How do the form book boys make it pay

What's the diff between form an it's record?

Am I slow have I missed something

^ It's HOW you 'Read' and interpret the FORM - xmoneyx

There is as much FORM written 'between the lines' - as there is printed in Black & White.

ANYBODY can read the BLACK & WHITE ....

Far, far, fewer can 'read' 'between the lines'..... properly, though.

re:
always been a big part of my selection criteria barney, a horses time of year, many moons a ago i read an article by whome i cannot remember, about a horse natural dynamo, they are all different, and all get fully charged once a year naturally.


and what would be the evolutionary basis for that?  Breeding perhaps... but it's not a panda is it!
Still, I will give it a go, you never know.  If it does turn out to be true, baggsy me the name "PandaProfits - the black and white answer to winning at horse racing".

a horse run 20 times won 3 times only all at  chepstow only three times it raced there all on heavy ground.
same horse beaten a length at huntingdon in good ground in better class race last time out.horse run three times at huntingdon beat other twice long way but was two years ago.
now running at kempton droping in grade what now.
1/record tells u it only wins at chepstow.wont win
2/form tells u it will run big race.

Good for you meepoor , also is it switched on , has it been fed recently , has the jock a liking for fast cars , will it jump round , etc etc

thx onlooker

Manxy this guy obviously puts a lot of work and data into his selections,I just found it another very interesting take on things and who knows he may just have cracked it,to me he is to be applauded,his selections yesterday were Act of Logistics won @14.5 on here his 2nd was Byroness in the 9.00 Kempers ?? don,t know how it got on.

where is he to be found barney

Won 13/8

Tipping winners also works the same as those horses that only perform at certain times of the year.
Tipsters go through patches where they can't go wrong.

It's just a matter of waiting for the way they work out winners to come good - for a time that is.

We frequently see it on here, some people seem to have a crystal ball.
Then suddenly the winners stop coming, and so do the tips.

Many horses are stopped (by trainers/jockeys/stable lads), many are juiced (trainers/owners) and many come to form or run appallingly
for random reasons as well.

The first 2 examples of 3rd party intervention is most often observed by betting pattens.

The BF market is a far greater guide to a horses chance than any form book analysis, especially in the bottom 80% classes of racing.

Your form study may still yield tiny profits at the top end of racing the rest is a complete waste of time FACT.

difficult to lay decent amount which raises a red flag

so the only way is to try to get horse a decent weight than back it accordingly

MullahOmar Joined: 12 May 10
Replies: 359 28 Feb 13 11:00   


Many horses are stopped (by trainers/jockeys/stable lads), many are juiced (trainers/owners) and many come to form or run appallingly
for random reasons as well.

The first 2 examples of 3rd party intervention is most often observed by betting pattens.

The BF market is a far greater guide to a horses chance than any form book analysis, especially in the bottom 80% classes of racing.

Your form study may still yield tiny profits at the top end of racing the rest is a complete waste of time FACT


The complete opposite FACT!!

Manxy am I allowed to put another site up on here,tho I,m surprised that no one else has said anything as it,s a very popular site.If it,s ok I,ll put it up hope the guys ok with me doing it.

pm it barney, bollox to the rest ov em.

MullahOmar
28 Feb 13 11:00
Joined:  12 May 10 | Topic/replies: 359 | Blogger: MullahOmar's blog

The BF market is a far greater guide to a horses chance than any form book analysis, especially in the bottom 80% classes of racing.

Your form study may still yield tiny profits at the top end of racing the rest is a complete waste of time FACT.


Utter rubbish as if you don't research every single race at all levels which has to be done with a computer

you wont know what the results of form and betting on exchanges can yield in the form of profits

and I can tell you because I do take the great time to research this that lower grade racing is as profitable

and as fair as the higher grade racing but my friend the harder the races are to work out then the harder one has to try

to find the profit a very simple equation but profound and relevant to any sports betting.

People wrongly assume that it must be easy to win money by betting and when they fail they assume that

the reason isn't the fact that they got it all wrong or didnt do any research but that racing must be fixed and certainly

this would be a classed as living in denial.

i think people inc. MullahO leap to the conclusion that every market move on the AW is inside info/stable money....there's plenty of that around but there are also many other forces on the Betfair market these days and these markets are easily affected...form boys will move the market too if the bookies make a rick

Quite true Duncan and well said...

"mixed messages" with the form today iyo

they make a Monkey out of you, especially Gibbons

bf, having spent 6 yrs playing the fool on here, i now have to start posting sensible stuff to show i'm not a complete looser (sic) ...i fear the horse may have bolted tho.

Actually Duncan you have always come across as the more astute pundit and

joking aside I am pretty sure you know what your doing to a high degree

bf looking forward to your chelt ratings each day

Will a rating star be born?

Form is still an important part even if your not in the know. Unraced or lightly raced animals that are fiddled with is another question but its important to understand form in order to see the gambled horses are capable of hen on a going day

Form is ever changing , and the trickery and skullduggery is ever strengthening , i feel the form book is becoming pretty redundant tbh

off course good prize money and blue type will stregthen the case but 90% of the dross requires only a dart

formbook is redundant for you, I will agree there are many ways to skin a cat.

Onlookers summary was pretty concise although mayhave looked condescending to someone who spends a few hours aday trying their best and still not making it pay,it is like he mentioned its a natural aptitude that 99% of punters will never have.Even at the lowest level on the aw the form is incredibly consistent for the ability of the horses running,when punters on here say they aren't machines i actually think they are as near as you will get.Form is incredibly accurate especially when you're looking for value as regards prices,there's no doubt the proliferation with all these meetings has taken loads of betting opportunities away with so much uncompetitive racing.But there are always opportunities in all sorts of racing whether its turf/aw/nh and there always will be for a small %,also punters who think betting in better class races think they will do better.The value will nearly always be in bread n' butter racing so you're talking handicaps day in day out with horses probably rated between 65-90 books make far bigger mistakes on those rated handicaps,at that point most races become less value and more competitive.
As for group races i rarely bet in them unless i've got 2yr olds that i've got clocking decent times and 3yr olds similar and i never bet in older horse group races and very rarely touch the bigger meetings with big handicaps.There are so many more races with bigger ricks in the lesser races.

^ It's HOW you 'Read' and interpret the FORM - xmoneyx

There is as much FORM written 'between the lines' - as there is printed in Black & White.

ANYBODY can read the BLACK & WHITE ....

Far, far, fewer can 'read' 'between the lines'..... properly, though.

Lots of self appointed experts on this thread, telling us how good they are, ok lets put some of them
to the test

3.30 Doncaster saturday, lets have the jolly, the price of it, and the next two in the betting please ONLOOKER,
we'll soon find out if you have a clue or not

xmoneyx
28 Feb 13 18:17
Joined:  12 Jul 11 | Topic/replies: 7,606 | Blogger: xmoneyx's blog
bf looking forward to your chelt ratings each day

Will a rating star be born?

I will admit I am very temped to put up some ratings but I would have to spend a full week working on

converting my current formulations for the NH racing as I have altered everything completely to try and

get in the top ten of the AW contest of which I am bobbling around eitgh place currently.



I have given up the ghost with flat racing on considering more than 1 runner unless of course its a

bigger field and better odds which is what the NH at Chelts level would allow for.


I would like to push the boat out further and supply the best lays at the sub 8.0 price in races as

Cheltenham is a gold mine for layers...



I will attempt to study the top NH venues of the last 12 months worth of races and if all goes well based

on logical decisions and if the material is of possible value I will then consider some better informative

race cards with ratings for all runners in probable chance values and high lighted best lays and backs

but only if I know that I can produce a profit for members as I certainly don't want to lead folk down

the garden path and if I feel I cant make the grade I will shelve any attempt at providing ratings

for this most difficult of venues.

Ok bf fanactic, you're awake, go on then read the donny race, give us the first 3 in the betting, and the price
of the fav iyo Lets all have a laugh

How many hours a day do you put in ?

Who?

I put quite a lot of hours in but never enough to get everything done as the task list

for the implementation of ratings and formulas can go as large as your imagination

but as small as your limitations in resources and time being the greatest constraint.

I actually view everything I have created so far as just a useful experiment into

the study of race prediction and the real work will probably take another 12 months

as the learning curve is a long and shallow one that never levels out in a matter of

short months.

Just your average form junkie really

Im not including you bf , building a spaceship and nuclear fusion cannot be counted in your time btw

Bf fcuk all that horses-it, tell us what will be fav for the 3.30 donny sat, and what price
it will be, if you can't get that right, u haven't got a clue

thegiggilo comments to me look spot on and the plain fact is if you bet in a top flight race

it can be a closed shop for profit as take every race that Frankel raced in and you would

need to back Frankel big and no other "profit out" as even the place market for other runners was only ever playing

for 2nd and 3rd places for a third odds!

Clueless fcuker

Bf you really need to stop this mate , it will cause an overload somewhere , and you may find yourelf leaving the house with an axe one night screaming "im not taking it anymore "

ohyouknowdoya , I wish I could simply press a button that said 3.30 donny race, mark up please.

But its not that simple as a process would need to be started and that process for me to confirm

reasonable chance predictions would take some time and I am confused as too what you mean by what

will be favorite as this is not the purpose of rating a race unless you are an odds compiler

and they have to rely on averaging out over weeks to prove accuracy whereas a racing specialist is

far more precise at individual race level and they know it or why would they not take bets from proven winners?

If you even have a passing acquaintance with the formbook, it should be
obvious what will start fav, and if you have a clue how to read a race,
you should have a likely price, all the posters on here telling us how
good they are, yet no one has stepped forward

These aw cards rarely throw up many bets most days hello and like i said the cards are so uncompetitive i'm doing the card in 2 hours easily,but i'm always 2 days in advance to give me more chance of getting a price.I think i read somewhere that someone spends an hour or three hours on a race,absolutely craziness if you don't know the horses well enough to be able to nearly do any race within 1/2-3/4 an hour you really havn't got to grips with form.If races were taking me that long i know i should be looking at something else.

ohyouknowdoya   

I will respond to you - as I have just returned to thread.

As giggilo pointed out earlier ... The best bets are NOT always in the Best Races.

As for stipulating one race, on Saturday, as your emotive challenge.

There are 41 different RACES on Saturday  - and I, like many others, will NOT be trying to 'turn a Profit' on the day - on just ONE race.

There are also, as you will acknowledge - 7 days in the week, and 52 weeks in the year ....

- and PATIENCE is a virtue, too.

just had very quick look at saturdays race,and to me any way its clear that now aim to prosper is stepping up in trip he will be well in here on flat form, well actually thrown in but he did take to hurdles late but there is no doubt he needs this distance and   being paul nichols trained will start a warm fav, he will more than likely be around the 11/4 mark with the vibes being he cant be beat but his doncaster form might let him stay out at same mark although i think he might go shorter for a period. thats my guess and was quick look only.

There'e no emotive challenge ffs, just amusing reading all the implied experts,it's simple if you have a clue what
you are talking about, it should be transparent to you what will start fav, and the likely tissue price.
Nothing to do with best prices, if you can read form as you proclaim, it should be easy, pm me if you prefer.
Example if you have it a 3/1 shot, and books go 5s, well you got yourself some value

Class mepoor, good read, short tripped em, on wrong ground, got 124, 3mile plus gd ground, chucked in
was my read, tissue 5/2,

Hav'nt looked a sticks race for 6 years!

In respect of the Cheltenham festival I can produce the results of looking at 75 Cheltenham races

that start off with the 2012 Festival and using my latest carnation that gives me a broad but pretty

accurate rating for the chance of nearly every runner in the race and it proves very accurate

at this top venue and much more accurate than the markets as proven by the returns from the

top 2 rated for every race!

the figures in the ratings columns are the predicted chances of the runners, top rated being the best

and 2nd rated the 2nd best chanced runner in the race!


Also note the top chart that shows the averages for predicted chances and compare it with the average strike rate

and is of an accuracy that puts odds compliers to shame and thankfully helps puts good money in punters pockets via there

arrogant attitude that punters cant and shouldn't prosper from there chalk marks.


Cheltenham 75 races stating with 2012 Festival

Rank	Ran	Win	Stike Rate	Points Profit	Place ret	AvBsp	Predicted Strike Rate
1	75	21	28.00	+88.42	2.81	7.78	27.52
2	75	16	21.33	+94.48	29.06	10.59	20.18

		Ran	150.00	150.00
		Won	37.00	68.00
		SR%	24.67	45.33
Combined rating
		P/L	+182.90	31.87
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Trifolium37 p	27	3	-1	3.54
Steps To Freedom123 t	14	14	-1	-1
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Sprinter Sacre25	31	1	1.82	1.36
Al Ferof52	31	4	-1	-1
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
The Package493	31	4	-1	4.66
Hold On Julio66	16	10	-1	-1
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Zaidpour24	25	8	-1	-1
Hurricane Fly44	19	3	-1	1.18
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Maljimar175	30	7	-1	-1
Garde Champetre37	26	14	-1	-1
4:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Quevega313	29	1	1.61	1.28
Violin Davis52 t	24	15	-1	-1
5:15  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Harpsy Cord24	23	9	-1	-1
White Star Line75	14	2	-1	4.76
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Lively Baron19 b	20	9	-1	-1
Daffern Seal203	20	6	-1	-1
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Simonsig28	27	1	3.31	1.63
Monksland66	21	3	-1	2.66
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Grands Crus79 t	27	4	-1	-1
Bobs Worth25	26	1	5.7	1.87
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Sizing Europe38	27	2	-1	1.2
Finian´s Rainbow53	21	1	5.9	1.91
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Silverhand230	20	4	-1	2.78
Featherbed Lane25	6	24	-1	-1
4:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Gorgeous Sixty31	19	19	-1	-1
Une Artiste18	11	1	55.32	10.44
5:15  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Clonbanan Lad32	42	12	-1	-1
Champagne Fever52	24	1	22.54	5.71
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Sir Des Champs47	35	1	4.7	1.78
Cristal Bonus19	17	9	-1	-1
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Pettifour61 b1	18	17	-1	-1
Pineau De Re39	18	14	-1	-1
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Riverside Theatre26	29	1	4.39	2.02
Rubi Light26	22	5	-1	-1
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Big Buck´s47	40	1	1.87	1.23
Voler La Vedette49 t	11	2	-1	5.1
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Hector´s Choice19	14	17	-1	-1
Salut Flo96	13	1	5.98	2.09
4:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Benbane Head26 t	14	9	-1	-1
Mostly Bob74 t	14	15	-1	-1
1:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Countrywide Flame33	17	1	46	9.9
Balder Succes27	16	17	-1	-1
2:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Alderwood33	23	1	30	7.01
Moon Dice78	21	24	-1	-1
2:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Ipsos Du Berlais62	22	19	-1	-1
Brindisi Breeze27	17	1	9	3
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Long Run28	25	3	-1	1.47
Synchronised79	16	1	10.35	3.19
4:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Rowdy Rampage224	23	22	-1	-1
Roulez Cool657	14	21	-1	-1
4:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
I´msingingtheblues27 t	19	18	-1	-1
Street Entertainer57 t	18	24	-1	-1
5:15  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Kid Cassidy48	23	12	-1	-1
Eradicate72	18	14	-1	-1
2:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Jimbill36	31	4	-1	-1
Captain Sunshine32	22	1	8.22	2.39
2:35 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Ballyfoy32 b	17	1	9.97	2.5
River D´Or15	14	6	-1	-1
3:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Minella Class53	31	10	-1	-1
Raslan158 tb	27	8	-1	-1
3:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Hector´s Choice34	39	1	4.99	2.26
Aerial46	37	2	-1	1.69
4:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Water Garden60 p	23	2	-1	2.04
Benbens46	18	6	-1	-1
4:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Frascati Park53	38	4	-1	-1
Duke Of Lucca25 t	32	1	2.48	1.47
5:30  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Star In Flight28	25	5	-1	-1
Teshali18 t	17	2	-1	3.07
2:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Une Artiste36	38	1	3	1.19
Swincombe Flame37	31	2	-1	1.15
2:35 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Qaspal30	28	6	-1	-1
Arctic Ben29	28	2	-1	2.29
3:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Lady Karabaya26	23	7	-1	-1
Kells Belle37	20	1	10	2.84
3:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bradley12	31	2	-1	1.69
Exmoor Ranger35 p	23	5	-1	-1
4:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Michel Le Bon54	33	1	12.5	2.69
Golan Way36	28	3	-1	2.34
4:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
That´s The Deal12	36	4	-1	2.31
Wester Ross12 v	34	5	-1	-1
5:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Pistolet Noir24	33	8	-1	-1
Rash Move17P	24	1	7.05	2.24
5:35 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Gort Na Lea17P	25	7	-1	-1
Bleuvito8 p	16	4	-1	-1
6:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
The General Lee17P	31	8	-1	-1
Rumbury Grey15	19	4	-1	-1
6:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Upton Springs11P b	32	pu	-1	-1
Rathcor25P	23	4	-1	-1
7:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bradley13	33	1	1.98	1.38
Keenan´s Future20 p	31	F	-1	-1
7:50 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Dear Villez11P	36	5	-1	-1
Mid Div And Creep68 t	22	6	-1	-1
8:20  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Herons Well20 p	37	3	-1	1.34
Silver Adonis20 b	19	1	9.45	2.38
2:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
The New One	29	1	2.01	1.28
Village Vic	24	2	-1	2.14
2:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Go All The Way	24	F	-1	-1
King Of The Night	21	3	-1	-1
3:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Heaney	26	3	-1	1.88
American Spin	18	7	-1	-1
3:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Sire Collonges	22	1	5.76	1.81
Benheir	14	pu	-1	-1
4:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Falcarragh	37	4	-1	-1
Court Minstrel	18	1	7.6	2.48
5:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Wide Receiver	33	16	-1	-1
Graduation Night	21	4	-1	3.16
5:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Dreambrook Lady	25	16	-1	-1
Dark Lover	13	1	5.7	2.33
2:00 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Minella For Value	35	6	-1	-1
Brass Tax	15	5	-1	-1
2:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Rebel Du Maquis	19	11	-1	-1
Idarah	16	13	-1	-1
3:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Baby Mix	33	3	-1	-1
Dodging Bullets	31	1	2.02	1.35
4:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Rolling Aces	11	4	-1	2.51
Queiros Bleu	9	3	-1	6.41
3:40 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Exmoor Ranger	15	7	-1	-1
Bradley	11	4	-1	2.67
4:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Peckhamecho	33	3	-1	1.57
Third Intention	29	2	-1	1.47
5:30  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Southfield Theatre	13	1	2.72	1.58
Sizing Jo'Burg	5	8	-1	-1
12:15 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Super Duty	33	1	3.49	1.77
Broadbackbob	28	4	-1	-1
12:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Plein Pouvoir	17	1	17.61	4.48
Red Rouble	14	2	-1	3.5
1:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Hawkhill	22	16	-1	-1
Dan Breen	15	3	-1	4.2
1:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Bradley	28	5	-1	-1
Crash	22	6	-1	-1
2:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Uncle Junior	20	10	-1	-1
Arabella Boy	19	11	-1	-1
3:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Buachaill Alainn	17	10	-1	-1
Monetary Fund	15	7	-1	-1
3:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Village Vic	26	6	-1	-1
Royal Boy	26	2	-1	2.48
12:10 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Far West	47	1	1.25	1.04
Handazan	19	2	-1	-1
12:45 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Highland Lodge	16	1	3.2	1.58
What A Warrior	13	4	-1	-1
1:20 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Garynella	34	3	-1	-1
Oh Crick	27	7	-1	-1
1:55 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Ardkilly Witness	41	7	-1	-1
Aerial	22	2	-1	1.95
2:30 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Cristal Bonus	21	12	-1	-1
Golden Chieftain	18	3	-1	4.83
3:05 »  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Rock On Ruby	32	3	-1	-1
Zarkandar	31	1	2.17	1.32
3:40  Cheltenham	points	Result	Pl/s	place
Oscar Whisky	53	1	1.24	1.05
Crack Away Jack	27	2	-1	-1

You need a check up, from the neck up. bf.

The only filter that was applied was to throw out all horses over 60 points at exchange odds!

What the fcuk are you on about, are you i'll, is this bloke a nutter

I have had check ups from the neck up and an iq that rages between 142-150 is quite ok and of a scientific level

so I am not just your average genius as I rate myself a little higher

I reckon your iq does rage, and quite frequently too

in fact if you add my iq to ohyouknowdoya and average it out you hit the national average, pretty amazing coincidence but worrying still..

ohyouknowdoya, do you still want the predictions for top 3 say for 3:30 Doncaster Saturday?

Oh dear, I'm bored with you now bf. Onlooker do you agree with tissue price for Aim, and the read?
Please let us have your view, as a form expert of course

ohyouknowdoya, do you still want the predictions for top 3 say for 3:30 Doncaster Saturday?

Go on then, but you need to stick the tissue price up for each of the 3 horses

Give me ten minutes then if you dont mind waiting that is

Mepoor, I sent you a pm relating to the donny race, did u get it?.

10 mins?

That is the biggest load of 5hit I have EVER read. Talk about aftertiming

Cheltenham 75 races stating with 2012 Festival

    Rank            Ran            Win            Stike Rate            Points Profit             Place ret            AvBsp            Predicted Strike Rate   
    1            75            21            28.00            +88.42            2.81            7.78            27.52   
    2            75            16            21.33            +94.48            29.06            10.59            20.18   



Talking about this btw

FFS not again , please god when will this end

What the fcuks going on here

3:30 »	points	Tissue
The Romford Pele	21	4/1
Katkeau	19
Barafundle	17	5/1

And it's good night from me.

One more set of boxes and im consulting a lawyer

Back Aim to prosper at your own risk as its a plant

for one thing its not rated low and weighted low in this race for nothing

and for another it wont probably stay the trip at its a sub 8 % chance!


Will make a few quick for chalkers though as the public wear rose coloured lenses.

ohyouknowdoya
01 Mar 13 00:26
Joined:
05 May 12
| Topic/replies: 210 | Blogger: ohyouknowdoya's blog
LaughLaugh And it's good night from me.


ffs  another mouthy knows it all 2012er, where the feck do they all appear from, was 2012 a vintage mmuppit year or what.

The only reason that horse is running is either as a pipe blower for Chelts and/or to put a duck egg on its
form to increase its odds in a better race..

hes ok manky, a bit gobby and stupid but an improvement on GTG

I ment ohyouknowdoya by the by and 2012 must of watered down the sawdust with the incehes of rain around.

18th February 2013, 5:31 PM
light burst 13/2 hills!

18th February 2013, 5:44 PM

Join Date: May 2011 Light burst improved dramatically as the 2012 season went on,winning by 8ls on the flat winning at wolves over 7fs then last two runs looking at the limits of his mark third to kingscroft and over the 7fs at wolves then beaten over a mile at kempton.His poly form looks as good as anything in this race but the most interesting thing has to be his pedigree out of hard spun top class poly and dirt performer with the dam out of seattle slew.He could be open to even more improvenment on this surface and even if he doesn't improve he should go on it and 13/2 would still be a fair price on the poly form.The trainers already won today with mubtadi and the same jock thomas brown he takes off 5 pound tomorrow taking him down to just 75.I experct him to be backed at these prices as i don't see how he could be bigger than 7/2 tops!
If he doesn't go on the surface then picenos run here off 75 behind fayr hall off tomorrows mark of 75 looks good and in a decent time of 1m.27.76 he could well lead and make all if light burst doesn't show!!

WON SP 2/1


, 6:35 PM sulis minerva 12/1 PPOWER

19th February 2013, 7:01 PM Not a horse i've really backed as habitual slow starter and only because of the price 12/1 looks a nice trade,the fav stands out with improvement to come and been franked by horses from light from mars race.Two others o'gormans run behind noverre to go only 14 lifetime runs and still open to improvement the other would be sulis minerva the bigger priced in comparison.Sulis minerva herself has been an improver this sesson on the aw 4th to swiss cross off 85,3rd to piscean off 85 and 4th to farmliegh house off 86 if she hadn't been dropped a pound since that run wouldv'e been unable to run in this race.
Has won over this c/d off 80 last seasson by an easy 3ls in respectable time but as mentioned improved this season,i wouldn't rely on her as she misses the break to often getting to far behind but won't go off 12/1 she looks a 7/1 shot to me in this drop in grade!

3RD 10/1

Teds brother 9/1 365 8/1 victor!!

20th February 2013, 6:01 PM  Don't know if teds brother can win this race as it does look wide open but he ran a very encouraging race after 4 months off last run was in october then ran over tomorrows c/d on 14th of feb.He travelled really well and was still running on although admittedly not as much as first thought and finished 3/4l behind jake the snake has a 3 pound pull for that run jake the snake priced up at 3/1.He has also never run well after a break and this was only his second lifetime run on the aw so there's a couple more positives,he could still be open to More improvement on this surface.H e won 4 races on the turf in 2011 the last off 72 tomorrow he's off 63 with philip princev taking another 7 pound off.He actually looks one to follow for the turf as well on this run as didn't shhow a great deal ladt season.I cannot see him going unbacked in this race and at 3x the price of jake the snake looks overpriced,could well out run his prices.

UNPLACED 5/1




  powerful pierre 10/1 365!!

21st February 2013, 5:46 PM


A race full of dodgepots and nothing in here i would like to back at short prices,powerful pierre has a poor strike rate but may have been a winner without a penalty from last run.Scrubbed along for most of the race then entering the final furlong picking up looking like he may have been coming to win the race hampered so badly was almost pulled up.He had blinkers on that day,hadn't worn them for last 6 runs but last two wins have come with them on. I wouldn't rely on him repeating the form at lingfield i think wolves would be more preferable with running style,but was unlucky last time out is on a good mark won off 63 in april beating black cadillac and will undoubtedy be backed after that eye catching run.I will fiollow him for a couple of ruins as long as he keeps going off double figure prices.!!

4TH 8/1

5:45 PM my son max 13/2 victor

22nd February 2013, 5:57 PM Strictly on collateral form my son max has a little to find with picansort and diamond charlie but was badly hampered through those formlines with moorhouse lad and bubbly ballerina.Was cantering in that race from the 6th of december and wouldv'e won 2-3ls so the formlines are slightly misleading which makes the 13/2 value,the time of the race that day was very good as well 57.68 and my son max still looks an improver with just 8 runs on the aw and 2 wins.Will probably go off nearer 4/1 9/2 tops!

4TH 7/2 Shouldv'e sluiced up.

Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:05 pm

Flashlight looks blindingly obvious although as you've probably noticed i rarely bet odds,it was second on last run last year to mar mar at doncaster, there was a nursery on the same day and flashlight ran quicker than the 83 rated winner of that race.If this opens 1/2 or better its worth a bet,the only negative i can see is no aw pedigree,looks a 1/10 shot on the donny form!

Sent: Monday, 25 February 2013, 10:49

flashlight 1.46/ 1.47 on betfair!

won 1/3

Tue Feb 26, 2013 7:51 pm

Have backed gabbiano at 15/2 already but prices have gone only 7/2 now the value has gone maybe bigger on betfair tomorrow,i was always going to back sole danser as well and with gabbiano so heavily backed its now a very big price.Last season was drawn 12 when pushed wider over tomorrows c/d in a better race than this off 72,was hacking along hampered then hampered again when running on to come home a winner without a penalty.Made seasonal debut at wolves over 6fs behind seek the fairland in better race than this finishing second,then two disappointing runs one over an inadequate 5fs and the other over 6fs at lingfield.All his best form is going right handed as mentioned the race when 4th off 72 at kempton,previous to that was 5th to mizwaaj in another decent race off 73 different class race to tomorrows,also his other two runs at the track was first and second.If he repeats the kempton run would be fav for this race,the 8/1 and 7/1 looks very generous at his favourite track with graham lee riding.
Gabbiano looks glaringly obvious after last run,badly hampered and then not getting a run late on behind temple road finished full of running and tomorrow with robert tart taking off 7 pound and been dropped another pound can get to run off 65 also has big weight pulls with alnoomas and fortrose academy from previous form.Trainer jeremy gask also in form as mentioned all value gone now at 7/2 especially for a horse that does have his quirks!

N/R SOLE DANSER
WON 7/2 GABBIANO

Drited on betfair to at least 6s the next day!

My last 7 bets hello all put up night beforewinners and losers as you can see its hard work trying to find hardly any bets on these cards.

bf_fananatic
01 Mar 13 00:39
Joined:
17 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 11,100 | Blogger: bf_fananatic's blog
hes ok manky, a bit gobby and stupid but an improvement on GTG Wink


gtg will be back when analogs daughter comes back, asthey are the same person, he used to post as ashigh punter.

Nice work gigollo i already knew you went through a lot of barrows tho

Nothing to do necessarily with the winners fella was just showing reasoning for picks even if some are not strong picks,showing how prices can still determine a bet.I was pretty certain the track would beat powerful pierre,shouldv'e got third but wouldn't have won but justified my thoughts that wolves it may have won,you then have to take in account 3 wins from 38 runs so i could never back it at less than 10/1.So now after those two decent runs will be probably 5/1 and i could not back it at that price it will almost definitely be overbet,just showing an angle of the way of looking at a race as a whole.

Hate to popping bubbles but the shorter price a runner is then the more sure you have to be of its winning chance to effectively win

far less money and so 1/3 runners aren't considered beef stake cuts but more like minced confidence offal in relation to finding winners

let alone profits!

You were getting 1.45 for decent money for a 1/10 shot,i back maybe 12 odds on shots a year thats how much value i see in them very little.But occasionally you get a gem like this,mainly because he had one turned over on the previous weekend he had 20 pounds in hand on the donny form,the others were complete slowboats.Like i said forget they won,its the explaination in the form that made them value thats what the threads about.

your talking mince

bf that was

I reckon my grand mother who was a bookie would beat most of you at working out real odds, fact!

21st January 2013, 9:46 AM 

Have backed monzino at 50s and 40s and 33s general now even  bigger on betfair maybe has the best form in the race but that was at swell last season winning off 60 then followed that up with third off 63.Actually had this ones of eddy a long way behind at swell when winning,today races off just 55 and 7 pound clasmier never heard of but has had two winners already.Seems to go on the surface last run here was 5th off 11 to satwa laird off 65 staying on at the finish in different class race to this.Has shown absolutely nothing since but 6/7 runs have been on turf where he's never had any form and running over all sorts of distances,plus he has no headgear first time since the win and third at swell.Enormous price if he were just to produce anywhere near that form.


WON SP 12/1

Had a bit more on at 40s!!

Big enough for you bf !

Just to change tack a wee bit anyone carrying the moniker of "expert" should carry a government health warning and be avoided at all costs a la banking/financial growth/economic/health/weather so on and so forth and come to think of it the government should carry the same health warning,anybody watch "Baves Bank" last night absolutely brilliant was Dave a few dozen or so more like him and we would never be in any crisis,now there,s a guy who deserves a knighthood.

Take a typical h/cap hurdle race with ten runners.

Around half way around five of them haven't gone a yard, half mile out and there might be three left with a chance.
Coming to the last it's usually between two, and neither of them much last time they ran, and the winner skips home.

So to conclude, it was a waste of time looking for the horses with the best form, because only a couple showed anything like their form.
The thing you should have been looking for, was which ones were likely to show their form on the day.

Without knowing that, the form is useless.

Without a knowledge of how and why trainers place their horses, you might as well use the form book as toilet paper.

ffs  another mouthy knows it all 2012er, where the feck do they all appear from, was 2012 a vintage mmuppit year or what

Just sorting out all the megalomaniacs on thread, the bull sh--ers, the clueless.
Been on here since 2003 Manxy a 7300 poster, couldn't read a race if it appeared in following days newspaper.

No reply from the onlooker eh, "very very few can read between the lines"

Dr Crippen clearly cant read form...at least these fellas are up front about it

thegiggilo , you have indeed found some nice priced winners and you along with many prove that its

not impossible to profit from the study of racing form, well done I say.

Dr Crippen     01 Mar 13 09:28
 
'..........
The thing you should have been looking for, was which ones were likely to show their form on the day.

Without knowing that, the form is useless.

Dr Crippen     01 Mar 13 09:31 

'Without a knowledge of how and why trainers place their horses -  you might as well use the form book as toilet paper.'

--------------------------

Dear Dr ....

Those two elements ARE 'part and parcel' of Form Study -

It's an all embracing appreciation of the whole potential scenario.

Especially the latter - which ISN'T written in "Black & White" -

But IS "Reading between the lines" ...

- for which ohyouknowdoya appears to be so keen to ridicule.

Dear oh dear onlooker, you present yourself through your posts, as the second coming.
As suspected you haven't go a clue have you, eh? you couldn't
price a race up to save your life. Couldn't spot value if it smacked you in
the mush, as for reading between the lines, god help ya.

ohyouknowdoya    -

Oh stop being so sarcastic and supercilious.

The latter being something that you are obviously accusing me of being...

When all you are doing is presenting the perfect example of the 'pot calling the kettle black'.

As for your assumptions about me - and that is ALL that they are - as you have, nor can have, ANY positive proof, whatsoever ...

Well, all I will say is - you could not be more wrong ... that being the politest way that I can reply.

Ffs I'm not been sarcastic or supercilious, I'm been honest. If you can't price a race up the day before,
can't spot value, can't spot a weak fav, how the hell can you back or lay anything. This place is nuts

You two seem to have similar correct views about reading races and yet are at loggerheads?

giggs  record is second to none, a brilliant judge

It's all smoke & mirrors

If you trust your own judgement, then of course you must have an idea of price/value. Most people would back a horse they fancied at 20-1 or 5-1. I remember some Dean Mckeown horses I fancied on form that I thought 6-1 was value, going off 5-1 a place. I knew then that they were no longer value! That's what you're up against.