on the same P2P card last time, with HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL running in the much quicker race, albeit being well beat.
TARTAN SNOW
Not really sure that this is its trip, even though it was just touched off last time over 3m by SACRED MOUNTAIN …another stable mate of HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL… that race was run at a pedestrian pace & might find this a bit harder.
Just cant see anything else getting into it, unless something has improved on what it has shown lately.
There is not much between TOMMY STEEL & HIGHLAND CATHEDRAL , but everything points to TOMMYSTEEL just shading it…TS is usually a decent jumper, whereas HC often hits a one, that could make the difference,
T. Davidson rides again here, has ridden TS in its points & both its Hunter wins…not the most stylish it has to be said, but the horse runs for him.
Show More
I have it to these three and some basic predictions of winning chance.
Field chance view( blanks are less than 2% chance)
Runner Chance
Back On The Road 6.63
Red Kingdom 20.46
Tartan Snow 38.58
Tommysteel 13.87
Highland Cathedral 22.58
Ocarina 3.99
Supreme Builder 2.36
Waterski 0.00
| 5:25 | Chance |
| Tartan Snow | 39% |
| Highland Cathedral | 23% |
| Red Kingdom | 20% |
Field chance view( blanks are less than 2% chance)
Runner Chance
Back On The Road 6.63
Red Kingdom 20.46
Tartan Snow 38.58
Tommysteel 13.87
Highland Cathedral 22.58
Ocarina 3.99
Supreme Builder 2.36
Waterski 0.00
In view of the prices, the tissue is pretty tight and only profitable value
would be red kingdom win and place (15.3)irrespective of the outcome, worse in value would be Tommy steel at
14% chance and "cut in" by exchange layers at (4.04)
Also Tommy steel prefers good ground and the soft going makes him a great lay prospect unless he drifts like a barge!
would be red kingdom win and place (15.3)irrespective of the outcome, worse in value would be Tommy steel at
14% chance and "cut in" by exchange layers at (4.04)
Also Tommy steel prefers good ground and the soft going makes him a great lay prospect unless he drifts like a barge!
Here's my view of the race.
As Koi says it's a three horse race(Red Kingdom will not get the trip around here)
However I think Tartan Snow should win this.He's had a couple of runs & was bt last time by Sacred Mountain,who in my opinion is a better horse(when right than Highland Cathedral,both Waltons)In fact when Sacred Mountain is right he's a decent animal so to get as close as it did last time Tartan Snow put up a fair performance.Highland Cathedrals latest run was very disappointing.It may have been a fair time but it was a Ladies race where they only carry eleven stone.
As for Tommy Steele it only won a members race last time & Victors horses aren't firing yet this year.
As Koi says it's a three horse race(Red Kingdom will not get the trip around here)
However I think Tartan Snow should win this.He's had a couple of runs & was bt last time by Sacred Mountain,who in my opinion is a better horse(when right than Highland Cathedral,both Waltons)In fact when Sacred Mountain is right he's a decent animal so to get as close as it did last time Tartan Snow put up a fair performance.Highland Cathedrals latest run was very disappointing.It may have been a fair time but it was a Ladies race where they only carry eleven stone.
As for Tommy Steele it only won a members race last time & Victors horses aren't firing yet this year.
Thanks for the preview koi, very interesting as always. Thanks for your comments allpoints. Gives me something to think about later. Good luck lads.
Well done winners.
However it appears someone has blotted their copybook.......
||% chance
Total: 108.47%
However it appears someone has blotted their copybook.......
||% chance
| 6.63 |
| 20.46 |
| 38.58 |
| 13.87 |
| 22.58 |
| 3.99 |
| 2.36 |
| 0.00 |
Total: 108.47%
top2,
I noticed that early this morning, but, didn't highlight the issue for fear of a torrent of posts from bf. He must have an issue with one of his formulas in Excel, no doubt he will tell us what the issue is and how he will fix it.
Well done bf for flagging up the winner.
I noticed that early this morning, but, didn't highlight the issue for fear of a torrent of posts from bf. He must have an issue with one of his formulas in Excel, no doubt he will tell us what the issue is and how he will fix it.
Well done bf for flagging up the winner.
Who is the best Hunter chase man? Kohaku or Koikeeper.
Where is Kohaku now?
Knew the score on point to points? Or is Koi the same?
Knew the score on point to points? Or is Koi the same?
At one point last year he was 180 pts up. He put up 2 horses for a forecast
they finished 1st and 2nd at 14s and 16s the forecast paid plenty.
they finished 1st and 2nd at 14s and 16s the forecast paid plenty.
By: This user is offline. kohaku Date Joined: 15 Jun 01
Add contact | Send message When: 06 Apr 10 21:49 Joined: Date Joined: 15 Jun 01 | Topic/replies: 1,980 | Blogger: kohaku's blog
Ive got to be careful about anything I say ..Got private messages from Weatherbys on JFF
They were not pleased with me.
Add contact | Send message When: 06 Apr 10 21:49 Joined: Date Joined: 15 Jun 01 | Topic/replies: 1,980 | Blogger: kohaku's blog
Ive got to be careful about anything I say ..Got private messages from Weatherbys on JFF
They were not pleased with me.
Kohaku still posts, but not on here..the reason is obvious!
Ive only been following them for about 4yrs.
Remember once kohaku put up a horse at muss,forget the name,began with B ,but it won at 50's.thought i better start watching for them.many many at great prices.
Last big winner was the foxhunter cappa bleu.think he told us when he was on at 12
I look on the other forum,but someone said he's packed up.
Remember once kohaku put up a horse at muss,forget the name,began with B ,but it won at 50's.thought i better start watching for them.many many at great prices.
Last big winner was the foxhunter cappa bleu.think he told us when he was on at 12
I look on the other forum,but someone said he's packed up.
koi, I thought he had packed in, can you please inform where he posts.
seaview
I suspect the horse beginning with B was the grey Belem Ranger in 2008. I remember being at Musselburgh for that race. It hadn't done much over regulation fences before that but managed a couple of wins after that and ran passably well at Aintree.
RN
I suspect the horse beginning with B was the grey Belem Ranger in 2008. I remember being at Musselburgh for that race. It hadn't done much over regulation fences before that but managed a couple of wins after that and ran passably well at Aintree.
RN
Dont want to post it on here as to where he posts now.....he still looks in here & I suppose he will post if he wants to.
RN.
Thanks.yes that was the one.
didnt do much after that either.Must have been pretty poor opposition at muss for him to think that had a fair chance.probably had a little bit of form somewhere.
Thanks.yes that was the one.
didnt do much after that either.Must have been pretty poor opposition at muss for him to think that had a fair chance.probably had a little bit of form somewhere.
koi, if kohaku still posts somewhere surely he would like to be read
otherwise why post?
otherwise why post?
Thanks lads
However why I've come back on here is to answer a couple of your questions.
Kohaku stopped posting on here because of the grief he was getting.He's getting on a bit & his wife wasn't in the best of health & he was a full time carer for her.He had plenty on his plate without getting grief on here.He still posts on Jumping For Fun where there's no hassle.We all give our opinions on there without the stupid snide remarks which are given out here.Of course we have our fallouts but there's not the slanging that there is on here.
As for Belem Ranger,he wasn't a bad horse upto 2ml 5f but he was struggling after that although he could get an easy 3ml.Since he retired he's gone into Hunter Trials or something like that & he's won a couple of those.
However why I've come back on here is to answer a couple of your questions.
Kohaku stopped posting on here because of the grief he was getting.He's getting on a bit & his wife wasn't in the best of health & he was a full time carer for her.He had plenty on his plate without getting grief on here.He still posts on Jumping For Fun where there's no hassle.We all give our opinions on there without the stupid snide remarks which are given out here.Of course we have our fallouts but there's not the slanging that there is on here.
As for Belem Ranger,he wasn't a bad horse upto 2ml 5f but he was struggling after that although he could get an easy 3ml.Since he retired he's gone into Hunter Trials or something like that & he's won a couple of those.
Great write up by the OP and allpoints and tartan snow got the race this time and at my forecast 39% and
the odds it was actually profitable but had the going of been better then KoiKeepers choice would
of run a much better race.
In respect of my percentages not adding up to 100% and sometimes I get slightly more well i am
fully aware of this as the formula needs debugging and its early days with this type of chance representation
and the work that all form guys do using any methods is immense and I will admit that Koi keeper is far far
better than me at Hunter chase races as I am but a novice and I have a lot to learn...
the odds it was actually profitable but had the going of been better then KoiKeepers choice would
of run a much better race.
In respect of my percentages not adding up to 100% and sometimes I get slightly more well i am
fully aware of this as the formula needs debugging and its early days with this type of chance representation
and the work that all form guys do using any methods is immense and I will admit that Koi keeper is far far
better than me at Hunter chase races as I am but a novice and I have a lot to learn...
Seaview I remember that one that Kohaku gave at 50's,I had it at 64 on here,still my biggest winner on here(I think)it was amazing,Kohaku was giving great tips and was probably 100+ points up and still the forum clowns managed to get rid of him.
BIG GURU, kohaku was a good judge of hunter chases but he went down the pay per view
route and although at first in that medium he did put up a good show, health problems
with both his wife and himself seem to make him neglect his hunter chase commitments
and towards of 2011 season his selections always seemed to get turned over.
route and although at first in that medium he did put up a good show, health problems
with both his wife and himself seem to make him neglect his hunter chase commitments
and towards of 2011 season his selections always seemed to get turned over.
Can't remember the PPV thing I do remember him being hounded,no-one can consistently get it right.
It seems whatever happens on here there are those that will have a go....
Put up a fav & it wins....slated for putting up a fav.....even though the majority have no idea about P2P/Hunter chase form.
Put up a fav & it loses... slated for putting up a loser
Put up a loser at any price, slated because its beat..
its the nature of the beast!
Put up a fav & it wins....slated for putting up a fav.....even though the majority have no idea about P2P/Hunter chase form.
Put up a fav & it loses... slated for putting up a loser
Put up a loser at any price, slated because its beat..
its the nature of the beast!
Its best to be thick skinned if posting your picks as all forums will have the full spectrum of
personalities contained and on days that you might make a loss the odds of someone posting in search of emotional feedback
which is irrelevant in the real world of gambling as opposed to the clinical long term progression of profit comments
go up ten fold.
I will say one thing and that is I love the aspect of not only penetrating the weakness of Books accuracies
but sometimes running a muck with the wonderful odds on offer at all betting arenas.
personalities contained and on days that you might make a loss the odds of someone posting in search of emotional feedback
which is irrelevant in the real world of gambling as opposed to the clinical long term progression of profit comments
go up ten fold.
I will say one thing and that is I love the aspect of not only penetrating the weakness of Books accuracies
but sometimes running a muck with the wonderful odds on offer at all betting arenas.
well when you put one up at any price we,ll decide,
I have yet to see 1TP put up anything with any logic/reasoning behind it.....maybe because he has no idea of horse racing...
Different story when he is starting meaningless thread ...always having a go at something/someone...its all negativity with him...
Different story when he is starting meaningless thread ...always having a go at something/someone...its all negativity with him...
BIG GURU kohaku was a guy who took profits, if he was confident his selection would run
a race and at some time or another would show he always had two lays in one to recover
his stake and another at a shorter price to show all green, he was and probably a master at this.
a race and at some time or another would show he always had two lays in one to recover
his stake and another at a shorter price to show all green, he was and probably a master at this.
KK I have decided not to post on your threads anymore as I hold the same respect for you as top3man
who is also brilliant at rating the NH and good luck at the forth coming festival
who is also brilliant at rating the NH and good luck at the forth coming festival
thats a forum negative ,positive,if its all the same either way it dont work,
you obviously fancy yourself as a good judge with something to offer hence the reason you post ,so even you must admit your on a dreadful run at the prices you play at
you obviously fancy yourself as a good judge with something to offer hence the reason you post ,so even you must admit your on a dreadful run at the prices you play at
1st time poster 03 Mar 13 13:12
well when you put one up at any price we,ll decide
Dont need you to decide anything...I put up what I think will win, regardless of price, but like I said..you are all negativity, so it stands to reason that there is going to be a post from you regardless!
well when you put one up at any price we,ll decide
Dont need you to decide anything...I put up what I think will win, regardless of price, but like I said..you are all negativity, so it stands to reason that there is going to be a post from you regardless!
1st time poster 03 Mar 13 13:18
thats a forum negative ,positive,if its all the same either way it dont work,
you obviously fancy yourself as a good judge with something to offer hence the reason you post ,so even you must admit your on a dreadful run at the prices you play at
still over £1000 up at level stakes...still 4 month to go...
thats a forum negative ,positive,if its all the same either way it dont work,
you obviously fancy yourself as a good judge with something to offer hence the reason you post ,so even you must admit your on a dreadful run at the prices you play at
still over £1000 up at level stakes...still 4 month to go...
koi, that is what counts and you are 10 pts to the good a sound achievement.
Most unusual that the 2 most informative posters on hunter chases are named kohaku and koikeeper....is it a coincidence that a kohaku is a breed of koi ??
Is there a connection between these two experts ?
Is there a connection between these two experts ?
miprixabloater
Same happened last season, with results you couldnt predict in jan/feb....soon picked up though..I think it was 13-13 straight wins around march/april
Same happened last season, with results you couldnt predict in jan/feb....soon picked up though..I think it was 13-13 straight wins around march/april
koi, I know for a fact that kohaku never missed going to ptp within a
100 miles or so radius of where he lived in Cornwall, do you do the same.?
100 miles or so radius of where he lived in Cornwall, do you do the same.?
The biggest factor that affects horses runs and market return variables is
also the most over-looked and it affects all outdoor sports.
Seasonal effects!
Its reason why say in the peak of the turf season when the ground is drying up
that you have the smallest average returned prices and in October as the turf game winds down that you have the largest
returning prices.
also the most over-looked and it affects all outdoor sports.
Seasonal effects!
Its reason why say in the peak of the turf season when the ground is drying up
that you have the smallest average returned prices and in October as the turf game winds down that you have the largest
returning prices.
mip, no mate, just havent got the time, but do keep on top of all the form.
koi, you are doing well then, keep up the good work.
Agreed koi. Win or lose, always find your analysis an interesting read.
I ment DR Gonzo that I wont be posting my view of the race on others threads as I have
come to the conclusion that if I am not at a point of creating my own threads then why
dish out my stuff on other members threads in terms of ratings when all it does
is cloud each individual threads worth, its a matter of respect so Dr Gonzo you
might be out of your depth on this one, though I do like your humor on the whole
come to the conclusion that if I am not at a point of creating my own threads then why
dish out my stuff on other members threads in terms of ratings when all it does
is cloud each individual threads worth, its a matter of respect so Dr Gonzo you
might be out of your depth on this one, though I do like your humor on the whole
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